Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order - page 284. (Read 531298 times)

I would almost never tell someone not to mine, since it is fun as a hobby, but I have a counterpoint to your scenario.
Say, I took $2080 for a miner and converted it to buying $40 btc worth each week-easily done.
if btc goes up, i am ahead (in $$ profit), this is clear.
if btc goes down, then i will get an average weekly price over the year.
If, for example, BTC average price over next 12 mo is $400, i will be able to buy approx 5.2 BTC without any mining costs.
At $400 mining cost in hosting (at 9c) would be $95 vs $245 production with current difficulty throughout a year. $150/mo profit. $150x12=1800, which is 4.5 BTC vs 5.2 BTC in alternative scenario. Close, but no cigar.

That said, I almost bought b3, but by the time btc reached the wallet (non coinbase), it was gone, which shows that even when I thought that it was not optimal, I was temped (when it was 2.6 btc, admittedly).

You know Bill changed his his "title"?? 

It's Bill Nye the Monsanto Guy now 

He's a piece of shit bought & paid for Corp spokesman now 

Nice quote from Mr. Nye

I have been playing in the game since 2012 and I have to think I will stick around for a few more years.

Do people really not have anything better to do than go around telling people that they're idiots for mining? As though someone who does not own miners, and thinks it's a stupid idea, has any opinion worth hearing.

I bought miners, which are inflationary as there are always more being made, to mine a deflationary currency. You haven't for a fraction of a second considered every scenario possible in this situation, and yes, it involves gambling on the future.

Fact: Purchasing miners has been a win for me so far, and the future looks sunny, I am under no obligation to "show the proof". I could hardly care less what your (or pretty much anyone's) opinion on my mining operation is.

"Everyone you will ever meet knows something you don't." - Bill Nye

wrong some of the time.

look at the case below it is all about price and diff and show that the two combined has meaning huge meaning .




2000 usd in bank I buy 3.2 coins as I believe you.

coins tank to 200 usd .  still have my 3.2 coins  they stay tanks for a year.

due to tank in price diff drops a lot an in the next year I mine 8 coins.

so 1 year later  my 3.2 coins purchased  for 2000  since price stays tanked at 200 a coin buy and hold I have 3.2 x 200 = 640 in fiat or  3.2 coins.

vs my investment in a miner which cost  has earned 8 coins. so 8 x 200 = 1600 usd and I have the miner.

and I can show you this can happen: start on sept 26 2014 and go to nov 23 2015


that is a 422 day time frame with 32 adjustments  we did about 2.3% 
So if we do 2.3% for the next 20 to 32 jumps you would be wrong
if price  drops from 640 to 350.



Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s

Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s

Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s

May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s

Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s

Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s

Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s

Fun? Pissing money out the window?

Buy and hold. The end.

agreed. it was bound to happen, but there was something magical about the days when expensive, low-consumption devices meant having >10kW of power draw meant you were a significant part of the network. My small DIY stack of S1 units at home at one point made up something like 0.0003% of the network and did quite well for themselves even at $0.12/kwh

each generation since has been geared towards power-and-ignore systems that you need dozens of, and cheap electricity for, to make much return. But with that has come the concept that mining hardware is a 2-4 year investment now that we have 14nm and underwent the halving. the easy money is gone

Exactly. My S7s still did not earn the number of btc I paid for them, but it is getting close.
people are upset when this is mentioned, but hobbyists in part moved to the 'other' coin, where mining is not producing this much noise.
if your miner is in hosting, there is no 'connection' to it and almost no tinkering, making it less of a hobby, really.

lets see your math. with 3%/jump difficulty rise (its a bit low to adjust for the fact we might see an initial 10-20% drop due to the halving) and power cost of $0.07/kwh it will take a little over two years to break even, and unless <11nm is produced by then the miner will be competitive with the newest-gen until ~2020, where difficulty will likely become fairly stable, mined by anyone paying <$0.06/kwh (all-in: power, rent,wages,etc). Any shift in price will likely have a similar equilibrium effect on hashrate/difficulty.

3.2BTC/13TH is a bad price at >2yrs breakeven. 2.8BTC/12TH is slightly more sensible (a bit less than 2yrs breakeven), but still high. Its likely we see prices fall further if/when a competitor gets to market and bitmain starts building more than they can sell. But if you had free power, both units could pay for themselves within a year, and produce over a bitcoin in profit during the second year.

tldr; if you pay <$0.05/kwh its arguably worth it. If you pay <$0.03/kwh you'd be silly not to be mining (perhaps with an S7)

+1

wat?
WTF does difficulty or price have to do with anything?  If you have BTC3.2 and spend it on one of these miners you are turning BTC3.2 into some amount LESS than BTC3.2.  CASE CLOSED.
You cannot justify it by talking about difficulty or price or any other random event that have zero bearing on the math.  Buying one of these miners takes an amount of bitcoin and turns it into LESS bitcoin than what you started with.
WAKE UP PEOPLE.

S9-B7 3.2 BTC???

I've been mining since CPU days and still have two S7s up, but believe the above is not a good investment unless you have free electricity.

But, it's OK to spend money on a hobby. I have a friend who spends $450/month playing golf.

just a thought but my knowledge is limited compared to most here.  If you ran three miner off one psu.. what if you had voltage drop which would increase the amperage running thru the miner .. could be this scenario.  http://ask.metafilter.com/244859/Voltage-drop-amperage-increase


"If you have switch mode power supplies (e.g. practically all IT equipment these days) then when the voltage drops they will pull more current to keep up their output. If your voltage sags a bit because of too high a demand then they all pull more current and you're boned."

Best regards
d57heinz

One useful post ...

1. You are making points which show you to be extremely immature and inexperienced with mining equipment, electronics, electricity, and this forum.
2. You are arguing with Sidehack and Finsky. I recommend you read some of their contributions to the mining community. This alone = see #1
3. The post I quoted is you thinking you are replying to Finsky but it is someone else. Again, see #1

I recommend you take a step back, read, and learn a bit more about mining equipment before replying to anyone or posting in the hardware section.

Anything else = see #1 and if you do not care or understand then you are obviously too thick or a troll.

This is not a CoD / MMORPG lobby chat.
Please attempt to understand the difference.

And on difficulty I'm a tad optimistic that some old gear will finally be taken offline.  I think there are some that have been running a LONG time.    Now these places will still have cheap electricity but hopefully some old gear comes down when new gear goes up.

So I still think gear coming offline could be good for miners.  But on the flip-side if they all upgrade.... could see bigger hashrate gain.  But I'm hoping some go offline and do not upgrade.  Do not know how realistic this is though as they have info-structure in most of these places.... so upgrades are likely.

None of us really know what will happen. My number is very simplistic and based on the last halving event.

Phil, I think you've put more thought into the problem by trying to estimate the number of various models that will become unprofitable. That's definitely another way to look at it.

One thing I do know is that it's very tempting to be overly optimistic regarding difficulty speculation. After being burned early on, I try to be disciplined and pessimistic.

Although I too have been guilty of wiggling the difficulty down in the mining calculators, just to see if I can eke out ROI if the best case happens

Anyway, I don't want to turn this into a difficulty speculation thread though. Your difficulty guessing thread is the right place to talk about this.

I see the 1500ph becoming 1250ph.  but WTF do i really know?

My math had difficulty dropping to 77-78% of current with a slow pull up through September.

HOLD bitcoin until 800...

EASY ROI by November...

Am I wrong???

EDIT:  My electric is .058 -.096 KWH (variable spot market -- can spike higher if I'm not watching and careful)

This. Well said.

Needless to say, I'm not buying either B6 or B7 for precisely the reason that they are very unlikely to earn back the BTC put into them.

Sure the difficulty will go down after the halving (in under 17 hours at the time of this writing). But based simply on the history of the last halving, my guess is that we'll see no more than a 10% drop in difficulty over the next 30 days, then it will be back to where it is now. That won't be enough to pull in BTC ROI to the point where I'm comfortable.

I just wish that people would stop buying what is clearly an overpriced miner. Everyone who's doing that is just lining Bitmain's pockets with insane profit and delaying the inevitable price drop that the rest of us are waiting for.