Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 143. (Read 130988 times)

Yeah that 9 factory by sir JayJuanGee was actually a big help to me too had to take my time to go through it , so is highly recommended for anyone that's new to bitcoin, especially those that want to engage in long-term holding in bitcoin. Because is due to not having good guide or knowledge that's most people most time endup Messing up with their investment (bitcoin). I was once like that going into this space without any proper guidance or knowledge. I endup with countless losses as a trader but now I'm more of a holder ( long-term Investor) than a trader.

Well we have been saying that one don't need any complex knowledge to start accumulating bitcoin which is true, but as time goes he or she is going to need some good knowledge about Bitcoin in order to keep their bitcoin investment moving smoothly.

As the matter of fact I don't even consider that as an excuse to those early investors who sold a large amounts of there Bitcoin then because there is no way you will presume that the reason why they sold there Bitcoin then was because they did not trust Bitcoin, however in that regard there is no how somebody would invest on something they did not trust or believe on, so actually I don't think trust was the reason why they choose to sell there Bitcoin, however the only way we can justify their reason is that during those days most of those people does not really understand the importance of holding so instead they were more focus on collecting the small profit they saw on there investment, however in as much as we are emphasizing on this case let us  not generalize it because there are also investors from those days that are  still holding till now.

You are right if they implement DCA purchasing and why should they wait. In long-term implementation, of course there is no waiting at any purchasing stage, there doesn't have to be any reason, if it is due, we have to execute it. That is the application that can be said to be focused on DCA. Moreover, for long term planning, of course we need to make as many purchases as possible every week, so if they wait, they are probably not implementing DCA.

The reason is quite simple why they regret it later because they missed many opportunities to buy and that's all because they waited long enough. I'm bored of waiting because if next week it's the umpteenth buying stage then I keep buying and I look at the portfolio after that where my BTC holdings continue to increase.

One of the things that led to the recent increase in the price of Bitcoin is because more investors are coming in to invest in Bitcoin and there has been some major inflow  which resulted to increase in the market capitalization of Bitcoin so the demand is becoming high and so also the supply and the media is also a contributing factor because the news of Bitcoin is now becoming more noticed in social media platforms and other mediums through which the information of Bitcoin circulates across the globe.

Most people are well enlightened about Bitcoin now unlike the early investors that sold most of their hodling, majority of investors are now seeing the need to HODL their Bitcoin without selling or withdrawing so all this steps is what has aided the price of Bitcoin to experience some increase for about a week now.

Waiting? Until what price are you waiting for especially with the current condition of the bitcoin price which is still in a positive trend will make you wait longer for the desired price so I don't think this is a wise choice to do at this time.

It is not wrong if you are ready for the risk when you are left behind when the price returns much higher and waits longer because with the bearish that has occurred in the previous few years and for a long time where the decline in 2020 even until 2023 so I think it will be a little difficult to wait in a situation that is in an upward trend for a while.

It will be more worth it if you keep buying while you can without seeing the price that is happening now because after all when the price shrinks again then it will not be a problem because our focus is long-term and we also will not miss the moment where we have to be tired of waiting uncertainly because when you expect bitcoin to go down then it could happen the opposite where bitcoin accelerates further than now.
Just relying on waiting alone will not make you more comfortable in the end so try to take action instead of just continuing to wait for something that is not sure to happen.

Well I will say that bitcoin quick recovered from the recent dip we saw earlier this month was because the investors we have right now, are very much more enlighten and aware about bitcoin investment and the manipulations that usually happens. As the years are going bye investors are getting smarter and being fully aware that bitcoin is a limited asset and shouldn't be discarded cheaply. So people are now holding firm and are not moved to dispose their assets irrespective of the negative news that might be affecting bitcoin temporarily. It is no longer the same as with the early investors who were always terrified whenever there is any negative news about bitcoin, that alway prompt them to start panic selling. I believe that investors holding firm to their bitcoin without the urge to sell was really instrumental to bitcoin quick recovery to it current price.

Both of us seem to be suggesting that learning comes from experience, and personally, I am not even suggesting that people are going to learn and the same rate. Some people learn faster and might even have had better and more interesting experiences in their lives prior to getting into bitcoin, and frequently if we try to be in touch with our limitations we might be able to experiment and also to try to make sure that we are learning from our mistakes rather than making similar mistakes over and over, since sometimes it can be difficult to even know the extent of our mistakes and some practices might not be the right practices.  Sometimes we might get overly focused on short-term profits, lack of profits or even losses that we have, but then we also might learn that getting too focused on short-term might not be to our advantage if we are accumulating bitcoin and we are early in the process of BTC accumulation, we may well not be in profits, and it may well not even be very important if we are in profits. Sometimes it might be better that we are not in profits in the beginning, since in the beginning we should be accumulating BTC, which can take one or two cycles to get to a really good place with our BTC accumulation, depending on the level that we are able to make our disposable income - which also sometimes young people might be attending school (university) and training in various ways so they might not be in as good of a position to increase their disposable income and to invest into bitcoin, so they have to find a balance in their investment that is comfortable for them.

Experience may be more important than a mentor, yet the idea of a mentor is to get advice and guidance, yet sometimes the free sources are as good as the paid sources, yet guys have to figure out their balances in that too, since one of the selling points of a paid mentor is that they will specifically focus on helping in a way to cause a belief that their services were worth it.


I doubt that anyone here is suggesting that it is a good idea to wait for a dip, especially if you are expecting below $50k that might not happen (and surely seems like a long shot, in spite of what a lot of pundits are proclaiming), and we don't know if any dip will happen.  A lot of guys here have already responded to your seeming pie in the sky ideas about waiting to be a good strategy, which seems quite off, absent some kind of context to explain why waiting would be preferable to just buying, even if the BTC price might dip further, then just buy more.

So, as already mentioned to you (or in response to your post) those who wait for a dip would likely have had either already prepared for up buy buying regularly, buying recently or just had a decent amount of front loading of their BTC purchases.  Anyone newer to bitcoin, and maybe even in their first cycle, may well not be advantaged at all to apply a waiting strategy now or at any point in their first 4 years or so.. .. DCA also is not a waiting strategy... and I tend to recommend buying every week for the DCA'rs unless their cash flow does not make weekly buying easy... so the waiting and the structuring for newbie investors is mostly structured around cashflow dynamics rather than expectations of price movements, even though surely between every week, if a person is buying every week, there might be some a attempts to buy dips during the week, but there still might need to be a deadline to buy at a certain point in the week whether the price had dipped or not and then presumptively after that weekly buy had been made, the BTC buying allowance amount for the next week would soon thereafter come available. 


I would not necessarily suggest to completely ignore the news, yet frequently the news and the various happenings that might even relate to bitcoin, are not necessarily going to affect your BTC accumulation strategy, since the short term news events likely should not affect the strength of your bitcoin conviction or bitcoin's investment thesis, yet if you might not really be very sure why you are invested in bitcoin in the first place, you might end up getting overly influenced by various short  term happenings (such as news events that may or may not be very relevant)..

Many of us likely realize that some of the most relevant pieces of information to affect your bitcoin investment approach relate to your cashflow and your discretionary income and the various ways that you are creating back up cash systems for yourself that helps you to determine your level of aggressiveness, and surely you miight already have some built in ideas about how much bitcoin that you are buying every week no matter what and how much money you might put on the side for potential dips, and you don't even necessarily need to put any money on the side for dips, yet some guys will feel better to have a bit of extra money on the side and other guys just consider their weekly DCA amounts to be sufficient for also buying dips.  There is no exact correct answer regarding if you should completely lean one way or another or to allow the news to affect you at all in terms of some buying bitcoin systems that you might already have in place and if you end up deviating too much from your existing systems, you might realize that you made a mistake or that you ended up gambling which may or may not end up paying off in the long term or sometimes you make some changes, and then you realize that what you did might not have made any big difference, but going through the process of making some of you changes (perhaps even small tweaks to your already existing system) might have helped you do learn about how to approach the matters in the future.

Part of the point would be to attempt to stay focused on your various systems and goals, and sure, maybe some current events might cause you to tweak a little bit, but you may also have to realize that if you tweak too much then you might have had been better off to just stick with your already existing system since some tweaks might increase your risk or cause you to be gambling more than investing.. and it is not always clear when you might have had crossed over such lines and you might not realize until later that you had made such a mistake (or overreach of your own personal resources, whether financial or psychology or both).


Part of the dilemma in ongoing aggressive DCA is that you are not going to end up having extra money to buy the dips, so there is always a bit of a balance between buying and waiting when you choose to hold back some of your fiat to hold in reserves for buying on potential dips.  there is no right answer regarding the right strategy, except perhaps the newer (earlier) that you are in your bitcoin accumulation journey the more likely you should be just erroring on the side of DCAing and accumulating regularly rather than waiting or holding back much if any value.. yet that remains a judgement call..and sometimes you will have regrets when you don't balance very well, yet a lot of times newbies have regrets even though they should not necessarily have regrets since everything you do can have trade offs and you don't necessarily see or recognize the tradeoffs until after the BTC price has moved, yet part of the DCA strategy helps to get price moves out of your head since they are really difficult to predict, especially short term price moves and especially there are a lot of folks telling you which way they are going to move and those people are not tending to be as correct as they might present themselves as being.

Do we need to continue bothering about the past, why not focus on the present. Same way back then people neglected the option of being part of the Bitcoin market same a lot of people currently are depriving themselves that opportunity. Yes, 14 -15 years ago the price of Bitcoin was far lower compared to today's entry price for any investor but we need to also reconsider that in the next 15 years from now, there will be a huge difference from the current price of Bitcoin and then.

The worst will be missing out on these opportunities and not investing. Considering an easy access to Bitcoin, Bitcoin investment has already been strategies into separate approaches to accumulate conveniently which reduces the stress of looking at the current price too big and less possible to hold good portions in our portfolio.

How long do you want to keep waiting for the dip that no one's knows when that will happen and you might keep waiting to see the dip and keep wasting the time that you are suppose to use to be accumulating bitcoin, increasing and growing your bitcoin portfolio by sitting on the fence so that the price of bitcoin will dip to your expected price.

A new investor who just want to start his bitcoin journey should invest right away regardless of the price of bitcoin because he will be hodli for a long period of time and as long as he is buying constantly every week or month with DCA, he will be able to accumulate more bitcoin than those new investors that is waiting for a dip as if they are the one controlling the price of bitcoin. DCA is the best for investors who just started their bitcoin journey or are still in their early bitcoin accumulation phase because the strategy gives them the opportunity to buy bitcoin at the bottom line of the dip and when the price pump, so there is no need waiting.

One thing with these new unserious investors that feels the dip is the best time for them to buy, if the price dips, they will not even buy and they will be waiting for it to go dipper, and they will still be waiting till the price will pump again and they will miss out again and again. Time waits for no one and the earlier you start buying with your discretionary income consistent and persistent with DCA the best for you to accumulate more bitcoin because nobody knows the next move of bitcoin price.

You might be waiting for the dip and the price of bitcoin keep pumping, you will use that money which you are suppose to use to buy bitcoin for something else and you have shatter your plans on investing in bitcoin. Our actions now is what will determine our financial strength in future. Waiting for the dip is done by those investors who already have enough Bitcoin in their portfolio or who have accumulated a good size of bitcoin in the or portfolio.

As time goes by we realise that its better to have bought more Bitcoin in the past than in the future, so investors selling off their bitcoin holdings, it might not be as possible to accumulate as he/she did in the past again. We can't avoid mistakes entirely, but we can try much as possible to learn from past errors not to do it repeatedly, We have to seek for ideas to cope with our investment not to fall on cheap mistakes. Many investors are failing to recognise bitcoins value over time, Bitcoin investment is a long term process that requires accumulating steadily over the years to achieve good possession of coins but so many bitcoin holders fail to keep up to the investment process repeating thesame mistakes they supposed to have learnt from,  rather they still fall in same pit. Selling is a personal decision but we shouldn't do it because of challenge in the market or little gains, So we shouldn't sell our holdings because of challenges and to start afresh again rather we should stay patient holding onto our coins and focus on accumulating more to benefit from the long term growth and appreciation of value. "There is a saying that the end of a thing is better than the  beginning"', meaning  if we can stick to our investment plans to end it will be better, there are times challenges will be faced in our investment journey  but we should keep pushing  no matter the odds to get to end. As a beginner the aim is to accumulate enough Bitcoin and build a Portfolio not to sell untimely with intention to go in again, if we have accumulated enough Bitcoin and we wish to sell it should be done with discretion  to remain in the process than  to have regrets of unfavourable actions carried out.

Predicting the value of Bitcoin and waiting to invest or buy dips are both uncertain. You need to set your target first and wasting time to accumulate bitcoins may not be the right decision as even if there is a downward trend the chances of its price falling below $50k is very slim. The freedom of activity of your assets is of course your own but it may be ideal to take expert advice and especially follow the DCA strategy to raise enough awareness about the proper use of assets in investing.
Waiting for dips means you lose an important day so your decisions should be towards depositing bitcoin by starting DCA because every buying regardless of its price can give you much more profit than other investments like 2x or 3x mathematical rate. You must buy aggressively during dips and also focus on accumulating bitcoin regularly.

So don't ever look at negative news that doesn't make sense because this is certainly the work of the media which is just a little mistake if it is already in a well-known article then bitcoin will be fried to be worse, that's why beginners who are just building bitcoin ownership hear this news there is a little doubt / anxiety, what is better is to ignore any news, don't check the market every day, but it's better to check the market when you want to buy btc to increase your BTC ownership.

Because by seeing negative news, of course this will affect their focus in building their BTC ownership, there are even beginners to stop buying because they see this news, so for me, I don't care about any news because I am immune to news that corners bitcoin when it goes down, but I already have a firmness that when it goes down it is time to buy at a discount to increase the portfolio will grow even more.

Well, you might be right but there are things you still need to get straight away. However, If we conclude that Bitcoin can't be profitable in future because those who invested on Bitcoin in the past have already profited from it earlier/now, that means we are making a big mistake.
The reason why it looks like you can't get profits from Bitcoin in future is because you are thinking that it's too late to get started by investing. People who invested on Bitcoin in the easiest age were lucky to have that opportunity to buy bitcoin at a low rate. But presently, this is our own opportunity to get started with DCA method and invest on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin was listed in the year 2009 (if am not mistaken) and those that was opportune to buy it in 2010 were the luckiest ones, and from 2009 till date is 15 years old and Bitcoin is $67k+ (despite the new ATH). Which means in the next 15 years more, BTC will worth more than this, so let's clear the doubts and start accumulating some Bitcoin.
It's a good explanation that explains that technology is improving because some of us don't have to make mistakes before we know what we don't. Those who made mistakes in the past has also learned their lessons and take corrections too. So we don't need to make those mistakes because we have learned from those who made mistakes.

Your right. He is a true epitome of a brilliant mind. If you or anyone have keen interest in getting deeper into JJG's knowledge and expertise. I recommended two of his threads that shed insights based on the complexities and swings of the Bitcoin market and how to manage it.

JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance)

JJG’s Outline of Bitcoin Investment Ideas


Thanks for directing the conversation to this direction Jay. Mistakes are inevitable in investment but most times unintentional. Learning from other people's mistakes undoubtedly improves our decision-making. But we can't expect complete immunity from making mistakes along the line in our investment. The market is volatile, making it very challenging for a lot of investors both newbies and experienced investors.

Not just volatility alone, new challenges like, market shifts, regulation, circumstances based on the economy, and conflicts may as well get an investor caught up to make mistakes in decision-making. However, we can minimize the rate at which we make mistakes and maximize success if we stay informed while maintaining a disciplined approach to our investment.

Actually I don't think early bitcoiners are to be blamed because as at then the awareness of Bitcoin was nothing to compare to now and back then they were doubting if Bitcoin will still exist till today so we can only say it's a mistake for them to sell too much and too soon because Bitcoin is existing yeah, because what if after they sold their Bitcoin and then maybe a year after Bitcoin stop existing would you say they made a mistake for selling their bitcoins?. I don't think they made a mistake then because the future is what we can't tell.

Even today some of us still have this feeling and thought about  Bitcoin existence like the early bitcoiners, they are still doubting if Bitcoin will still stay for long and this is the reason why most of them don't hesitate to sell their coin whenever they have small profit, of a truth we can't tell what the future will look like but with what we are seeing now we shouldn't be having those negative thought and feeling about Bitcoin.

Price moment is just one factor but an important one. Seeing where we are standing right now, it will be ideal to wait for dip that can take price down below 50k and accumulate aggressively at that price. These 9 factors are good specially for anyone that is new to bitcoin and if I have to chose the most important from these 9 then I would go for cash flow since that decide how much you can invest.

the main reason why you assume that it's more profitable to buy Bitcoin in the past is because we're now at the present and can easily trace back what the price of Bitcoin was in the past. What if in the future Bitcoin gets to 10x it curent price? Would you still hold on to your ascertion that the profitability of Bitcoin is only beneficial to earlier Bitcoin investors or that they were more profitable than we are? With simple maths, we can easily depict the difference of profitability of past Bitcoin investors to our own case which is mainly dependent on three variables which are;
1. the amount of Bitcoin they bought.
2. The range of price they bought it and
3. How long they HODLed it before they sold it considering that most of them sold too early.

Iether you're an early Bitcoin investor or one that's buying now, these variables plays the greater role in your level of profitability and I believe thier are lots of current Bitcoin holders that are way more in profit than most earlier Bitcoin HODLers and the basic reason is that they bought more Bitcoin and didn't sell too soon just because they've made a slight profit.

Yes, JJG does provide very appropriate advice for anyone who wants to invest in Bitcoin (especially for members who like discussing or reading his posts). Especially in terms of thoughts or ideology about collecting money into bitcoin. Because it cannot be denied, many people and sometimes me too, think too much when they want to buy Bitcoin. Although basically it is normal to think first before buying Bitcoin, if you overdo it it will definitely end badly.

Moreover, thinking too deeply about when can enjoy the results of Bitcoin investment will certainly dampen enthusiasm for investing, especially for people who are no longer young. So as you said, if have money that is very cold or unused, don't think too much, it's better to just collect it in the form of bitcoins. Because in essence the money invested in Bitcoin will certainly not be lost or suffer losses, but what is certain is that the money invested will still be there and its nominal value will definitely continue to increase. Because it has been proven to date, Bitcoin continues to experience quite significant price increases.

If you say more profitable, I don't think that's the right word. Because current bitcoin investors and also old bitcoin investors, if you look at the price of bitcoin, it is clearly more profitable to buy bitcoin in the past. So if you look at this, it is clear that bitcoin investors who have been around for a long time can be said to be more profitable than current investors. However, if viewed from a scientific context, it is true that bitcoin investors who are just starting out now find it easier to find information about bitcoin investment. Because as you said, we can take the experiences and mistakes experienced by previous investors and use them as lessons for us now.

However, as JJG said, the knowledge we take from the experience of old investors will not guarantee us 100% error-free. This is indeed true, because everything in this world continues to develop, including bitcoin too. Because a simple example like this, stock investment, has been around longer than bitcoin investment. So everyone who wants to invest in shares must be able to avoid mistakes that can cause losses, because there are still many other people's experiences that can be applied. However, the evidence is that currently quite a few people have experienced losses in stock investments due to their own mistakes. So that's what's happening among bitcoin investors right now. Even though can get a lot of information and knowledge about Bitcoin investment, there are still many who can fall into the abyss of mistakes or losses.

So what triggers this to happen? namely implementation.
Because in essence what is difficult is not seeking knowledge, but what is more difficult is applying that knowledge to the bitcoin investment that we make. So even let's say someone is going to invest in bitcoin and hire a great mentor who has experience with bitcoin. This will be useless if the person who hires the mentor does not apply all the knowledge that the mentor has explained to him.

I doubt that I am blaming early bitcoiners for selling, since we can make investment choices and even selling choices, and then we have to live with the consequences of our actions, and surely some folks learn from their experiences better than others.  And, whether someone considers it to be a mistake to sell too much too soon, and yeah the way I am describing it is as a mistake because a lot of people do not realize that they are selling too much too soon until later, and sometimes they make the same mistake over and over and over.  Other folks learn techniques in which they might still be able to sell, but not to sell too much and not to sell too soon.

There are also folks who spent 1- 2 cycles mostly accumulating BTC before selling any... so yeah, some folks recognize the value of what they have earlier than others.

And, yeah, knowledge about bitcoin has changed over the years, but people are still making the same and similar mistakes including NOT recognizing the value of bitcoin, which seems to be part of the explanation why we have so many no coiners and low coiners.  It could well be that somewhere close to 99% of there world's population is comprised of low coiner and no coiners, and no one is going to buy bitcoin for them, they have to figure it out for themselves and take action...otherwise they will remain low coiners or no coiners.


I doubt that we can avoid mistakes.  We have to do the best we can with the information that we have, and sometimes we are going to make mistakes because we might not sufficiently figure out how to tailor our approach to our own circumstances, and so we likely will have to tweak our approach from time to time, since our information might change and also our circumstances might change and we have to make choices about how to balance out our approach to attempt to best account for those changes in information and/or circumstances.

I totally agree with you and I believe if most of us that are currently buying Bitcoin at the moment were in their shoes, we would have also sold part of our holding at the point when we're in 5x to 10x profit. It's nothing to make a big deal out of it but it's now an issue when we've seen the effect of thier action and we're still gambling with our holdings and still selling at any slight profit we've seen or waiting for Bitcoin to get to $100k so we will sell and instead of talking about how to accumulate more Bitcoin which will place us in a good profit, it's now about trading our little Bitcoin or diversification which goes on to shrink our asset.


Sometimes it's best not to take certain actions than after taking the action you now struggle to cope with the effects of your action. Almost all the people who sold Bitcoin way too early and now see Bitcoin at the current price are in a state of regret and psychologically, just like @JayJuanGee earlier said, it's going to be a tough one for them to come back and start buying at a price that's far above what they sold their Bitcoin at. It's even better that they probably sold because they felt they were in profit and not necessarily because they wanted to buy back at a cheaper rate which is what most traders do nowadays.

I believe we who are now the current set of investors are at a better advantage than earlier investors and we can actually learn from the mistakes they've made and ensure that we don't repeat those mistakes.