Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order - page 53. (Read 531164 times)

Pretty sure they make next to nothing anymore depending on what you pay for power where you are, see:
https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=4700.00&p=1293.00&pc=0.2&pf=0.00&d=2227847638503.63000000&r=12.50000000&er=12294.11000000&hc=0.00

Darn close, I'd have to add everything up. Initially I was having so much fun I didn't do much record keeping. Anyway why would the spreadsheet only be for an S9? I mean difficulty and hashrate don't care right? It's simply how much I paid for the machine vs. how much it can produce? I do agree that earnings can and will be affected by difficulty, that is a given. I am just trying to understand how a machine can go non-profitable in such a short amount of time. Because again if that's true then S7's or any old miner for that matter should not be profitable either.

Darn close, I'd have to add everything up. Initially I was having so much fun I didn't do much record keeping. Anyway why would the spreadsheet only be for an S9? I mean difficulty and hashrate don't care right? It's simply how much I paid for the machine vs. how much it can produce? I do agree that earnings can and will be affected by difficulty, that is a given. I am just trying to understand how a machine can go non-profitable in such a short amount of time. Because again if that's true then S7's or any old miner for that matter should not be profitable either.

Just look at the numbers, even the most optimistic scenario where total network hashrate growth (and thus also difficulty growth) decreases only makes you a small profit by the end of the year. And be honest, is there anyone in their right minds who believes that will happen? Hashrate/difficulty has never gone down other then a blip here and there, it has always increased and rate at which it increases has always increased as well.

Again, bitcoin exchange rate has nothing to do with it because if you put that money in btc now, it would equally go up/down.

I don't think you have understood what this graph shows, because it does account for your HODL strategy, let me explain.

First here's the numbers again for a single S9, starting up January 2018 (I've added a few more columns to make it clearer):
https://s13.postimg.org/jghsyuxp3/network_hashrate_prediction.jpg

It's all about the total network hashrate (and corresponding difficulty off course but they are dependent on eachother so I could have used either here, I chose hashrate).

The spreadsheet forecasts what the total network hash rate will do in 3 different scenarios:
- follow current trend (middle line)
- continue to grow faster and faster as it has always done in the past (top line, pessimistic outlook miners)
- stop growing and decrease again over the course of the year (bottom line, optimistic outlook for miners)

Based on this it predicts for the 3 different scenarios how much Bitcoin an S9 will make every month of 2018.
Up to this point this is all very solid data, you can pick your favorite scenario or anywhere in between, hashrate is not likely to go outside of these outer lines. You can get a really good idea of how much BTC your S9 will make every month over the coming year.

Now from this point onwards it becomes speculative as it depends on BTC/USD exchange rate, but that does not matter if you're trying to compare with a HODL scenario. I'll explain that later.
First I'll explain the rest of the spreadsheet:

The next columns show how much your miner will make you in USD based on today's echange rate, how much profit you get from that substracting power cost, and what your subsequent position is each month against your initial investment of your S9 (I've estimated $3000 to get an S9 incl. PSU into the country with shipping, tax etc.)

If you now look at the 3 position columns, only in the optimistic scenario (where hashrate stops increasing and eventually decreases again over the year) do you actually pay back your miner and end up in the green. Even following today's trend does not pay back your miner over the course of the year and by the end of the year you're only making $14/month so you never will either (I could add a few months to the spreadsheet to confirm this).

So to come back to the HODL comparison,
If yo put that $3000 into BTC today at $11500/BTC exchange rate, regardless of whether it goes up or down you will always remain in front compared to the current trend and pessimistic scenarios because the value of the initial investment fluctuates with the exchange rate, if you buy an S9 it doesn't (in fact it decreases because it depreciates but lets ignore that for now).

Now if you're claiming that you're not paying back your S9 investment with the BTC you earn and you're not paying the power cost with the BTC you earn but from another source of income, well, then in the other case where you just invest $3000 in BTC you should also convert that money from your other source of income to BTC every month and add that to the initial investment, so that investment grows equally from that other source of income. Otherwise you're not comparing apples with apples.

Again, only in the optimistic scenario where hashrate actually stops growing, is it economically sensible to invest in an S9 now at these prices and current hashrate growth, unless you have access to really cheap power.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong somewhere in my predictions/assumptions, but for now I can't see any way that would be the case.
Anyway, here's the adjusted spreadsheet again for those interested in playing with the numbers:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/v1m3xac87ptylj0/hash%20forecast.xlsx?dl=0

I don't think the profitability counter graph is accounting for HODL. I think if you are counting on cashing out for a revenue stream, then yes, it's reflective, and that's what a lot of the bigger miners are doing, because they have such large investment. Or a little guy with a few machines trying to make a little extra. I'm getting s9's to mine and hold. Buying 10k btc is a one way dead end street. Spend 10k on 2-3 s9's, put them in a spare room, pay the electric from my regular job, and in a couple years, let's see what btc price is. Years later when I calculate my profit I'll ignore my electric costs to make my profit look better to me  

You couldn't possibly know that in a month or two the S9 will make little or no money at all.

The price of bitcoin could continue dropping, the difficulty continue rising, and the S9 would still be profitable, so how in the world is it that you think in 2 months it will be making little to no money at all?

That's exactly what I'm trying to explain here and the numbers show this so very clearly. Only in the most optimistic scenarios will your miners make some money for some time.

For those who have S9's on hand now, new, used or coming soon, sell'em now!!!
You will make a massive profit given the prices they sell for on Ebay right now.
Your miner will never make that kind of money, the numbers are just not in your favor no matter how you put it.

But, wait a month or 2 and they will be worth peanuts and your miner will be making little or no money at all.

Again, It's really NOT about the bitcoin price, it's about the growing network hashrate and given Bitmain has been dumping S9's like there is no tomorrow in the last month or two, the most pessimistic line on the graph above might well not be pessimistic enough.

I made this chart a little while ago when I was deciding whether or not to sell my S9 miner (which I did at a massive profit), and looking at what the network hashrate has actually done since then: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/5y?t=l,
It appears to be tracking well above the middle line towards the pessimistic line.
(I had it at 14.9E at Jan 1st, it was actually 15.4E)

Its been like this many times in the past.  People use all kinds of weird logic and math to come up with awesome profit scenario's to justify mining.  Mining rigs fly off the proverbial shelf with manufacture's getting interest free loans from investomers!  Most newbs don't understand a basic fact about Bitcoin POW mining.  Mining was designed as a "near" zero sum game and the network is constantly making its way towards that goal.

Another often over looked perspective is that mining can be looked at as a bet AGAINST diff increase.  Based on available data this doesn't like a good bet to me right now!  I think a lot of people will find this out over the coming months!