Two great articles
http://www.coindesk.com/microscope-economic-environmental-costs-bitcoin-mining/
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/14282/mining-2/
Topic: Break even difficulty by hardware efficiency (power cost = value of BTC) (Read 18881 times)
June 21, 2014, 08:44:49 AM
May 25, 2014, 04:14:21 AM
great thread 
May 18, 2014, 11:22:26 PM
interesting or bleak?
With the quickly increasing difficulty and the increasing number of ASIC creators and more efficient ASICs, I'll go with the latter.
May 18, 2014, 10:29:39 PM
Getting closer. The break even points in the OP are based on $100 exchange rate. At $400 USD per BTC it would be around 100 billion difficulty, at $500 it is 125 billion. Things will get real interesting over the next six months or so.
May 18, 2014, 09:49:37 PM
So it looks pretty safe to say that the network will be less than 250 PH/s using the 28nm technology at the current prices.
The replacement cost is calculated based on all hashing power coming from a single design so it shouldn't be taken as likely but more an upper bound. I think there might be an error in the math as well.
The cost to reach the "break even point" is based on current cost so I don't find it too useful, because cost will decline significantly. The network will approach a small margin below the break even point. It is only a matter of time. You can consider that the equilibrium point, we have seen it occur in the GPU era for a couple of years. If more efficient hardware is produced then the hashrate will rise, if the exchange rate rises then the hashrate will rise, as mining moves to lower cost areas the hashrate will rise, if the exchange rate falls the hashrate will fall. However the network will approach and stay close to a margin below the break even point. How close? It really depends on miners and what risk they are taking.
Are we now entering the "equilibrium point" for the 28nm ASIC era?
March 17, 2014, 10:09:09 AM
I have created the following thread using the numbers calculated in this thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/projected-minimum-cost-per-btc-over-the-next-year-518111
Question: why is this specification https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/annasicminer-publicly-looking-for-potential-customerspartners-for-new-chips-438359 (0.2 - 0.35 J/GH) not being taken into account in the OP? Or is it? Perhaps they are quoting power at the chip and you are quoting power (0.8 J/GH) at the wall?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/projected-minimum-cost-per-btc-over-the-next-year-518111
Question: why is this specification https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/annasicminer-publicly-looking-for-potential-customerspartners-for-new-chips-438359 (0.2 - 0.35 J/GH) not being taken into account in the OP? Or is it? Perhaps they are quoting power at the chip and you are quoting power (0.8 J/GH) at the wall?
They almost certainly are quoting the chip. We only care about wattage at the wall. Also not sure if that chip has been released yet, it certainly wasn't at the time of the OP. The OP refers to ASICMiner 130nm the linked post was for 40nm. Most companies miss their target numbers. I would look at them with a good dose of skepticism until you see reports of users in the field getting x W/GH AT THE WALL (i.e. killawatt meter of equivalent).
March 17, 2014, 01:02:51 AM
I have created the following thread using the numbers calculated in this thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/projected-minimum-cost-per-btc-over-the-next-year-518111
Question: why is this specification https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/annasicminer-publicly-looking-for-potential-customerspartners-for-new-chips-438359 (0.2 - 0.35 J/GH) not being taken into account in the OP? Or is it? Perhaps they are quoting power at the chip and you are quoting power (0.8 J/GH) at the wall?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/projected-minimum-cost-per-btc-over-the-next-year-518111
Question: why is this specification https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/annasicminer-publicly-looking-for-potential-customerspartners-for-new-chips-438359 (0.2 - 0.35 J/GH) not being taken into account in the OP? Or is it? Perhaps they are quoting power at the chip and you are quoting power (0.8 J/GH) at the wall?
without fail, every single company that tried to forecast their power consumption has got it wrong (usually at least 20-30% underestimating), so its always best to try it after the chips come back from the fab to see what the actual power consumption is.
also, as you say, most power we measure is at the wall... because there are significant losses due to dc/dc power conversion, and ac/dc power conversion, and cooling systems, and host computers, etc... so its best to compare like for like and compare them all at the wall.
March 16, 2014, 08:26:26 AM
I have created the following thread using the numbers calculated in this thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/projected-minimum-cost-per-btc-over-the-next-year-518111
Question: why is this specification https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/annasicminer-publicly-looking-for-potential-customerspartners-for-new-chips-438359 (0.2 - 0.35 J/GH) not being taken into account in the OP? Or is it? Perhaps they are quoting power at the chip and you are quoting power (0.8 J/GH) at the wall?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/projected-minimum-cost-per-btc-over-the-next-year-518111
Question: why is this specification https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/annasicminer-publicly-looking-for-potential-customerspartners-for-new-chips-438359 (0.2 - 0.35 J/GH) not being taken into account in the OP? Or is it? Perhaps they are quoting power at the chip and you are quoting power (0.8 J/GH) at the wall?
March 15, 2014, 08:18:38 AM
I can see the difficulty becoming way to high regardless if you have 1 TH, theres so many companies now looking to sell bitcoin miners
March 14, 2014, 11:16:45 PM
Maybe I am just too tired right now to recognize the obvious... but these calculations are assuming a mining reward of 25 BTC per block right? (and ignoring transaction fees I guess)
February 07, 2014, 08:47:18 AM
Hey, kWh is kW times hours NOT kW per hour (like fingernails on a blackboard to an EE)
Also: 0.415 kW not 0.415 kWh - you multiplied by 24 h later to get kWh
Also: 0.415 kW not 0.415 kWh - you multiplied by 24 h later to get kWh
Splitting hairs, it's still valid to work it out as 0.415 kW per hour before you multiply it by 24hrs. (kWh = kW x 1h)
By the way the reason for the bad BTC price seems to be a problem with MtGox.
https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20140207.html
I wonder how they'll explan it on Monday? Hacked? Liquidity? Manipulation? Other?
February 07, 2014, 08:31:20 AM
Hey, kWh is kW times hours NOT kW per hour (like fingernails on a blackboard to an EE)
Also: 0.415 kW not 0.415 kWh - you multiplied by 24 h later to get kWh
Also: 0.415 kW not 0.415 kWh - you multiplied by 24 h later to get kWh
February 07, 2014, 06:14:55 AM
Work in kWh (1000 watts per hour), that's what you pay your power company in, not J.
My 6x Bitfury Hex16B mine 270GH using 415W @ 11p per kWh
The math is simple...
0.415kWh x 11p x 24hrs = 109.56p (£1.10) power cost per day.
The exchange rate is pretty bad today* 436.6 GBP (713.1 USD) per BTC and they mine about 0.06BTC per day...
0.06 x £436.60 = £26.20 mining revenue per day.
So now you take one away from the other
£26.20 - £1.10 = £25.10 mining profit per day (excluding equipment costs)
The miners cost 6x £415 = £2490 / £25.10 mining profit per day = 99 days to break even if you bought it today.
Keep all your receipts in your local currency not BTC, in case you ever need to explain to the tax man where your income is coming from!
*Seems to be a problem at MtGox http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-drops-sharply-as-mt-gox-halts-withdrawals-2014-02-07?dist=beforebell
My 6x Bitfury Hex16B mine 270GH using 415W @ 11p per kWh
The math is simple...
0.415kWh x 11p x 24hrs = 109.56p (£1.10) power cost per day.
The exchange rate is pretty bad today* 436.6 GBP (713.1 USD) per BTC and they mine about 0.06BTC per day...
0.06 x £436.60 = £26.20 mining revenue per day.
So now you take one away from the other
£26.20 - £1.10 = £25.10 mining profit per day (excluding equipment costs)
The miners cost 6x £415 = £2490 / £25.10 mining profit per day = 99 days to break even if you bought it today.
Keep all your receipts in your local currency not BTC, in case you ever need to explain to the tax man where your income is coming from!
*Seems to be a problem at MtGox http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-drops-sharply-as-mt-gox-halts-withdrawals-2014-02-07?dist=beforebell
February 07, 2014, 02:25:16 AM
With new 10MW DataCenter KNC can add another 10-15 PHash to network.
November 25, 2013, 06:03:39 PM
Yeah saw that but if the 20nm is a FPGA HardCopy ASIC it will be no faster or efficient than a genuine 28nm ASIC.
I wonder when we will see Bitfury Strikes Again?!
I wonder when we will see Bitfury Strikes Again?!
November 25, 2013, 10:18:55 AM
November 25, 2013, 09:45:13 AM
I have to wonder..
KNC 28nm 1.1 [3] 18,250 130.6 <-- if this is a 28nm FPGA HardCopy not a true 28nm ASIC?
Bitfury 55nm 0.9 23,300 166.8
http://www.altera.co.uk/devices/asic/hardcopy-asics/hardcopy-v/hcv-index.jsp
KNC 28nm 1.1 [3] 18,250 130.6 <-- if this is a 28nm FPGA HardCopy not a true 28nm ASIC?
Bitfury 55nm 0.9 23,300 166.8
http://www.altera.co.uk/devices/asic/hardcopy-asics/hardcopy-v/hcv-index.jsp
November 24, 2013, 11:12:28 PM
So, now $1000 /BTC, the most efficient miner exists today, can profitably hash till the network reaches, 1668 PHash. Awesome. 
I don't think we're going cross this limit anytime in 2014.
I don't think we're going cross this limit anytime in 2014.
I'm excited.
November 24, 2013, 10:51:50 PM
So, now $1000 /BTC, the most efficient miner exists today, can profitably hash till the network reaches, 1668 PHash. Awesome.
I don't think we're going cross this limit anytime in 2014.
I don't think we're going cross this limit anytime in 2014.
October 25, 2013, 09:43:08 AM
1 HP ≈ 746 watts
1 HP ≈ Burning 641 calories an hour
300 calories = 75kg person, cycling at <10 mph, for an hour = (746/641) * 300 watts = 349.14 watts = 349.14 Joules/second = 384 GHash ≈ 2 bitcents @ 3 PHash ≈ $4 @ $200 per BTC
So, with an appropriate exercise machine attached to a miner, your 1 hour workout would also give you some Bitcoin rewards.
1 HP ≈ Burning 641 calories an hour
300 calories = 75kg person, cycling at <10 mph, for an hour = (746/641) * 300 watts = 349.14 watts = 349.14 Joules/second = 384 GHash ≈ 2 bitcents @ 3 PHash ≈ $4 @ $200 per BTC
So, with an appropriate exercise machine attached to a miner, your 1 hour workout would also give you some Bitcoin rewards.
I can see armies of prisoners in china being forced to pedal bikes attached to PCs with massive piles of discarded block erupters right now.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2011/06/02/chinese-prisoners-forced-to-farm-world-of-warcraft-gold/
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