Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 135.

FooDSt4mP

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

Quote from: MoonShadow on April 28, 2011, 07:40:27 PM

Quote from: FooDSt4mP on April 28, 2011, 07:35:52 PM

Now I can buy anything anywhere in the world without paying large currency conversion fees.

The end goal of Bitcoin is to enable you to buy anything anywhere in the world without currency conversion at all.

Focusing on the destination isn't as helpful as focusing on the path in front of you.

MoonShadow

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1010

Quote from: FooDSt4mP on April 28, 2011, 07:35:52 PM

Now I can buy anything anywhere in the world without paying large currency conversion fees.

The end goal of Bitcoin is to enable you to buy anything anywhere in the world without currency conversion at all.

FooDSt4mP

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

Quote from: bitcoinBull on April 28, 2011, 04:54:05 PM

Quote from: eMansipater on April 28, 2011, 04:03:04 PM

It's definitely a bubble, in the sense that people are buying based on learning about it and speculating, rather than any apparent economic surge. However.......if someone does decide to build something truly innovative on top of BitCoin that wasn't possible before, the current value will be left in the dust.

Two implicit presumptions are slipping by in this thesis. Here's why they're false: 1) The trading of bitcoin is the economic surge. Bitcoin will only be further integrated with the rest of the economy as a value storage and transfer system, not develop its own entire separate economy. 2). Bitcoin itself is the truly innovative system which was not possible before. Anything more is by extension. The services which will be built on top are comparatively straightforward.

Right... think international transactions:

Me
USD->BTC
Merchant
BTC->Local fiat

Now I can buy anything anywhere in the world without paying large currency conversion fees.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

1

bitcoinBull

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1001

rippleFanatic

Quote from: eMansipater on April 28, 2011, 04:03:04 PM

It's definitely a bubble, in the sense that people are buying based on learning about it and speculating, rather than any apparent economic surge. However.......if someone does decide to build something truly innovative on top of BitCoin that wasn't possible before, the current value will be left in the dust.

Two implicit presumptions are slipping by in this thesis. Here's why they're false: 1) The trading of bitcoin is the economic surge. Bitcoin will only be further integrated with the rest of the economy as a value storage and transfer system, not develop its own entire separate economy. 2). Bitcoin itself is the truly innovative system which was not possible before. Anything more is by extension. The services which will be built on top are comparatively straightforward.

MoonShadow

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1010

Quote from: eMansipater on April 28, 2011, 04:03:04 PM

Until then.......heisenbubble.

And a carrot.

eMansipater

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 273

A friend of mine coined an excellent term for the current surge: it's a heisenbubble.

It's definitely a bubble, in the sense that people are buying based on learning about it and speculating, rather than any apparent economic surge. However.......if someone does decide to build something truly innovative on top of BitCoin that wasn't possible before, the current value will be left in the dust. So it's uncertain if it's truly a bubble or not. Given the high rate of BitCoin influx from mining and the general impatience of speculators, it's mostly a matter of when exactly the breakthrough application of BitCoin arrives.

Until then.......heisenbubble.

fimp

sr. member

Activity: 304

Merit: 250

Quote from: BitterTea on April 28, 2011, 03:44:12 PM

The only thing you can say is that there is at MOST X BTC exchanged for goods and services each day, with X being equal to the total value of all transactions in that day's blocks.

Not even that. Bitcoins can change hands within wallet systems, i.e. I can send BTC to another Mt Gox account without a block chain transaction.

So goods and services trading in BTC could theoretically be higher than total value of all block chain transactions.

Current-C

full member

Activity: 124

Merit: 100

Whatever you call it I wouldn't say it's a bubble. The entire Bitcoin economy isn't even a blip on the radar yet, and while the price will likely swing wildly for a long time to come, if Bitcoin goes anywhere near mainstream these prices will be left in the dust. That said my suspicion is that this will soon attract (if it hasn't already) some professional traders that will be looking to manipulate the price down in order to accumulate. Look for a sharp dip that cuts the price dramatically, possibly accompanied by some awful rumor or attack on Mt. Gox or something. The weak hands will get shaken out of the market and we'll be primed for a huge rally. Just my 2 (bit)cents.

LZ

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1072

P2P Cryptocurrency

Quote from: Cheeseman on April 28, 2011, 02:11:23 PM

but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again.

I do not agree, the exchange rate may easily soar to $3 or even $5 and then level off at $2.6 or $4.4.

Quote from: ribuck on April 28, 2011, 01:40:35 PM

Quote from: bitcoinBull on April 28, 2011, 01:03:40 PM

Selling is just too risky.

Agreed. I have got it wrong every time that I have sold, and I have ended up buying back into Bitcoin at a higher price.

Absolutely agree. I remember how I sold bitcoins for $0.4, but the exchange rate then rised to $1. Undecided

BitterTea

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 252

Quote from: Cheeseman on April 28, 2011, 02:38:01 PM

And that may be part of the problem. There is no significant business in America/Europe that we can see. I can't see Silk Road or business from China/Russia contributing to much of the $50,000 per day volume we have been seeing traded daily. Hell, the market is too bubbly for money laundering imo. And this is just my opinion - I'm not claiming to have any omniscient powers.

How would you "see" business? That is, how would you know how many Bitcoins are being traded for goods and services each day? The only thing you can say is that there is at MOST X BTC exchanged for goods and services each day, with X being equal to the total value of all transactions in that day's blocks.

Trading volume has no inherent relation to monetary exchange volume.

bitcoinBull

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1001

rippleFanatic

Quote from: Cheeseman on April 28, 2011, 02:11:23 PM

I could understand if emerging and innovative services started appearing that drove the use of bitcoins, but prices are wildly out of control for no reason currently.

The way I see it, bitcoin itself is the innovative service. Value stored in bitcoin is more secure than any dot com, bank, or centralized authority vulnerable to fraud or the recent PSN-style penetration. It is unseizable, untaxable, and cheaper and more accessible than offshore accounts. Yes the value stored is speculation, but as we are seeing, with that risk also comes reward.

As long as bitcoins are liquid, the ability to buy goods with them directly has little extra benefit. Value storage is their main purpose and main business, bitcoin itself is the innovation, and services beyond exchanging are just extra icing.

I still share the concern about bubble formation, but the record strong volume (certainly in dollar terms if not bitcoins) seems to indicate a healthy market. However, it also seems that as experts are saying about silver, some consolidation would be healthy too.

Cheeseman

newbie

Activity: 23

Merit: 0

Quote from: MoonShadow on April 28, 2011, 02:21:44 PM

Quote from: Cheeseman on April 28, 2011, 02:11:23 PM

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate.

And you know this, how? Can you see the trade volume on Silk Road? In Russia? In China? Just because the visable market is small, doesn't mean that the trade volume is entirely speculation.

And that may be part of the problem. There is no significant business in America/Europe that we can see. I can't see Silk Road or business from China/Russia contributing to much of the $50,000 per day volume we have been seeing traded daily. Hell, the market is too bubbly for money laundering imo. And this is just my opinion - I'm not claiming to have any omniscient powers.

MoonShadow

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1010

Quote from: Cheeseman on April 28, 2011, 02:11:23 PM

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate.

And you know this, how? Can you see the trade volume on Silk Road? In Russia? In China? Just because the visable market is small, doesn't mean that the trade volume is entirely speculation.

Cheeseman

newbie

Activity: 23

Merit: 0

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate. I could understand if emerging and innovative services started appearing that drove the use of bitcoins, but prices are wildly out of control for no reason currently. Prices lately haven't even been corresponding to increases in difficulty (ie scarcity).

From a technical perspective, it appears that the bubble is not going to pop for some time. With very little resistance up until $3, we could see prices skyrocket again by this time next week.

ribuck

donator

Activity: 826

Merit: 1060

Quote from: bitcoinBull on April 28, 2011, 01:03:40 PM

Selling is just too risky.

Agreed. I have got it wrong every time that I have sold, and I have ended up buying back into Bitcoin at a higher price.

bitcoinBull

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1001

rippleFanatic

I have stopped daytrading/weektrading for the time being. Selling is just too risky.

2_Thumbs_Up

sr. member

Activity: 323

Merit: 251

I'm glad I managed to buy 600 BTC today before the rally at $1.9.

I'm not as glad that I still have more to buy with money that is coming in next week.

LZ

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1072

P2P Cryptocurrency

And it is probably just the beginning. Shocked

deadlizard

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 11

what the eff. $2 - $2.40 in a matter of seconds Shocked

Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 135. (Read 540250 times)