Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 81. (Read 198958 times)

Oh, thanks, fixed!

Yeah - assuming you have 2FA on.  Otherwise think it's .25%.

Actually no - it's wrong

*1.002 on buys, *.998 sells.

You were applying 2% not 0.2%.

Ooh, true, that makes sense, my bad!

Done, and accounted for the fee on buying SELLING too.
Hoping I've done everything right (*1.02 buys, *0.98 sells, is that correct?).

If coinlenders were to default then we'd lose the principal - not just the interest.  So I'd have to be marking it down immediately to reflect the risk of that.
By the same token I should make down ALL the capital as if BTC-TC defaults we lose it.

There's CP risk on the capital wherever it is - I'm not going to start applying different multipliers to each bit of cash to reflect some relative risk-assessment.  We now (or when it getst here) have 200 (+accrued interest) exposure to Coinlenders and the same amount less CP exposure to BTC-TC.  I'm treating thos two as cancelling one another out - for simplicity.

I see no reason to believe Coinlenders is more likely to steal interest than principal - so all cash on deposit there is being treated the same.

Please pardon my noobness, but I don't get it.

The (of course remote) risk with Coinlenders, is that they default the payment. So, until they have actually paid us back, we would be still running that risk. When they pay back, that risk is averted. So it would make perfect sense to have PURCHASE cheaper until they paid back, because they would be still under the default risk.

Thanks for jumping on that, Deprived! This is a very well managed security.

Also:

Sold   505
Swapped   0
Total   505
Price   0.053705
Total   27.121025
Less Fee   27.06678295
Man Fee   0.812003489

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,257.85886871
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,382.85886871
   
Outstanding MINING   26681
Outstanding SELLING   26681
Outstanding PURCHASE   348
Effective Units   27029
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,379.34449907
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05103202
Days Dividend Post Div   392.49
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,379.34449907
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05103202
PURCHASE selling price    0.05358362
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05001138

Have got 1862 more LTC-ATF.B1 for us at face value from an investor who wanted to sell.

Currently awaiting manual processing:
  Withdrawal of 200 requested 2013-06-28 16:06:26. Cancel
  Withdrawal of 100 requested 2013-06-28 16:37:05. Cancel
  Withdrawal of 18.62 requested 2013-06-28 16:55:02. Cancel

That's our pending withdrawals - the third one is the payment for the LTC-ATB.B1 which will be in our account on LTC-Global shortly.

A 100 BTC withdrawal has been initiated to Just-Dice.

Destination BTC address is : 1DyF66SU2B4oYUyFKHFdXaq3VTranjz8k2

So when it leaves BTC-TC you should see a transaction show up headed to there.

Both motions passed, so I'll be transferring 200 BTC to CoinLenders and buying a 30-day CD and depositing 100 BTC into Just-Dice.

For today's report (in about an hour) that 300 BTC will be shown as on BTC-TC - if the actual balance drops then it means burnside has approved the manual withdrawals.  As I can't predict when that will happen I'll just leave it as though it was in BTC-TC for now.

In future reports those investments will be individually reported.  Coinlenders will have the interest calculated and applied daily (we get it all at the end of 30 days but it would be wrong not to add it until then - as we'd be selling new PURCHASE too cheaply).  With Just-Dice I'll be reporting the actual balance at (or around) each report - it may be some minutes out of date.

Withdrawal to Coinlenders has already been initiated - and is waiting on manual processing.

Here's confirmation of the address being sent to - so if the BTC-TC balance drops you should see 200 BTC on its way to this address.

Message   CoinLenders User Deprived Deposit Address: 1JmP3seEPDvajmpYchJhAQeigsLWqSMzxK Server 1
Signature   IDP2437qPrH86nPQ9nRwV5gBN62teNVX8MuU3ePWVyPuI+CWQ/j3OOxYHgHpY74EWq7SoaW3OK5WE7frkA433Gk=
Signing Addr   See here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2250828

My accounts with Coinlenders and Just-Dice will, of course, have 2FA (it's already switched on for Coinlenders).

Correct.

If the difficulty adjustment occurs on June 29th, SELLING will get dividends on the 30th, correct?

wow, thanks! : )

I used this as a source, apparently it is lower now.

True I forgot about that!
I'll fix it tomorrow if I can...

It's BFL making them - EVERYTHING poses a problem (other than taking cash for pre-orders).

At least a 10% increase makes sense. It was around 5% half way through the round and about 7.3% 3/4 of the way through. Next round will see a higher increase due to the Minirigs coming online. Just one a day leads to an increase in difficulty of 1 million. Assembling 10 a day would pose no problems if the components were on hand.

Hadn't noticed that - it really seems to have shot up suddenly in last few hours.  Either a bunch of machines have been turned on or there's been goof network luck and blocks have been found faster than standard.  There's only a few days until next difficulty change - and it's still possible for SELLING to get a very good dividend or no dividend at all.  Which is why any decent model predicts a range NOT a fixed value.

Even if some participants in DMS lose money (and it's a certainty some will - just unknown which ones) they'll hopefully learn enough from it that the loss doesn't sting too badly and saved them more on future trades in other securities.

BTC Bond I haven't proposed yet.  It offers very low return (about 11% per year) and I haven't been able to find namworld's spreadsheet that lists the assets he has backing it.  Last time I saw it was about a month ago (and it was a month out of date then) and from memory bulk of investments were in 3 shares on Bitfunder - one of which (Ziggap) was a scam and has vanished.  If you have the link to it then I'd be grateful for it - thought it was in the details for BTCBOND but it doesn't appear to be there any more.

Without any list of assets (and with the last list I saw having 1/3 of them something which turned out to be a scam and the rest mainly 2 shares I believe to have high USD exposure) I can't see 11% return justifying the CP risk.

I'll make a seperate post about GRAET.LOAN later - that offers a much higher rate but in my view has way to much risk for reasons that may not be immediately evident when reading the IPO details.

From my perspective as manager I'd love nothing better than if all proposals to invest got voted no - means less work for me with no change in my management fee.

As a MINING investor (I hold MINING shares) I don't really care so long as there's no risk of more than about 1/3 of capital being lost (there's no way in short-term MINING can end up entitled to more than 2/3 of capital).

As a SELLING investor I'm fine with any investment that I'd be happy with risking my money in normally.  I stand to get the profits or losses - exactly as though it were a straight investment directly into them.  In fact I'll invest in things I otherwise wouldn't - as I CAN'T invest in the things I'd usually invest in, due to them being much higher risk AND reward.

I have no problem at all if the consensus of SELLING holders is not to invest.  With current variability of difficulty I'll have to keep at least 30-40% of capital totally liquid anyway - but I'm fine with investing the rest.

There's one last point about investment that hasn't been mentioned but should.  Investing elsewhere DOES bring new CP risk - but in theory also reduces the CP risk in respect of myself and BTC-TC.  At present all capital has direct exposure to myself and burnside/BTC-TC/LTC-Global.  Investment elsewhere reduces one or both of those risks - e.g. If we had 2 CDs with TF for 200 BTC each (won't be the case immediately) then in theory there's less cash I (or burnside) could steal.  Obviously CP exposure to ME isn't something I personally have a problem with - but everyone else should at least be considering it (as you should with ALL investments you make).

I am concerned that risk is being overlooked in the enthusiasm to invest DMS capital. Investment of DMS capital increases the risk of loss for both SELLING and MINING.

People investing in DMS (whether MINING or SELLING) are investing in the future difficulty value. There is no need to complicate the investment further and increase its risk of loss by investing the fund's capital.

All that money sitting around doing nothing is a itch that people (and Deprived) need to scratch, but this may be a case where the reward is less than the risk. I hope that going forward the majority of the capital remains in cash, and that investing only a small amount is enough to mollify investor greed.

Heh, his is nicer than mine as well - though it seems to have a rather higher next difficulty than is likely.  I'm also not sure the arbitrage calculation is taking into account losing 0.2% to transaction fees on every buy of PURCHASE and sale of MINING.