Technical analysis on Bitcoin is like technical analysis on penny stocks - worthless as the price can easily be manipulated by a single or a small group of investors, is very subject to news events, and the market is too small and immature.
Well, yes - but, the market is larger and more mature now than it has ever been, and the analysis done on it so far is based on the history of that manipulated market. So, I would argue that if a model has applied to this point, it should be able to apply in future. That is basically what I was getting at in the OP; I think what we are seeing are the elements of human nature being applied to a market space. The tendencies toward greed, fear, manipulation, profit taking, etc., are what has driven the shape of the price graphs up to this point in time. And that, together with it being such as small market, is why, for example, each time there is a dramatic price rise we see a sudden fall back to a midpoint and subsequent instability... people are taking profits, becoming scared (in some cases), and jumping on opportunities (in others). It makes for dramatic, but very definite and noticeable, changes in price.
And you're trying to analyse a manipulated market? By your own statement?
DOH!!!!!!
You can't time manipulation, the people that can manipulate do it on their own schedual when THEY feel like it.
However, by March 2016 (end of Phase 1) I'll have a better idea of how the cycle is shaping up compared to the previous ones. And I'll put up updated charts periodically, just for info.
