Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 57. (Read 198958 times)

i am in some share with DMS. 

should be in 8 hours at around .0069 btc/share ( a little higher depending on dms.purchase sales in the last day, may end up near .007)

Good points.  I do think there would be room for 2 or 3 more similar securites with different specs.  One for every investor who has their own idea for what spec it should have would get ridiculous.  Even 5 I think might be overdoing it.

The dividend for SELLING will be today? What is your estimate?

You're very welcome. I was looking for something like this and couldn't find it so I created it myself.

The storage medium on the server that runs this just died on me though, so it's not updating right now. It will be back up when I get my new storage medium.

About 6 people were doing frequent arbitrage - I believe one of them may even be using a bot to do it.  Majority of transfers come from a handful of people.

Well, not dividing SELLING by 4 was one of the possible step 2s.

The high volume of trade yesterday would suggest a lot of people are still finding value in both SELLING and MINING - but at any price point there are going to be some who believe neither offers sufficient profit to be worth investing in.  DMS only works at all because people have different views on the value of MINING/SELLING - if everyone agreed on value then they'd trade a discount to PURCHASE (representing perceived CP risk/time-cost of money) and there'd be zero new sales of PURCHASE other than to the occasional random-clicker.

When MINING is a small portion of PURCHASE there doesn't have to be a HUGE perceived profit on SELLING for it to make sense.  That's because any valuation which makes SELLING worth the vast majority of PURCHASE MUST be based on very large short-term difficulty increases.  Very large short-term difficulty increases necessarily mean very large SELLING dividends in the near future - meaning most of the price paid for SELLING gets returned fairly quickly.

That last point is where a lot of people go wrong.  It's entirely WRONG to turn down an investment just because it can 'only' make 10%, 5% or 1% profit.  Time-scale has to be taken into account.  What's better - an investment that gives 60% profit after a year or one that gives 1% profit after a week (assuming an unlimited availability of both at all times - and that capital is returned at same time as the profit)?  The 1% per week is better - as with compounding it outperforms the 60%.  Percentage profit on its own is meaningless - it needs an associated time-period to be a useful measure.

None of which is to deny that for ANY investor there IS a point at which buying neither of MINING or SELLING makes sense.  But I can't run a seperate version of DMS for every investor based on how they want to price them - people who believe the price now matches their personal valuation (and won't change favourably) and so want to liquidate their position represent a key part of liquidity for the securities.

There was quite some arbitrage opportunity recently, before and after the bot went live. I think I bought several times the coins I have invested in DMS worth of PURCHASE (still not much, but many small batches to transfer) recently to benefit from this.

The particular arbitrage avenue I exploited has ended, at least for now.

Someone was doing arbitrage. So it might not have happened without the bot.

Don't think the extra trading volume was because of the bot - though I'm glad it didn't show up until after the bot was running (there were over 100 transfers in of PURCHASE yesterday - more than I normally get in a week).

I believe the extra trading volume is largely because MINING price has dropped to being a LOT cheaper than PMBs.  That's led to more interest in it - and to MINING+SELLING being much nearer to PURCHASE (so if someone wants a MINING or a SELLING it's often been cheaper to buy a PURCHASE and sell the other half - which wasn't the case for a while).

I just recently started trading this again and I have to say props on the Automatic Transfer bot,as it really seems to have sparked significantly increased trading volume.

Yes, you're right it doesn't work. It's pretty obvious too, now that I think about it

I didn't mean to multiply everything by four though. Only the mining side. Still, that would destroy the 1:1 ratio between mining and selling for the old shares, and the exchange into new would not work. Well, well.

Our 100 BTC Coinlenders CD matured today - left it in report as its final value.

I've bought a new one at same amount and am about to move the interest back to our BTC-T wallet.  I could have sent more cash and made it a 200 BTC one as our assets were high enough but didn't as there'll be a large chunk going out on next SELLING dividend.  What I'll do is in a week's time deposit more there and buy a new one once I see how much reinvestment there is after the SELLING dividend.

Today there was a LOT of activity on PURCHASE but I don't want to assume that will continue.  If it does then I can purchase a third CD next week and have our CD returns better spaced out anyway.  Ideally I'd like us to have 4 with one maturing each week.  The difference in rates between a 100 BTC one and a 200 BTC one are pretty small in any event.

Sold   8832
Swapped   0
Total   8832
Price   0.02801
Total   247.38432
Less Fee   246.8895514
Man Fee   7.406686541

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,663.14718263
10164 LTC-ATF.B1    101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    202.02801424
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.93762759
Just-Dice Balance    160.60000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,229.35282446
   
Outstanding MINING   78524
Outstanding SELLING   78524
Outstanding PURCHASE   4879
Effective Units   83403
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   37,392,766
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00006725
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00336232
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00672465
365 days (Buyback)    0.02454497
405 days (IPO)    0.02723483
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.02689860
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02757106
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,223.74426475
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02666264
Days Dividend Post Div   396.49
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,223.74426475
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.02666264
PURCHASE selling price    0.02800
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.02613
   
J-D House profit at report   4526

It doesn't work like that.  For MINING to be worth the same and SELLING to be worth less the number of days dividend held in reserve would have to drop a lot, so would the buy-back terms for MINING etc.  If that happened then the value of MINING would drop a lot and no longer be 4 times current price - plus the whole nature of DMS would be changed.

The relative percentages of the prices wouldn't change at all without terms also changing.

If you can't see this clearly then consider doing what you propose in 2 stages and it shold become obvious:

1.  Multiply everything by 4 - so MINING is worth 4 times as much and PURCHASE costs 4 times as much.  Hopefully you can see how if this were done then SELLING would also be 4 times the price - and 1 'new' share would be identical to 4 'old' ones with exactly same ratio of MINING:SELLING prices and so precisely same % profit potential on each.
2.  ?

What is it you think you can do in 2 that suddenly removes 75% of SELLING's value whilst leaving MINING unchanged?

I give up. I'm obviously not getting through to you.

Since the numbers are per share it doesn't matter how many more or less shares there are.

This is unfair, it's totally not dumb to "click links", it's dumb to have such a hole in a site.

No. The total amount paid in dividends stay the same because there are 4 times as much money paid per share but only 1/4 as many shares.

You were saying Mining and Selling could both be valued at around 0.014, then Dms. Purchase would be around 0.028 which with 4x the hashing power(20 Mh/s) would only be 1/4 the days dividends, ~100 days.