Topic: btt - page 36. (Read 407326 times)

Hi, creativex!
I think, the main question that is interesting for everybody is what equipment are you going to by in the future. So what and when?
Perhaps, the situation with share price decreasing is the result of lack of information.

1) I've worked toward bulk pricing/preferential treatment with vendors in the past and will do so in the future.
2) We do not have any pre-orders with anyone at this time. Pre-orders have been fairly toxic for mining companies. I'm keeping abreast of knc's progress, but with so many vendors looking to ship in Q4 I can't say who's gear we'll end up with at this point. As bitfury's chips are substantially more efficient than knc's, all else being equal then we'd surely be better off with bitfury gear as it should remain profitable longer.

Hi guitarplinker. The thing is it's not a question of resources at this time. We're sitting on over 775BTC precisely 776.5493 in reserves right now. This is enough to obtain nearly 14Th/s in pre-ordered gear from cointerra for December delivery or 4.8Th/s from bitfury for October delivery at current exchange rates(bitstamp). The problem is the same as it's been since spring/summer of 2012, and that is that locking in our funds for unproven vaporware with lead times measured in months(or years) is unwise. It's even worse than it appears because we'd also be locking in an exchange rate. An exchange rate which btw is rapidly climbing in our favor. We also cannot run out and load up on currently available hardware that's soon to be obsolete because we may or may not ever see a return on that investment. A couple such mistakes could cripple us going forward. It's my belief that when things are moving so quickly that the future is nearly impossible to predict with any level of confidence then the correct play is to shorten your scope substantially. That is, reduce risk by sticking to decisions with outcomes that can be predicted with some measure of confidence.

Hi weezerfan. I'd very much like to simply calculate how many avalons we'd need to add on to keep up with difficulty each re-target and go out and source them, but that won't work as we'd eventually go broke. Safeguarding shareholder value is much more than just maintaining a consistent dividend payout. I have to run each and every purchase candidate through my own common sense detector to determine if we're likely to at the very least get our money back out of this gear before I have to unplug it to stop losses from expenses. We're at a crossroad here where those on the cutting edge are transitioning to 2nd gen ASIC equipment and just like the previous major equipment shifts(CPU --> GPU --> FPGA --> ASIC) there's a lot to gain or lose. I believe we have to keep sufficient powder dry so that we can make significant purchases of gen2 gear when it's actually available.

What FMG points out in the post following yours is accurate, but, if we play it smart we don't have to be victimized by the laws of big numbers. Sure while it would take 17 avalons to double our hashrate now, a single cointerra unit would more than double our hashrate in Dec or January. We just have to not shoot ourselves in the foot before we can get there. In between I see potential in bitfury's products for October delivery and possibly knc's products for November delivery to possibly tide us over.

Also I think it's important to keep in mind that while the law of big numbers applies to our hashrate, so too it applies to everyone else's and the global network itself. It's not hard to believe the global network can expand by 3%/day for a few quarters after new technology revolutionizes mining, but the amount of capital required to sustain that growth long term eventually makes it unsustainable unless the exchange rate grows along with it, which in turn would make older less efficient gear profitable longer.

Thank you FloatesMcG, kind of you to say. It saddens me somewhat to have to disagree with you after such a nice lead-in. While obviously nobody can keep up with difficulty increases step for step right now(not even FC), nor should they beat themselves to death trying, we all know this kind of expansion cannot go on forever. It will go on until the market is saturated, pre-order queues dry up, and mining margins thin significantly. If you take the pulse of the forum just now it's easy to see attitudes changing from "ASIC ANYTHING = TAKE MY MONEY NOW!" to "2Th/s for $16k? pffft...overpriced". Remarkably that vendor quickly lowered their pricetag in response. For now I'm just holding on and trying to make decisions that ensure we at least break even on every purchase.

It was never my intent to build a company based on scavenging gear, it's just my mechanism for adapting to the current market forces. There just isn't a reliable supplier of in hand original equipment that's priced in such a way that there's still enough meat on the bone to justify the risks. This will change in the near future IMO, and the people with dry powder will benefit. Love what's going on over at bitfury for instance.

When I speak of efficiency, I'm referring to power consumption. BFL's 65nm based products are somewhere between 50-60% more efficient than ASICMiner's current 130nm offerings. While this hasn't mattered much in the past as operating costs are currently negligible, this will change as operating margins for miners continues to contract. Eventually all but the most efficient ASIC gear will be forced offline as they'll cost more in electricity than they're generating in revenue. Bitfury's 55nm gear shipping is significant in that it's the first gear to take the efficiency lead away from BFL.

As you said, the auction that you linked is for Oct/Nov delivery. Dave at bitfury has suggested that bitfury chip orders would ship early in October and finished products would likely ship toward the end of October. This is one more link in the chain we'd have to rely on and the potential savings we'd get by going with Barntech's auction over a direct pre-order purchase at megabigpower would seem to offer  a poor risk/reward profile.

Hi, creativex!
I think, the main question that is interesting for everybody is what equipment are you going to by in the future. So what and when?
Perhaps, the situation with share price decreasing is the result of lack of information.

Hi, where can I found share prices history for the very beginning?

No it wouldn't piss me off to the degree you seem to be, although certainly I'd be annoyed for a day or so. I myself had all my coins present and accounted for days before trading opened on labcoin. I ended up bidding higher than .001, so when the dust had settled, I got less than I could have had at .001. Then, because I wouldn't have bought it in the first place if I thought it wasn't a good investment, I continued buying shares as quickly as I could. It took around 25 minutes because of the problems that everyone was facing that day using the site.

End result was that I got far less shares than I wanted, and paid an average price of .001655 for them.

Would that piss you off? (I can take a guess, lol) I was a little annoyed, but what can ya do huh?

I sincerely apologize for randomly attacking you, and the ridiculous delay on the reply.

ETA: Still no answer so let me ask again. If you try to get in on an ipo with quite some money. You are perfectly in time but because of a "glitch" (still not convinced it wasn't done on purpose) your coins don't arrive. Instead of a sorry and let me see what we can do for you they say "sucks to be you".
Would that piss you off?

Hi, where can I found share prices history for the very beginning?

You're right. I thought this was the ShroomsKit's Poor Decisions thread. Back to Basic Mining then.

?

Absolutely not relevant.

Well I don't know what exactly you experienced, but ytterbium seemed to be suggesting that after you missed the IPO price, you chose not to buy in afterwards during the copious opportunities at .0016ish. Is that correct?

I was pissed because they screwed me over. What does that have to do with trading decisions?
And once again don't act like you wouldn't be pissed. Don't be an hypocrite.

You'll have more success if you leave emotions out of your trading decisions.

Oh god this shit again. Yes i was pissed off because i sent my coins to buy the ipo and because of a glitch on their end they didn't receive it. Instead of saying sorry and we'll see what we can do to work something out they basically told me to piss off.
Don't act as if you wouldn't be pissed off in a situation like that please. 

Lol, says the guy who wanted to flip labcoin and then bitched because he couldn't get IPO shares.  Could have got some at 0.0016 and more then doubled your money by now.


Not if it goes to zero.   Sell everything and buy LABCOIN.


Buying ASICs retail is a suckers bet at this point, absolutely.   Take half your reserves and buy LABCOIN shares.

And anyway, typically if a company doesn't know what to do with money it should return it to investors as a dividend.