Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) - page 82. (Read 198958 times)

Dang, I had just made one! Yours is nicer though, thanks! 

Sold   1425
Swapped   0
Total   1425
Price   0.053794
Total   76.65645
Less Fee   76.5031371
Man Fee   2.295094113

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,235.06725040
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,360.06725040
   
Outstanding MINING   26183
Outstanding SELLING   26183
Outstanding PURCHASE   341
Effective Units   26524
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,356.61854196
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05114683
Days Dividend Post Div   393.37
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,356.61854196
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05114683
PURCHASE selling price    0.05370417
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05012389

Well I tried to ensure the contract was such that there was no conflict of interest between me in my role as manager and me in my role as an investor.

My Management fee isn't impacted by whether we invest or not (or which investments we do/don't use) - so my basis for assessing investments SHOULD be the same as everyone else's.  The only tiny bias I have is that it hurts me far more than investors if we invest and make a loss - as then the whole of DMS could become very unattractive.  But with it designed as it is, erring on the side of being cautious isn't in my view a bad thing.

Great, I guess that's what I wanted to hear. (You possess a surprising skill to achieve just that; every single time)

LTC-ATF.B1 as close as possible to 25%, Coinlenders maximum 20% and Just-Dice maximum 10% sounds reasonable.

I have recast my votes in favour of the motions.

Keep up the brilliant job.))

Since the hash rate is not measured directly, it is not possible to know if the changing value is the result of more/less hashing power or more/less luck.

A change in the hash rate can change predictions of future difficulty, so it can affect the price of MINING and SELLING because their prices depend on the predicted difficulty,  

Only actual difficulty adjustments can have an effect, so yes if that hashrate spike will cause the difficulty to increase slightly more, if there is a dividend it will be slightly higher.

A lot of the time big spikes and dips don't actuallly reflect a change in Hashrate at all - but rather a change in network luck.

All the figures we see for Hashrate are only a guess based on how long it's been taking to solve blocks.  A period of high luck looks like a surge in Hashpower and a period of bad luck like a drop in Hashpower.

Don't expect every change to have an associated actual change in deployed hardware.

In the night of the 25th to 26th  of June  there was a increase of the Hashrate  by 60 TH. Now its back to the normal level.

Did anybody notice that?

Is Asicminer testing their new Mining Hardware?

Does it have an effect on the SELLING  Share price?

To DeprivedMining.

If you sent to Deprived by mistake let me know and I can fix it (that's the account I used there for LTC-ATF).

Sorry if this already answered but to exchange DMS.PURCHASE to selling and mining i just send them to Deprived on BTC-TC?

In practice any losses from investment will also all go to SELLING.

The market prices of MINING and SELLING reflect the market's belief of how the two are entitled to capital.

Present prices of (using round figures) .021 Mining, .033 Selling indicate that the market believes that about 61% of all capital will end up going to SELLING.  If the market is correct then we'd have to lose over 61% of capital before the losses would pass on to MINING.  That's impossible with current and proposed investments so unless the market is significantly wrong there's no way any losses could be passed on to MINING (though capital cover in terms of number of days COULD drop - but the market suggests any such drop would be replaced when difficulty rose).

That's why only SELLING gets to vote - as they're the ones who will get the profit and stand to lose from any loss.

In simple terms all profit from investments gos to SELLING so long as SELLING is actually receiving dividends.

The only time it gos to MINING is if SELLING never receives another dividend - but SELLING should have voted to close the fund before that happens (once it becomes obvvious difficulty has stopped rising).

Rannasha has already posted an explanation, but if you're confused here's another. If they do good, SELLING gets more capital. SELLING pays the capital above a limit determined by the difficulty as dividends. As selling will have more capital, dividends will increase.

The capital of the fund is used to pay MINING regular daily dividends, according to the 5 MHash/s per share it is equivalent to. The fund aims to keep enough capital to pay for 400 days of MINING dividends at the current difficulty. If the capital exceeds 410 days of MINING dividends, SELLING is paid dividends to reduce capital back down to 400 days.

This doesn't change when the capital is invested into something. Right now, it is invested partially in LTC.ATF.1 bonds, which give a constant weekly coupon. The income from this is simply added to the total capital used in the calculations.

How strongly the return on investments affects the SELLING dividends, depends strongly on how much capital there is in the fund and how much the difficulty changes. Suppose there is for 390 days of MINING dividend left and a 5% profit is obtained from investments. This boosts the capital to 409.5 days of MINING dividend. If a difficulty change follows that where the difficulty remains constant or goes down, SELLING gets nothing.

On the other hand, if there are 390 days of MINING dividend left, a 5% profit is obtained and the difficulty is increased by 20%, the capital increases to 491.4 dividend days, so 91.4 dividend days worth of capital is paid out to SELLING (almost 20% of the full capital). Without the investment, this payout would be only 68 days of MINING dividend.

Under the right circumstances, even small investment returns can leverage into great profits for SELLING. On the other hand, these returns may also fall below the payout threshold and SELLING doesn't see any of it. Once again, it depends on the difficulty. One thing is for sure, MINING dividends remain unchanged, regardless of how much is made from investments.

With regards to the investments, if they do bad, SELLING gets lower dividends. If they do good then, does SELLING get higher dividends?

This asset was already confusing enough. Please provide some example maths to show how these investments effect dividends.

Further to the above post let me explain how you can easily tell it's over 10% ROI per year.

At present the site's been going under a week but volume of bets is larger than invested capital.  That means, without doing any math, that you know ROI for investment is over 1% per week and so over 52% per year (ignoring compounding).

That figure will likely drop (a lot) - but right now the ROI is plainly very large without any need to do any math at all beyond noticing that volume of bets exceeds invested capital.

Look at the volume of bets.  Multiply that by 1% (house edge).  That gives the EXPECTED profit (which is what we have to work with).  Now divide that by the time-period in which it occurred - to give a profit/day.  Then divide it by the total capital invested there to give an ROI.  I haven't bothered doing the exact calculation as I can tell at a glance that at present it's well over 10% per year (I'm pretty good at that sort of calculation).

If you do the above calculation on current stats that bear in mind not all capital was even in there most of the time - so the real ROI is far higher than what you get.  If the motion is approved then I'd be doing more rigorous calculations and keeping records so as to be able to watch trends and work out what expected ROI was for specific growth in capital there etc.  I would NOT be posting those - as it generally isn't in my interest to provide detailed analysis for free to everyone on the forum.

EDIT: you actually need to multiply expected profit by 0.99 (to account for dooglus' own 1%) but that obviously has a trivial impact.

Can you please explain how do you calculate the ROI per year of just-dice?

Having considered my response above (and the post to which I replied) let me clarify the following:

No more than 20% of capital will be invested into Coinlenders without a new vote.
No more than 10% of capital will be invested into Just-Dice without a new vote.

All future proposals will have a stated maximum percentage which will require a new motion to be increased.

Where such maximums become exceeded due to unexpectedly large dividend payouts they will be promptly reduced back to within the approved maximums.

I wouldn't initially be investing 25% into it - or into anything (other than my own bonds which have no significant CP risk that doesn't already exist and it's not possible or likely to be possible in the future for me to get 25% into my bonds anyway).  The 25% is a maximum not a target.

If the motions are approved then at present I'd be looking initially to put :

200 BTC into Coinlenders (the lowest amount to get the highest rate for a 30-day CD) - with the plan to do a second similar one in 2 weeks time if capital has grown sufficiently to support it.
100 BTC into Just-Dice - with the intention to review that weekly and increase/decrease it based on the return it generates, available capital and any other information that comes to light.