Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 56. (Read 198958 times)

The exchange bot will be turned off briefly on the hour to prevent anyone getting to double-dip on dividends if PURCHASE ones happen to go out first.  At that point I'll also clear SELLING orderbook and suspend it briefly - it'll be available again immediately for trading, it won't stay down (like PURCHASE will) until I've verified accounts are correct.

Yeah if you would not clear the orderbooks so I could make a larger profit that would be great 

Yeah that would be the ideal solution.

Awww. There's always an adult around to ruin my fun. Seriously, most major exchanges automatically adjust prices after a dividend. It would be awesome if burnside implemented that feature. That would fix the problem.

Well that's where I'd likely have to clear orders.  I haven't got a spreadsheet updated for todays sales/investments etc - but what I DO know is exactly what the price of PURCHASE will be afterwards.  It'll be 400 days of new dividend giving a PURCHASE selling price of .02079.

If there's any significant amount of bids on SELLING above that then I can safely assume the owners wouldn't want the bids to remain and will really have no option but to clear the SELLING order book immediately before I pay the dividend.  Whilst I try to stay out of the SELLING/MINING markets as a manager (I still buy and sell them just like anyone else) I really have no option but to intervene if it's apparent someone could suffer significant loss from not understanding the security (or being unexpectedly unable to get to a computer to cancel their orders).

I'd MUCH prefer not to have to do that.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that it is not "panic" selling. It is a competition for free money. I know for a fact that there are at least 3 people (including me) that try to sell to the bids immediately after the dividend is paid.

Right now there is a bid for 1000 shares of selling at 0.022. I won't sell for less than 0.025, but if the dividend is 0.007, then the value of the shares will drop by 0.007. After the dividend, I won't sell for less than 0.018, but I will definitely sell for 0.022 (and make an instant 22% profit).

So, I guarantee you that if that bid for 1000 shares is there when the dividend is paid, it will be filled.

It's not quite that easy.  By the time the dividend finishes processing any high SELLING orders will have been filled anyway (pretty sure they get filled by people as soon as they receive their own dividend).  So there's no window after dividend processing where an order book clear would be possible.

And I can't predict when dividend payment will occur - sometimes it happens right after I put it up for immediate payment, other times I've seen dividends not even start for 10-20 minutes after I put them up for immediate payment.

So only option is to lock the security and clear entire order book before I put the dividends up - and force people to try to market-make from scratch again afterwards.

I'll admit to being tempted to do that this time - on past dividends there's never been orders that I could be certain the buyers wanted cleared (SELLING is now trading above even the highest bids filled post-dividend last time).  This time it may be different - with potentially there being bids up above the new PURCHASE selling price.  If there's a significant number of bids that would be above new PURCHASE then I'd have to consider it - much as I hate to interfere in the market to protect people who have only themselves to blame.

I lock PURCHASE for trading and clear all orders on it just before the dividend gets paid but not SELLING.

If I had a way to selectively clear orders then I'd willingly clear any orders that were above the new value for PURCHASE (if that occurs) - but my options are either to clear whole order book or clear nothing (for the record I DON'T believe issuers should have the ability to selectively clear orders).

Problem with clearing SELLING totally is it penalises people who put up orders they wanted to leave up and aren't around to replace - I've personally put a buy up on SELLING intentionally shortly before dividend and watched it get panic-filled after.

The principle of DMS has always been that I control the price of PURCHASE and MINING/SELLING are completely under the control of anyone who wants to buy/sell them.  I don't intend to change that unless something unexpected ever happens - and SELLING dividends after difficulty changes are entirely expected, standard and predictable.

As someone mentioned earlier, today's dividend will be somewhere around .0068 - .007 (exact value depends on how J-D did today, how many PURCHASE sell in total etc).

MINING dividend  today will be paid at old rate per my personal promise a while back - I'll be refunding the difference between old and new dividends to the fund (as I've done the few times before when difficulty changed between 16:00 and 00:00) with calculation for that included in the report..

I think this is also a good solution. Does it work as this now?

Would clearing the orderbooks after SELLING div payout be that bad?

I am afraid the answer is yes. Current bid of Selling is 0.002452. The new purchase price will be around 0.022 to 0.021. I think the price of Selling will drop to around 0.0019-0.0018.

A solution to what problem exactly? Also, we already know when the div will be paid out - the same time it has always been paid out - about 1 hour and 40 minutes from now.

Why will buyers suffer? Are you assuming that the new price of DMS.PURCHASE will drop below the current price of DMS.SELLING buy orders?

It is due to panic. Speculators want to sell their DMS.SELLING shares before the current price of DMS.SELLING drops below the price they paid minus dividends. They see the buy orders getting filled and the price dropping, which reinforces the panic that they're going to end up taking a loss. When the dust settles, the price starts to rise again and MINING starts to drop.

Go and check the trade history like I said. It's pretty clear that the sell off is due to panic. You can clearly see that if the speculators waited an extra day to sell out instead of doing so right after the div payment, they would have made more profit.

Maybe one solution is to lock the fund for a day after dividend paying, and people can only cancel orders in this period. Otherwise at least announce the dividend time one day in advance and warn those buyers leaving buying orders pending. Especially when there's a bot there to help converting Purchase.

Maybe it is not due to panic. The price of Purchase drops after dividend. The price of Selling roughly equals Purchase - Mining. So it should drops equally. Otherwise people may buy Purchase and sell Selling for a large gain. The price of Selling only comes back if the price of Mining drops. According to figure in coinflow, the price dropped almost the value of dividend, and the slowly comes back after around 10 days. But we can see that one month ago, the price increased only half of the dividend, maybe due to low hash rate increase.

Hours before dividend. Still a lot of buy orders hanging there. Would it be more fair if the bidding wall in a certain range be reset after dividend? Otherwise many buyers may suffer a lot.

The panic sell off after the dividend payout is pretty funny as the price starts rising again pretty much immediately. You're better off waiting until the day after if you want to sell. A look through the trade history will confirm this.

No, it's the market. If you leave your buying order hanging after the dividend it will be gobbled up within seconds. Caveat emptor.

May I ask a newbie question? After the dividend paid out, will the price of SELLING drop automatically by system? Or it drops due to the market? Is it safe to leave pending buying orders on before dividend paying time? Will they be filled in the huge dip due to the dividend? Thanks.