Topic: Brasileirão 2022 - Brazilian Championship Serie A - page 9. (Read 6728 times)

You're welcome!

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Flamengo just lost the game against Fluminense, and therefore, their chances of being the champion of the Brasileirão decreased

If Internacional loses or draws the game tomorrow against Atletico-GO and Palmeiras wins the game against Santos, Palmeiras will substantially increase their chances of being champions.

A total chaos in flamengo and fluminense game four red cards with two for each team, it seems that flamengo players were angry for being behind against one of their contenders for the top spots it was a really important game which ended with fluminense winning the game and the second spot, this is a great result for palmeiras if they manage to beat santos.

The truth is that I am not inclined for now to make a very big bet, I would like Internacional to do well, but it is something that depends a lot on them and how they can confront the game, for me they have everything to win , I don't think you will be disappointed, these people know very well what they are playing for and it is the best opportunity to show what they are made of, don't believe it, there are people who don't believe in them, they can get a big surprise, for me Santos It's good, in fact I've seen them play up close, they're really good, I also like it because there's a Venezuelan playing and he really does it very well.

Thank you very much for those statistics and for all the mathematical approaches you made, without a doubt Palmeiras can be a bit tough for what is to come, I think this is a way to motivate them and make them think only of winning, not drawing Of course, All the math is still missing in case the other teams behind Palmeiras lose, although this is a very minimal possibility, Palmieras at this point must be thinking of defeating any team that comes their way. I really would not like to compete against a Palmeiras with those positions, because I would see him as a hungry lion and eager to have it all.

I saw that several people are curious about the possibilities of Palmeiras or other teams to be champions.

I performed these calculation

Situation
Palmeiras = 54 points
International = 46 points
Flamengo = 45 points
Fluminense = 45 points

We know that:
win = 3 points
Tie = 1 point
Defeat = 0 point

We still have 12 games left to finish the championship, so the maximum amount a team can get until then is 36 points (12 games * 3 points/win)

let's go to practice
If Internacional wins all 12 games (12 games x 3 points/win = 36 points), it will have 82 points (46 points + 36 points = 82 points)

For Palmeiras to reach that amount, they will have to win 10 of the 12 games and get a score of 84 points, with 2 games he can lose.

But for that, Internacional will need to win the 12 games, and Palmeiras will lose 3 games for Internacional to be champion of the Brasileirão

Palmeiras will need to win 10 of the 12 games, that is, they will have to obtain 83.3% of victory from these remaining games.

Well, I know that these calculations I made are not accurate or important, but I made them to have an idea of ​​the possibilities that could happen at the end of this championship!

probably if there are no unexpected things (are there black swans in soccer?) we'll see Palmeiras winning the championship this year!
quite cool
good for them!

Despite 3 draws and 2 wins in the last 5 games, Palmeiras has remained well isolated at the top of the league table.
Certainly the 8 points of advancement will help them to improve in the next games, as they are now only focused on the Brasileirão. And they will certainly be able to manage the 11 games left for the end of the season.

small typo there, you menat Flamengo for the 3rd one with biggest probability, 4%, right?

I didn't know UFMG was into calculating the odds of the Brasileirão
quite interesting
thanks for sharing

Haha, Palmeiras ir the arch enemy of my team Corinthians, but I have to admit they are doing a great work last years, I remember the era of Parmalat sponsor and Luiz Felipe Scolari as the coach, they won a lot of titles including Libertadores, but lost to Manchester that year.
Santos is also good, but last years were not so good to remember.
It's curious to see that you already played a match in Brazil, it's so hot in here, and Manaus is hotter. No doubt that this is a key factor to a lot of teams who play here, and in some countries of South America there's altitude too.




Oh, they are famous (UFMG), they run a lot of numbers to journals and television.
It's good to know the numbers before you place some bets, math never lies, and can help you to earn some money or at least to make you be more confident.

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Yesterday I earn some money with Corinthians, finally haha, they won against Fluminense on Copa do Brasil, 3 x 0.
I bet on a simple victory, paying 2.50. I recovered some money I lost in a 4 rounds in a row 

Speaking of probabilities, I really like to follow the website of UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais) which has a lot of statistical data about the Brazilian championship Series A.
Currently they are pointing that Palmeiras has more than 83% of chances of being champion, after that comes Internacional with only 5% of chances, and them Palmeiras with 4%.

If there is any doubt, my favorite teams are only limited to two, Palmeiras and Santos, Flamengo I cannot deny that they have had a good performance, because playing in Brazil is not easy at all, I have only had the opportunity to play once in their courts, but it was noon and with the incandescent sun in Manaus, I only lasted but 10 minutes on the field because I got too exhausted, it's hard to play there, now these teams like Palmeiras that are all terrain that have to go to South America where they have to quickly adapt to the altitude, to countries that are cold, is something I admire, that's why for me Palmeiras will be the undeniable champion.


Well, I have always been a big fan of Palmeiras and Santos, another team that I really like the way they play is Flamengo, of course I think they still have a long way to go to reach Palmeiras, although these teams have much more history, especially Santos, and it's like you say there are still games that could be able to change everything, and the Brazilian teams are very good, I don't know, but I think that in the Brasileirao you can live many more emcoinoes, of course I sometimes compare the emcoines that stand out as in the 2nd Bundesliga, which the latest teams are very decisive and usually play like never before.

There are 20 teams, with 2 matches against each other, so it's 38 matches total.
All teams played 26 matches until now, and there's 12 remaining.
36 points in dispute for each team.

I like to see the math behind the championship and probabilities

In this year, Palmeiras have to focus on 81 points to have 100% of chances to be the champion, but usually a team needs something like 73 or 74 points to guarantee 1st place.

yes, 19% is not so small chance of somebody else winning
not like the probability of a meteor hitting our homes while we go out for coffee which is probably <0.0001%

The championship ends on November 13th, a sunday
we have 7 sundays until then
I'm not sure how long it is each "round"

As long as it is mathematically possible for another team to reach first, victory is not guaranteed.
I also see some difficulty with Palmeiras now starting to lose several points in order to be overtaken by another team. But in football anything can happen, and it wouldn't be unheard of.

Now how many games are left until the end of the season?

wow, I just checked, and I read a news, Palmeiras has almost 81% chance of winning the Brasileirao!

I know that, but anything can happen, but this is a very high percentage, unless there are unforeseen events for some other team to be champion and ""steal"" the title from Palmeiras.
Let's see what can happen by the end of November

Projeção indica Palmeiras já classificado na Libertadores e 81% de chances de título no Brasileirão (Projection indicates Palmeiras already classified in Libertadores and 81% of chances of title in the Brasileirão) - https://ge.globo.com/espiao-estatistico/noticia/2022/09/12/palmeiras-se-classifica-para-libertadores-2023-e-chances-de-ser-campeao-do-brasileirao-vao-a-81percent.ghtml

nothing is guaranteed, but as rdluffy pointed out, 79% is quite high chance
only worth to bet against Palmeiras winning if there are great odds on that.

we'll see what is going to happen

Wel... this will be an important match for both teams! And I have no doubt that it will be an excellent game, and I hope that this time Sao Paulo will take this victory against Flamengo lol

It's positive, but i don't think it's worth to bet on Palmeiras only earning 1.20 of odds.

About endurance, I think Palmeiras is better than Flamengo right now, they only have Brasileiro to worry and play.
Flamengo will have to play Copa do Brasil and Libertadores, so, it's 3 or 4 more matches to play plus the psychological part of play 2 finals, and I think Palmeiras have this great advantage.
There are some journals in Brazil saying the same thing, Flamengo is starting to looking tired, 3 competitions at the same time is not easy, even with good players and well prepared.

The next match of Flamengo will be versus Sao Paulo, in Copa do Brasil 14/09

Palmeiras' odds continue to be positive, and they have really won the league games.
But, they've been winning games by the slimmest of margins. Which shows how tired the team is and is accusing the large number of games it has had this season.

Will they continue to endure this final stretch of the season?

Yes, exactly! Well at least some bets I won, others I didn't lol
Flamengo and Corinthians missed a great opportunity to touch Palmeiras in this championship

I just found out, in the next Brasileirão games, we will have several matches that will be unpredictable, as most of the teams are close to each other in the championship classification!

During the week I will observe some events regarding these teams, so when aproach one or two days earlier, I can have a better perception to bet.

So, it was a draw hahaha

Sao Paulo 1 x 1 Corinthians
Corinthians lost position and now it's the 5th, what a shame



gagux, we both lost the prediction about Coritiba vs Atletico, like I said, I'm glad I didn't make any bet in this round, to many unpredictable matches in my opinion, and the ones like Palmeiras, did't pay well to take any risk
I think I'm going to put some bets on the next matches of Copa do Brasil on thursday, let's see.