^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
the cumulative bet amounts do in fact influence the outcome because they will crash the game if they reach a certain limit.
so the chosen outcome is not set in stone ...
what am i missing?
Topic: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game - page 141. (Read 293938 times)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
the cumulative bet amounts do in fact influence the outcome because they will crash the game if they reach a certain limit.
so the chosen outcome is not set in stone ...
what am i missing?
Dooglus, can you check if the game is rigged? 
The game used to be hosted on heroku, which only lets you change things by uploading a whole new version, and each upload gets logged, along with its git sha identifier which means it's possible to know what code is running and to be sure that it hasn't been tampered with.
When that was the case, I checked the code out, and it was identical to what is available in the github repository.
The 'crash point' generation code is pretty simple, random, and not based on anything to do with how much people bet (other than that games end early with a forced payout to stop the house losing more than 2 BTC in any single game).
Someone reported Eric to heroku, saying his site was in violation of their T&C, and it was removed. He has since moved to a different host, and I no longer have access to verify what code is running.
tl;dr: no, but I could in the past and it looked good then
Dooglus, can you check if the game is rigged?
dooglus is linked with them why would he bash his own investment? lmfao
Dooglus, can you check if the game is rigged?
Eric, the site's down 
The web server is online but the game server isn't
Code:
Failed connect to game.moneypot.com:443; Connection refused
The host is up though. It's 4:25am in GDL, so I guess you have to be patient some more.
As always, nice work Doog.
I agree, I'lll change it to be zero sum for the house (instant crash in 1 in 101 games, as opposed to 1 in 100) and we can really simplify the calculator and calculations.
I'm not convinced it's right, because it's not clear how to say that part of the bonus pool you expect to get if you win or lose. I think I would prefer to see the calculator ignore the bonus completely, since it's almost a zero sum game.
I agree, I'lll change it to be zero sum for the house (instant crash in 1 in 101 games, as opposed to 1 in 100) and we can really simplify the calculator and calculations.
The calculator is a bit inconsistent. It doesn't take the bonus into account for 'Profit if win', but it does for 'House Expected Return' and 'House Margin'. One can be more explicit about the potential bonus for the profit. I don't know what a good story for the house numbers are except for assuming 1% bonus, because that's what it basically is from the house's point of view.
Yea thanks Doog!
It's definitely not very intuitive for such a simple game looking at the equations. I took a for 25k bet amount @ 1.21x after seeing the example calculations and factoring out the bonus. Let me know if you concur Eric/Doog.
b = player bet
m = player multiplier
probCrashing = 0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01))
It's definitely not very intuitive for such a simple game looking at the equations. I took a for 25k bet amount @ 1.21x after seeing the example calculations and factoring out the bonus. Let me know if you concur Eric/Doog.
b = player bet
m = player multiplier
probCrashing = 0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01))
Your crash probability is slightly off. It should be 0.01 + 0.99 * (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)) or more explicitly p + (1-p) * (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)) where p is the instant crash probability.
winProb = 1 - probCrashing = 1 - (0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))
expRet = expHouseWinAmount - expHouseLossAmount = (b*((1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))) - (b*(m-1)*(1/m))
expRet = expHouseWinAmount - expHouseLossAmount = (b*((1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))) - (b*(m-1)*(1/m))
Has to be adjusted with the correct crash probabilit, but then it's fine. But note that the expRet doesn't take bonus into account.
Eric, the site's down
https://www.moneypot.com home page is loading OK however https://www.moneypot.com/play just displays Connecting to server... Anyone else having the same issue?
I've tried from Chrome & Safari and from two different computers.
I've tried from Chrome & Safari and from two different computers.
Same here. Game froze but chat window was still active. I tried to refresh and got the same error.
https://www.moneypot.com home page is loading OK however https://www.moneypot.com/play just displays Connecting to server... Anyone else having the same issue?
I've tried from Chrome & Safari and from two different computers.
I've tried from Chrome & Safari and from two different computers.
If I was to auto-bet and stop at 1.01, and the game crashed at 1.01, then do I get paid the amount back or is it accounted as a loss?
to many 1.0 then crashed .. lol
always lost my kite =P
always lost my kite =P
can i have some to try?
iD: banklunjo
iD: banklunjo
After you register your account, you can claim 2 bits (200 satoshi) every hour on https://www.moneypot.com/request
As always, nice work Doog.
I agree, I'lll change it to be zero sum for the house (instant crash in 1 in 101 games, as opposed to 1 in 100) and we can really simplify the calculator and calculations.
I'm not convinced it's right, because it's not clear how to say that part of the bonus pool you expect to get if you win or lose. I think I would prefer to see the calculator ignore the bonus completely, since it's almost a zero sum game.
I agree, I'lll change it to be zero sum for the house (instant crash in 1 in 101 games, as opposed to 1 in 100) and we can really simplify the calculator and calculations.
Yea thanks Doog!
It's definitely not very intuitive for such a simple game looking at the equations. I took a crack for 25k bet amount @ 1.21x after seeing the example calculations and factoring out the bonus. Let me know if you concur Eric/Doog.
b = player bet
m = player multiplier
probCrashing = 0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01))
winProb = 1 - probCrashing = 1 - (0.01 + (1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))
expRet = expHouseWinAmount - expHouseLossAmount = (b*((1 - 0.99/(m-0.01)))) - (b*(m-1)*(1/m))
winProb = 0.815
expRet = 36.157
As always, nice work Doog.
I agree, I'lll change it to be zero sum for the house (instant crash in 1 in 101 games, as opposed to 1 in 100) and we can really simplify the calculator and calculations.
I'm not convinced it's right, because it's not clear how to say that part of the bonus pool you expect to get if you win or lose. I think I would prefer to see the calculator ignore the bonus completely, since it's almost a zero sum game.
I agree, I'lll change it to be zero sum for the house (instant crash in 1 in 101 games, as opposed to 1 in 100) and we can really simplify the calculator and calculations.
Also if anyone can do the calculations and show their work I'd be thankful.
Can you use 25,000 wager with 1.21x multiplier, plug it into a formula and show me how the calculator gives the player a 81.675% probability of winning. Also plug it into equations that show House Expected Return of 45.8125 and House Margin of 0.18325%?
Here's how the calculator gets the numbers it displays:
>>> winProb = 0.99 * 0.99 / (1.21-0.01)
>>> winProb
0.81675
>>> expRet = 0.01 * 25000 - winProb * (0.01 * 25000 + 25000 * (1.21 - 1)) + (0.99 - winProb) * 25000*0.99
>>> expRet
45.8125
>>> margin = 100 * expRet / 25000
>>> margin
0.18325
The expected return is found like this:
Code:
houseExpectedReturn: function(amount, cashOut) {
var p1,p2,p3;
var v1,v2,v3;
// Instant crash.
p1 = 0.01;
v1 = amount;
// Player win.
p2 = this.winProb(amount,cashOut);
v2 = - 0.01 * amount - this.profit(amount,cashOut);
// Player loss.
p3 = 1 - p1 - p2;
v3 = 0.99 * amount;
// Expected value.
return p1 * v1 + p2 * v2 + p3 * v3;
}
var p1,p2,p3;
var v1,v2,v3;
// Instant crash.
p1 = 0.01;
v1 = amount;
// Player win.
p2 = this.winProb(amount,cashOut);
v2 = - 0.01 * amount - this.profit(amount,cashOut);
// Player loss.
p3 = 1 - p1 - p2;
v3 = 0.99 * amount;
// Expected value.
return p1 * v1 + p2 * v2 + p3 * v3;
}
I'm not convinced it's right, because it's not clear how to say
99 times out of a hundred the game pays out an extra 1% as bonus prizes, and the other 1 time it keeps all the bets.
Suppose every round had a total of 100 bits bet. 99 rounds in a hundred will pay 1 bit in bonuses, and the other round will keep all 100 bits.
Does anyone know the new webhost being used? Also if anyone can do the calculations and show their work I'd be thankful. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9193154
can i have some to try?
iD: banklunjo
iD: banklunjo
Are you planning for another sig campaign soon?
There is already one sig campaign going on right now. Since the site is going to be auctioned off, I doubt there will be another sig campaign by the current owner.
Are you planning for another sig campaign soon?
1. Look for games where the top bet is not disproportional compared to overall pot. If pot is 120k and top bet is 100k, the most in bonus you can get is 1.2% of your wager, which will not likely cover the house edge since you contribute 1% of that bonus.
I'm not sure.
Are you including your own bet with that?
If the top bet is 100k, you should bet 100k too, meaning you get a little over 2% of the pot if you cash out just after the other 100k player.
I think it's optimal to match the highest bet.
If pot is 120k and top bet is 100k, that means my own bet is included. "Pot" is entire bet pool.
I agree that if bankroll is not an issue, matching largest bet is optimal or at least close to it. In some situations it might be the difference between max bet and sum of remaining wagers, but I'm not sure. e.g., whale bets 1M, 5 other players bet total of 700K, a bet of 300K might be better than 1M, since you only have to beat the whale to "cash" in the bonus.
More than often that is not the case, and for those smaller bankrolls playing against whales it is important to know that in many situations it simply cannot be +ev.
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