Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 58. (Read 198958 times)

I have no idea what you are saying. SELLING will always be valued at PURCHASE - MINING. Otherwise there will be arbitrage.

If they change it to 20 Mh/s then the current dividend would be 0.00027 per share approximately.  400 days would be around 0.107 per share.  Subtract what the Mining security might be valued around 0.014, and the Selling security would probably be valued at over 0.08
edited: used wrong numbers

Why? Remember that there will be only half (or a quarter) the number of securities outstanding.

The buyback and days of dividends kept would have to be lowered a lot for that security, otherwise it wouldn't just work out that way. 

I'm very impressed with the DMS.PURCHASE fund. It is a very clever construct that lets you go both long and short on mining. The problem with it is that it stops working when the two sides get "out of the money". Right now, in my opinion MINING is still overpriced but the potential profit on SELLING makes it unattractive.

For it to be an effective short it has to be more or less balanced, so that both sides has equal profit chances. SELLING is bounded above by the price of PURCHASE, so it has almost no upside when MINING gets cheap.

It could very well be the other way around if difficulty started decreasing, pushing up the price of MINING.

The optimal situation would be when we have the prices of MINING and SELLING roughly equal. This can be achieved by upgrading the MINING contract.

When MINING falls below a 25% of PURCHASE (NAV/U) then issue a new PURCHASE contract based on a mining contract with double the old hashrate. Whenever the price goes above 75% then issue one with half the hashrate. The old MINING/SELLING contracts don't need to be withdrawn.

Right now though, MINING has fallen in price so much that it would be better to quadruple the hashrate to 20. Rename the old PURCHASE to PURCHASE5 and issue a new instrument PURCHASE20 (=MINING20 + SELLING20) which is exactly like the old with one difference. The MINING part is a 20MH/s bond instead of 5MH/s. This will in theory quadruple the price of MINING to about 0.014 and lower the price of SELLING to about 0.014. Mission accomplished.

You then stop selling the old PURCHASE5 and start offering PURCHASE20 instead. Also offer the holders of current combo to turn every four pairs of MINING5+SELLING5 into one PURCHASE20.

The only question remaining is. What if you don't have an amount evenly divisible by four that can be converted? I don't see a real problem with this, since the market for MINING5/SELLING5 will still exist and anyone can just sell the instruments or buy a few extra to make the numbers work out.

Is this something you would consider?

Sold   755
Swapped   0
Total   755
Price   0.02806
Total   21.1853
Less Fee   21.1429294
Man Fee   0.634287882

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,428.67935581
10164 LTC-ATF.B1    101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    201.89526460
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.90366229
Just-Dice Balance    160.32389937
TOTAL ASSETS    1,994.44218207
   
Outstanding MINING   68505
Outstanding SELLING   68505
Outstanding PURCHASE   6066
Effective Units   74571
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   37,392,766
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00006725
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00336232
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00672465
365 days (Buyback)    0.02454497
405 days (IPO)    0.02723483
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.02689860
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02757106
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,989.42754343
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02667830
Days Dividend Post Div   396.72
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,989.42754343
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.02667830
PURCHASE selling price    0.02801
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.02614
   
J-D House profit at report   4433

Thank you very much, this is what I was looking for.

I have the past difficulties up on my site here: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/diff.txt

They auto-update every time the difficulty changes.

It also shows the length of the difficulty period in question, which is something that some people overlook. When the difficulty increases by, say, 20%, not only is the difficulty 20% higher but the adjustment also happened 20% faster than the 14 days that the difficulty adjustment targets for.

This means that if difficulty increases by 20% each difficulty period, it will be increase by a factor of 380 in one year, and not a factor of 116, which is the result you would get if you assumed a 14 day difficulty period.

No plan at all.  Not quite sure what you're even suggesting really.

This one only ends if/when SELLING vote to close it (barring unforeseen circumstances where there couldn't be a replacement anyway - as if I could run a replacement I could continue running this one).  And I don't see any way SELLING would vote right now to close and give MINING 90% of all the money.  Until/unless difficulty increases drop until they're barely moving at all I can't see SELLING wanting to close - and that seems very unlikely to happen in the near future.

Price adjusted fast.  We've had a nice run for Dms.Selling.  Any plans to issue a renewed version of these securities?

I'm hesitant to invest more right now (especially into current investments) - as the next difficulty change looks to be large which means a large chunk of capital is likely to be returned to SELLING.  It's still too early to give any sort of accurate guesses for the change and size of dividends - but percentage-wise (if not in absolute terms) it looks likely to be largest yet.

Other fixed-rate options are:

BTC-Bond - buyback is at full face-value, so good liquidity for us there.  But dividends are pretty tiny and no detail of backing seems to be provided any more.
Graet.Loan - A loan apparently largely to repay funds stolen from his mining pool.  Meaning no disclosed backing for capital.
FIMB - issuer buy-back is only at 95% of face-value which is a bigger hair-cut then I'm comfortable taking.
LTC-ATF.B2 - Unfortunately we can't invest in that as it would be against BTC-TC asset-issuer TOS (have mentioned that before).  LTC-ATF.B1 is fine by the asset issuer TOS as the restriction only applies to assets with the same issuer that are listed on BTC-TC.

Investment in LTC-ATF.B2 would be fine by the spirit of the rule - which was to prevent cross-security equity ownership (not debt) - but the letter of the TOS rules it out so I've avoided it.

The next new security for LTC-ATF is just a fractional ASIC-MINER pass-through on LTC-Global - so of no interest/relevance to DMS.  Whilst it would definitely be in SELLING holders' interests to invest more widely it can't be done as MINING don't gain from it and their backing has to be preserved.

The securities after that to be launched by LTC-ATF MAY be of interest, but due to an interesting situation (which will be obvious when they're launcehd) they wouldn't allow DMS to substantially increase invested capital (maybe an extra 10-15%).  As one pair of those will be on LTC-Global they COULD be invested in without breaking the letter of the TOS.  Not sure just when those will be out - could be as soon as tomorrow, might be another week - I have some more work to do checking the math before I can list them.

I'm fine with putting Ukyo.Loan up for vote as soon as some evidence is presented of liquid BTC-denominated assets backing them.  Ability to redeem such instruments is one of the key considerations when investing DMS funds - that he can definitely service them and repay them eventually isn't too useful if and when DMS eventually closes and we want cash back ASAP.

Yeah it's running fine - have seen various of your batches go through.

I own some SELLING and I would like to see another investment with DMS balance, if it is possible.
I have already send PM to Ukyo asking about backing of his Ukyo.Loan, but he didn't replied yet.

What other investment options suitable for DMS are there?

Also whenever will LTC.ATF be selling new bonds we should be buying as many of those as possible.
What about your new security, Deprived, is it suitable for DMS investment?

I'm assuming your bot is still running so I will be sending in lots of 25 shares (I have over 300 to trade) for DMS.MINING/SELLING.

Sold   1819
Swapped   0
Total   1819
Price   0.02811
Total   51.13209
Less Fee   51.02982582
Man Fee   1.530894775

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,413.13475241
10164 LTC-ATF.B1    101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    201.76430784
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.83906723
Just-Dice Balance    159.50000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,977.87812748
   
Outstanding MINING   67612
Outstanding SELLING   67612
Outstanding PURCHASE   6204
Effective Units   73816
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   37,392,766
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00006725
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00336232
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00672465
365 days (Buyback)    0.02454497
405 days (IPO)    0.02723483
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.02689860
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02757106
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,972.91425995
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02672746
Days Dividend Post Div   397.46
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,972.91425995
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.02672746
PURCHASE selling price    0.02806
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.02619
   
J-D House profit at report   4215

0.63347130 BTC was received as this week's LTC-ATF.B1 dividend.

I've patched the code for now and auto-transfer is running again - had already manually caught up on the few missed since it stopped.  Will check in a few minutes in case anyone sent just as it started.

Automated transfers are down at the moment.  Burnside just changed output for transaction history - adding in a unique transaction ID.  Whilst that's great longer-term (allows far more rigorous checking) it breaks the code for now.  Am having a look to see if I can quickly bodge around it for now (by ignoring it when parsing) until the developer can update to handle the new format.

Sold   1236
Swapped   0
Total   1236
Price   0.02817
Total   34.81812
Less Fee   34.74848376
Man Fee   1.042454513

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,367.84405354
10164 LTC-ATF.B1    101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    201.63351930
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.77455515
Just-Dice Balance    159.49605424
TOTAL ASSETS    1,932.38818223
   
Outstanding MINING   65193
Outstanding SELLING   65193
Outstanding PURCHASE   6804
Effective Units   71997
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   37,392,766
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00006725
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00336232
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00672465
365 days (Buyback)    0.02454497
405 days (IPO)    0.02723483
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.02689860
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02757106
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,927.54663608
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02677260
Days Dividend Post Div   398.13
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,927.54663608
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.02677260
PURCHASE selling price    0.02811
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.02624
   
J-D House profit at report   4205

Sold   2685
Swapped   0
Total   2685
Price   0.02822
Total   75.7707
Less Fee   75.6191586
Man Fee   2.268574758

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,338.89664703
10164 LTC-ATF.B1    101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    201.50588306
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.71159795
Just-Dice Balance    159.47092745
TOTAL ASSETS    1,903.22505549
   
Outstanding MINING   64234
Outstanding SELLING   64234
Outstanding PURCHASE   6527
Effective Units   70761
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   37,392,766
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00006725
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00336232
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00672465
365 days (Buyback)    0.02454497
405 days (IPO)    0.02723483
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.02689860
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02757106
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,898.46662601
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02682928
Days Dividend Post Div   398.97
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,898.46662601
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.02682928
PURCHASE selling price    0.02817
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.02629
   
J-D House profit at report   4198

Thanks, but right now it's already being tested by myself and one other. If you ignore my upcoming vacation next week, I will have the first version ready for release soon.

It will include a very basic client that has a few buttons to push and levers to pull that demonstrate the functionality, but it won't do anything fancy. That's up to others to develop.