Many newbies even thought that it's a deflationary currency, not a fixed-supply and currently still a inflationary currency that halves the inflation every four years.
The newbies who "got disappointed" because nothing happened immediately after the halving, should learn the hard way. - That by selling at the current price "in disappointment", they will FOMO again during a surge to $100,000 giving them less units in Bitcoin.
Halving is often associated with a surprise price that will increase many times over and that is the dream of Bitcoin holders, not just beginners but everyone. If you look at 2022 when bitcoin falls to $15k and in 2024 it rises to $73k of course the increase has already occurred many times over and they have to measure it to be a definite comparison in what they expect.
In this halving it may be a little unique because at the time of the halving we were hit by war between Iran and Israel but the price of Bitcoin was still strong enough to stay at $60k so my assumption is that when the war ends we will see a lot of money going into BTC which will make the price Bitcoin will rise again and continue to print a new ATH.
Holding is an action that must be maintained, therefore do not cash out if there is no urgent need for our living needs.
HODL seems to mostly apply to when you have run out of money to buy more. If the BTC price is dipping or just staying flat, then it seems that there should be some additional emphasis upon continuing to buy.. just continue to buy until you have enough or more than enough.. and ONLY you will know when you reached such a point in terms of your own individual factors.. and if you are thinking in terms of long term, then that should help to guide you regarding whether you have "enough" or more than enough.
Getting to fuck you status need not be the ONLY measure, and there are other ways to measure in terms of likely your having gotten to a spot that you have multiples of years of income into BTC, then you are on the right path of getting to fuck you status, even though there can be some controversy regarding how many years you need.. under traditional systems, you would need around 25-ish years of income, yet I am currently thinking that in the ballpark of 12 years of income in bitcoin (using the 200-WMA as your value measurement), may well be enough to reach entry-level fuck you status. Guys who have been in bitcoin for a while have to make these measures for themselves, and hope that they are able to calculate how much is enough and/or the extent to which there can start to be some moves away from strict BTC accumulation.. .. even though surely in the first several years in bitcoin strict BTC accumulation (such as in a practice of aggressive DCA) likely would be the route forward for an overwhelming number of normies and even if their circumstances may well vary, DCA should still fit into any such newbie approach.. whether rich or poor... even though rich have other options that may or may not be as good as DCA... but that's another story.
Also people need to know that there's nothing wrong to take a profit at this current situation since its normal for investor to take something when they need it.
You are talking about trading not investing, and deviating from the topic of this thread which surely should be focused on building your holdings, and you don't build your holdings by selling... .. yeah, sure there might be scenarios in which you have over-accumulated, yet that also is not the topic of this thread..
Not only is taking profits the language of a trader, there is a bit of a presumption that it is good to go from bitcoin to dollars and if dollars is the profits that we need to be in..
I am not going to deny that it is NOT healthy to be 100% bitcoin, so sometimes we have to be careful in regards to making sure that we hold enough dollars for our expenses and so that we never run out of dollars for our expenses and perhaps to be able have those dollars to be able to buy more bitcoin from time to time, but most folks are likely under-allocated to bitcoin and in this thread, we are talking about ways to build up your bitcoin allocation.
What's important is there's still a balance left so they would not missed another good opportunity that they could able to earn once same good situation will happen and bitcoin price would pump again then reach for another new ATH.
yeah, never sell all of your bitcoin, but it is even more ridiculous to be talking about these here current prices as if they might be tops..
In my opinion the price of BTC will continue to rise based on current demand and not just past experience - I wouldn't be at all surprised if the price touches $100k in the next 3 months as BTC market depth suggests this is positive. No investor can be tempted to sell BTC in this market.
Yeah, sure BTC prices might touch $100k in the next 3 months. .and maybe that shows that it might be better to be buying now, if you are able to buy now, rather than having to buy when the BTC prices are in the $100k territories.
Sure.. it could tell us to accumulate more and not to sell, and surely it is better to attempt to be ahead of these kinds of points so that you are not feeling desperate during times in which the BTC price is bouncing within ranges that are historically low.
We cannot completely know what to do, even though we can attempt to try to use history to our advantage, and hope that we are not choosing wrong in terms of how much we are investing or if we choose to change our level of aggressiveness based on any of the moving average indicators, including the 200-WMA.
That's the main thing I want to know that what to do in the period when spot price goes below 200-WMA. It's good time to accumulate Bitcoins rather to sell. If you see past price of Bitcoins then in the long run spot price always recovers no matter how much down it goes.
You still have to attempt to budget, since there is no guarantee that the BTC price is going to end up coming back.
Sure, the odds might be low that the BTC price might not ever recover, but the odds are not zero, so you have to temper your own investment into bitcoin and to balance your cashflow, and if you were already convinced about bitcoin, you might not have any extra money when the BTC price ended up dipping below the 200-WMA because you had already been investing aggressive and/or overly aggressive prior to the BTC price even dropping below the 200-WMA, so part of the reason that it is difficult to know is partly based on your own situation, and if you had been accumulating all along then why would you have extra dollars merely because the BTC price happens to be down.
Sure, you could have some extra dollars coming in during times like that, so you can use much if not most of those extra dollars to buy BTC, yet many times when the BTC prices are very low, there might also be other things going on in which you don't have a lot of extra cash, and whether or not you earn extra cash or there might be some places in which you could draw some extra cash may or may not be possible or you might not be willing to do it. It frequently can be difficult to get into a position in which you obviously have a lot of cash available during those kinds of times, even if you may well recognize them as great opportunities to buy, each of us also have our limits in terms of how much cash we are able to conjur up.
So based on past price of Bitcoin we must not get worry even if price of Bitcoin is going below 200-WMA.
You should be able to have some confidence, but it still remains up to you regarding how much conviction that you have and no one is going to save you if you end up estimating wrong in terms of how you choose to balance your own cashflows. You are also going to be the one who is going to have to suffer if you make the wrong balancing choices.
June 2022 to October 2023, I think that's the same duration when price of Bitcoin goes below 20k and just imagine if somebody has bought BTC at that price then how much profit he is having right now.
Also imagine that you are talking like a trader who tries to time the bottoms and the tops, and yeah a guy might be investing $100 per week, and then during June 2022 to October 2023, he might increase his weekly buys to $200 per week... so yeah, he will be more profitable, but it still takes a long time to build wealth.
There might have been some folks who just heard about bitcoin during that time, yet I doubt that they were backing up the truck and buying bitcoin, many of those newbies were waiting for the BTC price to go to $12k rather than buying in the $16k to $20k prices, or alternatively they waited until the BTC price went higher.. Even though some folks try to talk about how they are killing it, yet normal people do not tend to have abilities to invest like that, and even a newbie to bitcoin, might decide to divide his investment amount into three parts of DCA, lump sum and buying on dips.. so he may or may not go all in with the amount that he decides that he has available, and there is nothing wrong with that, especially if we are thinking and investing like an investor rather than like a trader... and if we are investing 4-10 years or longer, then it may not make a lot of difference if we have several buys that are spread out between $16k and $30k, which can be part of the challenge for anyone establishing their initial stake in an investment like BTC.
Even if you look at Saylor, he has been buying BTC for nearly 4 years, and sure maybe he is starting to feel like he has a decent stake in bitcoin, although he cannot help himself in terms of his using financial instruments to leverage his bitcoin investment... and even normal people could take several years to establish their BTC position, even if they might not be as aggressive as Saylor, but they still could be somewhat aggressive in getting a stake into BTC, but still take a decent amount of time to establish their stake.. 1-2 years or even more might not be unusual.. Of course, I could give some examples, but we have already gone through several different kinds of examples where a guy might take time to establish his position and use lump sum, DCA and buying on dips to accomplish such BTC position establishing practices.
That seems to be the correct conclusion, so long as bitcoin continues to perform.. and surely we have a lot of craziness in recent times with what seems to be ongoing attacks on the ability of normal folks to use bitcoin for transacting, and including the ongoing flow of money into the bitcoin spot ETFs. It is hard to say how much bitcoin's reputation and investment case can get damaged when so much money seems to be getting put into crappy aspects that are questionable whether anyone is making money in such process of keeping the onchain fees so persistently high, so it is costing those inscription/ordinal generating folks a lot of money to keep using the bitocoin blockchain in such way that increased just a couple of days ago at the time of the halvening with the introduction of Runes... .. so many folks are still watching how long the fees are going to stay so high and will there still be opportunities for the blockchain to be used for relatively normal transactions.. as I had many times been mentioning to members that they need to be careful in terms of their generating smaller UTXOs that might come unusable during times like this.. and so then there is either a need to wait until the fees come back down (and surely they should), or maybe figuring out other ways to transact with bitcoin, which might be acceptable, yet less preferable if many of us are forced into having to use solutions that overly rely upon 3rd parties in the custody or transacting of our coins..
As far as ETF thing is concerned, its not something new. Whenever there is something new people rush after that. Remember 2017 ICOs?
ETFs are not the same thing as ICOs.
You are getting distracted into shitcoins.
Fuck shitcoins.
Or maybe you were referring to my comment about runes and the BTC blockchain getting filled?
With the runes thing, there may be some similarities to ICOs, and surely there could be some of the same folks working bitcoin to try to make some money and/or otherwise creating hype, but there are differences as well... so yeah, similarities and differences, and I would be careful to attempt to say that "it is just like ICOs" because then you likely are just getting some kind of a superficial interpretation regarding what is happening.
There was huge money going into ICO and after that we have IEOs then come NFTs and so on. Right now its ETF era and it's normal that people will rush after that. Let's just wait and see how long it lasts.
Oh gawd.. your analysis sucks.
We have the runes thing on bitcoin that are surely like adding shitcoins to bitcoin, and it may or may not last, but it is interfering with abilities of normal people to transact on bitcoin.
and we also have the BTC spot ETFs that are creating additional demand for BTC, and those are opening up channels to most likely longer term investors, but those investors do not hold their BTC, instead the ETF providers hold the BTC...
But both is going on at the same time and they have some affects that differ from each other in terms of having some ideas why folks are involved in them, but there is also some convenience in terms of causing transaction fees to go up, which might cause more folks to want to buy ETFs or to use third party services rather than for individuals to directly hold their own BTC (UTXOs).
There are many folks around who are investing in ETFs but I am one of few who is least interested in this ETF stuff.
There are some folks, institutions and/or governments who would have never been ready, wiling and/or able to invest into bitcoin directly, so the ETF provides an onramp to bitcoin that had not previously been available to certain kinds of investors to get exposure to bitcoin.
I believe that simple Bitcoin investment is better then going for ETFs.
Sure, direct bitcoin ownership is more powerful and better than owning ETFs because you do not own your own UTXOs, and in many ways ETFs seem to have perverting effects on the power of BTC and BTC's incentives and also including what makes bitcoin valuable is the ability to own it directly. So yeah there are some tensions in regards to the existence of the ETFs, but there is no way of really stopping ETFs from happening and for people to use them, whether they end up being a kind of attack on bitcoin might be another story, yet at the same time, they are pumping bitcoin and they are even telling us that they have plans to pump bitcoin more and more and more, so they would prefer NOT to have to tell us about their pumping of bitcoin, but in several senses, those companies have disclosure requirements.. so there is good and bad and hopefully, people are still building on bitcoin's being able to be used and held directly since those investment vehicles are not really using bitcoin in a lot of the self-sovereignty ways that bitcoin remains powerful.
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You know many people are easily carried away when it comes to investing in Bitcoin, they just get in without proper planning and when challenges of life hits, they start selling their Bitcoin to settle them. This is not how to hold Bitcoin for long as it will only keep depleting the already purchased assets. I have been in this situation before, where I have to sell my Bitcoin for something little funds would have solved should I had made provision for emergency funds. Naturally, I don't like borrowing, so when those issues came up, I had to sell my Bitcoin.
Now I have learnt how to add the concept of emergency funds which now make it easy for me to solve such problems without resorting to selling my Bitcoin. I think everyone who want to hold Bitcoin better and for long period of time must work out a way of investing such that their is always emergency funds kept for such needs.
Exactly.. keep an emergency fund that hopefully you will never have to ever touch (except for an actual emergency), and then you have a float and reserve funds that would be available to you and what you would draw from prior to having to touch your emergency funds... so if you have various shortages in cash then you would exhaust your reserve funds and float prior to touching your emergency funds, and if you get to a point in which you are exhausting your reserve funds and float, then you better already be trying to take measures so that you don't have to dip into your emergency funds... which surely should be pretty extreme circumstances before you ever have to touch them, since you should not want to be dipping into your emergency funds, and then an actual real emergency comes, and you have already been fucking around with dipping into your emergency fund... and then you have nothing left to draw from and so the next thing comes dipping into your BTC at a time that was likely not of your own choosing.
