By my crude estimation, if the 6 million reserve BCR remain unburned and unbacked - worst case scenario IMO - and if BCR is on average bid for at only half the current market price, if the backing thus acquired only lends 20% of its actual value to the market price, it will take appx. 1 year for the Assured Minimum Value of BCR to match the market price it started at. After this, the AMV starts to exceed the starting market price rather rapidly. Holds true whatever the initial starting price is.
eg, taking the current Bittrex bid price:
This is all pure conjecture, I'm just working from some simple initial conditions and extrapolating, and I'm using BTC as a yardstick because most people here have a feel for what BTC is 'worth' - I think we should be ditching most of the cryptofiat backing for something solid ASAP. Now more than ever world markets are volatile, the relative prices of anything could go any which way at short notice so even when some actual data is available to model from, long term price predictions are always going to be about as accurate as long term weather forecasts. Possibly slightly more accurate than 'Technical Analysis' chart voodoo though, which to me seems like driving your car forwards while staring only into the rear view mirror and believing that the past is telling you what's in the road ahead.
One thing is certain though, for backing to happen we're going to have to attract buyers.
I'm doubtful we'll convince many miners to just buy BCR instead of wasting electricity to acquire it. Miners are mostly just geeks hoping to get free shit. I suspect few miners are interested in actual investment rather than raw speculation or instadumping via BTC into fiat to buy more of whatever it is that they smoke that convinces them that what they're doing is a sensible use of their time and energy.
Back to the attracting buyers bit... as bitcreditscc said a little while ago we're going to need outreach. I've done sales work and I hated it too, but we can learn from what other cryptocurrencies have done and avoid their mistakes. Sadly I don't think there are many successes to emulate, unless one counts the likes of the Ethereum, fools and their money etc.
Top of my personal list of things to avoid is spending much - or any - money or effort within the crypto scene, it's filthy with dogma and broken thinking, and most of 'em are completely broke from all that pre-obsolete mining hardware, the electricity bills, and playing suicidal daytrader against whales and bots on the obviously crooked (all of them) exchanges.
It's difficult to know where to direct efforts though without an idea of what the community sees as the longer term
purpose of BCR. Before the bidding/backing thing got underway I think there was plenty of scope in the original vision of a p2p banking and financial services platform. When the backing system is fully running I hope bitcreditscc continues to develop that aspect of things, it's a big market.
There are just so many ways that BCR could flourish, I'd be interested to hear what others see ahead, or would like to see in BCR - not short term technical stuff like wallets crashing on platform X, that stuff will get ironed out, but the bigger picture.
Just ruminating here, and thought I'd post some more asset backing porn as the BCR price seems to have risen somewhat since I last did so.
If this post has left any cryptognats unoffended, please tell me so I can include you in my sweeping and unflattering characterisations next time, I wouldn't want anyone to feel left out.
