BitForce SC - release notes - page 5.

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

Quote from: DILLIGAF on June 22, 2012, 09:46:27 PM

Quote from: MrTeal on June 22, 2012, 09:24:53 PM

Quote from: DutchBrat on June 22, 2012, 09:07:11 PM

My solution:

Open up a pre–order list from Monday till mid–july, then close it.

This will give everyone ample time to order

Make an inventory of what has been ordered and start producing exactly that amount

When all the pre–Orders have been produced, pack them and ship them off at the same day in october, be it jalapenos, singles or rigs.

That way everone will receive their products around the same time

Seems fair to me. I'm not sure BFL is really terribly worried about fairness, but it is what it is.

Bet it does you probably live in the US therefore guaranteed to get your order days/weeks before everyone else.

I don't. Would you expect them to estimate the average delivery time and stagger the shipments based on that?

DILLIGAF

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: MrTeal on June 22, 2012, 09:24:53 PM

Quote from: DutchBrat on June 22, 2012, 09:07:11 PM

My solution:

Open up a pre–order list from Monday till mid–july, then close it.

This will give everyone ample time to order

Make an inventory of what has been ordered and start producing exactly that amount

When all the pre–Orders have been produced, pack them and ship them off at the same day in october, be it jalapenos, singles or rigs.

That way everone will receive their products around the same time

Seems fair to me. I'm not sure BFL is really terribly worried about fairness, but it is what it is.

Bet it does you probably live in the US therefore guaranteed to get your order days/weeks before everyone else.

Phraust

full member

Activity: 206

Merit: 100

Mostly Harmless...

I think it's nice that they even consider our input. Honestly, they are the only game in town, and could tell us to all kick rocks. Anyone who wanted the hashpower only they can provide would still have to deal with them, regardless.

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

Quote from: DutchBrat on June 22, 2012, 09:07:11 PM

My solution:

Open up a pre–order list from Monday till mid–july, then close it.

This will give everyone ample time to order

Make an inventory of what has been ordered and start producing exactly that amount

When all the pre–Orders have been produced, pack them and ship them off at the same day in october, be it jalapenos, singles or rigs.

That way everone will receive their products around the same time

Seems fair to me. I'm not sure BFL is really terribly worried about fairness, but it is what it is.

||bit

hero member

Activity: 924

Merit: 506

Quote from: DILLIGAF on June 22, 2012, 08:14:24 PM

You neglect the scenario of the th/s boxes shipping first if that happens then your rosy picture here turns to shit and if any amount of them a week ship then your profitable for a week or two at most until you reach the point of never seeing a return at about week three.

If the BFL person answers my prior comment to him/her, then we'll know what may more likely transpire. I suspect, assuming they are reasonable, that they will focus on the coffeee warmers and jalapenos. Otherwise, it will not go over well with the customers they want to keep.

||bit

||bit

hero member

Activity: 924

Merit: 506

Quote from: rjk on June 22, 2012, 08:11:51 PM

Quote from: MrTeal on June 22, 2012, 08:08:32 PM

Given BFL's previous supply issues, does anyone think they'll be able to put out more than almost 1300 singles in a 3 month period? I think the initial runs of singles will be massively profitable for the early adopters.

Not knowing the current sales numbers, it's hard to say. However, if I made a guess that the ones actually posting on the forum that they have gotten a device represents one fourth of customers (number pulled out of my ass), then I would say they might be able to hit that especially since they have an opportunity now to tune the production line.

Let's say they are shipping ~200 Singles per week now. Do the math, I did the guessing. Grin

||bit

hero member

Activity: 924

Merit: 506

Quote from: MrTeal on June 22, 2012, 08:08:32 PM

I think the initial deliveries of SC will be quite profitable for awhile, if for no other reason than BFL's ability to deliver them. Even if the singles do 40GH/s, it would take ~425 of them to double the network. Let's say the ship 425 at the end of October in the first batch and that at that point the difficulty is about the same as it is now, as is the price. Within a couple days, difficulty doubles. If no other singles ship out for two weeks, even with double difficulty that single would pay for itself in 2 1/2 weeks. Now imagine they ship 425 more in November and 425 more in late December. The block reward halves, and difficulty is now 6.8M. Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off.

Given BFL's previous supply issues, does anyone think they'll be able to put out more than almost 1300 singles in a 3 month period? I think the initial runs of singles will be massively profitable for the early adopters.

I bet the PCB's will be significantly less complex. So, they may be able to manufacture faster and have their QA ninja do what QA ninja's do faster.

BTW: You forgot to account for BTC going to $100/BTC...so, there's that. Cool

||bit

hero member

Activity: 924

Merit: 506

Quote from: SgtSpike on June 22, 2012, 07:50:04 PM

The difference between receiving a few SC Singles a week before everyone else could equate to thousands of dollars. The difference in receiving a 1TH/s machine, tens of thousands. And the network will be saturated very quickly, considering it would only take 12 of the 1TH/s minirigs to double the difficulty.

That's why people are clamoring to be the first in line. I am too. Wink

If they open pre-orders, they should do so at a set date and time. I don't want to miss out just because I'm sleeping in my timezone while other people are awake.

You may be right on how quickly it affects the network. And on getting upfront, I'm with ya! About the order, to be fair, I don't think I or anyone else deserves to be first in line b/c we own BFL equipment. We won't be at a disadvanatge for having it if we are not first in line. Just think of it as cash you can spend, but that cash can mine in the mean time. Tongue

||bit

DutchBrat

hero member

Activity: 868

Merit: 1000

My solution:

Open up a pre–order list from Monday till mid–july, then close it.

This will give everyone ample time to order

Make an inventory of what has been ordered and start producing exactly that amount

When all the pre–Orders have been produced, pack them and ship them off at the same day in october, be it jalapenos, singles or rigs.

That way everone will receive their products around the same time

BrimStone

member

Activity: 71

Merit: 10

What might be a good idea for BFL would be to only allow a certain number of units to be ordered by each customer per month. This would spread out their order to delivery channel better and allow most people to at least get something quickly.

They could even reward existing customers by increasing the number of units you can order based on the trade ins. If you have more to trade, you can order more.

This would stabilize the flow of new ASICS into the wild which would not produce a "shock to the system" with all the new horsepower coming online all at once.

Cablez

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1000

I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...

Wouldn't it be better for almost everyone involved if they just release the Jalapenos in October, then come Jan 1 start to sell/deliver the singles with the SC-rigs coming for sale in March or April. This way everyone can ease into the higher difficulties without too much grief and fear.

I think this way everyone gets a piece of the pie in a less chaotic way and on BFLs end I don't think they will have any competition in this space in that timeframe. Win/Win

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

Quote from: DILLIGAF on June 22, 2012, 08:14:24 PM

Quote from: MrTeal on June 22, 2012, 08:08:32 PM

I think the initial deliveries of SC will be quite profitable for awhile, if for no other reason than BFL's ability to deliver them. Even if the singles do 40GH/s, it would take ~425 of them to double the network. Let's say the ship 425 at the end of October in the first batch and that at that point the difficulty is about the same as it is now, as is the price. Within a couple days, difficulty doubles. If no other singles ship out for two weeks, even with double difficulty that single would pay for itself in 2 1/2 weeks. Now imagine they ship 425 more in November and 425 more in late December. The block reward halves, and difficulty is now 6.8M. Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off.

Given BFL's previous supply issues, does anyone think they'll be able to put out more than almost 1300 singles in a 3 month period? I think the initial runs of singles will be massively profitable for the early adopters.

You neglect the scenario of the th/s boxes shipping first if that happens then your rosy picture here turns to shit and if any amount of them a week ship then your profitable for a week or two at most until you reach the point of never seeing a return at about week three.

Assuming they do the same thing they are with the current minirigs, I don't see it being much different. They're still going to have 25 singles cards in a minirig, and while they may not be ASIC constrained, they probably will be constrained by building and testing the units.

rjk, I wouldn't be surprised if they hit those numbers too, or even exceeded them by a margin. I don't think they will, but it's certainly possible. I would be absolutely shocked if the doomsday scenarios here play out where people are jockeying for a few extra days of hashing before the network explodes and difficulty goes up tenfold.

DILLIGAF

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: MrTeal on June 22, 2012, 08:08:32 PM

I think the initial deliveries of SC will be quite profitable for awhile, if for no other reason than BFL's ability to deliver them. Even if the singles do 40GH/s, it would take ~425 of them to double the network. Let's say the ship 425 at the end of October in the first batch and that at that point the difficulty is about the same as it is now, as is the price. Within a couple days, difficulty doubles. If no other singles ship out for two weeks, even with double difficulty that single would pay for itself in 2 1/2 weeks. Now imagine they ship 425 more in November and 425 more in late December. The block reward halves, and difficulty is now 6.8M. Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off.

Given BFL's previous supply issues, does anyone think they'll be able to put out more than almost 1300 singles in a 3 month period? I think the initial runs of singles will be massively profitable for the early adopters.

You neglect the scenario of the th/s boxes shipping first if that happens then your rosy picture here turns to shit and if any amount of them a week ship then your profitable for a week or two at most until you reach the point of never seeing a return at about week three.

rjk

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

1ngldh

Quote from: MrTeal on June 22, 2012, 08:08:32 PM

Given BFL's previous supply issues, does anyone think they'll be able to put out more than almost 1300 singles in a 3 month period? I think the initial runs of singles will be massively profitable for the early adopters.

Not knowing the current sales numbers, it's hard to say. However, if I made a guess that the ones actually posting on the forum that they have gotten a device represents one fourth of customers (number pulled out of my ass), then I would say they might be able to hit that especially since they have an opportunity now to tune the production line.

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

I think the initial deliveries of SC will be quite profitable for awhile, if for no other reason than BFL's ability to deliver them. Even if the singles do 40GH/s, it would take ~425 of them to double the network. Let's say the ship 425 at the end of October in the first batch and that at that point the difficulty is about the same as it is now, as is the price. Within a couple days, difficulty doubles. If no other singles ship out for two weeks, even with double difficulty that single would pay for itself in 2 1/2 weeks. Now imagine they ship 425 more in November and 425 more in late December. The block reward halves, and difficulty is now 6.8M. Difficulty would probably be lower as GPUs shut off due to being unprofitable, but let's run with it. Each single is still earning almost 3BTC a day, and the November ones are also paid off.

Given BFL's previous supply issues, does anyone think they'll be able to put out more than almost 1300 singles in a 3 month period? I think the initial runs of singles will be massively profitable for the early adopters.

P_Shep

legendary

Activity: 1795

Merit: 1208

This is not OK.

Put me down for 6 SC singles please

BinaryMage

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Ad astra.

Quote from: SgtSpike on June 22, 2012, 07:50:04 PM

Quote from: ||bit on June 22, 2012, 07:30:07 PM

Quote from: BFL on June 22, 2012, 03:32:39 PM

We've been working with Bit-Pay for a BTC exclusive order form. This is meant to both promote the good services of Bit-Pay and give dedicated miners a bit of an advantage in getting in position. We'll have that posted later tonight. Alternate payment methods of Dwolla and BankWire will come shortly thereafter.

Please help... We're respectful of the significance of order position, but we can't think of any good way to organize it other than opening it up to orders and letting it go as it may.

Another alternative is to go odd / even. Odd being consecutive down the priority list and even being a random selection from orders that month.

Any thoughts on this?

One thought. It's kinda cool that you asked for such feedback.

To address the issue:
# Since BFL will allow trade-ins to remain in miners possession (for mining) upto the time the ASIC products are ready to ship, there shouldn't be any complaints. There's no reason to penalize the people that did not buy BFL stuff simply because they were reasonably skeptical of this new company. And it's not like the ASIC hardware will saturate the network by the end of the year.
# Randomizing deliveries per month doesn't seem the right path. People like orderliness more than randomness when they have to wait. What would you prefer, knowing for sure your plane will be late or knowing it has a 50/50 chance of being late?

My opinion is it is simple & reasonable to do first-come first-serve on the orders. No drama should neccessarily develop - imo.

||bit

The difference between receiving a few SC Singles a week before everyone else could equate to thousands of dollars. The difference in receiving a 1TH/s machine, tens of thousands. And the network will be saturated very quickly, considering it would only take 12 of the 1TH/s minirigs to double the difficulty.

That's why people are clamoring to be the first in line. I am too. Wink

If they open pre-orders, they should do so at a set date and time. I don't want to miss out just because I'm sleeping in my timezone while other people are awake.

I agree with this. Just opening them with no prior notice makes it a game of chance. On that note, make sure to shore up your web infrastructure; the load could be an issue.

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

Quote from: ||bit on June 22, 2012, 07:30:07 PM

Quote from: BFL on June 22, 2012, 03:32:39 PM

We've been working with Bit-Pay for a BTC exclusive order form. This is meant to both promote the good services of Bit-Pay and give dedicated miners a bit of an advantage in getting in position. We'll have that posted later tonight. Alternate payment methods of Dwolla and BankWire will come shortly thereafter.

Please help... We're respectful of the significance of order position, but we can't think of any good way to organize it other than opening it up to orders and letting it go as it may.

Another alternative is to go odd / even. Odd being consecutive down the priority list and even being a random selection from orders that month.

Any thoughts on this?

One thought. It's kinda cool that you asked for such feedback.

To address the issue:
# Since BFL will allow trade-ins to remain in miners possession (for mining) upto the time the ASIC products are ready to ship, there shouldn't be any complaints. There's no reason to penalize the people that did not buy BFL stuff simply because they were reasonably skeptical of this new company. And it's not like the ASIC hardware will saturate the network by the end of the year.
# Randomizing deliveries per month doesn't seem the right path. People like orderliness more than randomness when they have to wait. What would you prefer, knowing for sure your plane will be late or knowing it has a 50/50 chance of being late?

My opinion is it is simple & reasonable to do first-come first-serve on the orders. No drama should neccessarily develop - imo.

||bit

The difference between receiving a few SC Singles a week before everyone else could equate to thousands of dollars. The difference in receiving a 1TH/s machine, tens of thousands. And the network will be saturated very quickly, considering it would only take 12 of the 1TH/s minirigs to double the difficulty.

That's why people are clamoring to be the first in line. I am too. Wink

If they open pre-orders, they should do so at a set date and time. I don't want to miss out just because I'm sleeping in my timezone while other people are awake.

||bit

hero member

Activity: 924

Merit: 506

Quote from: BFL on June 22, 2012, 03:32:39 PM

We've been working with Bit-Pay for a BTC exclusive order form. This is meant to both promote the good services of Bit-Pay and give dedicated miners a bit of an advantage in getting in position. We'll have that posted later tonight. Alternate payment methods of Dwolla and BankWire will come shortly thereafter.

Please help... We're respectful of the significance of order position, but we can't think of any good way to organize it other than opening it up to orders and letting it go as it may.

Another alternative is to go odd / even. Odd being consecutive down the priority list and even being a random selection from orders that month.

Any thoughts on this?

One thought. It's kinda cool that you asked for such feedback.

To address the issue:
# Since BFL will allow trade-ins to remain in miners possession (for mining) upto the time the ASIC products are ready to ship, there shouldn't be any complaints. There's no reason to penalize the people that did not buy BFL stuff simply because they were reasonably skeptical of this new company. And it's not like the ASIC hardware will saturate the network by the end of the year.
# Randomizing deliveries per month doesn't seem the right path. People like orderliness more than randomness when they have to wait. What would you prefer, knowing for sure your plane will be late or knowing it has a 50/50 chance of being late?

My opinion is it is simple & reasonable to do first-come first-serve on the orders. No drama should neccessarily develop - imo.

||bit

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

Quote from: craked5 on June 22, 2012, 07:16:37 PM

Ok BFL i just have one question! What can be done to future costumers in Europe? I really dont want to pay one third of the price in taxes. Please do something about this!

Move to a non-socialist country.

Topic: BitForce SC - release notes - page 5. (Read 12998 times)