bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game - page 23.

fiscorcle

hero member

Activity: 994

Merit: 502

Quote from: devans on February 24, 2017, 02:59:48 AM

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 24, 2017, 02:13:44 AM

Understood. I have my own script that managed to stay +EV for about a week before it ran out of RAM and crashed, but I don't really play all that much. I'm more interested in the theory side of it

I assume that you've been running your bot in the strategy editor and–since it's running out of RAM–keeps track of historical data in some way. For what it's worth you could connect your bot directly to bustabit. This method has the advantage of being able to persist data to disk in between gambling sessions among others.

BaBot, a stripped-down version of Shiba, provides an easy example of how to accomplish that.

Nah, the strategy tester doesn't track bonuses. No point in using that if I want to test if my script can be +EV...

libertynow

full member

Activity: 145

Merit: 100

Quote from: Luxo42 on February 24, 2017, 04:35:20 AM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 04:26:16 PM

Quote from: Luxo42 on February 23, 2017, 11:48:17 AM

libertynow, is RoberBaron your account? same bets and cashouts.

Yes, it's an account I've used for testing for a long, long time. Probably ran more than 100 different scripts on that account. :-)

Why did RoberBaron fall from +4btc to -2btc?
Have u any expierence with percentage bet (percentage of bank)?
What algorithm do u use to cashout instanly?

I was betting to high a % of my bankroll. About 1%, which was not low enough to account for variance.

Sorry, I will not be sharing any details on the actual algorithm itself with the possible exception of a little more detail to large investors.

Luxo42

member

Activity: 126

Merit: 22

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 04:26:16 PM

Quote from: Luxo42 on February 23, 2017, 11:48:17 AM

libertynow, is RoberBaron your account? same bets and cashouts.

Yes, it's an account I've used for testing for a long, long time. Probably ran more than 100 different scripts on that account. :-)

Why did RoberBaron fall from +4btc to -2btc?
Have u any expierence with percentage bet (percentage of bank)?
What algorithm do u use to cashout instanly?

devans

sr. member

Activity: 528

Merit: 368

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 24, 2017, 02:13:44 AM

Understood. I have my own script that managed to stay +EV for about a week before it ran out of RAM and crashed, but I don't really play all that much. I'm more interested in the theory side of it

I assume that you've been running your bot in the strategy editor and–since it's running out of RAM–keeps track of historical data in some way. For what it's worth you could connect your bot directly to bustabit. This method has the advantage of being able to persist data to disk in between gambling sessions among others.

BaBot, a stripped-down version of Shiba, provides an easy example of how to accomplish that.

fiscorcle

hero member

Activity: 994

Merit: 502

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 07:38:45 PM

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 06:01:07 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 05:29:05 PM

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 05:10:51 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 04:47:53 PM

Quote from: JasonXG on February 23, 2017, 04:32:11 PM

You can't beat the EV that is why it is an EV. Just gamblers fallacy to believe a bot can magically do what a human cannot.

1) The bot isn't "beating EV", it's constantly making positive EV decisions which assuming bankroll is large enough and given enough time, turns into actual profit. Like what Ryan is doing with the actual site itself or what any other casino does....

2) Actually, gamblers fallacy is "the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future" and vice versa.

3) There's nothing magical about the EDGE bot. I'm a professional coder and have put a lot of time into fine tuning the algorithm to adjust for max EV situations...and I'm not saying it can't be beat sometime in future by someone else or another bot, but right now, it's playing positive EV.

This is all assuming that enough games can be +EV right? Given where the whales cash out, not every game is +EV?

Yes, it's an average.

Right, but theoretically you could have a scenario where it's impossible to play +EV, no? Does your bot account for that?

Sorry, this is about as far as I'm willing to go on explaining the bot. This is a competitive game after all. ;-)

Understood. I have my own script that managed to stay +EV for about a week before it ran out of RAM and crashed, but I don't really play all that much. I'm more interested in the theory side of it

libertynow

full member

Activity: 145

Merit: 100

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 06:01:07 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 05:29:05 PM

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 05:10:51 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 04:47:53 PM

Quote from: JasonXG on February 23, 2017, 04:32:11 PM

You can't beat the EV that is why it is an EV. Just gamblers fallacy to believe a bot can magically do what a human cannot.

1) The bot isn't "beating EV", it's constantly making positive EV decisions which assuming bankroll is large enough and given enough time, turns into actual profit. Like what Ryan is doing with the actual site itself or what any other casino does....

2) Actually, gamblers fallacy is "the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future" and vice versa.

3) There's nothing magical about the EDGE bot. I'm a professional coder and have put a lot of time into fine tuning the algorithm to adjust for max EV situations...and I'm not saying it can't be beat sometime in future by someone else or another bot, but right now, it's playing positive EV.

This is all assuming that enough games can be +EV right? Given where the whales cash out, not every game is +EV?

Yes, it's an average.

Right, but theoretically you could have a scenario where it's impossible to play +EV, no? Does your bot account for that?

Sorry, this is about as far as I'm willing to go on explaining the bot. This is a competitive game after all. ;-)

fiscorcle

hero member

Activity: 994

Merit: 502

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 05:29:05 PM

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 05:10:51 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 04:47:53 PM

Quote from: JasonXG on February 23, 2017, 04:32:11 PM

You can't beat the EV that is why it is an EV. Just gamblers fallacy to believe a bot can magically do what a human cannot.

1) The bot isn't "beating EV", it's constantly making positive EV decisions which assuming bankroll is large enough and given enough time, turns into actual profit. Like what Ryan is doing with the actual site itself or what any other casino does....

2) Actually, gamblers fallacy is "the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future" and vice versa.

3) There's nothing magical about the EDGE bot. I'm a professional coder and have put a lot of time into fine tuning the algorithm to adjust for max EV situations...and I'm not saying it can't be beat sometime in future by someone else or another bot, but right now, it's playing positive EV.

This is all assuming that enough games can be +EV right? Given where the whales cash out, not every game is +EV?

Yes, it's an average.

Right, but theoretically you could have a scenario where it's impossible to play +EV, no? Does your bot account for that?

DarkDays

legendary

Activity: 2030

Merit: 1189

Quote from: JasonXG on February 23, 2017, 04:32:11 PM

You can't beat the EV that is why it is an EV. Just gamblers fallacy to believe a bot can magically do what a human cannot.

You don't know what "EV" means. You probably mean "house edge", but as been explained many times in this thread, the house edge can be overcome due to the nature of the bonus system. You also don't know what "gamblers fallacy" means.

libertynow

full member

Activity: 145

Merit: 100

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 05:10:51 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 04:47:53 PM

Quote from: JasonXG on February 23, 2017, 04:32:11 PM

You can't beat the EV that is why it is an EV. Just gamblers fallacy to believe a bot can magically do what a human cannot.

1) The bot isn't "beating EV", it's constantly making positive EV decisions which assuming bankroll is large enough and given enough time, turns into actual profit. Like what Ryan is doing with the actual site itself or what any other casino does....

2) Actually, gamblers fallacy is "the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future" and vice versa.

3) There's nothing magical about the EDGE bot. I'm a professional coder and have put a lot of time into fine tuning the algorithm to adjust for max EV situations...and I'm not saying it can't be beat sometime in future by someone else or another bot, but right now, it's playing positive EV.

This is all assuming that enough games can be +EV right? Given where the whales cash out, not every game is +EV?

Yes, it's an average.

fiscorcle

hero member

Activity: 994

Merit: 502

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 04:47:53 PM

Quote from: JasonXG on February 23, 2017, 04:32:11 PM

You can't beat the EV that is why it is an EV. Just gamblers fallacy to believe a bot can magically do what a human cannot.

1) The bot isn't "beating EV", it's constantly making positive EV decisions which assuming bankroll is large enough and given enough time, turns into actual profit. Like what Ryan is doing with the actual site itself or what any other casino does....

2) Actually, gamblers fallacy is "the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future" and vice versa.

3) There's nothing magical about the EDGE bot. I'm a professional coder and have put a lot of time into fine tuning the algorithm to adjust for max EV situations...and I'm not saying it can't be beat sometime in future by someone else or another bot, but right now, it's playing positive EV.

This is all assuming that enough games can be +EV right? Given where the whales cash out, not every game is +EV?

libertynow

full member

Activity: 145

Merit: 100

Quote from: JasonXG on February 23, 2017, 04:32:11 PM

You can't beat the EV that is why it is an EV. Just gamblers fallacy to believe a bot can magically do what a human cannot.

1) The bot isn't "beating EV", it's constantly making positive EV decisions which assuming bankroll is large enough and given enough time, turns into actual profit. Like what Ryan is doing with the actual site itself or what any other casino does....

2) Actually, gamblers fallacy is "the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future" and vice versa.

3) There's nothing magical about the EDGE bot. I'm a professional coder and have put a lot of time into fine tuning the algorithm to adjust for max EV situations...and I'm not saying it can't be beat sometime in future by someone else or another bot, but right now, it's playing positive EV.

JasonXG

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 500

With all these new bustabit clones spawning its a surprise they still as popular as ever. I guess its the trust in the name and the brand. You can't beat that.

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 03:55:53 PM

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 12:25:54 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 09:42:40 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 22, 2017, 12:02:08 PM

Still trusting in the EV?

His bot seems to be doing reasonably well. It's wagered wagered 501.34 BTC, but got 8.1453 BTC in bonuses. His average cash out is around 1.28x, so that puts him pretty firmly in +EV territory.

Thanks for that confirmation, Ryan. I was starting to wonder if my EV calculation was wrong.

You calculate it in real-time?

The bet amount has the EV stored in the last 3 digits. For example, right now the bet amount is 17,117. The "1" in the hundreds spot means the EV is positive. The last two digits, "17" means that it's currently running a minimum EV of .17%/bet. According to the stats Ryan provided, EV is actually much higher around .40%. 8.1453 / 501.34 = 1.6247% - 1% (0x bust every 101 games) - .218% (house edge at 128) = .407%/bet

Every once in a while, I start and stop the bot. So that EV stored in the bet amount is for that session. Previous stats are stored at the NXT forum here: https://nxtforum.org/index.php?topic=13275.msg229488#msg229488

Thanks for the question.
LibertyNow

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 03:55:53 PM

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 12:25:54 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 09:42:40 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 22, 2017, 12:02:08 PM

Still trusting in the EV?

His bot seems to be doing reasonably well. It's wagered wagered 501.34 BTC, but got 8.1453 BTC in bonuses. His average cash out is around 1.28x, so that puts him pretty firmly in +EV territory.

Thanks for that confirmation, Ryan. I was starting to wonder if my EV calculation was wrong.

You calculate it in real-time?

The bet amount has the EV stored in the last 3 digits. For example, right now the bet amount is 17,117. The "1" in the hundreds spot means the EV is positive. The last two digits, "17" means that it's currently running a minimum EV of .17%/bet. According to the stats Ryan provided, EV is actually much higher around .40%. 8.1453 / 501.34 = 1.6247% - 1% (0x bust every 101 games) - .218% (house edge at 128) = .407%/bet

Every once in a while, I start and stop the bot. So that EV stored in the bet amount is for that session. Previous stats are stored at the NXT forum here: https://nxtforum.org/index.php?topic=13275.msg229488#msg229488

Thanks for the question.
LibertyNow

You can't beat the EV that is why it is an EV. Just gamblers fallacy to believe a bot can magically do what a human cannot.

libertynow

full member

Activity: 145

Merit: 100

Quote from: Luxo42 on February 23, 2017, 11:48:17 AM

libertynow, is RoberBaron your account? same bets and cashouts.

Yes, it's an account I've used for testing for a long, long time. Probably ran more than 100 different scripts on that account. :-)

libertynow

full member

Activity: 145

Merit: 100

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 23, 2017, 12:25:54 PM

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 09:42:40 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 22, 2017, 12:02:08 PM

Still trusting in the EV?

His bot seems to be doing reasonably well. It's wagered wagered 501.34 BTC, but got 8.1453 BTC in bonuses. His average cash out is around 1.28x, so that puts him pretty firmly in +EV territory.

Thanks for that confirmation, Ryan. I was starting to wonder if my EV calculation was wrong.

You calculate it in real-time?

The bet amount has the EV stored in the last 3 digits. For example, right now the bet amount is 17,117. The "1" in the hundreds spot means the EV is positive. The last two digits, "17" means that it's currently running a minimum EV of .17%/bet. According to the stats Ryan provided, EV is actually much higher around .40%. 8.1453 / 501.34 = 1.6247% - 1% (0x bust every 101 games) - .218% (house edge at 128) = .407%/bet

Every once in a while, I start and stop the bot. So that EV stored in the bet amount is for that session. Previous stats are stored at the NXT forum here: https://nxtforum.org/index.php?topic=13275.msg229488#msg229488

Thanks for the question.
LibertyNow

fiscorcle

hero member

Activity: 994

Merit: 502

Quote from: libertynow on February 23, 2017, 09:42:40 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 22, 2017, 12:02:08 PM

Still trusting in the EV?

His bot seems to be doing reasonably well. It's wagered wagered 501.34 BTC, but got 8.1453 BTC in bonuses. His average cash out is around 1.28x, so that puts him pretty firmly in +EV territory.

Thanks for that confirmation, Ryan. I was starting to wonder if my EV calculation was wrong.

You calculate it in real-time?

Luxo42

member

Activity: 126

Merit: 22

libertynow, is RoberBaron your account? same bets and cashouts.

libertynow

full member

Activity: 145

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 22, 2017, 12:02:08 PM

Still trusting in the EV?

His bot seems to be doing reasonably well. It's wagered wagered 501.34 BTC, but got 8.1453 BTC in bonuses. His average cash out is around 1.28x, so that puts him pretty firmly in +EV territory.

Thanks for that confirmation, Ryan. I was starting to wonder if my EV calculation was wrong.

fiscorcle

hero member

Activity: 994

Merit: 502

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 22, 2017, 12:02:08 PM

Still trusting in the EV?

His bot seems to be doing reasonably well. It's wagered wagered 501.34 BTC, but got 8.1453 BTC in bonuses. His average cash out is around 1.28x, so that puts him pretty firmly in +EV territory.

Very nice! Surprising, but definitely like to hear it

fiscorcle

hero member

Activity: 994

Merit: 502

Quote from: libertynow on February 13, 2017, 11:47:51 AM

Quote from: fiscorcle on February 13, 2017, 02:14:52 AM

Quote from: libertynow on February 12, 2017, 03:01:03 PM

If anybody is looking to gamble vicariously through my bonus bot, check this out:
https://nxtforum.org/index.php?topic=13275.msg229488#msg229488

Bot is EDGE_NXTAE. https://www.bustabit.com/user/EDGE_NXTAE

All questions welcome.

Thanks for your interest,
LibertyNow

https://www.bustabit.com/user/EDGE_NXTAE

Not looking too good right now, is it?

Actually, I'm very pleased. You can see the bet amount right now is 6,132. That means EV is positive and a whopping .32%/bet. The variance swings wildly, but if EV is positive the peaks and troughs will move up. Yesterday, it was over 300k. Just watch and you'll see.

I also take BTC investments directly. Just msg me with your NXT account and how much your sending. I'll reply with the BTC address to send to and what your NXT/BTC price lock is.

Thanks,
LibertyNow

Still trusting in the EV?

devans

sr. member

Activity: 528

Merit: 368

Quote from: Zenzolina on February 22, 2017, 05:59:42 AM

Look. Every single slot game use rng to determine "random" outcome of current spin, yet you can fix it to give, 80 - 70 - 60 or even less % of total pay ins....it will never give more than it is deposited.....same here...why do you think he cannot fix % of payouts on the game he coded by himself

If you meant that bustabit pays out slightly less to its players than it takes in (99.9987 %, historically) you are of course correct. This is true for virtually all casinos since their goal is to make a profit after all. However, your phrasing seemed to imply that bad outcomes are deliberately chosen when specific players are active, which is demonstrably false. Perhaps that just a misunderstanding on my end, in which case I apologize.

In any case, the outcomes of all bustabit games from #1,000,000 through #10,000,000 were determined more than two years ago. They cannot be altered without players noticing. See its provably fair seeding events for technical details.

Topic: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game - page 23. (Read 293959 times)