No worries. I have nothing to hide.
As you can see , I outlined two options. The market decided for the second option, but I still favor the bearish resolution from current levels up to 1353 DOWN. And this option remains valid as long at 1370 holds.
I am 90% convinced that we will see at least a strong top pattern this week.
Net a tradable scenario can be to short 1340-1352 with a stop above 1370.
EDIT: Above 1370 is bullish with some more upside, before eventually the crash arrives. This will not invalidate it, just delay the crash. Target remains below 500 for the S&P500
Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 62. (Read 540249 times)
February 06, 2012, 05:32:44 PM
February 06, 2012, 04:17:05 PM
S3052, did you remove your postings on the stock market apocalypse? Where are they? You did an analysis on the S&P 500 and predicted it would go down...a lot. Are you too embarrassed to leave them up? I bet if they came true you would be boasting about it instead of hiding them. Please correct me if I am wrong.
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html
Ok, sorry if I sounded like I attacked S3052. I didn't find them on the main page (they used to be on the main page...I think.)
February 06, 2012, 04:15:58 PM
S3052, did you remove your postings on the stock market apocalypse? Where are they? You did an analysis on the S&P 500 and predicted it would go down...a lot. Are you too embarrassed to leave them up? I bet if they came true you would be boasting about it instead of hiding them. Please correct me if I am wrong.
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html
February 06, 2012, 03:41:23 PM
S3052, did you remove your postings on the stock market apocalypse? Where are they? You did an analysis on the S&P 500 and predicted it would go down...a lot. Are you too embarrassed to leave them up? I bet if they came true you would be boasting about it instead of hiding them. Please correct me if I am wrong.
February 05, 2012, 10:02:10 PM
Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...
Several months ago the mood was extremely dark, the news still kept talking of bitcoin being dead.
This has changed.
Precisely. Sentiment is up, even among my friends that still don't fully understand the concept of cryptocurrency. They see me getting more and more involved with it, and their exclamations of "Sounds like a scam!" and "Well have fun til it tanks!" have changed to comments like "What was that thing called again?" and "how's the mining?"
Still some sarcasm, but almost none of the original flabbergasted pessimism.
same here, thought they were not sarcastic or did thread bitcoin anyway like a scam. but they got more interested in it recently.
a friend of mine e.g. refuses to sell his bitcoin to me at the daily price, i ask him every time i see him, offering a little more than market price
February 05, 2012, 06:07:34 PM
lol
February 05, 2012, 06:05:11 PM
February 05, 2012, 06:03:13 PM
Just signed up. Let's see how good S3052 is (I hear his short-term alerts are pretty accurate).
I have been quite pleased on the most part. 6+ months.
February 05, 2012, 06:02:17 PM
HAHAH YES! Die stupid manipulation wall! DIE!!
February 05, 2012, 05:51:50 PM
Just signed up. Let's see how good S3052 is (I hear his short-term alerts are pretty accurate).
February 05, 2012, 04:58:38 PM
Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...
Several months ago the mood was extremely dark, the news still kept talking of bitcoin being dead.
This has changed.
Precisely. Sentiment is up, even among my friends that still don't fully understand the concept of cryptocurrency. They see me getting more and more involved with it, and their exclamations of "Sounds like a scam!" and "Well have fun til it tanks!" have changed to comments like "What was that thing called again?" and "how's the mining?"
Still some sarcasm, but almost none of the original flabbergasted pessimism.
February 05, 2012, 04:26:12 PM
Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...
Several months ago the mood was extremely dark, the news still kept talking of bitcoin being dead.
This has changed.
February 05, 2012, 04:11:53 PM
So the key question for me is: will 5.4 hold?
No, of course!!!
S3052 is always too bullish in his predictions.
Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...
The picture is inspired by the early results of this poll - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-deep-you-are-ready-to-go-57324
February 05, 2012, 03:52:49 PM
Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?
In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"
In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"
I don't know, but I can draw this support line (on non-log chart):
So the key question for me is: will 5.4 hold?
February 05, 2012, 02:51:08 PM
Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?
In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"
In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"
we believe the answer is yes.
We are in a bull market since November as long as 3.3 / 3.8 $ holds.
And short term, there is a golden cross above 5.3 - 5.4 $
February 05, 2012, 01:11:09 PM
There are various possible interpretations in the short term.
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?
And, before reversing up to what? Higher than $7.2, or just higher than the deeper levels the price will have dropped to? If it's the latter, well, of course the price will eventually go up from some deeper level.
February 05, 2012, 01:00:28 PM
SMA/EMA/MACD/RSI are bearish. Why so optimistic? Are you tryng to push market? Latest false-positive jumps were right after private short term updates.
Latest big overbought jump above 6 was 100% caused by S3052's short term update. It was possibly one person. I realize how he is unhappy with this prediction ) Especially if he used leverage.
Latest big oversold to 4.8 was also happened right after S3052's short-term update.
Latest big overbought jump above 6 was 100% caused by S3052's short term update. It was possibly one person. I realize how he is unhappy with this prediction ) Especially if he used leverage.
Latest big oversold to 4.8 was also happened right after S3052's short-term update.
February 05, 2012, 01:00:19 PM
Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?
In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"
In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"
February 05, 2012, 12:57:19 PM
There are various possible interpretations in the short term.
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?
January 31, 2012, 05:18:24 AM
the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/
we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.
triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.
A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon
we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.
triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.
A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon
I wanted to post a similar analysis - with only one difference - breaking 4.6 would probably trigger another wave of cascading bitcoinica liquidations - so we'll probably reach the bottom pretty quickly (instead of bouncing from 4.5 first). I thought that one cascade would deleverage enough - but apparently people did not treat it seriously and bitcoinica is still nearly fully depleted of USD (last time the * was seen around 5.6 - maybe some people liquidated since then but I would not bet on that). This is the major threat that keeps me from buying back.
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