Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 44. (Read 198958 times)

Leaving the old order up as well so I remember to add sales from that order on when producing next report.

The vote on CIPHERMINE bond investments ends today - there's a clear majority of those voting who want DMS to keep them but not quite enough at present to pass the motion.  If the motion doesn't reach 50% then I'll buy them off the fund with personal funds tomorrow morning (motion ends at midnight my time and I'll have been at the pub so won't want to be moving funds around then).

I MAY not be around to produce a report on Saturday (or I might, alternatively, do it an hour early).  I'm watching Roger Waters - the Wall at Wembley Stadium and will be heading for a train to London at the time dividends are usually paid.  Looks like SELLING dividend won't be until Sunday so it's no big deal if there's no report on Saturday.

There's a small error in the above report.

I didn't reduce value of CIPHERMINE bonds properly to account for a few more sales.

Here's what it should have been:

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1253.18399
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    387.10000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.8746865
Coinlenders Cash   105.8992007
Just-Dice Balance    247.35000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,286.11787734
   
Outstanding MINING   190110
Outstanding SELLING   190110
Outstanding PURCHASE   9738
Effective Units   199848
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,280.33728534
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01141036
Days Dividend Post Div   394.48
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,280.33728534
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01141036
PURCHASE selling price    0.01198
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01118
   
J-D House profit at report   6268

Adjusting PURCHASE price to correct slightly lower value now.  Was puzzled how PURCHASE price hadn't dropped at all - but had to put new PURCHASE sale up whilst I double-checked to stop people buying massively overpriced ones.

Sold   3612
Swapped   0
Total   3612
Price   0.012
Total   43.344
Less Fee   43.257312
Man Fee   1.29771936

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1253.18399
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    389.93000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.8746865
Coinlenders Cash   105.8992007
Just-Dice Balance    247.35000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,288.94787734
   
Outstanding MINING   190110
Outstanding SELLING   190110
Outstanding PURCHASE   9738
Effective Units   199848
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,283.16728534
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01142452
Days Dividend Post Div   394.97
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,283.16728534
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01142452
PURCHASE selling price    0.01200
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01120
   
J-D House profit at report   6268

There are different ways to estimate the next difficulty, so there will be some difference between the various estimates. This difference will obviously decrease as we get closer to the adjustment and the estimates become more accurate.

According to blockexplorer, next difficulty will be at ~106M.

for selling holders - estimated next div is 9/14 if done day of difficulty change, 9/15 if done day after.

next difficulty estimated ~111mil, around 27.5% increase. just estimates.

Sold   3871
Swapped   0
Total   3871
Price   0.01203
Total   46.56813
Less Fee   46.47499374
Man Fee   1.394249812

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1213.874005
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    389.93000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.7556223
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.904679
Coinlenders Cash   3.9593427
Just-Dice Balance    247.13000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,249.26364931
   
Outstanding MINING   187262
Outstanding SELLING   187262
Outstanding PURCHASE   8974
Effective Units   196236
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,243.58753420
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01143311
Days Dividend Post Div   395.27
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,243.58753420
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01143311
PURCHASE selling price    0.01200
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01120
   
J-D House profit at report   6213

Have sold 1k or so Ciphermine bonds so far making about 0.6-0.7 profit.  Will continue slowly selling them until the vote ends - at which stage either DMS will be holding them (and only selling down to next projected capital allowance) or I'll have taken them off the fund's hands and they won't matter any more to DMS.  J-D was reported slightly lower than it should have been yesterdday (by 0.1-0.2) as I'd estimated value after dooglus' fee deduction forgetting that he'd actually already taken it the previous day.  Value is now correct (I verify it more thoroughly on days when there's a SELLING dividend anyway.

"DMS.SELLING - Is a bet that people will pay too much for DMS.MINING."

apologies - i should be irritated at myself for not reading 100% of the the fine print.

i will stop whining and try my best to get out of this with as little loss as possible, and perhaps buy a lot of mining when it looks like the fund is going to collapse for a massive protection.

It's not so much that they're favoured as that they have to be protected.

Mining investors are betting that the recent very fast rises in difficulty are going to stop soon.  Capital can't be returned to SELLING investors until it's certain that it won't end up being owed to MINING investors.

So right now, at the prices the shares are trading at, SELLING investors are only looking at a fairly small profit on their investment.  But it isn't anything like as low as it may at first seem.  IF difficulty continues rising at the same sort of rates (which is what they're betting on) then over half of their capital would be returned in the next 2 dividends - and most of it within months.  So although the profit is low (again - only IF they're right) they don't have to tie up capital very long to realise the profit.

The opposite is true for MINING investors - they can potentially make big profits but ONLY if difficulty slows down rising pretty soon.  And even then it would take a long time for them to get that profit in most scenarios (exception being if difficulty stopped rising totally for some reason and there was good reason to believe it wouldn't rise again in the near future iin which case SELLING should vote to close and MINING would get a massive profit immediately).

yes, i should have done more research before investing.

it seems mining investors are heavily favored in the terms.

USB miners are now between 0.1 and 0.12 BTC, lets use 0.1. Note that this doesn't include shipping, which can be a significant factor when ordering small quantities.

The USB miner hashes at 330 MHash/s, so you get 3.3 GHash/s per BTC. DMS.MINING currently trades around 0.0025 BTC and pays dividends corresponding to 5 MHash/s, so you get roughly 2 GHash/s per BTC.

So yes, USB miners seem to be a better investment. However, if you add shipping costs and further overhead, the USB miners will become more expensive. And of course, power costs can't be ignored, especially if you have a host machine that would otherwise have not been running.

Since DMS.MINING is the cheapest PMB-like construction (if you only look at hashrate versus price) and it's already less efficient than the worst ASIC miner (in terms of hashrate/price), then imagine how low the profitability of other PMBs is.

The selling's dividend is a refund due to difficulty increase. It equals 388 * old daily mining dividend - 400 * new mining dividend + invest income. So the price of mining or price of selling really does not matter. Even if the MINING is over priced, holders of SELLING will only win when the MINING price comes back to the correct value. Selling holders  lose money if the MINING price keeps high unless you hold it till the fund closed. But remember, when fund closes, MINING holders get 365 * daily dividend.

i did some napkin math and looking at the current price of dms mining compared with the new price of USB miners, basically the least efficient mining option, and dms mining is almost twice as expensive per mh. very rough calculation, obviously excluding electricity cost but still. am i missing something? for some reason i feel like something is off.

i hope this means for some good dividends for selling.

Sold   1429
Swapped   0
Total   1429
Price   0.01205
Total   17.21945
Less Fee   17.1850111
Man Fee   0.515550333

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1163.532459
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    400.00000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.6318028
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.8386748
Coinlenders Cash   3.95711353
Just-Dice Balance    247.10000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,208.77004975
   
Outstanding MINING   183719
Outstanding SELLING   183719
Outstanding PURCHASE   8646
Effective Units   192365
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,203.20590310
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01145326
Days Dividend Post Div   395.96
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,203.20590310
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01145326
PURCHASE selling price    0.01203
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01122
   
J-D House profit at report   6268

Have listed the CIPHERMINE bonds in the report - but obviously they'll be replaced back by BTC if the motion fails.  Added them in so anyone verifying the report can do so and also to make it easier to update if we sell some before the motion ends.

Obviously if the motion doesn't get enough votes either way this time it won't go up again - as there'll be no way to buy them at face value after then anyway.

I've now purchase 400 BTC worth of Ciphermine bonds for DMS.

IMPORTANT : Please read the below before replying.

At present the motion hasn't completed on this - and it isn't clear whether it will pass or not.  I had already arrange with Kate that we would have the option to purchase this large chunk directly if the motion passed.  I decided to go ahead anyway - to lock in the opportunity if the motion passes.

If the motion passes DMS will keep the bonds.

If the motion fails then I will:

1.  Fill all orders above face value on the market - with DMS retaining any profit from that.
2.  Buy ALL the rest at full face value from DMS.  I can move 400 of my personal BTC on-site within a day no problem.

Any loss - including full default - on the bonds prior to the motion passing is on ME not DMS.

Basically I'm personally guaranteeing zero loss to DMS if the motion fails (and possibly some profit anyway) whilst locking in an investment for us if the motion passes.  So unless/until the motion passes this is effectively invested in me - not in CIPHERMINE bonds.

You should NOT let this influence your vote.  If you believe it's a unsound investment then you should still vote NO - I'm not asking for or expecting more YES votes just because I've commited some of my personal BTC to lock in an option for us.  If you were intending to vote YES anyway then obviously this isn't going to change anything.

EDIT:  Just to note that I may sell some at above face value even before the motion ends.  Any profits from that do, of course, stay in DMS.  Whilst DMS doesn't actively trade I'm always willing to sell its investments if there's sufficient markup over face value.

I would like to remind to fellow shareholders that they should vote on the DMS.SELLING motion (https://btct.co/security/DMS.SELLING, tab 'Motions')
The proposed bonds were approved on BTCT, we could miss the opportunity! (like with the XBOND)

I voted YES because I like that the bond has face value in BTC and pays high interest fixed in fiat (the worst scenario here is BTC price tripling), also there is a possibility that we will be able to sell the bonds later with a premium (just like with other bonds - LTC-ATF.B1, Ukyo.Loan, XBOND).

This motion isn't saying "buy CIPHERMINE's bonds for 25%" - it enables Deprived to do what he thinks is best for DMS (up to 25% investment). If there will be any doubt (e.g. about the backing of the bond) Deprived can't hazard DMS funds according to the contract (see below).
If you are want more information, here he questioned the issuer of the bond: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3078282

The motion says

And the contract says

Sold   906
Swapped   0
Total   906
Price   0.01208
Total   10.94448
Less Fee   10.92259104
Man Fee   0.327677731

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1552.757764
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.5136136
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.775672
Coinlenders Cash   3.95488561
Just-Dice Balance    247.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,197.71193475
   
Outstanding MINING   182315
Outstanding SELLING   182315
Outstanding PURCHASE   8654
Effective Units   190969
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,192.18816732
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01147929
Days Dividend Post Div   396.86
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,192.18816732
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01147929
PURCHASE selling price    0.01205
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01125
   
J-D House profit at report   6237

30% change in difficulty doesn't necessarily it means it's overvalued - it could have been undervalued before (not saying that's the case - just pointing out there's two options not one).

i believe all holders will appreciate you finding good investment opportunities to grow our capital.

also, dms mining is super over valued. 30% difficulty increase and almost change in price.

Didn't get any email about this news item either, so there may still be something wrong with BTC-TCs mailing system, although I have received trade notification mails just fine recently.

edit: Disregard this post, just remembered I had turned off email notifications for news posts on BTC-TC.