Another factor to consider is depreciation / resale value. You can mine with a GPU for 6 months and then sell it for nearly what you paid on eBay. FPGAs have much less of a secondary market.
Still, my money is on FPGAs having a better long term ROI, as they will be profitable operationally, as long as the difficulty factor is defined by GPUs.
-rph
Let's consider that we are keeping our rigs for the long haul and Not reselling the GPU (which is a great point btw). Say we are building these machines to not only mine Btc but any and all bitcoin forks and folding operations as need be.
I build two identical machines except in one I have a high end GPU and the latest FPGA (lets say X10 in order to hash the same amount per second.)
If I'm understanding this right, the GPU looses its worth because of the energy it takes to make a Btc becomes higher then the profit from the usd conversion (at current prices) due to increasing difficulty and decreasing reward (50 to 25 etc).
For my inquiry lets pretend I have a Time Dollar system set up and use a crypto currency like BitCoin to keep track of who has what. The BTD (bit time dollar if you will) always has a constant worth of one man hour and the difficulty will remain the same throughout the life time of the project (although the reward significantly lower.)
Keeping in mind this project is for closed communities and although there is still an incentive to Mine coins the major incentive is to be part of the project and not necessarily become resource rich off the process because they have no $ worth (maybe but not for the scope of this project)
This rig is to be built as the main / first mining server pool until the others get involved so having better then everyone else is not the goal.
So my question in this case would be how long until my FPGA machine becomes more cost efficient then the GPU Rig. I can totally see the possibilities in cost efficiency if setting up home miners with just one card for the casual participant But when setting up the "backbone" which would be the better investment for the community.
Thanks for all your input.