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Hey do you want to do an experiment on the difference of opinion. Maybe we could setup a thread with the two of us in, and setup some rules for the experiment. Im totally open to discussing and defining the rules but i was thinking something like this
Term - 12 months, split into 52 weekly time frames
Budget(Imaginary) - $5200
Exchange - Bitstamp for pricing buys
Changes Allowed - Sundays only and require to be posted on the thread.
I set dca up for a fixed weekly buy, at 5pm UTC on a Monday every week, and then record the imaginary btc amount in the thread. I can change my dca amount any week by posting in the thread on Sunday only but cannot go past the Budget of $5200.
You post every Sunday in the thread with your market limit buys targeting your dip targets for that week Mon - Sun , if any hit during the week, you record the btc amount & price paid in the thread. You can cancel your limit buy orders after they stayed active for at least one week. You can set any amount to the limit buy orders but cannot go past the budget of $5200.
At year end we tally the total amount BTC, AVG Price, $Spent and see how we did.
This is not a bet/wagering opportunity just a simple experiment. Others ofc can bet on the outcomes tho.
Any interest?
I am not sure what point you would be trying to prove. Maybe you are starting out with $5,200 and you are planning to buy $100 per week in bitcoin, yet of course, you have options to use all of your budget right away or to invest smaller or larger, and then when you get at the end of 52 weeks where are you.
The one thing that always gets me in the variance of opinion, is general the BFTD person goes back in time a picks out a historical period that suits/backsup their assertation that BFTD is better. Then assert what they would have done to get all the different dips. But in a future price pattern is hard to guess, and really know are you getting it at the correct dip price. When we hit the ATL this cycle, I remember alot of people were waiting for <12k when we are about 15-16k mark, and probably missed the boat. The dca'r would have got some really close to it for a bit. When the market started rising I would be fairly certain the dip buyers probably got in at a higher price some where in the >20k. I think this scenario plays out quite a bit more than people are willing to admit during all cycles, and price volatility in bitcoin.
For the experiment the future market is a complete unknown, for both the dca'r and the dip buyer. It creates a level playing field and simulates reality, I think the experiment would help show some of WCS(woulda,coulda,shoulda) side of dip buying that you dont really have privy too.
Alternatively, you could have someone who buys and sells weekly too, and sure some traders lose their money fairly quickly, but frequently it could take a whole cycle or two to play out.
And yeah, if you are emphasizing buying strategies ONLY, then surely even the variance in buying strategies could also take more than a whole cycle to start out.
I do like the idea of $100 per week, and I like the idea of having a lump sum in the beginning, so there could be someone who starts out in bitcoin and largely knows that he has $100 per week coming in for the next year, so that would add up to $5,200, but maybe he even starts out with another lump sum amount that is $4,800 - so then the total amount over the year is $10k, he has $4,800 available right away, and he has another $100 coming in every week for the next 52 weeks, and still I have some troubles understanding what is being proven by the whole project, since we can go back and back test historical performance on DCA and many times we can see that it may well take many years before the DCA method really shows its power, perhaps a cycle and a half or more.. .yet on shorter timelines, the results may well be a bit more ambiguous, especially the first few years.
buying strategies only, no selling or trading just pure accumulation. I think the term is something could look at changing, I just put something down to start the conversation. Also the $ amount is completely arbitrary, you can slice and dice it anyway ya want. DIP buyer could load up everything into one buy right now if they truly believe the current price is the maximum dip in the next 12 months.
Another thing there can be various ways to deal with the initial lump sum including buying right way, add it into the DCA or set some or all of it aside for buying on dips, and even if one method performs better than another, there might not be any real way to argue that it was better merely because it performed better, since in the end, the best system is one in which the guy has comfortably tailored his ways of accumulating bitcoin, and surely some of the buys on dips may or may not end up filling. but that does not necessarily mean the guy did anything right or wrong based on performance in something like a 1 year timeline.
By the way, there have been so many forum threads in which a forum member says that he is going to buy bitcoin regularly and track his portfolio as he builds such BTC portfolio, and many of those kinds of threads don't even last half a year, even though surely they can be very popular kinds of threads, and they probably would be even better if they were pursued and followed through for something like a whole cycle or even longer.
Absolutely agree, there is so many different ways to approach your accumulation strategy. Lump sum, dip buying, dca etc they all ultimately help you get to your accumulation target. Its not so much about which one performs better, I'm just interested in a future unknown how well will dip WCS buys at. Like i said above its too easy to go back into historical data and say oh yeah i definitely would have done that when in reality they probably didn't.
Yeah people could back out of the thread and stop doing it. Is there some other way could do it to make it easier to do, I'm all ears if you have any suggestions?