Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 63.

chsados

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Quote from: waveaddict on January 31, 2012, 12:35:11 AM

the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/

we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.

triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.

A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon

nice post

molecular

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Quote from: ineededausername on January 31, 2012, 12:44:01 AM

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance? Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)? 200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

I have the suspicion that technical analysis works in large part by convention: if a lot of people agree some pattern means this or that, then they will act in unison on its appearance. Since doing the same thing as the other market participants (preferrably earlier than the others, of course) yields gain, it's a good strategy to act upon these conventional signals, however (un-)founded they might be.

This is also why suggestions like "bitcoin likes triangles" make sense: many bitcoiners know about triangle interpretation and use it.

If everyone agreed "the price being at x.xx333 for more than 33 seconds" was a strong buy signal and acted upon it, it actually would be and the price would rise.

So yes, I guess you're right, it's essentially special exactly because "humans have 10 fingers".

waveaddict

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Quote from: ineededausername on January 31, 2012, 12:44:01 AM

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance? Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)? 200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

SMAs can be used as a trend reversal signal, but I can't see how they can be support/resistance.

good question but you will never get a satisfying answer. Think of it as one of those things you don't need to understand completely in order to know how to work with it and profit from it. Every asset has its favorite sma. Take gold for instance, the 150sma is the big one, while in currencies, its the 13 and 34. Universally though, the 20sma is the momentum indicator. Buy above it and sell below it if you are into daytrading.

ineededausername

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bitcoin hundred-aire

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance? Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)? 200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

SMAs can be used as a trend reversal signal, but I can't see how they can be support/resistance.

waveaddict

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Activity: 532

Merit: 500

the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/

we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.

triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.

A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: cbeast on January 30, 2012, 02:36:49 PM

Quote from: S3052 on January 30, 2012, 02:21:40 PM

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

The Weather: It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture. (The season will change)
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated. (We don't know exactly what the weather will be.)

Weather is more predictable than markets.

markets are as predictable as weather.

i actually made this point in another thread; it's not a negative thing to say about technical analysis...

molecular

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Quote from: waspoza on January 30, 2012, 06:05:38 PM

Quote from: cbeast on January 30, 2012, 04:45:38 PM

Were you mining on C64s back then?

ZX Spectrum FTW. Wink

busch microtronic, has a TMS 1600 (4 bit), overclocked to 800 kHz

still trying to find a way to fit sha256 somehow Sad

sorry to pollute the 100th page of the thread with pic

waspoza

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Firstbits: 1waspoza

Quote from: cbeast on January 30, 2012, 04:45:38 PM

Were you mining on C64s back then?

ZX Spectrum FTW. Wink

molecular

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cbeast, I'm assuming you're arguing that s3052s' report doesn't contain much substance, right? I'm also assuming your post was meant half-jokingly, so please see mine in the same light.

Quote from: cbeast on January 30, 2012, 02:36:49 PM

Weather is more predictable than markets.

exactly, that's why your weather-analogy doesn't work so well.

Quote from: cbeast on January 30, 2012, 02:36:49 PM

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture. (The season will change)

bitcoin does not have a strong seasonal predictability like weather does, and that's why the mid and long term preditctions of s3052s' report actually have substance as opposed to the outlook that spring will come for the northern hemisphere.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: S3052 on January 30, 2012, 03:07:10 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Chodpaba,

CONGRATS!!!

You opened the 100th page of this thread, and even with a great picture.

I still remember the day when I opened the thread and bitcoin was only having few followers and the BTCUSD price was 0.1 $.

Amazing times..

Were you mining on C64s back then?

molecular

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Activity: 2772

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Quote from: S3052 on January 30, 2012, 02:21:40 PM

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

I hope you didn't take my previous comment as negative criticism... if nothing can be said about the direction, a neutral update is the right thing and knowing the trigger levels is valuable information nevertheless.

So far your short term update seems to be on track... (I hope that didn't reveal too much about the content)

S3052

legendary

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Chodpaba,

CONGRATS!!!

You opened the 100th page of this thread, and even with a great picture.

I still remember the day when I opened the thread and bitcoin was only having few followers and the BTCUSD price was 0.1 $.

Amazing times..

naima53

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Merit: 502

I just stopped selling (just kidding) Cheesy

cbeast

donator

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: S3052 on January 30, 2012, 02:21:40 PM

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

The Weather: It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture. (The season will change)
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated. (We don't know exactly what the weather will be.)

Weather is more predictable than markets.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: M4v3R on January 29, 2012, 08:25:11 AM

proudhon: the update was actually quite bullish.

I thought it was very neutral. I read it as if it goes down, it might go down more, and if it goes up, it might go up more... But as almost always the bullish side was stressed.

lol. almost exactly what I wrote, could've just +1'd you.

note to self: read all comments before posting.

molecular

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Quote from: M4v3R on January 29, 2012, 08:25:11 AM

proudhon: the update was actually quite bullish.

I read the update as neutral. There was no affirmation without a precondition. He didn't even say one way was more likely than the other.

notme

legendary

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Quote from: zby on January 29, 2012, 10:11:57 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: naima53 on January 29, 2012, 09:16:47 AM

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoiniсa 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

this works, it was much much more profitable around $3 or so a few weeks back.

Who loses on that? bitcoinica? So they are a bucket shot after all?

Losers are those that react to the sudden move and try to chase it. You can only take profits on Bitcoinica when someone will take your position at a profitable price. If you trigger a crossover a lot of people are watching, it can work out pretty well for you.

S3052

legendary

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Quote from: Hawkix on January 29, 2012, 08:32:33 AM

Quote from: S3052 on January 29, 2012, 05:18:52 AM

Juts issued an interim bitcoin technical analysis update in the subscriber section.

As the content of this S3052's analysis is private only to subscribed members, I would vote to make the notifications about private too. I know that some PR is always needed, but this reveals hints to the market. Instead, do some week-ago or so POST MORTEM analysis, where you will publish the previous analysis and discuss the outcome.

I agree. At the same time, I want to stress that the private updates should remain private and not revealed here.

naima53

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sometimes does not work Grin

Quote

Who loses on that? bitcoinica? So they are a bucket shot after all?

nope ... bitkoinica nothing to lose ... losing those who hold rates there for a long time ...

Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 63. (Read 540249 times)