Bitcoin or gold? - page 514. | Bitcointalksearch.org

deisik

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 30, 2015, 01:17:19 PM

Quote from: deisik on September 30, 2015, 01:10:01 PM

Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 30, 2015, 01:01:04 PM

Quote from: deisik on September 29, 2015, 09:22:39 AM

99% of people posting here don't even suspect that high Bitcoin prices are actually harmful to it in the long run

How do you know that? My research suggest the opposite, explain.

It's really simple. Say, we have the market cap equal to $100,000. What is better for Bitcoin, the user base of 100 people with the price at $1,000 or the user base of 1,000 people with the price at $100?

Hahaha that is not a very sound argument. You know bitcoin has 8 decimals, so you can always obtain the amount you pay for relative in fiat

You didn't answer the question

But I didn't really expect you to. Nevertheless, as I have already said earlier, the number of decimals is irrelevant. It is irrelevant even in the case of fiat (for the reasons I have explained before). What is relevant is wealth distribution. If you have 100 people that hold 99% of all bitcoins, it is not very different in effect from the same 100 people holding all the bitcoins...

And we return to my question

thinkinger

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Quote from: deisik on September 29, 2015, 02:41:00 AM

Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 28, 2015, 08:55:27 PM

On the other hand bitcoin gains value each day, independent of fiat. Why because bitcoin is actually used as a currency, gold is not.

1 bitcoin would buy you a suit now, but in 10 years it will buy you a yacht probably

The main problem with Bitcoin (and you will have to admit it) is that you can't even be 90% sure that it will merely exist in 10 years (let alone be worth a yacht)...

But with gold you can

i agree.gold is better in any point.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: deisik on September 30, 2015, 01:10:01 PM

Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 30, 2015, 01:01:04 PM

Quote from: deisik on September 29, 2015, 09:22:39 AM

99% of people posting here don't even suspect that high Bitcoin prices are actually harmful to it in the long run

How do you know that? My research suggest the opposite, explain.

It's really simple. Say, we have the market cap equal to $100,000. What is better for Bitcoin, the user base of 100 people with the price at $1,000 or the user base of 1,000 people with the price at $100?

Hahaha that is not a very sound argument. You know bitcoin has 8 decimals, so you can always obtain the amount you pay for relative in fiat.

Bitcoin could be 1 trillion dollar / piece and you can still buy 1 satoshi for 10,000$ (in this event maybe they would extend the digit nr.s)

______________________________

In fact take a look at this:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

There is like a >0.7 correlation between bitcoin price and bitcoin search (indicating interest in bitcoin).

So we can conclude that the higher the BTC price, the more interested people are, and also that more bitcoin users come, if you compare it with the forum signups for those "peak" months in 2013:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

(Its an old research I did back in May but you get the idea)

Do your research man.

acroman08

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Obviously gold bitcoin isnt stable as gold, even if golds price is fading
im still investing all my wealth to gold. I have my faith on bitcoin but
Gold is better for longterm investment.

deisik

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 30, 2015, 01:01:04 PM

Quote from: deisik on September 29, 2015, 09:22:39 AM

99% of people posting here don't even suspect that high Bitcoin prices are actually harmful to it in the long run

How do you know that? My research suggest the opposite, explain.

It's really simple. Say, we have the Bitcoin market cap equal to $100,000. What is better, the user base of 100 people with the price at $1,000 or the user base of 1,000 people with the price at $100 (all of them possessing the same share of coins)?

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: deisik on September 29, 2015, 09:22:39 AM

In terms of probability? Is this the same type of "probability" that most people imply by saying "I believe that"?

Well it's my opinion, but its also me saying that it's a probable scenario. A highly probable one in fact.

I could say i`m unsure or i`m doubful, but instead I say i`m confident. It's all my opinion of course, but its a strong opinion.

Quote from: deisik on September 29, 2015, 09:22:39 AM

99% of people posting here don't even suspect that high Bitcoin prices are actually harmful to it in the long run

How do you know that? My research suggest the opposite, explain.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: n2004al on September 29, 2015, 09:02:53 AM

First: If you are not an expert in valuation you must not know the matter about you speak. I this cases no one which think a little don't speak. Because must tell bullshits. Like those you wrote above.

Second: I have not asked you the entire value of bitcoin but your value of bitcoin. In other words the value of things you give above and speak in your reply.

Third: Where is based your estimate? Which argument can give you that the value of bitcoin is that value you give? Give me only one. Or you answer is only because you have the need to speak about everything and answer to every post.

Its just pure chart analysis, i actually saw the value of bitcoin as an uptrend, since 2009, while the price of it swinged madly because of lack of liquidity.

See for a market to be efficient, there needs to be tons of traders to reach that consensus. If you know the market is ineficient then you can exploit it by trading in the direction of efficiency. Thats how speculation works in a nutshell.

My valuation is based on the logic that the price probably reached the real value this spring. And since the value is in uptrend, by now it should be much higher than the price.

So if we can achieve 1000$ just by pure speculation, then with all the atm's and adoption since, we could expect at least 2000$ for bitcoin now.

I also expect the price to reach that level very soon. The market's can stay irrational long time, but eventually they become efficient you know.

lorylore

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Quote from: 7788bitcoin on September 29, 2015, 10:31:49 PM

I will go for bitcoin. Value in gold is going to be stable and low risk. Value in bitcoin is unimaginable- either all or none. I only live once so I go for bitcoin...

You are living once but when you loose your life could look longer that you expected.
The gold is older in the market and i think that it has some reputation and the price is stable and not like bitcoin.
By going investing in bitcoins you don't know if the price will go up or down but by July 2016 i think that it will be a jump.

MinerHQ

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Quote from: 7788bitcoin on September 29, 2015, 10:31:49 PM

I will go for bitcoin. Value in gold is going to be stable and low risk. Value in bitcoin is unimaginable- either all or none. I only live once so I go for bitcoin...

Good choice but do not put all your money into only one product but you can diversify to reduce your loses.

simonloff

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Quote from: MasterYii on September 29, 2015, 10:37:20 PM

Quote from: tkbx on March 09, 2014, 01:21:54 PM

If you had to convert all your wealth to either Bitcoin or gold and keep it there for 10 years, which would you choose? Keep in mind the fact that Bitcoin has only been around for 5 years, and could be fundamentally different in any number of ways in 10 years.

I would choose bitcoin I cant afford gold it is very expensive. And I guess bitcoin pretty good investment for the future.

yes bitcoin would be the better option if we think for good investment. Bitcoin will multiply up our investments in short time compared to gold.

MasterYii

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Quote from: tkbx on March 09, 2014, 01:21:54 PM

If you had to convert all your wealth to either Bitcoin or gold and keep it there for 10 years, which would you choose? Keep in mind the fact that Bitcoin has only been around for 5 years, and could be fundamentally different in any number of ways in 10 years.

I would choose bitcoin I cant afford gold it is very expensive. And I guess bitcoin pretty good investment for the future.

7788bitcoin

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I will go for bitcoin. Value in gold is going to be stable and low risk. Value in bitcoin is unimaginable- either all or none. I only live once so I go for bitcoin...

roadbits

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Quote from: Nami on September 29, 2015, 09:49:58 PM

Quote from: tkbx on March 09, 2014, 01:21:54 PM

If you had to convert all your wealth to either Bitcoin or gold and keep it there for 10 years, which would you choose? Keep in mind the fact that Bitcoin has only been around for 5 years, and could be fundamentally different in any number of ways in 10 years.

I'll choose gold probably because it is well known and the value is very good.

That's a quite good selection to invest in gold for next 10 years but if you want to take some advantage in case bitcoins also grow faster in next few years then you may invest little bit of your money into bitcoin but you must watch out on bitcoin prices very regularly because bitcoin prices can move very fast in any direction.

Nami

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Quote from: tkbx on March 09, 2014, 01:21:54 PM

If you had to convert all your wealth to either Bitcoin or gold and keep it there for 10 years, which would you choose? Keep in mind the fact that Bitcoin has only been around for 5 years, and could be fundamentally different in any number of ways in 10 years.

I'll choose gold probably because it is well known and the value is very good.

unverified

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I think that btc will be more expensive than gold in some here.

deisik

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 29, 2015, 08:02:50 AM

Quote from: deisik on September 29, 2015, 08:00:14 AM

Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 29, 2015, 07:55:30 AM

I can be 90% sure that it will exist in 10 years. I think we have already passed the time from speculation about it's existence.

The only way bitcoin would go away is if the internet were to go too, but that is not a very likely scenario, certainly less than 1% probable.

I can even say that i believe its >99% sure that it will be here in 10 years Cheesy

But could you guarantee that it will be worth a yacht (or at least a decent boat, for that matter)?

No i cant guarantee, i just said it's a probable scenario. Anything could go wrong, but in terms of probability, it's less likely

In terms of probability? Is this the same type of "probability" that most people imply by saying "I believe that"?

Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 29, 2015, 08:02:50 AM

If it can go up to 1000$ just because of a hype, imagine how much it can go up if it really starts to become used and useful.

99% of people posting here don't even suspect that high Bitcoin prices are actually harmful to it in the long run

n2004al

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 29, 2015, 08:25:03 AM

Quote from: n2004al on September 29, 2015, 08:17:56 AM

Can you tell me the amount of "your" value of bitcoin and explain me it why that amount of value is that amount? In economy if the value have no amount there is not value.

I can do this with "my" value.

Its hard to measure, and i`m not an expert in valuation analysis.

But it's a common thing in economy that value not always equal price. This makes the markets inefficient, and can give opportunity for speculators to exploit this.

But just to give an estimate: I`d value bitcoin at over 2000$/piece right now personally.

First: If you are not an expert in valuation you must not know the matter about you speak. I this cases no one which think a little don't speak. Because must tell bullshits. Like those you wrote above.

Second: I have not asked you the entire value of bitcoin but your value of bitcoin. In other words the value of things you give above and speak in your reply.

Third: Where is based your estimate? Which argument can give you that the value of bitcoin is that value you give? Give me only one. Or you answer is only because you have the need to speak about everything and answer to every post.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: n2004al on September 29, 2015, 08:17:56 AM

Can you tell me the amount of "your" value of bitcoin and explain me it why that amount of value is that amount? In economy if the value have no amount there is not value.

I can do this with "my" value.

Its hard to measure, and i`m not an expert in valuation analysis.

But it's a common thing in economy that value not always equal price. This makes the markets inefficient, and can give opportunity for speculators to exploit this.

But just to give an estimate: I`d value bitcoin at over 2000$/piece right now personally.

n2004al

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 29, 2015, 07:55:30 AM

Quote from: n2004al on September 29, 2015, 01:31:11 AM

Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 28, 2015, 08:55:27 PM

That is true but if the derivative market collapses, there it goes the whole economy. 1 ounce of gold bought you a nice suit 100 years ago, it does the same today. Regardless of how many 0 you put next to a printed toilet paper fiat.

But bitcoin on the other hand can raise in (real) value too. While gold is inflationary, with no new value added to it at all, it only preserves value.

On the other hand bitcoin gains value each day, independent of fiat. Why because bitcoin is actually used as a currency, gold is not.

1 bitcoin would buy you a suit now, but in 10 years it will buy you a yacht probably

It is not true the part in blue and in bold. Bitcoin is not gains any value each day. The true value of currency (bitcoin) is value that currency (bitoin) has in market and the value of bitcoin in market has about ten months that is almost stable.

Actually bitcoin gains value each day, that's a fact.

The price may or may not reflect that, but the value of it is going up, look here:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses

https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Both the mining is expanding, and the number of users / nr of bitcoins moved from 1 place to another. These are all giving value to bitcoin.

The fact that the price of bitcoin doesn't reflect this, that`s another thing, but you can't deny that the value is going up.

Can you tell me the amount of "your" value of bitcoin and explain me it why that amount of value is that amount? In economy if the value have no amount there is not value.

I can do this with "my" value.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: deisik on September 29, 2015, 08:00:14 AM

Quote from: RealBitcoin on September 29, 2015, 07:55:30 AM

I can be 90% sure that it will exist in 10 years. I think we have already passed the time from speculation about it's existence.

The only way bitcoin would go away is if the internet were to go too, but that is not a very likely scenario, certainly less than 1% probable.

I can even say that i believe its >99% sure that it will be here in 10 years Cheesy

But could you guarantee that it will be worth a yacht (or at least a decent boat, for that matter)?

No i cant guarantee, i just said it's a probable scenario. Anything could go wrong, but in terms of probability, it's less likely.

If it can go up to 1000$ just because of a hype, imagine how much it can go up if it really starts to become used and useful.

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