Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 51. (Read 198958 times)

BTCT has an additional check if you place an order that is far away from the current best prices (so very high buy-orders or very low ask-orders). I ran into this once in the past when selling something for X when there were a few units in a bid at 4X, and a ton more at X.

Don't know precisely how quick this check appears, but I doubt that this purchase was accidental. Which leaves me to wonder why it happened (and why today was the day that I could sleep in and my wife woke up early to feed our kid, which caused me to miss this opportunity )

Pretty certain it wasn't a typo.  If you look at the history you'll see that the buys were done over quite a number of different orders - it wasn't one big order placed at once.

If there was a typo then it was when they did their calculations, not when they placed the orders.

My guess is somebody made a mistake by placing a 0.001 buy order at 0.01 instead. Otherwise, it does not make sence at all. With 0.01, even without difficulty increase, it takes 200 days to break even.

Transfer bot had its first failure on a transfer overnight - someone sent in 46 PURCHASE and it only sent back 46 SELLING (no MINING).

That will happen occasionally - if BTC-TC gos down, my net connection drops or there's a lock error during the transfer.  If it happens to you drop me a PM - it's easy for me to verify and correct.  I'll always notice things like this anyway (I noticed this one quickly as number of MINING/SELLING outstanding didn't match) but in some cases won't pick up on errors until I produce my next report (when total outstanding units will no longer be what it should be allowing for sales/redemptions - telling me there's an error or missed transfer somewhere).

If you're the person who sent the 46 PURCHASE and only got SELLING sent back you now have your MINING as well.

EDIT:  Actually the error was yesterday evening before I went out (I didn't check after I got back from the pub other than to make sure bot was still running):

Update started at 23/08/2013 18:14:19
TX-IN: 46 x DMS.PURCHASE <- Redacted
ERROR: Transfer error. Could not get asset lock.
ERROR: Unknown error with request. Message: The operation has timed out

The transfer of MINING failed because it couldn't get a lock on the asset, the transfer of SELLING worked but timed out responding so bot thought that hadn't worked either (which is why the bot doesn't retry on fails - as sometimes a transaction reported as a fail actually gos through, so all failures are left for me to sort).

Well, someone is crazy? 

Yep! I'll take it!

In any case we both made money 

Still doesn't make sense... he won't be able to sell most of the shares for anywhere close to what he bought em for, and they are never gonna return anything close to 0.01 in dividends. Oh well, after prices settle back down this little spike will have almost tripled my holdings...

Im pretty sure its that guy who had the bid wall of some 35,000 shares at .00385

Dang, my entire holding of MINING just sold at 0.008-0.009... why would someone buy it up so high?

Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn

I guess I am extremely lucky to be the only guy that trades this regularly that was on when this whale bought MINING up to .01.

Managed to arb the entire way and clear the SELLING side down to .01 as well. Unfortunately there were not enough SELLING bids to keep up with the way the whale is buying to keep this gravy train rolling

My calculation was based off 66M,though 65M appears to be equally likely as of this moment. 

0.00415 in my calculation based on estimated next difficulty 65M

Thank you, this is really grateful (and hopefully others jumping in onto the DMS stock can utilize the info as well)

Sounds about right.  It will be less than last one for sure.

There are several ways to compute the next SELLING dividend.

One way is to look at the current daily MINING dividend (0.00004949) and the number of dividend-days worth of NAV left ("Days dividend post div", 394.92), both stats from the report.

Now you need 2 additional numbers: the estimate for the next difficulty increase and the number of days (or more precise: MINING dividend payouts) until the next diff-change. You can fetch these from allchains.info. At the time of this post, the difficulty increase estimate is 29.4%, with the jump happening in 17 hours, so 1 more day of MINING dividends left at current difficulty. We subtract this upcoming payout from the "Days dividend post div" value to obtain 393.92.

The number of days of MINING dividend left after the difficulty increase will be 29.4% higher than just before the increase, so 393.92 * 1.294 = 509.73. At this point, MINING gets one more dividend at the new daily rate, lowering the NAV to 508.73 days of MINING dividends. If this is more than 410, SELLING will get a dividend large enough to reduce the value back to 400. In this case, SELLING would receive 108.73 days worth of MINING dividend at the rate *after* the difficulty increase. This rate is the current daily dividend divided by 1.294, which is 0.00003825 * (the estimated next MINING daily dividend). So SELLING can expect 108.73 * 0.00003825 = 0.00415892 as dividend.

Shortened, the formula to be used is:
(M / (1 + I)) * ((D - d) / (1 + I) - 401)
(M = current daily MINING dividend, D = "Days dividend post div" from the report, d = number of days until difficulty jump, I = difficulty increase fraction (10% means I = 0.1)). Note that this function doesn't include the check to see if the numbers of dividend-days is above 410.

This estimate is accurate as far as the difficulty prediction is accurate with the exception that it doesn't include increases in the NAV/U from sales and buybacks of PURCHASE or the gains from investments.

Dividend should be around .0043-.0044 or so.

You need to know what next difficulty will be to do that.  Dividend will be all capital above that needed to retain 400 days dividend for mining at the new difficulty.  Im not home and on my mobile so cant give even a ballpark figure for it.

noob question: How do I read the above reports to understand the possible dividend for DMS.SELLING?

BTC-TC is back running but no sign of teh dividends processing.  I gave it a while then cancelled both and resubmitted them for immediate payment.  Nothing more I can do other than wait - expect it's just that there's a lot of load on the server and it'll have to clear that before processing them.