Who wants to start guessing what the report next week will say? How much profit/loss for the first month?
I am going to make a wild guess and say the report will show a profit of 5%
It's more fun to guess what the share price will do in response to the report.
BTC-investors tend to react very strongly to news, rumours and random fear-mongering. I expect that whatever the monthly report says, there will be a strongly amplified initial reaction visible in the share price (at least initially, it may settle at a value that better reflects the performance of the fund after a while).
Right. If my guess is correct that the report says profit is 5%, the price will rise over 50% (or 500%), and then slowly settle downwards toward the IPO price. And anybody who bought at the height will loudly complain about how this fund is losing them money.
Doubt it. Unless I misunderstand his intentions totally, shortly after publishing reports he'll place Asks slightly above NAV/U and Bids slightly below it. Even if he doesn't place orders he'll be filling orders. So market price will be kept stable for a period after the report.
Funds which can issue (effectively) unlimited paper should never be trading far from NAV/U.
The only interesting movement is likely to be BEFORE the report if people strongly believe he will have made or lost anything significant. But I think most who bought this realise it's designed for investment not speculation (i.e. the price tied hard to NAV/U) so will just and wait and see.
5% (your guess) would be pretty impressive given that the month started with zero actually invested. Getting significant(ish) BTC invested at all (without moving prices) takes a while to do. Though I guess he could have made a few % just by dumping it into J-D and pulling from there gradually to move into actual intended investments.
