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Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 40. (Read 198958 times)

hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
September 23, 2013, 03:43:49 AM
Will need to consider carefully how to proceed from here.

In principle the options are :

1.  Move to another exchange,
2.  Close down - and distribute funds approximately in ratio to what market prices were just before the announcement.

Problem with #2 is it's going to be hard to have any sort of rational discussion over how much should go to mining and selling as everyone with an opinion likely has a lot of one and not much of the other so isn't unbiased.  Market prices is the only way to go - as those represent the prices people were happy to hold at (noone was trying hard to buy more of whichever they held or was desperate to sell into bids - or they'd have done so).

If problems arise with recovering investments then loss/delay from that MUST go to SELLING not MINING as SELLING were always getting the benefit from investment.

A few things seem pretty obvious immediately:

1.  No new investments should be made.
2.  Where investments can be cashed out they should be - so there's no further changes in NAV/U.
3.  Debatably I should withdraw all funds to a BTC wallet under my control and only return them when distribution is to occur.
4.  Trading will be disabled on PURCHASE - I won't sell more shares now obviously and also I can't redeem them until I'm sure all investments are safe and will be recoverable.  It would be bad form if I allowed sale back of PURCHASE then found we couldn't get one investment back and so those who had sold back had received more than their fair share.
5.  Similar to 4 I won't be redeeming pairs of MINING+SELLING.

This isn't a situation explicitly covered in the contract - but rest assured I'll resolve it in the fairest way I can.

Personally I'd favour option 1, since DMS was a fun fund to mess around with. But if that's not an option, then the plan you laid out for termination looks fine to me.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
September 23, 2013, 03:41:38 AM
Will need to consider carefully how to proceed from here.

In principle the options are :

1.  Move to another exchange,
2.  Close down - and distribute funds approximately in ratio to what market prices were just before the announcement.

Problem with #2 is it's going to be hard to have any sort of rational discussion over how much should go to mining and selling as everyone with an opinion likely has a lot of one and not much of the other so isn't unbiased.  Market prices is the only way to go - as those represent the prices people were happy to hold at (noone was trying hard to buy more of whichever they held or was desperate to sell into bids - or they'd have done so).

If problems arise with recovering investments then loss/delay from that MUST go to SELLING not MINING as SELLING were always getting the benefit from investment.

A few things seem pretty obvious immediately:

1.  No new investments should be made.
2.  Where investments can be cashed out they should be - so there's no further changes in NAV/U.
3.  Debatably I should withdraw all funds to a BTC wallet under my control and only return them when distribution is to occur.
4.  Trading will be disabled on PURCHASE - I won't sell more shares now obviously and also I can't redeem them until I'm sure all investments are safe and will be recoverable.  It would be bad form if I allowed sale back of PURCHASE then found we couldn't get one investment back and so those who had sold back had received more than their fair share.
5.  Similar to 4 I won't be redeeming pairs of MINING+SELLING.

This isn't a situation explicitly covered in the contract - but rest assured I'll resolve it in the fairest way I can.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
September 23, 2013, 03:32:49 AM
BTCT will operate as usual until October 7
October 7, 2013, all forms of secondary market trading will be halted on both sites.
So in theory we could have two difficulty changes and then the buyback ;-)

Altough I would prefer for DMS to exist on other exchange. Ukyo is located in China? What about Havelock or Cryptostocks (I have no experience with CS)?

I do not think we should take any chances with the exact date BTCT closes and instead focus on resolving this issue swiftly so we can get our coins to safety.
full member
Activity: 181
Merit: 100
September 23, 2013, 03:31:12 AM
BTCT will operate as usual until October 7
October 7, 2013, all forms of secondary market trading will be halted on both sites.
So in theory we could have two difficulty changes and then the buyback ;-)

Altough I would prefer for DMS to exist on other exchange. Ukyo is located in China? What about Havelock or Cryptostocks (I have no experience with CS)?
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 23, 2013, 03:24:57 AM
Moving to another platform now looks like a huge risk. If BTC-TC closes smoothly, it will be the best case.
Now imagine if it was shut down by officials. Nobody would get a single satoshi back!
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
September 23, 2013, 03:24:34 AM
I guess option 2 applies to this situation the most. Option 1 mostly covers a voluntary shutdown (which has to be approved by a vote).

There's also option 3, which I'd prefer: Move to another exchange and credit the shares there based on the BTCT records.

I would caution against moving to another exchange, Btct's shutdown leads me to believe that the legal threat posed by regulatory bodies is real enough to potentially scare off the owners of havelock and bitfunder as well. I would rather have Deprived carry out a buyback in order to fairly distribute the remaining assets so I can withdraw them to a safe haven instead of leave them in now the very precarious hands of securities exchange operators.

Another issue is that both other exchanges don't seem to have API-functionality that is needed to update my automated transfer bot and I wonder how eager Deprived is to go back to manual transfers after having had the bot for a some time now.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
September 23, 2013, 03:22:00 AM
I guess option 2 applies to this situation the most. Option 1 mostly covers a voluntary shutdown (which has to be approved by a vote).

There's also option 3, which I'd prefer: Move to another exchange and credit the shares there based on the BTCT records.

I would caution against moving to another exchange, Btct's shutdown leads me to believe that the legal threat posed by regulatory bodies is real enough to potentially scare off the owners of havelock and bitfunder as well. I would rather have Deprived carry out a buyback in order to fairly distribute the remaining assets so I can withdraw them to a safe haven instead of leave them in now the very precarious hands of securities exchange operators.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
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September 23, 2013, 03:21:52 AM
I guess option 2 applies to this situation the most. Option 1 mostly covers a voluntary shutdown (which has to be approved by a vote).

There's also option 3, which I'd prefer: Move to another exchange and credit the shares there based on the BTCT records.

Guess it would depend on if there's anything in the contract that precludes moving to a new exchange. But assuming there isn't I'd like Deprived to explore the possibility of relisting on another exchange rather than winding up the assets.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
September 23, 2013, 03:18:26 AM
I guess option 2 applies to this situation the most. Option 1 mostly covers a voluntary shutdown (which has to be approved by a vote).

There's also option 3, which I'd prefer: Move to another exchange and credit the shares there based on the BTCT records.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
September 23, 2013, 03:17:25 AM
In any case I would propose for a motion to begin on DMS.SELLING to liquidate assets and commence buyback
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
September 23, 2013, 03:03:22 AM
Deprived how are you going to handle the issue of the site shutdown?

Given your how you have demonstrated extreme competence in running this offering so far, and given how you have intelligently laid out your BTC investments in a way that can be easily recouped, would it be fair to assume that some form of buyback is in order as per either

1.)
Quote
BUY-BACK TERMS

It is the intention of Manager that this fund should be a long-term prospect (the prices of all three securities will gradually fall) however an option must exist for a shut down.  In the event of shutdown then DMS.MINING (and any outstanding units of DMS.PURCHASE) would first receive a dividend equal to the LOWER of :

a) All funds held by the securities,

b) 365 times the daily dividended due at current difficulty.

The scenarios in which closure under these terms could happen are:

a) Manager proposes a shut down and this is approved by a vote of DMS.SELLING units AND is voted in favour of by a majority of voting units not held by the Manager.  It is envisaged that this scenario would happen if difficulty rose massively AND there was no further interest in purchase of more DMS.MINING bonds.

b) Capital falls such that it is too low to pay 100 days of DMS.MINING bonds for 2 successive difficulties (i.e. before AND after a difficulty change).  In that scenario it is apparent that all of the capital will go to DMS.MINING holders (and DMS.SELLING holders got it totally wrong) so closure and payment of all funds to them immediately is the only fair course of action.

Following payment of the dividend to DMS.MINING, any remaining funds are divdended to DMS.SELLING (and to any outstanding units of DMS.PURCHASE).

Manager may, at his discretion, choose to make final payments by means of a forced purchase rather than through dividends (incurring trading fees but freeing the tickers up for reuse).

or
2.)
Quote
UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES

It is possible that cirumstances could arise where the Manager is unable or unwilling to continue operating the fund.  Should this position arise then immediately the Manager must:

Cease making new investments,
Liquidate investments where possible,
Cease selling new DMS.PURCHASE
Offer redemption at 100% (less any exchange fees) of NAV/U for DMS.PURCHASE and bundles of equal numbers of DMS.MINING and DMS.SELLING where it is possible to do so whilst retaining at least 50 days dividend cover in liquid BTC for the remaining DMS.MINING.
Manager must further seek to either:

Find a replacement manager to be approved by a majority vote by both all outstanding DMS.MINING and all outstanding DMS.SELLING.
Propose a split of funds between DMS.MINING and DMS.SELLING to be approved by a majority vote by both all outstanding DMS.MINING and all outstanding DMS.SELLING.
In the event of a vote with a proposal to split funds being left up for 7 days and (in either vote) the total of (Yes votes + No votes) being less than 50% of all outstanding shares then the Manager will determine a fair (in his best judgement) split of funds and execute final payments in accordance with that decision.  This clause is added specifically to address the scenario where most shares have been redeemed with a large part of those remaining outstanding being unable or unwilling to participate in reaching closure.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 23, 2013, 02:21:03 AM
Shit( I think there IS reason to worry about the future of DMS as well as the future of BTC.
full member
Activity: 181
Merit: 100
September 23, 2013, 02:14:14 AM
I guess there is no reason to worry about future of DMS, right?

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL BTC TRADING CORP WEBSITE PARTICIPANTS

As a result of recent changes in the virtual currency regulatory environment, the btct.co and litecoinglobal.com virtual stock market websites will be closing down.  The following is our current schedule:

Approximately a week ago, both sites were closed to any new users and new asset creation was disabled.
 
Effective immediately, in conjunction with this release, trading will be halted, all order books cleared, and trading re-enabled.
 
October 7, 2013, all forms of secondary market trading will be halted on both sites.
 
Approximately October 31, 2013, both sites will be taken offline.  It is strongly suggested that participants take the following steps to protect all of their virtual assets:
 
All participants should take steps to transfer all of your BTC and LTC (and any other data you wish to keep, such as CSV trade histories) held on the sites to your personal computer or another trusted site.
 
All participants should make sure that their public BTC or LTC address is properly set in the Account page on the Settings tab whereby it can be shared with all issuers.
 
All “issuers” should have the contact information concerning their “investors”, and we ask that all “issuers” communicate with their “investors” as soon as possible as to how they will ensure that all are treated appropriately.

We regret this development. However, we want to do everything we can to minimize problems arising from this transition.  It is our goal to keep this shutdown orderly and calm.

Thank you for your participation, creativity, loyalty and sense of community over the past year.  Additional communications will follow as we work out the details.

Ethan Burnside
BTC Trading Corp.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
September 22, 2013, 11:08:36 AM
Sold   57
Swapped   0
Total   57
Price   0.009178
Total   0.523146
Less Fee   0.522099708
Man Fee   0.015662991

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1137.316759
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    369.51000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   203.0881027
Coinlenders Cash   0
Just-Dice Balance    167.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,967.62486189
   
Outstanding MINING   210972
Outstanding SELLING   210972
Outstanding PURCHASE   14374
Effective Units   225346
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   112,628,549
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002233
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00111629
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00223259
365 days (Buyback)    0.00814895
405 days (IPO)    0.00904199
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00893036
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00915361
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,962.59381190
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00870925
Days Dividend Post Div   390.10
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,962.59381190
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00870925
PURCHASE selling price    0.009145
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.008535
   
J-D House profit at report   1321
sr. member
Activity: 337
Merit: 252
September 21, 2013, 03:45:44 PM
Simple mathematics tells us that if the difficulty increases by the same relative amount every time, the total amount of dividend paid out by MINING over its entire lifetime is:
14 * X / D

You are using 14 days here for the length of the difficulty period, and that is not correct when difficulty is increasing. Therefore your formula will overestimate the value of MINING.

While it may appear like that, do the math, sum up the geometric series, taking into account that each cycle only lasts for 14 / (1 + D) days and you'll see the simple expression that I mentioned previously emerge.

Actually you are right. Not a bad rule of thumb.
legendary
Activity: 4466
Merit: 3391
September 21, 2013, 03:29:58 PM
Rannasha,
I agree with most of what you wrote, but I disagree with these:

Value != price.

Price certainly does equal value. Price expresses the value that the market participants give it. If it did not, then the participants would trade until it did. This assumes that the price also reflects transaction costs and liquidity.

I don't know the right value price for DMS.mining. A right value price could be 0.002 BTC per share based on the block eruptor blade pricing at BTC guild. (not available for international shipment)

The right price of MINING does not depend on what the competing hashing-related stuff is doing. The only thing that should influence pricing for DMS.MINING is the expected dividend-payments (and the speed with which they come). And this in turn depends on the difficulty evolution.

There is no "right" price. The value you are describing is the present value of all the anticipated dividend payments. That is an excellent way to assign a value, but it is not the only way. Please note that you are forgetting to specify a discount rate. Your discount rate is what might cause your valuation to be very different from other valuations.

Now, this value is not the only thing that affects the price. Competing opportunities such as the price of a block eruptor blade certainly can have an effect on the price of DMS.MINING. If the alternative is cheaper, then people will switch, and then the demand for DMS.MINING will drop and so will the price.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
September 21, 2013, 03:23:07 PM
Simple mathematics tells us that if the difficulty increases by the same relative amount every time, the total amount of dividend paid out by MINING over its entire lifetime is:
14 * X / D

You are using 14 days here for the length of the difficulty period, and that is not correct when difficulty is increasing. Therefore your formula will overestimate the value of MINING.

While it may appear like that, do the math, sum up the geometric series, taking into account that each cycle only lasts for 14 / (1 + D) days and you'll see the simple expression that I mentioned previously emerge.

edit: If you want to deprive yourself of the fun of deriving it yourself, you can check https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2493461
sr. member
Activity: 337
Merit: 252
September 21, 2013, 03:19:13 PM
Simple mathematics tells us that if the difficulty increases by the same relative amount every time, the total amount of dividend paid out by MINING over its entire lifetime is:
14 * X / D

You are using 14 days here for the length of the difficulty period, and that is not correct when difficulty is increasing. Therefore your formula will overestimate the value of MINING.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
September 21, 2013, 02:28:05 PM
Can someone explain why the JD losses affect the DMS.mining value instead of DMS.selling?
 (Or is there another reason for the DMS.mining drop that I am missing?)
DMS.MINING was way overvalued, that's the reason for the drop.
I don't know the right value price for DMS.mining. A right value price could be 0.002 BTC per share based on the block eruptor blade pricing at BTC guild. (not available for international shipment)

The right price of MINING does not depend on what the competing hashing-related stuff is doing. The only thing that should influence pricing for DMS.MINING is the expected dividend-payments (and the speed with which they come). And this in turn depends on the difficulty evolution.

Simple mathematics tells us that if the difficulty increases by the same relative amount every time, the total amount of dividend paid out by MINING over its entire lifetime is:
14 * X / D
where X is the daily dividends right now and D the fractional difficulty increase per adjustment (so 0.2 for 20%). To get the correct result, this should be computed at the start of a difficulty cycle (or deduct the amount of dividends paid since the last adjustment from the computed result). Additionally, the block-reward halving is not included in the computation, but this is far enough away that dividends have become negligible by then (unless difficulty stops growing soon).

As an example, if you expect a 25% increase per adjustment, MINING will pay a total of 1.25 mBTC, counted from the start of the current cycle, so 6 days ago. Deducting the dividend paid over those days, you get 1.12 mBTC left.

So if you assume that the difficulty goes up by 25% per adjustment, you should not pay more than 1.12 mBTC for MINING right now. Of course, you'll want to pay less than that, because investing to break even after an infintely long series is not a good investment at all.
full member
Activity: 181
Merit: 100
September 21, 2013, 01:50:56 PM
My estimation is based on my guess of the future difficulty growth, not on the price of an overpriced hardware. I guess even 0.0017 is overpriced.
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