At the moment Bitcoin is worth $69,931.59, we are about to break 70K again. I'm very bullish on Bitcoin right now, I tried holding as much as I could when it was under 60K. I tried to grow my investment portfolio with my maximum. Anyway now that I have a decent portfolio, and I'm continuing my investment in DCA, And i will continue until I reach my goal. anyway I think Bitcoin will cross 70K in some time. And I reckon we'll see a bull very soon.
We are just getting started with the rising price of bitcoin and às an optimistic fellow I see a possible new ATH in the month of August. Am guessing a lot of those who out of market fud panic sold their bitcoin when the price felll dip below $60k would be in regret by now that the price has bounced back at almost $70k. There are always two different sets of individuals in turbulence time's in the market, those who see opportunity and those who see problem with the market. It's only those who see opportunity like you that continued with their DCA strategy accumulating more portfolio before the price would surge back high because the investment plan is one of a long term for the bull run.
Your advice is not acceptable to me, because regular investors never invest after seeing dumping and pumping in the market. Investing in the Bitcoin DCA method Those who follow the regular DCA method only invest, and when the portfolio grows, they will sell the bitcoins again after a long time.
You notice that currently the most difficult phase is those who are buying and selling Bitcoin outside the DCA system, now is the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin for the long term. You see a poor investor can never buy bitcoins all at once, so buying small amounts of bitcoins over and over again with this DCA method will definitely build up a large portfolio.
The DCA is not a regular method of buying Bitcoins because remember there are also rich investors that would love to go an all in by lump summing. For example, a rich investor may decide to come in to the market when the price was $56k and made a lump summing amount of $200k and Hodl for 10 years, then for someone who wants to invest using the DCA and they also start DCAing with $100k weekly when the price was same $56k. Now in 10 years time the person using the DCA will only own Bitcoins worth $48k which is just about one quarter the amount of what the person that did lump summing and let's assume that the price didn't DIP less than the amount it was when they both started their investments. So in this case the person that did lump summing is still at advantage and will make more profits than the person that used the DCA method to accumulate for 10 years. I just want you to understand that the DCA is a good strategy for everyone to get involved in the accumulating process but it doesn't mean that everyone should use same strategy.
If one's portfolio has grown so big doesn't mean they should sell all their Bitcoins even if they have spent a long time to own such a huge portfolio, they can decide to sell part of it and not all and it also depends the price of Bitcoin at that time and if they have also met their investment targets before they consider if to sell or not but saying that if they have gotten a huge portfolio they can sell their Bitcoins doesn't sound right to me.
Your above example is not very good Cryptoprincess101, and maybe you are not very far off from making a better example, yet think about your example. if you are comparing different BTC accumulation strategies, then you should be attempting to be realistic in your comparisons and not change so many variables, so the idea with the lump summer is that he has an amount of capital right away that he can invest, yet the DCA'er might take several years (maybe even 10 years or more) to invest the same amount or a similar amount. You can even use the debasement of the dollar or the expectation that the income of the DCA'er is likely to go up.. You can also consider whether or not the lump summer might decide to invest at various points down the road, or if you might merely be comparing either the advantages of getting into bitcoin early to not getting in early or maybe even suggesting that even if a person remains consistent, he may well be able to catch up to the early investor who had remained somewhat passive and ONLY invested a few times. Maybe your example would have to be structured in such a way to show whatever kinds of story that you might be trying to tell rather than the boring ass story that rich people are advantaged - especially since we already know that a rich person who is either whimpy or negative about bitcoin is likely to lose position to someone who is poorer yet aggressive and positive about bitcoin.
So maybe you are staring out with a bit of a challenging example if you are saying that someone starts out with an ability to invest $200k... and maybe the person who is less well off might not have enough disposable income to invest $200k, even over several years, yet a person who is able to invest $1k per week would be able to invest right around $200k within around 4 years.. so it might be more informative to try to compare more realistic scenarios (or more comparable scenarios).. maybe someone who invests around $100 per week might be more realistically compared to another person who lump summed $10k or $20k into bitcoin, so the person who continues to invest $100 per week, would have had invested $5,200 after a year, $10,400 after 2 years, $20,800 after 4 years, and $52k after 10 years, so maybe that arguably comparable person who first bought into bitcoin with $10k or $20k does not continue to invest, and so the persistent DCA'er will catch up and surpass the one who seemed to have had been advantaged in the beginning, since that person was whimpy about bitcoin (and maybe even a bit negative, lazy or scared of investing more into bitcoin), even though the lump summer was advantaged over the one who ended up not being able to lump sum but ended up being aggressive and positive about bitcoin and continued to act upon his positive feelings by investing persistently, consistently and ongoingly into bitcoin.
Is it truly now possible that we won't be seeing any large DIPs anymore after Trump's announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve? Because why would individuals and institutions sell their Bitcoin with the knowledge that there's a probable race between nations in Bitcoin accumulation. One nation like China WON'T allow itself to be behind the United States in participating in this technological marvel. Russia, because of Bitcoin's properties and in their current situation, will need to buy it as well, and better buy it while it's in five digits.
Perhaps the "Bitcoin Race" will start on 2025, no? There's no need to wait to buy the DIP anymore if that's true. It's DCA and front-run everyone!
Oh gawd Wind_FURY. You are outrageous sometimes.
This sounds like your previous prediction (wasn't that in around early 2021? or did you say that in late 2021?) that bitcoin would never go below $50k again, and how did that play out?
it does not really matter too much whether you said that in early 2021 or in late 2021 because that kind of a statement was a bit too much, and not merely because you ended up being wrong, but because the contents of the statement was putting too much confidence in one BTC price direction and expressing yourself in absolutes... Yes, I know that you cannot help yourself, but still could you at least try a bit MOAR harder? Just for funzies?
DCA approach reduces the risk of loss in the long run.
Maybe a better way of saying that is that the DCA approach facilitates the ability for an investor to ensure that s/he is investing into something like bitcoin in such a way that s/he is able to be as aggressive as he is able to be, yet at the same time staying within his/her disposable income.. so that s/he is using money that he does not need in the present, in the future and even 4-10 years or longer down the road. Accordingly, even if the BTC investment were to go completely to zero, DCA helps to facilitate that the money that was used to invest into bitcoin was within the category of money that s/he could afford to lose.
So then since bitcoin could end up going to zero, the devil comes into the details regarding how much (or how aggressive) a person would like to be in terms of the way that s/he employs a kind of DCA that accounts for the complete use of discretionary(disposable) income.
when Bitcoin has already skyrocket to one million dollar, the DCA accumulating approach wouldn't be that idea again, so I urge all Bitcoineer to seize the opportunity now and utilitize the DCA accumulating strategy now that it's still effective.
The DCA approach does not become invalid merely because bitcoin prices had gone to $1 million or whatever other seemingly high price you are choosing to suggest that DCA would no be longer effective.
Surely we are still quite early in BTC's adoption (such as in the ballpark of only around 1% world-wide adoption), so I have my doubts that bitcoin is going to become a mature and/or saturated market, even in the next 5-10 years and/or even if BTC prices were to reach $5 million to $50 million in that period of time.... so it is quite likely that even when BTC prices get into the $5 million to $50 million range, there are still going to be quite a few individuals who still had not gotten into bitcoin and would be needing to buy some bitcoin, and so in that regard, there is likely going to still be a decent amount of upwards pressures on the BTC price while at the same time, BTC's volatility is likely never going to completely go away, even though I would suspect that bitcoin is going to become increasingly less volatile when it is reaching around 10x gold's market cap, which based on today's gold prices would be somewhere in the ballpark of $5 million to $10 million per bitcoin.
Another thing is that it seems that bitcoin is around 1,000x better than gold, even though surely it could take 50-200 years to reach those kinds of price levels, yet at the same time, there is likely going to be quite a bit of adoption and volatility along the way, if bitcoin's investment thesis continues to play out, and surely there are not even guarantees that bitcoin's investment thesis will continue to play out, even though it seems to be continuing to play out at least for now.
Buying on dips or peaks through DCA is not the worst thing an investor would do rather selling and trading in dips or peaks is a bad decision. The fat is that the increasing value of Bitcoin increases in the log run. So no selling, no trading, no tampering just HODL.
To me, buying is better than selling. Its essence is not that you just buy. Rather, it's better to sell 1 time if you buy 100 times (selling 1 time instead of buying 100 times is just an example, it means lengthening the investment).
You phrase that in a strange way Jewan420. There is a concept of spend and replace, so there is nothing wrong with selling bitcoin, even during your accumulation stages as long as you keep your focus and replace your spent bitcoin in a fairly prompt time that contributes towards your ongoing focus on BTC accumulation and not getting into any kind of mindset that selling is a strategy to accumulate more bitcoin.. because that is a kind of slippery slope in regards to how you should be considering your bitcoin accumulation journey.. and/or even your bitcoin maintenance journey.
I understand that so many folks, especially when they are early in their bitcoin journey, they will sometimes get distracted by BTC price movements, and so they may well end up getting tempted into trading rather than ongoingly buying, and I am not going to proclaim to know any kind of exact remedy in terms of how a guy might want to fix his own temptations, since he may well need to set up his own buying systems, whether it is DCA, buying on dips or lump sum, and also how he is treating his reserves in order to attempt to account for nearly inevitable BTC volatility... .. so each person has to figure out how to employ his own system in accordance with his own individual factors, and perhaps if the guy is having dilemmas or questions regarding what to do or how to think about what he is doing, he might want to run some of the ideas by guys in this thread.. even though at the same time, it ends up being his choice about what to do and the extent to which to consider and/or incorporate the ideas of others into his own strategies and practices in regards to bitcoin accumulation and/or bitcoin portfolio maintenance.
Regardless of the strategy you use, I don't think it's a good decision to think about selling too soon. If you use the DCA method you will get many opportunities to buy and in this case if you decide to hold for a long time without thinking of selling, then you can be considered as an ideal investor. That is, the invested money should not be spent in any way, either through trading or through sales.
I largely agree with what you are saying, yet this last part seems a bit strict (and imposing, and I have my own difficulties in terms of accepting absolutes), even though surely any guy who is still in his early BTC accumulation stages would most likely be attempting to largely stay focused on various ways of buying or earning BTC, so selling would not be part of his base case, and most of the times any sales could end up sell and replace within a reasonably short period of time... so yeah, I am not sure if sell and replace could end up devolving into trading.. and surely the amount of BTC accumulated and various other
9 individual factors could have various effects on how individual strategies are deployed.
The DCA method is not only for those who want to buy Bitcoins but cannot buy them all at once due to lack of funds. The DCA method is for anyone who wants to invest in Bitcoin. Everyone knows that Bitcoin market is the most volatile market. If you are a true investor, you definitely don't want your money to be lost after investing. To catch up with what you said I would have had to go back another 8,9 months and invest when bitcoin was $35k,$36k. But now the price has reached $70k! Now what if someone invests a large sum of money at once, and 2 days later the price of Bitcoin drops to $40k? Have you thought about that? I think no investor can think like that.
We know that DCA method can be used by anyone but however I'm a bit unclear on the aspect you mentioned that
if someone is a real investor they would never want to lose there money, are you actually saying that someone who invest on Bitcoin for holding may likely lose his investment on the process? Actually I need some clarification because if that's what you actually mean, it implies that you don't even understand the advantage of holding, you should actually understand that in holding no matter how the price will drop you can never be affected on your investment, perhaps I you don't really understand how it works let me explain it with an example, so let's take for instance years ago you invested when Bitcoin was $50k and it later fall to $26k there is no need to panic even if your investment depreciated in value but it will surely come back it normal price and even continue the uptrend movement, so truly there no need to be concerned about Bitcoin price because your investment is secured so long as you are holding, so try not to be thinking on that direction.
It seems to me that it is quite difficult for anyone to not feel uncomfortable when his investment is in negative territories, and the further in negative territories, the more of a toll that can take on a person's psychology, even if he already has a lot of good systems in place to buy more BTC or to hold and maybe even if s/he has cash to continue to buy down further and further, there frequently can be doubts along the way that may become even more uncomfortable when BTC holdings are further in the negative.
There are also no guarantees that BTC prices will recover from any dip that ends up happening, so yeah, many of us buy on dips and continue to buy on dips, and sometimes the dips go so far down that we run out of money to continue to buy and we have to either change our strategy to DCA (so we buy only when new money comes in) or maybe we might just decide to HODL through it.
Hopefully we do not end up selling on a dip or even structure some kind of a selling strategy, yet there could be circumstances in which some selling ends up happening at times that were not quite within preferred practices.
I am pretty sure that I have posted several times in regards to my own situation of having had sold some BTC in late 2018 due to some cash management issues and some bills from extra projects coming in earlier (and for larger amounts) than expected, and sometimes decisions have to be made based on then circumstances that might not be as preferable as expected... You could probably look back at some of my posts at that time in November/December 2018 (since I don't delete anything), and you can potentially identify that I had ended up selling something around 4% of my BTC stash (around $4,200-ish - during an extensive dip period), and maybe I ended up buying back around half of what I had sold prior to the BTC price shooting up from $4,200 to $13,880 between April 2019 to June 2019.. and then yeah the BTC price corrected a couple times again.. but still.. there are ups and downs and sometimes we are trying to manage and balance our own circumstances based on a variety of factors, and we might sometimes find ourselves in less than preferable circumstances, even if we might have had considered ourselves to have had been engaging in decently good portfolio management and cash management practices.. Oh by the way, when the BTC price crashed way below expectations in March 2020, I did not make any mistakes. I bought all the way down, and even though I might not have caught the exact bottom (of $3,850-ish), I did not panic, run out of cash or sell or otherwise do the wrong thing, even though surely that was a very emotional price drop, so it is understandable how folks could have had made mistakes during that period.
Many times position size and managing cashflow can allow us to deal with almost anything that can come our way, but surely it is not guaranteed that our systems are going to end up being enough, and also many of us know that the price of any asset, including bitcoin, can end up staying irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent, and sometimes we might not realize that we have not sufficiently accounted for certain kinds of extreme scenarios that can end up playing out from time to time, including that the BTC price is not guaranteed to recover, even if we end up buying on various dips that end up happening along the way.
