Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 61. (Read 540249 times)

Except the bottom of the pink channel is only connected to one real price point and the target point... that's like saying "we haven't hit the target, so we may still hit the target".

If I am understanding correctly, no, because price will remain in the pink channel and so there is probably room for more downside

So we bounced from 4.21 instead of from 4 and it was at 4.9 - breaking your red line at 4.64 - does that mean that we broke that down trend earlier?

I'm pretty happy with the subscription so far S3052 -- thanks for your service!

Again, Elliott wave theory has helped tremendously to anticipate the sell off over the past 48 hours.

Here is the chart posted to subscribers before the break down:



And here is the updated chart afterwards:




We are also announcing a special 3 for 2 winter promotion:


For 9.90 BTC, you will get 3 months of subscription
- for the price of less than 2 normal monthly fees. Just send an email to [email protected] and pay by Feb 16, midnight. You will get a dedicated BTC address from us.

brief update:

While still bullish mid and long term, the technical picture is deteriorating short term.
Some key trendlines are broken: see chart here http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/

There are two clear options.
1) Decline from current levels or
2) If 6.1 $ is broken: then Rally. but there is no need to be LONG until this has happened

Here is my (late) analysis of the current developments:



From a chart analystic point of view we are completing a neutral triangle with a strong underlying uptrend. The crucial points to indicate a break through or drop are 5.3$ and 5.8$. They have been tested multiple times in the past few days and become increasingly important as we head towards the end of the formation. My prediction is, that a break through, as my interpretation of elliot waves indicates, will happen in the following hours/days with some resistance around 6.5$, 7.0$ and of course, 7.2$.
A drop would be quite steep, because there are no real resistances in place (left alone those at 5.0$ and 4.8$) all the way down to 2$.
However, the moment I am posting this some convincing breaks of the 5.8$ resistance have been occurred already. Unfortunatly that  doesnt imply an immediate rise to higher grounds, because a large SELL wall at 6.07$ in place needs to be surmounted first. Whether this one is fake or not will be subject to speculation. Even if it is, the trader controlling it can withdraw- only to place it again at the next trend reversal, maybe around 7.2$ in order to perpetuate a downtrend.



The trading range WAS ( ) around 5.45 $ to 5.8 $; but can easily be revived if the herefore mentioned SELL wall will proof resistant against early attacks. In that case a fallback to 5.45 $ is likely.

Last but not least my opinion on the MaNiPuLaT0R!: ...
He exists and has a couple of friends, who play their muscels in order to decide with way the price will take on this cross road. We dont see their whole ressources at once and can be certain to expect sudden changes in their behaviour, as soon as, lets say the 5.3 $ support breaks and the one party trying to keep up the price decides that it would be more beneficial to partake in the coin dumping with their larger-than-dollar BTC-reserves, only to buy back at a cheaper rate.

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen!

The bid side is looking healthy!  The ask side, meanwhile, has a few big walls, and if they disappear, there's relatively little depth beyond them...

This is an excellent point.  It's a positive result of the dumper behaviour that I hadn't considered before.

With the threat of a 45k dump hanging over you, you have to be particularly wary of putting up fake "walls" that you never intend to be sold.  The depth chart seems to show that that is the case... no obvious bid walls are showing.

I suspect the same is going to soon be true on the ask side too.

In short: "manipulators" beware; you can't fight the market forever.

Oh shit, Blitzboom goes bullish again

I admit, I am impressed as well. There seems to be a lot of interest for acquiring Bitcoins, considering how the depth to 5 is regenerating for the second or third time (and fake depth is not an argument when there is the threat of someone dumping 45k unlimited), and it’s now grown stronger than before.

We are probably severely undervalued, but haven’t really noticed yet.

What will happen once the stream of dumpers dries up?

I agree with many of you. The technical strength of the bitcoin market has been impressive lately. I will analyse the market in depth today and provide short and mid term trading scenarios in today's weekly report.

Yes, it is quite surprising. I held off selling until it stalled at 5.84 and I'm glad I did. I was hoping to buy back much cheaper, almost certain it would drop substantially from panic finally setting in, but it hasn't happened yet. I'll wait a bit to see what unfolds, but instead of buying back substantially cheaper, I may just being buying back a little bit cheaper. This has been quite interesting.

Bitcoin price is showing strong resilience even in the face of major dumps and people calling for "down, down, down". There is no panic whatsoever. This is surprising even to me. It's very good for the overall confidence because there doesn't seem to be a reason for fears of a massive price drop at these prices. Time and time again these fears are proven to be unwarranted.

I have to say that I'm impressed. Keep doing what you're doing people, and we might have a relatively stable market some day. Compared to what we saw just 3-4 months ago, the market behaves very differently.

big surprise I'm thinking Up ... 6.30 in 5 weeks....

its not looking good for day traders,  the daily spread is going to get very narrow, and crazy price fluctuations are soon to be a thing of the past, we have the bitcoin economy to thank for this. its been growing in the background... now its effecting price by providing liquidity on both sides and keeping the price in check. once relatively stable prices have been held for months, both merchant and consumer will start holding coins, instead of thinking "i have to turn these bitcoins in to cash as FAST as possible" they will be thinking " i have to hold these bitcoin for as long as possible" investors will not want to "buy the price up" because they know if they do that immediately after a sell off will bring the price pretty much right where it use to be.. this is because consumers will see this as an opportunity to get products for cheep. and so investors will be forced to set a bid and wait months for it to fill..

 

today is the day bitcoin start its never ending super slow bull run.

lol just a thought....

Down?

yes this trend is obviously broken...

a new healthier / more sustainable trend is forming

S3052, I wonder if you consider the trendline from 4.64/5.05 broken?

Thanks for sharing. There are always many way to count the waves...

The most important thing is not to be right all the time in the predictions of the waves, but to create profits.
Right now, the better risk / reward relationship is to be short. I waited quite a while for this opportunity and now here we are.
Shorting 1344 has a approx. 2% stop loss (1371). Reward is minimum down to 1280-1300 (3.3 - 5%), and if it was the big top, much more.

This elliott wave article suggests a high of 1511.  What...to...do...

[Edit] Not sure where the high of 1511 falls on the count though. 

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/02/06/sp-500-still-riding-strongest-bull-wave-technically-speaking/