Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order - page 55. (Read 531164 times)

I don't think the profitability counter graph is accounting for HODL. I think if you are counting on cashing out for a revenue stream, then yes, it's reflective, and that's what a lot of the bigger miners are doing, because they have such large investment. Or a little guy with a few machines trying to make a little extra. I'm getting s9's to mine and hold. Buying 10k btc is a one way dead end street. Spend 10k on 2-3 s9's, put them in a spare room, pay the electric from my regular job, and in a couple years, let's see what btc price is. Years later when I calculate my profit I'll ignore my electric costs to make my profit look better to me 

I think Bitmain took a great advantage of this dip. Bitcoin dips, price per bitcoin falls.

People pay a lot more coin for each miner.

1 month passes and their bitcoin stockpile has fucking exploded in value.

It's so dirty

Sorry it’s late and my son is sick, bound for an error or two. I fudged the power. The great thing about mining under a business is that although you have a tax burden for capital gains, all your expenses incurred to achieve these gains make it very profitable. What other company can you start up with an ROI under 6 months?

I took your .045 monthly btc earnings (multiplied them by 20 for 20 s9s purchased in q1 2018). .9BTC x 23.9%(tx fees conservative average for entire upcoming year) (.2151) = 1.1151BTC a month. My commercial power rates for my company mining are .099/kwh. This is what you get on your spreadsheet. Of course cable/cooling is excluded but that is minimal where I reside. Also as a business, the cost of the purchase of said hardware/rent/electrical/cable is all tax deductible. It still is way more profitable than just flipping on ebay when you factor all these things in.
https://imgur.com/UJK43PZ

Even if you literally just purchased 20 machines right this second to mine from bitmain. The overall percentage of revenue coming from transaction fees according to blockchain is 23.39%. Regardless of difficulty increase these online calculators are not accounting for nearly a quarter of a miners revenue stream.

It would be very profitable if you bought miners last year, for sure.

If bitcoin mining isn't profitable for you right now, you either aren't using the right miners/the right amount of miners, or are doing something else totally wrong.

Thanks for the forecast.  Does this take into account any speculation of the next generation miners that will raise the collective hashrate?  I would love the excel spreadsheet to manipulate some price speculation of my own.

I know I’ve said it yesterday but I’ll repeat it again today: Unless I am missing something, this is just crazy!

I really can’t see why you would buy an S9 now, the total bitcoin network hashrate is growing faster than ever, so unless BTC value surges again (massively) this year you just won’t get your money back on your investment.
The only money to be made now is in selling miners, not in mining!
After a few months of mining I just sold my used 13TH S9 on Ebay for $2600 more than I bought it, I will be putting that profit into Bitcoin. There is no way that an S9 will make another $2600 as of this point in time, unless BTC surges as said before

But don’t just take my word for it, please have a look at the numbers below.



What I’ve done is forecast the total network hashrate for 2018 based on 2017 numbers. I’ve used basic Excel forecasting to do this.
As you can see, I’ve created a forecast, an upper bound forecast (pessimistic in this case) and lower bound forecast (optimistic in this case).
Then I’ve created 3 tables predicting how much Bitcoin one S9 will make every month based on this forecast, how much revenue that is un USD based on the current BTC/USD exchange rate and how much profit you would make based on a $150/month power cost for 1 S9.

Now, based on these numbers the only way an S9 that starts mining today will pay back your investment, is if the network hashrate follows the lower bound (optimistic) forecast which ends up flattening out again, looking at the graph alone that just seems very unlikely!

Both the standard and upper bound forecast predict profit to go negative by the end of the year.

I’m happy to share this spreadsheet with anybody who wants to play with the numbers.
Bottom line,
My bet is: sell your S9’s while you can make a good profit on them, hold BTC and wait for the next opportunity when this madness dies down a bit (or perhaps the next generation of miners?)
Of course, to each their own. Who knows what the bitcoin value will be by the end of the year and that said, you might just enjoy mining, I know I did :-).

Its a March 20 batch, so same as yesterdays (March11-20 was yesterdays batch). Looks like bitmain wanted to take advantage of the free btc during the dip. I am happy, now have 20 s9s coming through all of march to start phase 1 of my new mining location.

Has this situation happened before?

What happens when mining isn't profitable? People shut off least profitable miners, diff goes down, and profits come back online for the more efficient miners? S9 may be phased out by q3 or so IF and thats a big if dmint comes online. Small hobby miners and some farms will have to close shop.