[BTCT.CO] [IPO-cancelled] BTCGARDEN MINER---Eyes to the horizon - page 15.

Ytterbium

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Quote from: superduh on August 06, 2013, 02:34:52 PM

command of chinese language seems more important than anything else at the moment -

谷歌翻译是你的朋友，朋友。无论如何，LABCOIN将拥有BTCGARDEN的归根到底

Quote from: User705 on August 07, 2013, 06:56:01 PM

Quote from: dhenson on August 05, 2013, 02:18:13 AM

After all, any one company can only control ~35%-~40% or it becomes self defeating.

Thoughts?

It only becomes self defeating if the community knows about it. Otherwise a single company could mine 99% and as long as they don't double spend you'd be none the wiser.

No, the problem is as you increase your percentage, you decrease the amount of profit you make, because you cause more and more of the difficulty. If you own 99% of the network, then you cause 99% of the difficulty. Adding more capacity would mostly only increase the difficulty without increasing your profits at all.

User705

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First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold

Quote from: dhenson on August 05, 2013, 02:18:13 AM

Let's assume for a second that the VC investment in Avalon is true.

Wouldn't that mean that BTCGARDEN is worth more, not less? The panic selling only makes sense if the company isn't well positioned. Of the companies competing in this space, Asicminer has the best shot at competing due to their current market position/experience and capital. They however are already highly valued and investment in them at the current time has a limited upside.

BTCGARDEN I believe are next in line of those companies able to realistically compete in a meaningful way. Now that they've raised the 3 million from the IPO, there really isn't anything in their way in delivering on their plan. The upside for us of course is that there is a huge potential upside from the current value.

After all, any one company can only control ~35%-~40% or it becomes self defeating.

Thoughts?

It only becomes self defeating if the community knows about it. Otherwise a single company could mine 99% and as long as they don't double spend you'd be none the wiser.

yuansuyi

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in China,in the small city where I lived, tiny family factory normally has 100-200kw power transformer.

why do you think btcgarden cant aford 1000kw？

and power is half price in night.

KCBitcoin

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Quote from: aiwill on July 30, 2013, 05:41:53 AM

We will deploy our rooms in 3 cities (Beijing,Xi An,ShenZhen) in the meantime

As they said their deployment will be in 3 separate cities. Therefore, the power-supply problem is reduced by 66.7% comparing to deployment within one city.

Edit: They also mentioned in their next steps to be taken as follows,

Quote from: aiwill on July 30, 2013, 05:41:53 AM

a) we will DIY-deploy our first batch of 200T at Shenzhen/beijing/Xian/Suzhou simultaneously once the chips finished.

If the latter is the case, i.e. 4 cities are planned for deployment, their power-supply problem will be reduced by 75%.

Vbs

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Quote from: dexX7 on August 07, 2013, 09:59:43 AM

To add some more details: the first batch contains 312 wafers * 2000 chips/wafer * 400 MH/s/chip = 249 TH/s. And according to the first post this batch should arrive mid september and the other batch will be ordered immediately after they receive/test the first batch. If this is all correct, a total of roughly 850 TH/s should be covered by the IPO.

Thanks for the info. OK, so realistically, 312 wafers * 2000 chips/wafer * 400 MH/s/chip * ~90% yield = 225 TH/s @ 843,750W. Using a 90% efficient power-supply, 937.5kW. Are there plans for an industrial-grade Power Substation? Can they guarantee the delivery of 1MW? (1MW is enough for an average of 400-900 US households). In reality, I'm expecting them to sell most of it, since the electrical overhead is just too much.

At 225TH/[email protected], the profit margins will be very different if they start in September (~250%) than in October (~90.9%) or November (~1.29%).

Forget about the power infrastructure required to run 850TH/s on those 130nm chips, most will have to be sold.

dexX7

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Vbs...

Quote from: aiwill on August 03, 2013, 09:11:25 AM

* We use this 3 millions dollars IPO funds for :
   Mass production of 1st gen chips to a big amount (exact no. might depends but 500TH as minimum beside the 200TH we have already paid),
   deploying all of them.
   the research and Tapeout (samples with fulll mask) 2nd gen chips (40nm most likely).

This process might last,as you said, several months.

* the Mass production of our 2nd gen chips might be a possible reason to launch our 2nd batch of shares.

To add some more details: the first batch contains 312 wafers * 2000 chips/wafer * 400 MH/s/chip = 249 TH/s. And according to the first post this batch should arrive mid september and the other batch will be ordered immediately after they receive/test the first batch. If this is all correct, a total of roughly 850 TH/s should be covered by the IPO.

richard_dein

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Quote from: Vbs on August 07, 2013, 08:17:58 AM

That chart is with a full bias towards them, on a best case scenario where they have 350TH mining in December from just the initial 2M sold shares, the chips turn out as good as expected and there is no more mining competition than what's been already increasing the past months, from the current hardware suppliers.

You can simulate easily other scenarios: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

Quote

Until forever? It's only going up from those 75%. Those are only based on the hashrate added on the last 30 days.

It's far, far from "full bias towards" BTCGarden. I have doubts in their operations, but you aren't giving the right amount of optimism to say that.

1. 30 days is quite an arbitrary time period.

If you take March 2013 - August 2013, the difficulty increased by a factor of 10, which averages to ~58% per month, in which case there's a >30% profit in the first year.

2. An increase in BTC price could increase profit dramatically

This is true when we assume our difficulty projections are accurate. They then have a higher profit margin, and that increase is always more than the effect of the growth of BTC itself.
Say originally $100 earns BTC1. That's about a 5% profit margin by the current Mt.Gox price. But BTC is then raised by 100% to $210; the profit margin becomes 110%, which is actually nearly 22-fold.
For a stock that is valued by its profits, this factor shouldn't be overlooked.

Vbs

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Quote from: PeterB on August 07, 2013, 08:50:46 AM

I think we all really appreciate your analysis and tough questions Vbs, but to be fair they are aiming to start mining in September.

Quote from: aiwill on July 30, 2013, 05:41:53 AM

All of the mining and sales profits will be paid out to the shareholders of BTCGARDEN weekly through btct.co. At the earliest,we will be start from the middle of September,2013, while our first batch of chips(200-300T) will be arrive and start to be deployed.As time is precious in current stage of the business, we have already paid for this first big-amount batch ,all shareholders can therefore expect a quicker & higher return than normal.

That's why I've asked for their projections, because there's different TH values everywhere and precise values and times make or break this deal (and chip specs too).

Quote from: aiwill on July 30, 2013, 05:41:53 AM

A project of ASIC bitcoin mining is ongoing by our group, named btc-garden (www.btcgarden.com). At the moment, we are at the stage of TAPE OUT.

We have started our project since Feb.2013.Also, according to our timetable, we will have around 100T hashrate online on this August or September as our best situation. The following paragraphs are written to give out a brief introduction of this item. A relative detailed version will be posted on this board & our website at the beginning of June, 2013. Any questions or advices are welcomed in this thread.

So, effectively, what is the size of the first batch? Huh

PeterB

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I think we all really appreciate your analysis and tough questions Vbs, but to be fair they are aiming to start mining in September.

Quote from: aiwill on July 30, 2013, 05:41:53 AM

All of the mining and sales profits will be paid out to the shareholders of BTCGARDEN weekly through btct.co. At the earliest,we will be start from the middle of September,2013, while our first batch of chips(200-300T) will be arrive and start to be deployed.As time is precious in current stage of the business, we have already paid for this first big-amount batch ,all shareholders can therefore expect a quicker & higher return than normal.

Vbs

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Quote from: redbeans2012 on August 07, 2013, 07:58:07 AM

To be fair they claim to be starting to put thei stuff online by September am I correct? That chart a little misleading.

That chart is with a full bias towards them, on a best case scenario where they have 350TH mining in December from just the initial 2M sold shares, the chips turn out as good as expected and there is no more mining competition than what's been already increasing the past months, from the current hardware suppliers.

You can simulate easily other scenarios: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

Quote from: JimiQ84 on August 07, 2013, 08:09:13 AM

Also, 75% monthly difficulty rise until forever?

Until forever? It's only going up from those 75%. Those are only based on the hashrate added on the last 30 days.

Quote from: kokojie on August 07, 2013, 08:17:18 AM

Yeah because that's sustainable, even though we will run out of all earth's resources by year 5 or so, we'll just have to start mining on Mars.

There's 11 years of ASIC development to catch up. 130nm is from 2002. Difficulty will start slowing down when the technical level approaches current die sizes.

kokojie

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Quote from: JimiQ84 on August 07, 2013, 08:09:13 AM

Quote from: redbeans2012 on August 07, 2013, 07:58:07 AM

To be fair they claim to be starting to put thei stuff online by September am I correct? That chart a little misleading.

Also, 75% monthly difficulty rise until forever?

Yeah because that's sustainable, even though we will run out of all earth's resources by year 5 or so, we'll just have to start mining on Mars.

JimiQ84

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Quote from: redbeans2012 on August 07, 2013, 07:58:07 AM

To be fair they claim to be starting to put thei stuff online by September am I correct? That chart a little misleading.

Also, 75% monthly difficulty rise until forever?

redbeans2012

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Quote from: Vbs on August 07, 2013, 06:52:24 AM

Some questions:

1) Can you give more detailed information regarding how you simulated chip power consumption? You are stating a very efficient 3.75W/GH/s for a 130nm node, while Avalon chips on a 110nm node (more efficient) are getting at best 6.6W/GH/s.

2) You are estimating deployment of 350TH by the end of 2013, and even with 3.75W/GH/s, that's a power consumtion of 1,312.5 kWh. How are you going to manage a 1.3 MWh facility?

3) Can you provide a better explanation of your profit projections? Let's say all goes well and you have 350TH mining in the 1st of December 2013. Let's also assume you have incredible logistics and get the 350TH just from the current 2M shares @ BTC0.016. You'll have around ~5 months of profit before the huge energy bill starts eating the revenue and making the profit negative (~May 2014). Unfortunately, the cumulative return is also bound to never return those initial BTC32,000.

Data: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

To be fair they claim to be starting to put thei stuff online by September am I correct? That chart a little misleading.

ronaldlee0917

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Quote from: lysr on August 07, 2013, 07:03:04 AM

What worries me the most is the lack of testing before mass production, they skip an entire phase in IC development life cycle.
It may either be an overconfidence or a gamble. I am not a hardware expert and I don't know how simple the design of a SHA256 chip could be, but without testing...really? Even simple HelloWorld programs could go wrong without testing... Does the time saved justify the much elevated risk?
It would be wise to sideline and wait for the result of their test run before buying, they have yet to provide any evidence of their chips working, the enormous risk taken now is more like a gamble than an investment.

The risk is already explained here:

Quote

1. There are still several risky factors which might lead to a failure of this project such as:
the failure of our chips;
the failure of first batch`s Tapeout ;
the illness or other severe health or life problems of issuers;

Investors of BtcGarden should be already aware of this and are willing to take this.

zy02264

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Quote from: Vbs on August 07, 2013, 06:52:24 AM

Some questions:

1) Can you give more detailed information regarding how you simulated chip power consumption? You are stating a very efficient 3.75W/GH/s for a 130nm node, while Avalon chips on a 110nm node (more efficient) are getting at best 6.6W/GH/s.

2) You are estimating deployment of 350TH by the end of 2013, and even with 3.75W/GH/s, that's a power consumtion of 1,312.5 kWh. How are you going to manage a 1.3 MWh facility?

3) Can you provide a better explanation of your profit projections? Let's say all goes well and you have 350TH mining in the 1st of December 2013. Let's also assume you have incredible logistics and get the 350TH just from the current 2M shares @ BTC0.016. You'll have around ~5 months of profit before the huge energy bill starts eating the revenue and making the profit negative (~May 2014). Unfortunately, the cumulative return is also bound to never return those initial BTC32,000.

Data: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

Come on, you know how these ASIC companies work: if they say "the end of 2013", that could be Dec 31st or even later, but definitely not Dec 1st

lysr

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What worries me the most is the lack of testing before mass production, they skip an entire phase in IC development life cycle.
It may either be an overconfidence or a gamble. I am not a hardware expert and I don't know how simple the design of a SHA256 chip could be, but without testing...really? Even simple HelloWorld programs could go wrong without testing... Does the time saved justify the much elevated risk?
It would be wise to sideline and wait for the result of their test run before buying, they have yet to provide any evidence of their chips working, the enormous risk taken now is more like a gamble than an investment.

Vbs

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Some questions:

1) Can you give more detailed information regarding how you simulated chip power consumption? You are stating a very efficient 3.75W/GH/s for a 130nm node, while Avalon chips on a 110nm node (more efficient) are getting at best 6.6W/GH/s.

2) You are estimating deployment of 350TH by the end of 2013, and even with 3.75W/GH/s, that's a power consumtion of 1,312.5 kWh. How are you going to manage a 1.3 MWh facility?

3) Can you provide a better explanation of your profit projections? Let's say all goes well and you have 350TH mining in the 1st of December 2013. Let's also assume you have incredible logistics and get the 350TH just from the current 2M shares @ BTC0.016. You'll have around ~5 months of profit before the huge energy bill starts eating the revenue and making the profit negative (~May 2014). Unfortunately, the cumulative return is also bound to never return those initial BTC32,000.

Data: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

alexius89

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