Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 83. (Read 198958 times)

Voted NO: JUST-DICE (The vote evened after my cast.)
Reason behind it: the site is new and has no history of being secure. The possibility of 25% of capital being invested in such an activity is way, way too much. I would vote otherwise if it was, say, 5-10%.

I understand there are few safe investment opportunities with Bitcoin now, but 25% into one business is just something I cannot agree with.

Just-Dice doesn't work like S.DICE.

Gamblers send cash once then use it from a balance - so there's only transactions when they deposit or withdraw, not for each bet.

Coinlenders all the way. Voted no on dice.

I think that just-dice is not spamming the blockchain. They use deposit/withdraw system, the bets are not in blockchain themselves. See: https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=238613 for more info.

Voted NO: JUST-DICE
Reason behind it: just another DDoS attack against bitcoin like SatoshiDice

Coinlenders: YES

just-dice is a really brililiant idea, but now it has a few uptime problems (down now, and was down yesterday too for several hours).
I'd wait until these are fixed and doesn't crash for a sensible amount of time.

INVESTMENTS

Sorry I've been so slow getting this sorted.

First let me clarify the criteria I use when determining which potential investments even get as far as a vote.  To be voted on an investment has to, in my view, meet ALL of the following criteria:

1.  Be denominated in BTC.
2.  Have no significant exposure to any currency (fiat OR crypto) other than BTC.
3.  Have a defined face value and allow redemption at that value (a reasonable admin fee is fine)
4.  Have little chance of any significant loss of capital/reduction of face value.
5.  Have an issuer with no significant blemishes on their record in terms of returning investment and honouring contracts promptly.  The promptly part is critical - we can't have a scenario where someone suddenly take an extra 6 months to repay because of problems.
6.  Give an ROI of at least 10% per year.
7.  They must be backed by assets capable of redeeming the investments.  Where such assets are non-BTC-denominated then they must significantly exceed the BTC-denominated investments accepted.

At present I'm proposing TWO investments for vote.  Votes for both will be put up shortly after I post this.  I will hold my own vote back until near the end - and then vote for whichever side is winning (so as to make sure my own vote isn't effectively the casting one).

At present I'll be following a policy of no more than 25% of capital being invested with ANY issuer (including myself).  If and when other suitable investments are approved I'd look to reduce that percentage.  Obviously if there are significant dividends for SELLING then existing investment MAY pass that limit - if so then I'd act to reduce it as soon as practicable (in practice I can predict dividends in advance and act pre-emptively).


PROPOSAL 1 : COINLENDERS

Coinlenders is a BTC-lending site operated by TradeFortress.  We'd be looking at taking 30-day CDs paying an annualised rate of 26% or so.  30 days is short enough that I can predict difficulty well enough not to run into cash-flow issues.  I'd stagger CDs anyway to further reduce such problems.

My view is that this meets all of the above criteria.  The capital is used to issue BTC-denominated loans, the majority of which are secured against provided collateral.


PROPOSAL 2 : JUST-DICE

This is a new - and potentially more controversial - proposal.

Investments in this are acting as the house bank for a dice gambling website.  The very tight BR management (max payout of 1% of bank - dynamically recalculated) makes significant loss of capital highly unlikely.  Cash-flow is no issue - as withdrawals can be made at any time.  The capital invested is ONLY used as the bank - and so is always 100% backed by actual BTC.

At present it's definitely paying well over 10% per year - but that would need to be regularly reviewed if capital deposited there increases significantly and/or betting activity declines.

I view it as a safe investment - with only a slim chance of small capital losses with any such capital loss being such that it would entirely be absorbed by SELLING.  That is important - as only SELLING can vote, so it would be entirely in appropriate to vote on any investment where there was a real chance of losses that could impact cover for MINING.

EDIT: Just to be absolutely clear I would NOT EVER be rolling the dice myself.  I've never played S.DICE and would never play JUST-DICE (I only ever bet on -EV things where it's a social activity).

Both votes will be placed up for just over a day - if there's no quorum obtained in that period then I'll relist the votes for longer and try again.  My hope (and expectation) is that sufficient SELLING investors are active to obtain a quorum in a short time-scale.

Both of these securities support 2FA - which would be used (as is the case on ALL accounts holding any funds managed by me).

You're welcome, I'm glad I could help someone, since it took a bit to figure it out myself

Here's a spreadsheet version : )

Wanted to thank you for this explanation a while ago - very helpful!

Sold   1090
Swapped   0
Total   1090
Price   0.053891
Total   58.74119
Less Fee   58.62370762
Man Fee   1.758711229

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,164.12209001
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,289.12209001
   
Outstanding MINING   24777
Outstanding SELLING   24777
Outstanding PURCHASE   322
Effective Units   25099
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,285.85866319
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05123147
Days Dividend Post Div   394.02
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,285.85866319
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05123147
PURCHASE selling price    0.05379304
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05020684

At the current tracking of 6.7% difficulty increase, DMS.SELLING should receive a dividend of 0.002931 BTC/Share.

Looks like there is a buying opportunity for selling; the price is around .035 and the network hash rate just jumped from 160 TH/s to 200 TH/s today. Even with only 500 blocks left til difficulty change this is going to have a profound effect.

Thanks for everything Deprived, this has been a lot of fun.

Sold   1752
Swapped   0
Total   1752
Price   0.053963
Total   94.543176
Less Fee   94.35408965
Man Fee   2.830622689

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,110.37873254
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,235.37873254
   
Outstanding MINING   23586
Outstanding SELLING   23586
Outstanding PURCHASE   423
Effective Units   24009
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,232.25702990
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05132480
Days Dividend Post Div   394.74
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,232.25702990
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05132480
PURCHASE selling price    0.05389104
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05029830

MINING is still cheaper than other PMBs and while the USB Block Erupter is now priced more competitively, those prices are only for large orders and it will take some time before the price drop spills over to the retail market (and there will still be a premium from resellers).

Additionally, there may be speculators who are betting on a further price drop of SELLING if the upcoming dividend is small and plan on selling on the correlated price jump of MINING. Who knows?

Little higher imho, about 0.015 if you don't consider sidecosts of the USB miner (shipping, power...)

I'd never thought the overpriced AM hardware could sometime be cheaper than the mining bonds.

Interesting fact: The dips in hashrate this week are not at least partly caused by AM itself (maintenance). And with difficulty increasing only about 5% next time, the price for the USB miners is a good one right now...

Difficulty estimates aren't very high since there have been large dips in network hashrate. This has a negative effect on the expected dividend (and thus the price) of SELLING and that means a boost for MINING, since their prices are linked.

Wow whats going on with Mining? I guess I should have held it a bit longer 

With the new USB Miners a good price for the mining should be around 0.013 for 5 Mhs...

Hard to say as network hashpower has been very inconsistent recently.

Looks at moment like only about a 5% rise which would mean SELLING dividend was very small if any at all.  But that could easily change iif hashpower went back up for the rest of the period before change.

Sold   921
Swapped   0
Total   921
Price   0.054062
Total   49.791102
Less Fee   49.6915198
Man Fee   1.490745594

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,021.74489794
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,146.74489794
   
Outstanding MINING   21854
Outstanding SELLING   21854
Outstanding PURCHASE   403
Effective Units   22257
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,143.85099417
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05139286
Days Dividend Post Div   395.26
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,143.85099417
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05139286
PURCHASE selling price    0.05396251
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05036501