Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 46. (Read 198958 times)

Sold   1125
Swapped   0
Total   1125
Price   0.01215
Total   13.66875
Less Fee   13.6414125
Man Fee   0.409242375

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1539.311341
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.1498005
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.581735
Coinlenders Cash   3.94820938
Just-Dice Balance    244.90000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,181.60108565
   
Outstanding MINING   179191
Outstanding SELLING   179191
Outstanding PURCHASE   9275
Effective Units   188466
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,176.14971735
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01154664
Days Dividend Post Div   399.19
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,176.14971735
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01154664
PURCHASE selling price    0.01212
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01132
   
J-D House profit at report   5706

Due to J-D losing a bit in the last day and few sales of PURCHASE yesterday, the SELLING dividend is very slightly lower than my estimate yesterday.

Sold   62
Swapped   0
Total   62
Price   0.01574
Total   0.97588
Less Fee   0.97392824
Man Fee   0.029217847

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   2166.450008
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.0287618
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.5172132
Coinlenders Cash   3.94598648
Just-Dice Balance    244.25000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,807.90196933
   
Outstanding MINING   176908
Outstanding SELLING   176908
Outstanding PURCHASE   10433
Effective Units   187341
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,802.48314159
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01495926
Days Dividend Post Div   517.18
SELLING Dividend    0.00338929
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,167.53109645
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01156998
PURCHASE selling price    0.01215
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01134
   
J-D House profit at report   5574

Ah I misunderstood that part. All is well then.

The bonds' face value is fixed in BTC so unaffected by exchange-rate moves.   It's only the interest that is calculated in EUR.  So we don't face losses if exchange-rate moves, just a change in the interest paid.

I mean, when we break it down, the issuers or managers orwhat ever you call these PBM founders, are they adding other controls to this market by possibly  colluding with the hardware manufacturers to keep delaying the shipment of the neccessary hardware so as to coincide with the date which would yield the shareholders the lowest amount over the break even point that they can possibly get? Or even more, could some enterprising gent working as a hardware maker have been the 1st to invent this methodology having seen an opportunity to "fleece the sheep twice" in a sense by becoming the 1st person to control this market explicitly by creating the hardware and then selling it as an investment, and even on top, keeping all monies by manipulating the market since they control it totally. Then it became standard market protocol when the competitors discovered this phenomenon and jumped on the bandwagon adopting these methods along the way? Is this a plausible scenario or am I in total tin-foil hat land here? Seemed that way to me from watching all those threads about X company doing this, and then a bit later Y company does a eerily similar sequence of events... From observing these companies, it certainly seems like standard protocol to decieve the investors by promising "1 more week, 2 more weeks!" etc.. and just goading them on until the sham gets to be untenable by all estimates. The gall and greed of these people if this is true... Money is no reason to become a bottom feeding integrity-devoid chiseler

I think I meant that the room for significant variance is not there. Im not sure what I meant TBH lol just trying to grasp this whole web of related interactions that seem-- at least on paper-- to have quite a muted variance, yet at face value they are seeing tons of speculation on both sides. Doesn't seem to jive unless one of the groups is being force fed disinformation.

Satoshi'sGreatMeta-MindF&ck.com Low Rakes under .00008895689384962%!!

Basically, the main risk is that the BTC price spikes and then the rate of return isn't great (in BTC), correct?

Price swings can be fast, just look at the last days 86€ -> 100€ in a matter of days if not hours. If luck is against us we could possibly lose a lot of money if Deprived is not there for a day or two to adequately react. That's not exactly the safest investment. To me this looks like possible infinite losses and a max of 50% gain.

This is the link to Kate's thread CIPHERBOND btw. Deprived could have linked it

agreed

this doesn't need to be a complete zero sum game, we can take water from the other pools

Good idea, I'm supporting it with my shares.

Motion for approval of an investment.  Motion is set to run for 3 days (as it isn't a change to contract - but rather a vote specifically detailed in the contract - it doesn't require a minimum of 7 days).

A motion has been raised on BTC-TC to allow investment in bonds issued by CIPHERMINE.  At present the bonds in question aren't approved for trade - and some minor changes to the contract are likely.  I'm raising the motion now so, if the motion passes, I have the option to invest when they launch - rather than THEN having to raise a motion and potentially miss out (as was the case with X-BOND which I'd have considered us investing in were there enough notice prior to IPO to pass a motion).

For our purposes it isn't particularly important whether or not our investors believe CIPHERMINE will be profitable, is a good investment and/or its shares are trading at a fair price.  All that matters to us is whether the bonds have sufficient backing and meet the conditions necessary for DMS to invest.

My belief is that they WILL meet our criteria - subject to Kate clarifying the extent to which all assets of CIPHERMINE back the bonds.

Although the bond has a face value in BTC it pays dividends based upon the EUR exchange-rate at the time they are issued.  Initially that will mean the interest rate will be 22% whatever it is measured in - but as the exchange-rate moves that could rise or fall when expressed in BTC.  So although it would definitely meet our minimum return criteria initially that could later change - if it changed unfavourably then obviously I would then need to cease buying more and divest.

Buy-back at face value is guaranteed (though with a 3 month waiting period if within first 12 months).  In practice I'd expect us to divest via the market if/when we need to.

My recommendation is to vote YES to this - but, as usual, I'll vote with my own shares in line with the majority view (i.e. I won't tip the vote to YES if the majority of others who vote choose NO).

The vote is to be allowed to invest up to 25% of capital in this - the actual amount invested would be determined by me based on the circumstances at the time.  This would effectively replace Coinlenders for us - offering similar rate of interest with faster liquidity (if via market) and slower liquidity (if via redemption with issuer).

NOT CURRENT REPORT - ESTIMATE FOR TOMORROW

This is an estimate for tomorrow ignoring all investment profit and any growth from sales/redemptions.

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   2165.504
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   200.9078086
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.452737
Coinlenders Cash   3.94376483
Just-Dice Balance    245.15000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,807.66831046
   
Outstanding MINING   176908
Outstanding SELLING   176908
Outstanding PURCHASE   10371
Effective Units   187279
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,802.25127607
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01496298
Days Dividend Post Div   517.30
SELLING Dividend    0.00339300
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,166.81375786
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01156998
PURCHASE selling price    0.01215
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01134

Sold   1782
Swapped   0
Total   1782
Price   0.01578
Total   28.11996
Less Fee   28.06372008
Man Fee   0.841911602

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   2172.666829
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   200.9078086
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.452737
Coinlenders Cash   3.94376483
Just-Dice Balance    245.15000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,814.83113903
   
Outstanding MINING   176908
Outstanding SELLING   176908
Outstanding PURCHASE   10371
Effective Units   187279
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,807.66887716
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01499190
Days Dividend Post Div   392.01
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,807.66887716
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01499190
PURCHASE selling price    0.01574
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01469
   
J-D House profit at report   5753

I was just picking out this part:



'Infinitesimally small' changes won't do much to the values here. I agree that 5-6% isn't a huge amount, I was just saying 'significant' compared to 'infinitesimally small'

Significant for what? To get a dividend or to be profitable? To get a (small) dividend for SELLING, the diff jump only needs to be around 5-6%

The changes to the Difficulty actually need to be quite significant.

This idea needs to be turned into a Bitcoin game.

I am very very fresh to any of this kind of simulation trading/speculation, but from what I gather and observe, he is essentially correct, minus the note that you are right in your own added respect. It seems like his presumption is inherently correct but doesn't incorporate the relative "unknown" rise (or fall) of the difficulty exponential (which we all must realize will likely be somewhere around a +20 to +50% increase). So basically the speculation in this PBM-modeled trading is based on the difficulty factor which is the hitherto driver of the action that provides the incentives for the buyers/sellers to buy/sell the .DPM-Mining and the DPM-Selling instruments each week based on that speculation.  Am I missing something? Is the overarching message here something grander than what I initially preconceived--that these PBMs are all essentially gussied up ponzies with an extremely slight element of chance based on the infinitesimally small fluctuations of the difficulty factor each week? Sorry if I worded the post like a giant pretzel of fuzzy words, it's just easier for me to wrap my head around when I use abstractions with big words

Yes - for you to make a significant profit someone else has to make a loss (not necessarily the person you buy from - could be someone earlier in the chain or someone you later sell to).  It's ALMOST a zero-sum game (it's not quite zero-sum because I take a 3% management fee out and also because profits are made from investment).