Bitcoin's future is DOWN - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

exstasie

legendary

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Quote from: Predict0r on July 08, 2018, 07:56:49 PM

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Even a mid-term bull trap could allow people to exit at 2x this price while you're waiting for sub-$1K prices. I prefer to wait for significant trading ranges to break, then ride the trend.

Yup. Even dumb ol' me knows that selling high is better. But you give no reason to suppose there will be any such major increase.

I guess you missed the point about trading range.

You're telling people to short directly after a tweezer bottom on the 1-week chart, near the bottom of a long term range! I don't need reasoning to assume price can break upward from a range (even though you claim it can only break down). I'm also not dumb enough to short horizontal support before it's actually failed.

Your entire approach is that of someone who is constantly getting their shorts squeezed, and what's even worse is that you're going on about "manipulation via Tether." Nobody gives a shit about Tether. Nobody gave a shit about the Willy bot either.

Quote from: Predict0r on July 08, 2018, 07:56:49 PM

Again, any rise will run into exponential resistance as those now disenchanted sell out, when they get close to recovering their money. That's just an observation - my main point is that the overall trend will be down, meaning only the sharpest traders should buy along the way.

Cuz Tether?

We get it. A bubble happened. A correction is happening. As someone who has been trading Bitcoin for several years now, let me tell you something: the correction will never play out as you expect. You should be thinking in possibilities, not merely assuming this correction will play out as the most bearish of all historic corrections (by far). You have no historical data points or even conventional chart patterns to support your thesis.

davit putra

copper member

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Quote from: Predict0r on July 06, 2018, 04:27:14 PM

By the most logical thinking:

• There's strong evidence that the late 2017 spike in Bitcoin value was due to manipulation via Tether.

• IF that is so, then that entire episode actually means nothing, and...

• Bitcoin etc values will decay back to their historical levels prior to pump & dump.

• This will be slow because interim buyers won't want to take the losses.

Look at BC charts for the past 6 months. It's very easy to imagine the average value continuing to decay down to $400 in 12-18 months. And that's what makes sense - at least, more sense than anything else.

A few brilliant traders will make money getting in and out during the decline, but all the other players here are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. The only "charting" you need is the big picture here:

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

Unfortunately, there seems to be no reliable way to buy a put on BC for that time-frame, or I would.

Friends, I guess that's not going to happen to bitcoin, I find it hard to believe that the future of bitcoin falls. Bitcoin is not a weak coin, and bitcoin is more likely to have a bright future.

MoonJeina

sr. member

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Make winning bets on sports with Sportsbet.io!

All these logistics and speculations must be backed up by some real evidences .
These type of random speculations just results in a widespread of panic and distrust among people in respect to bitcoin . If the future for bitcoin will be down , we will see it for ourselves . Until then , no such statement matters.

eaglewhite80

member

Activity: 406

Merit: 36

Quote from: Ikay on July 08, 2018, 07:45:05 PM

It won't easy to the users if bitcoin will continue to decrease because a lot of users are now depend on it but if we have a lot of hard work to promote it more to new investors I think it will save bitcoin price in future so probably many will back and patronize bitcoin.

If that is what you think, then I am not sure what I actually need to tell you to think otherwise. You think because we are in a downtrend, the number of users have simply decreased as a result of that?

What you saw last year was a manipulated pumped price as far as I am concerned, but that does not mean the growth of bitcoin is hindered forever. When a value is moved based on speculation only without some real demand, then, the likelihood of a correction is higher in percentage. It is a good thing though for those who got in for the right reasons, as the bottom will eventually end up a good buy whichever way. It is just unfortunate that those who simply are just gullible, looking for quick ways to get rich without knowing what makes bitcoin really what it is to even know what the future could be greatly holding, are the ones who still come back to join the FOMO over and over again after missing the dip.

cellard

legendary

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Quote from: Predict0r on July 08, 2018, 07:20:08 PM

Quote from: cellard on July 08, 2018, 06:55:20 PM

Going long term on Bitcoin will outperform going long term on mutual funds or any other conventional investment of choice.

Source? For 'will outperform' (not 'has outperformed') of course... lots of fuzzy thinking on this forum.

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How much money are you willing to bet that Bitcoin will go back to $400 next year?

I didn't say $400 next year. I said it's heading for $400 in 18 months. Maybe two years. Maybe $600 or even $800. Look at the curve - it shows the main idea: down, down, down. Feel free to replace my guesswork with your guesswork on the details. I'm just trying to point out the big picture implications of what we now know.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

If I could reliably buy a put on BC for 18 months out, I'd put $50K or $100K into it. I'd probably price it at $800 to have some margin. The profit would still be huge. However, not only do I know nothing about such maneuvers, others have looked into it and say it's impractical. A Forbes writer did a detailed piece on that several years ago, pointing out some hidden gotchas with crypto. Can't find the link now but it certainly put me off.

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How much money are you willing to bet that your mutual funds will outperform Bitcoin?

Actually, I'm betting all my money that the mutual funds will do better. Over the next 18 months I expect the market to return a 15% profit, not an 90% loss. And as I noted earlier, my money won't be outright stolen, and I won't be cheated. Those are huge benefits. And I sleep well at night.

I understand that you consider actively betting that you are right by not holding any bitcoins and by putting your money in mutual funds, but that's not how it works.

In order to put your money where your mouth is, you have to bet against someone here that your prediction will be right. So are you willing to bet money in your prediction? 18 months from now, $800 or lower (you initially said $400 but you are raising now to double that... okay). Bitbet can be used to automate the 18 month countdown. Im sure you can find some rich guys in this forum willing to take the bet and make a lot of money on you being right and us being wrong. Are you down?

MarquiseMuseum

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www.MarquiseMuseum.com

The tether manipulation is unfortunately a likely cause of much of bitcoins growth in 2017 as I did menton way back in december before the markets crashed.

I don't remember exact calculations right now but there is real growth in crypto that will offset a decline back to $400, I think it was something like 50% per quarter or half year which would put us squarely at around $2000-3000 as absolute bottom but again, I don't remember the calculation. It's in my historic post if you need specifics. It is also possible that there will need to be a spike downwards to really acknowledge the fake growth, so below $1k could happen but very briefly and quickly back up, similar to a flash crash.

If this ultra bearish scenario unfolds, -80% from $20k is a given no matter the other circumstances, so that's where people who are not yet invested should start looking for an entry and then buy more at $500 intervals down towards $2k and keep some for the flash crash if there is time.

Long term, 15 years say, blockchain and AI with androids will merge and progress world GDP to $1Quadrillion+ in a roaring 20's 2.0.

boy130

sr. member

Activity: 616

Merit: 263

Looks like there was just enough pressure to push us over the $6,700 resistance level, we will probably trade horizontally for a while until the next big rally back over $10,000. Hopefully it comes sooner rather than later, as we need more interest in crypto.

Predict0r

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

Quote

Even a mid-term bull trap could allow people to exit at 2x this price while you're waiting for sub-$1K prices. I prefer to wait for significant trading ranges to break, then ride the trend.

Yup. Even dumb ol' me knows that selling high is better. But you give no reason to suppose there will be any such major increase.

Again, any rise will run into exponential resistance as those now disenchanted sell out, when they get close to recovering their money. That's just an observation - my main point is that the overall trend will be down, meaning only the sharpest traders should buy along the way.

Predict0r

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

Got it. 53 is the breakpoint for "older and wiser". Older than that is dumber. The rules are confusing.

Good on you for posting under your real name. I don't choose to, sorry. That makes me dumber too, I know.

See ya here in 18 months.

Ikay

full member

Activity: 420

Merit: 100

It won't easy to the users if bitcoin will continue to decrease because a lot of users are now depend on it but if we have a lot of hard work to promote it more to new investors I think it will save bitcoin price in future so probably many will back and patronize bitcoin.

Predict0r

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

Quote from: cellard on July 08, 2018, 06:55:20 PM

Going long term on Bitcoin will outperform going long term on mutual funds or any other conventional investment of choice.

Source? For 'will outperform' (not 'has outperformed') of course... lots of fuzzy thinking on this forum.

Quote

How much money are you willing to bet that Bitcoin will go back to $400 next year?

I didn't say $400 next year. I said it's heading for $400 in 18 months. Maybe two years. Maybe $600 or even $800. Look at the curve - it shows the main idea: down, down, down. Feel free to replace my guesswork with your guesswork on the details. I'm just trying to point out the big picture implications of what we now know.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

If I could reliably buy a put on BC for 18 months out, I'd put $50K or $100K into it. I'd probably price it at $800 to have some margin. The profit would still be huge. However, not only do I know nothing about such maneuvers, others have looked into it and say it's impractical. A Forbes writer did a detailed piece on that several years ago, pointing out some hidden gotchas with crypto. Can't find the link now but it certainly put me off.

Quote

How much money are you willing to bet that your mutual funds will outperform Bitcoin?

Actually, I'm betting all my money that the mutual funds will do better. Over the next 18 months I expect the market to return a 15% profit, not an 90% loss. And as I noted earlier, my money won't be outright stolen, and I won't be cheated. Those are huge benefits. And I sleep well at night.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: Predict0r on July 08, 2018, 06:55:10 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on July 08, 2018, 06:47:47 PM

i'll acknowledge this is still officially a bear market and we could go far lower. but $400 just isn't realistic... ~ $1000, worst case.

Maybe. I wouldn't be real surprised if it ultimately flattens out at $600-$800. But in the big picture today, those are details. It still means "get out now".

Not necessarily. Price still hasn't broken down from the February - July range, which means this could still be a major bottom area. I'm leaning bearish (though I'm on the sidelines with no short open), but I'm just pointing out the time to sell was months ago. There's a decent chance selling the $6,000s = selling the bottom.

Even a mid-term bull trap could allow people to exit at 2x this price while you're waiting for sub-$1K prices. I prefer to wait for significant trading ranges to break, then ride the trend. We've been sideways for too long, need more evidence of downtrend continuation now.

cellard

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 1252

Quote from: Predict0r on July 08, 2018, 01:47:20 PM

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Have fun with your mutual funds, you may finally be rich by age 100.

Thanks, I have had fun and will be rich long before 100.

BTW mutual funds are long-term. Which is the approach everyone here recommends - now that getting rich quick didn't work out.

My advice is simply to learn from your mistake, and don't make it worse based on slogans, dreaming, groupthink, and slanted advice in general. Just look at who's stirring the pot... the coin exchanges. They're the only ones who continually make money out of this.

If you must invest in crypto, sell now and buy back in at $400. That at least isn't obviously dumb. The market may be pumped again someday. Or put your money in a real investment.

Going long term on Bitcoin will outperform going long term on mutual funds or any other conventional investment of choice.

How much money are you willing to bet that Bitcoin will go back to $400 next year?

How much money are you willing to bet that your mutual funds will outperform Bitcoin?

Predict0r

newbie

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on July 08, 2018, 06:47:47 PM

i'll acknowledge this is still officially a bear market and we could go far lower. but $400 just isn't realistic... ~ $1000, worst case.

Maybe. I wouldn't be real surprised if it ultimately flattens out at $600-$800. But in the big picture today, those are details. It still means "get out now".

And - I never said mutual funds are in the same league of returns. I said they have good returns and are hugely less risky (which itself is a form of return).

Predict0r

newbie

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Another FUD speculation... OP, you claim that the 2017 bitcoin price pump was influenced by teather manipulation, yet you did not back up your claims with any prove...

You're a BC investor and you don't know about this? Google "bitcoin manipulated tether". Here's where it starts:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066

figmentofmyass

legendary

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Quote from: Predict0r on July 08, 2018, 01:47:20 PM

Quote

Have fun with your mutual funds, you may finally be rich by age 100.

Thanks, I have had fun and will be rich long before 100.

BTW mutual funds are long-term. Which is the approach everyone here recommends - now that getting rich quick didn't work out.

the get-rich-quickers are getting washed out of the market as we speak. a market dropping 70% from the highs will do that. Wink

doesn't mean the long term uptrend is threatened or that mutual funds are in the same league of returns......

Quote from: Predict0r on July 08, 2018, 01:47:20 PM

My advice is simply to learn from your mistake, and don't make it worse based on slogans, dreaming, groupthink, and slanted advice in general. Just look at who's stirring the pot... the coin exchanges. They're the only ones who continually make money out of this.

If you must invest in crypto, sell now and buy back in at $400. That at least isn't obviously dumb. The market may be pumped again someday. Or put your money in a real investment.

i'll acknowledge this is still officially a bear market and we could go far lower. but $400 just isn't realistic. the lowest (% wise) we've ever dropped was after the 2011 bubble. that equivalent would put us at ~ $1000, worst case. every other bubble correction landed higher (2012, april 2013, november 2013).

based on history, aiming for $1000 is low probability and $400 is a pipe dream.

Predict0r

newbie

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Quote from: Shinpako09 on July 08, 2018, 06:00:49 PM

We've seen so much FUD, people pulling down btc, etc. We are making money here

Anyone else who predicted Bitcoin going down was right - at least in the last 6 months. It's easy to call a prediction you don't like "FUD", but what do you expect? There are no analyses proving that BC will go up or down. Everyone except those who can manipulate the market are guessing. Read the posts here - they're all either faith or guesswork. I'm pointing out that the chances of BC going down have much more basis than any faith or hope it will go up. A negative prediction isn't "pulling down BC". Do you only listen to positive predictions??

Are you making money now? Since January? Really? Then you're one of the sharp traders I mentioned who can time the market and profit on short-term changes. The other 99% of the folks here will just lose more the longer they hold. And if they try to time the market they'll lose faster.

It doesn't matter whether you bought at $2 or $20,000. That's past. If you hold onto BC now you're almost certainly going to lose money. The value of your account will be down 90% in 18 months.

Shinpako09

legendary

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So you're saying that we should get away from btc and just invested in the same thing you have invested? Sorry but all of your analysis isn't enough to convince us to part ways with btc. We've seen so much FUD, people pulling down btc, etc. We are making money here more than you earn on that investment of yours so why would we switch. No, thanks.

Predict0r

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

Quote

Listen young idiot from someone much older and wiser

If I scurried off to analyze any link you feel like posting, I would be an idiot. The coin industry churns out hundreds of these a week. Next, I can guarantee you're not older. And if you're upside-down on Bitcoin, you're not wiser either. So you've shot your mouth off here 40 times - big deal; from what I've seen that's hardly a credential.

You're probably looking at a loss now, judging from all the passion against someone predicting a fall. Did you buy at $10K? You'll never get that back. When BC does keep coasting down, you'll blame all the people who didn't just believe, believe, believe - like in the movies, where that works.

Or maybe - outside chance on this - you can get Legendary to sell you his/her coins. Since you think their experience is so relevant.

I posted what looks like an obvious trend with a known cause. That deserves to be presented, because almost nothing else about BC has either of those characteristics. Ergo, the coastdown is most likely, and the smartest move now is get out. (Not you; you should continue buying... and it will get cheaper all the time!).

Enjoy your red ink!

AngelSky

hero member

Activity: 1008

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Quote from: elloco4ever on July 08, 2018, 02:28:42 PM

Quote from: DeadCoin on July 08, 2018, 02:01:52 PM

Yes now the price of bitcoin is down, but at the same time today market starts with green. The price also increase slightly, the downtrend is slighlty change to upward. But dont know whether it is going to continue or not. If it continues bitcoin holders are happy otherwise people lost their faith in bitcoin. If it continues means slowly it will rise and by the end of this we can expect the huge growth from the bitcoin. So hope market will recover soon. Use this down to buy more bitcoin and hold it for future.

We need to look at the market from investor's point of view as we have noticed from past 6 months that bitcoin's value is gradually going down but once in every 2 month there will be a temporary pump in the value of bitcoin. We need to utilize these moments to make gain until the next bull run.

I expect the bull run in the market at the this September mate. Here you do not need to find the marketplace value of the any top coins because however we know those coins will go to big in the market.

If you have same thought like me invest your money on Eth, NEO, NEM, TRX and IOTA.
These coins will give 200 percentage profit if you invest today means as well.

Topic: Bitcoin's future is DOWN - page 4. (Read 822 times)