Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 49. (Read 198958 times)

But sometimes it will be 12 days and sometimes it will be 13 days. A fractional value accounts for that.

Nobody believes that exponential growth will continue forever (even Moore's Law can't last forever), but it will predict the difficulty accurately for the immediate future. Most importantly, because the difficulty is growing so quickly (and exponentially), it will make very little difference to the total mining revenue after 6 months of growth even if the difficulty completely stops rising.

In my view, difficulty will rise at a very steep exponential rate until power cost becomes a significant factor, at which point the rate will slow significantly. That point is at least 6 months away, so its effect on the value of a fixed hash rate is not yet significant.

Deprived only pays out dividends once per day, so a fractional value like 12.17 would not be used. Rather, only whole numbers will be utilized. This is why I simplified it to nearly 12's across the board.

Yea, come on. Someone needs to buy my DMS.Mining shares when I swap DMS.Purchase for a pair of Mining/Selling shares. Don't ruin it for the rest of us.

Also, the next difficulty change is going to be 40-45% increase.

If every one calculates like this, no one will buy any mining chips/machine ever. Most buyers don't believe the exponential difficulty growth will last forever. So the point is not what's the percentage increase every 12 days, but when the growth becomes linear.

While the concept is correct, there are two problems in your formula. Assuming the difficulty increases X% each period,

First: You are computing the sum of the power series, S = 1/(1-r), letting r = 1-X, but I believe the correct value for r is 1/(1+X). This simplifies to S = (1+X)/X.

Second: The length of the period will average 14/(1+X) dividends. The actual number will vary, so I believe the average can be used for a more accurate result (you use a fixed integral number).

Also note that ...*14/(1+X)*(1+X)/X simplifies to ...*14/X.

With your numbers, the result after these corrections are:

30% Difficulty increase every 10.77 days - (5*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.3)*14)/.3) = 0.00156392
25% Difficulty increase every 11.20 days - (6*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.25)*14)/.25) = 0.00190435
20% Difficulty increase every 11.67 days - (6*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.2)*14)/.2) = 0.00242187
15% Difficulty increase every 12.17 days - (7*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.15)*14)/.15) = 0.00329474
10% Difficulty increase every 12.73 days - (7*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.1)*14)/.1) = 0.00505811

Let me know if I overlooked something.

Just some calculations to keep people informed on the viability or lack there of regarding DMS.Mining

Lifetime payouts assuming:
30% Difficulty increase every 12 days - (7*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.3)*12)/.3) = 0.00144429538461
25% Difficulty increase every 12 days - (7*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.25)*12)/.25) = 0.001736096
20% Difficulty increase every 12 days - (7*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.2)*12)/.2) = 0.00217968
15% Difficulty increase every 12 days - (7*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.15)*12)/.15) = 0.00292785
10% Difficulty increase every 13 days - (8*0.00003824)+(((0.00003824/1.1)*13)/.1) = 0.0048251927

Invest accordingly

Is this offer open for everyone?

I also think that this whole "it's fictional" thing isn't going to provide any real protection whatsoever, and if someone thinks it does, it is a dangerous sign.

I definitely understand. If you'd like to pull the CDs right now I'm happy to oblige, just let me know. Don't read the changes the wrong way through.

Further to the above, TradeFortress has announced that Coinlenders is closing - and that the current site is only a demo, but one which has the same functionality as a real site would (a similarish approach to BTC-TC's "it's just a game" stance - though actually a worse one from an investor's perspective).

I was going to raise a vote on whether to stay invested or not - but that's pointless now as it's closing.  We'll pull our coins out when the CDs mature.  I couldn't care less if he wants to rename interest to "fee rebates" etc - it's the lack of any visible backing for deposits that's the real killer.  Without any personal guarantee to repay deposits I'd want to see some form of accounts and know to what extent capital exceeded deposits to allow for losses without depositors being impacted.

And I'm never impressed by a change in the TOS and/or contract for something without any notification or option to exit under the old (accepted) terms.

Sold   5243
Swapped   0
Total   5243
Price   0.01598
Total   83.78314
Less Fee   83.61557372
Man Fee   2.508467212

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   2011.153756
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   200.1806662
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.0651211
Coinlenders Cash   3.93046117
Just-Dice Balance    243.39000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,650.43000469
   
Outstanding MINING   165679
Outstanding SELLING   165679
Outstanding PURCHASE   8433
Effective Units   174112
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,643.77129903
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01518431
Days Dividend Post Div   397.04
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,643.77129903
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01518431
PURCHASE selling price    0.01594
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01488
   
J-D House profit at report   5353

One of our CDs on coinlenders matured and a new one was bought.  The interest from the old one is listed as cash there as I haven't withdrawn it yet - as there's 2 withdrawal fees now (one to withdraw to inupts.io then a 2nd to withdraw back to BTC-TC).

The terms of coinlenders have changed - there's no longer a personal guarantee on the loans.  As there's no guarantee AND there's no disclosure of assets backing the deposits (and they can be used for speculation not just for safe loans) I'm not certain Coinlenders even meets our investment criteria any more.

Sold   1438
Swapped   0
Total   1438
Price   0.01601
Total   23.02238
Less Fee   22.97633524
Man Fee   0.689290057

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1936.504133
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.9282483
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.0003511
Just-Dice Balance    244.10000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,576.24273245
   
Outstanding MINING   162263
Outstanding SELLING   162263
Outstanding PURCHASE   6606
Effective Units   168869
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,569.78453906
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01521762
Days Dividend Post Div   397.91
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,569.78453906
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01521762
PURCHASE selling price    0.01598
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01491
   
J-D House profit at report   5521

Sold   3597
Swapped   0
Total   3597
Price   0.01605
Total   57.73185
Less Fee   57.6163863
Man Fee   1.728491589

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1920.619559
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.8604451
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.93536953
Just-Dice Balance    243.80000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,559.92537390
   
Outstanding MINING   160934
Outstanding SELLING   160934
Outstanding PURCHASE   6497
Effective Units   167431
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,553.52217511
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01525119
Days Dividend Post Div   398.79
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,553.52217511
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01525119
PURCHASE selling price    0.01601
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01495
   
J-D House profit at report   5449

I'm surprised people aren't buying more into this. With the current prices of DMS.MINING and expected hashrate increase, there are still hearty profits to be made.

Sold   13644
Swapped   0
Total   13644
Price   0.01606
Total   219.12264
Less Fee   218.6843947
Man Fee   6.560531842

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1870.996585
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.7282228
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.87015028
Just-Dice Balance    243.74341540
TOTAL ASSETS    2,510.04837368
   
Outstanding MINING   156881
Outstanding SELLING   156881
Outstanding PURCHASE   6953
Effective Units   163834
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,503.78273786
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01528244
Days Dividend Post Div   399.61
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,503.78273786
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01528244
PURCHASE selling price    0.01605
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01498
   
J-D House profit at report   5430

I guess hashrate reduces slightly because a part of miners swithes to PPCoin for a day or two.

Sold   3205
Swapped   0
Total   3205
Price   0.02048
Total   65.6384
Less Fee   65.5071232
Man Fee   1.965213696

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    2,292.48224725
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.5971539
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.80549990
Just-Dice Balance    243.55000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,931.14490106
   
Outstanding MINING   144608
Outstanding SELLING   144608
Outstanding PURCHASE   5582
Effective Units   150190
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,925.40106374
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01947800
Days Dividend Post Div   509.31
SELLING Dividend    0.00418048
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,297.53492857
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01529752
PURCHASE selling price    0.01606
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01499
   
J-D House profit at report   5384

Have locked PURCHASE slightly earlier than usual so I could audit numbers prior to the SELLING dividend - as there were buybacks of PURCHASE as well as sales I wanted to make sure everything added up.

Dividend is going to be almost exactly what I predicted yesterday - although there were sales and redemptions that was balanced by a bad day on J-D (we lost ~1 BTC).

SELLING will be briefly closed to clear order book and then reopened just before I do the SELLING dividends.

I think both of you are seeing patterns where none exist (which is a typical human thing to do).

There is no incentive to shut down hashing just prior to a difficulty adjustment. The effect on the new difficulty is minimal and you lose more from lost mining time than from the marginally lower difficulty.

Additionally, the only reason to shut down a rig is when the electricity cost outweighs the income. While many rigs may not be profitable anymore in the sense that they won't earn back their purchase price, all ASICs are still making more coins than they cost to keep running, so there's no reason to turn off an ASIC that you have running. And by now, the fraction of GPU-miners is so low that GPUs being turned off isn't going to make a noticeable dent in the charts.