Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 273. (Read 136465 times)

Your statement shows that someone just wants to take profit from his bitcoin investment just because the person feels like taking profit to sort himself out. This is why it is important not to invest all your money in bitcoin so that you will have enough money to take care of your financial needs any time they arise, and not to sell part of your bitcoin investment to sort yourself out. 

that's definitely a wrong mentality that wouldn't allow you HODL long enough to get into a good profit margin. No doubt, it's your investment and you have every right to take your profit or opt out whenever you feel okay to doing so but if you're after getting the best out of your investment, you should understand that you don't just take profit out of your investment because you're in profit. Just so you know, if you're hoping to accumulate Bitcoin for up to a period of four to ten years, there will be several instances when you will be in a comfortable profit region and will still have to keep accumilating more Bitcoin because you know that you've not reached your accumulation goal.

How do you expect to have a good quantity of Bitcoin in your portfolio if you keep taking out profit at every time you're in profit? Even if you intend buying back at the dip like what you're trying to suggest, what's the probability that you won't buy for an higher amount than what you've sold part of your holding for and that if you have to wait for Bitcoin to dip below the amount you sold your holding that such kind of scenario will ever happen? For those that have past thier accumilation stage and have probably reached the level where they are very comfortable with there investment, maybe taking part of thier profit to fix real life shit that will help them live a more comfortable life wouldn't be a big deal but for the average person out here that's yet to get his portfolio ina good shape, selling is never an option. You know of the saying that, there is a time for everything, a time to plant and a time for harvest. If you're harvesting when you ought to be planting and maybe you feel like you can decide to harvest part and allow others to grow, when the real time for harvest finally comes, you will to your regret find out that you have little or nothing left to harvest.

Do you carry out any surveys to know that people are not willing to buy bitcoin when the price is low? So many people have been accumulating bitcoin both when the price was high and low, and they didn't let anyone know because they didn't want to draw unnecessary attention to themselves. Anyone who already knows about bitcoin and has a good income source that will allow him or her to start accumulating bitcoin but chooses to accumulate bitcoin when the price is at its peak doesn't know anything about bitcoin. The person is only investing in bitcoin because of FOMO. But those who are accumulating bitcoin with the DCA strategy and don't have enough money to buy the dip will never buy bitcoin, even though bitcoin is low, because they are accumulating bitcoin with a principle that will guide them in accumulating bitcoin without selling their bitcoin to survive, which is to accumulate bitcoin in the period when money for the DCA strategy is ready, so they will not temper with their reserved fund to buy the dip. For someone to be consistent in accumulating bitcoin when the price is low, they must be financially okay. They can buy 1 bitcoin with a lump sum, but they choose to accumulate bitcoin with the DCA strategy and buy the dip. Buying the dip is not mandatory. What is important is to choose the strategy that will suit your financial strength to accumulate bitcoin and be able to hold it for the long term.

Agree with you. We have to believe that the demand for Bitcoin is gradually increasing but we are able to hold our position?. Can we hold bitcoin according to our expectation? Even if bitcoin is 100k or more, if we don't have bitcoins in our bag, it's no use learning more about bitcoins. I think what we should do as a holder is to collect bitcoins regardless of the price of bitcoins. If the morale of a long-term holding can be increased and Bitcoin can be accumulated accordingly, then surely Bitcoin can become an asset at some point. More or less if it can be collected regularly then the amount of Bitcoin will increase regardless of the increase or decrease in the price of Bitcoin. And for this, the most useful technique DCA will make that goal easier to implement.

This is only natural because Bitcoin's movement has been quite drastic in the last few months without any deep correction, so there is a fear of entering (buying) at this time.

If we already believe it will be different from people who still have a lot of calculations and of course everyone has different speculations.

Personally, I don't care about the continued increase because I believe that in the long term holding Bitcoin will be a big enough profit that I will continue to make purchases if I have the money without caring about high prices like now.

It can be so funny how people tend to make purchases on seeing Bitcoin making an upwards trends rather than buying more aggressively without over doing it when it is in a dip, in my opinion I have considered such people to be pretty much indecisive as regards to what they believe about Bitcoin. However, self conviction and believe has an important role to play in the life of every investors in accordance to their Bitcoin investment journey.
In as much as we aren't discussion much about taken profit, let us not forget in a hurry that there are categories of investors in the market, those who are far gone or probably in their maintenance level and those that are still low coiners, what am trying to say is that the low coiners investors is expected not have anything doing as regards to taken profits by selling part of their investment rather there most concern should be how to maximize every opportunity that shows it's self in the market by buying even aggressively without over doing it in order to have a sizeable worth of Bitcoin. While those that are already far gone in their accumulation yeah can sell part of their investment if they want, in order to put their body and soul together as they watch their investment.

In fact, investors did not get the expected DIP price from this halving - they may have expected a lower price. Increasingly responsible for the demand for BTC and its holdings. But you should take an experience from this that how important it is to accumulate BTC especially for beginners. Older investors weren't tempted to dump their stacked BTC because they knew the price would go much higher, so they were eager to buy more and are still buying.

In my opinion the price of BTC will continue to rise based on current demand and not just past experience - I wouldn't be at all surprised if the price touches $100k in the next 3 months as BTC market depth suggests this is positive. No investor can be tempted to sell BTC in this market.

Many got afraid for thinking that this is already the peak but they forgot to realize that what they said their intention here is to hold for long term. If they are afraid to buy now then this mean that they are not really prepared to hold bitcoin for long term since what they are seeing its current value and they afraid to see a dump since it will affect them so bad. Maybe those people are for trading so maybe for that they should follow their guts rather than gaining a lot of stress for thinking on everything they are not sure especially on their goals. And comeback later on their plan to hold once they learn on how to execute their plan to hold for long term.

Also people need to know that there's nothing wrong to take a profit at this current situation since its normal for investor to take something when they need it. What's important is there's still a balance left so they would not missed another good opportunity that they could able to earn once same good situation will happen and bitcoin price would pump again then reach for another new ATH.

At this particular point, I really don't think it's logical to be timing the market now because as an investor that we are, our primary concern now should have been how much Bitcoin can we accumulate, so as not to be left behind? So if we decide to be timing the market, it's a complete waste of time, because the bull run can start anytime and you will start feeling regret for not buying and accumulating now that is the best time to buy, so in order not to be in that kind of space, it's best we utilize this opportunity by accumulating more Bitcoin through the DCA method regardless of the current price now, because the amount of Bitcoin in your possession will definitely define how profitable you are going be, during the bull season, and another thing we should not forget is, we should only be thinking long term, because it's only a long term holder will definitely reap the full dividend of his or her holdings.

Halving is often associated with a surprise price that will increase many times over and that is the dream of Bitcoin holders, not just beginners but everyone. If you look at 2022 when bitcoin falls to $15k and in 2024 it rises to $73k of course the increase has already occurred many times over and they have to measure it to be a definite comparison in what they expect.

In this halving it may be a little unique because at the time of the halving we were hit by war between Iran and Israel but the price of Bitcoin was still strong enough to stay at $60k so my assumption is that when the war ends we will see a lot of money going into BTC which will make the price Bitcoin will rise again and continue to print a new ATH.

Holding is an action that must be maintained, therefore do not cash out if there is no urgent need for our living needs.

Yea, it is hard to time the market, and I don't think anyone timing the market is the best way for a new beginner to start with. Just as mentioned above by JJG, such new investors should just continue buying to make sure that they are able to build their bitcoin portfolio to a certain height before it is too late using the DCA method, which gives new investors and low coiner the advantage to buy bitcoin irrespective of the price. Any investor that could not buy bitcoin in late 2022 and 2023, before th month of October, will be regretting now that he has missed a good opportunity to buy at the dip then.

Whereas may be they were waiting for a more dip, and it turns out to be that we might not see such price range anymore, till maybe after this circle is over in the next bear market. With the current price of bitcoin, it is not too expensive to start buying or continue buying using DCA method because we may or may not see bitcoin price lower than this since the halving event have taken price. In few months the price of bitcoin will skyrocket, and might become too expensive for those that have not bought now, and that is why we need to take advantage of the price now and fill up your bags.

Many newbies even thought that it's a deflationary currency, not a fixed-supply and currently still an inflationary currency that halves the emmission every four years.

The newbies who "got disappointed" because nothing happened immediately after the halving, should learn the hard way. - That by selling at the current price "in disappointment", they will FOMO again during a surge to $100,000 giving them less units in Bitcoin.

That's absolutely true, many people who are new to bitcoin who hasn't actually witnessed bitcoin halving might be thinking that the halving used to have an immediate impact on bitcoin. I guess some are disappointed right now that what they thought about the immediate impact of the halving on bitcoin wasn't the way they expected. I know many of them might be tempted to sell back because what they are seeing now is not what they thought would happen. But they have to keep holding and rely on bitcoin past history. But anyone who is tempted to sell off because he/she was thinking that immediately after the halving they will see immediate impact will definitely regret doing that 6 months to 1year from now.

Interesting conversation here. Even looking at the charts it's difficult to time the market for buys and sells which is why it is not advisable to sit and time the market because we may never get to catch the market at the right tip. At least it's easy to say that we should have bought Bitcoin since the price went down 10% - 15% below the ATH, but we should try to think into the future. Image the price has dropped a little bit now how do we know if it's not going lower than it is now or has started going higher since the halving has ended? Let's take instances from the last bull run, almost everyone thought 70k was going to hit 100k and stop there. Unfortunately, most persons were caught out of the ride when it started dropping almost to 60k then they switched minds thinking it was a temporary dip and that will go back up within that week so they lost more. What am trying to say is even the most experienced investor lost profits more often. This is why it's always good to not follow the market the way it looks, a minor dip might end up being a bullish trend afterward. Holding long is the only solution now. Timing the market is a bad idea!

Hopefully, you know now, because that was a pretty BIG misrepresentation to say that BTC price was below the 200-WMA, when the exact opposite was true, and the BTC spot price is in the ballpark of 2x higher than the 200-WMA, which surely is not a bad place to be.. it is not overly high and it is not overly low.... yet the current BTC spot price is in the process of ongoingly pull up the 200-WMA.. at around $38 per day currently, and if the $38 per day were to continue at the same daily rate for the next year, then we would end up with about a 40% increase in the 200-WMA over the coming year.. however, one of the safe things about using the 200-WMA as a measure is that it is a lagging indicator.. even while it gives you some sense of long term trends and potential sustainability.  There are no guarantees that the 200-WMA will continue to go up, but so far the lowest its rate of going up has gotten down to right around 20% annualized for the period of June 2022 until October 2023, and that has been its lowest upwardly inclined rate so far in bitcoin's life.


It shows a bit of an unnormaly low period for BTC prices when measured using that kind of a 4 year average price, and we can see from the history that the BTC price had never gone below the 200-WMA, except for short spikes.. but during that June 2022 to October 2023 period the BTC price got as low as 35% below the 200-WMA for a short period at the peak of its lowest point.


Sure.. it could tell us to accumulate more and not to sell, and surely it is better to attempt to be ahead of these kinds of points so that you are not feeling desperate during times in which the BTC price is bouncing within ranges that are historically low.

We cannot completely know what to do, even though we can attempt to try to use history to our advantage, and hope that we are not choosing wrong in terms of how much we are investing or if we choose to change our level of aggressiveness based on any of the moving average indicators, including the 200-WMA.  


That seems to be the correct conclusion, so long as bitcoin continues to perform.. and surely we have a lot of craziness in recent times with what seems to be ongoing attacks on the ability of normal folks to use bitcoin for transacting, and including the ongoing flow of money into the bitcoin spot ETFs.    It is hard to say how much bitcoin's reputation and investment case can get damaged when so much money seems to be getting put into crappy aspects that are questionable whether anyone is making money in such process of keeping the onchain fees so persistently high, so it is costing those inscription/ordinal generating folks a lot of money to keep using the bitocoin blockchain in such way that increased just a couple of days ago at the time of the halvening with the introduction of Runes... .. so many folks are still watching how long the fees are going to stay so high and will there still be opportunities for the blockchain to be used for relatively normal transactions.. as I had many times been mentioning to members that they need to be careful in terms of their generating smaller UTXOs that might come unusable during times like this.. and so then there is either a need to wait until the fees come back down (and surely they should), or maybe figuring out other ways to transact with bitcoin, which might be acceptable, yet less preferable if many of us are forced into having to use solutions that overly rely upon 3rd parties in the custody or transacting of our coins..


The "perfect time" to accumulate bitcoin was yesterday, and the second most perfect time is today... ... hahahahahaha.. but you got the idea, which is getting started remains amongst the most important of things to do because it takes time to get a new thing added to your life (in this case accumulating bitcoin), including some needs to maybe figure out sourcing of the bitcoin and then figuring out budgeting matters and psychology matters..  and the longer that we get some organization and ideas in regards to our consideration of our 9 factors, then the better off we are going to be in terms of attempting to balancing how much BTC to attempt to accumulate and how to do it (including considering our goals in terms of dollars invested rather than ONLY considering BTC targets that surely are going to continue to be quite volatile in the coming 4-10 years or longer).


I don't know if we can figure out BTC's short term price direction merely from looking at a chart, yet sometimes there is seemingly momentum with very little reprieve, yet we cannot really determine at what point the momentum is going to switch over to the other direction.

But yeah of course, we had right around a 19% correction from the $73,794 top from March 13th to our $59,629 bottom from a few days ago.. . but we cannot really know if the correction is done, even though yeah, buys who are buying the dip should not have any problem in recognizing a dip, and anything greater than a 10% dip seems to be o.k.. so maybe there could have been some extra buys at 10% dip, 15% dip and then 17-19% dip, and it may well be difficult to catch the exact bottom, and so now we are back to ONLY around 12%-ish dip if you can see the current prices right around $65k...

So guys who had been accumulating BTC for longer might have some luxuries in terms of trying to strategize various dip points that they might buy more BTC, but guys who are pretty new to bitcoin are better off to just be buying regularly and not stressing themselves out about details regarding how much dip there has been, except maybe to feel some pleasure that since they are a low coiner (or that they are feeling that they are in their earliest of BTC accumulation stages) that they are able to buy some BTC as prices are dipping rather than chasing the BTC prices up, which surely guys who have even been buying in the last 18 months or so have mostly been experiencing BTC prices going up for their whole time in bitcoin, so if they are ongoingly trying to accumulate bitcoin, the extra cashflow from work probably does not feel like enough to really be able to stack a lot of sats (BTC) in the last 18 months or so, even though overall their BTC holdings are in profits, so it feels good, but they still likely do not even have very many BTC if they have been mostly relying on their extra cashflow, even if they have been attempting to stack somewhat aggressively for that whole time (which likely they have not since so many guys were too scared as fuck to be aggressively stacking in late 2022 and even during most of 2023, when they should have had been stacking aggressively, they were mostly scared.. sure not everyone, but most).


In the earliest years, the 200 WMA might not matter too much, except yeah sure there could be some attempts to moderate when extremes are in place.. so for sure when the BTC price is anywhere between 25% above the 200-WMA and as low as 35% below the 200-WMA, those should have had been signs of times to attempt to be even more aggressive in stacking sats than usual; however, on the other end, there can be points in which there could be concerns to stack less aggressively and maybe hold back more fiat for buying on dips, even if some small level of DCA might still be continued during those times, so in 2021, there were periods in which the BTC spot price got to be 3x to 6x higher than the 200-WMA.. and those ended up being tops; however, in earlier times, 2017 and 2013, there were periods that the spot BTC price was 10x to 14x to 17x higher than the 200-WMA, and so it can be difficult to know when the top is going to be in... but some of those ended up being tops, and you can plug in various dates and look at the history of the spot price and the 200-WMA on the site that we already cited.

Excellent! you have realised your mistake.

Apparently, it's obvious that during this period it is quite a good time to accumulate based on our goals or target. Although some investors would say it is not the perfect time, but no time is the perfect time. Looking at the chart it seems the price is at the bottom, buying aggressively can be allowed irrespective of the strategy we are using to accumulate the bitcoin. Simply buy aggressively such that the price is below 200 WMA and buy through DCA when it's above the 200 WMA that's my honest opinion.

I agree with you that they lack doing proper research is the reason why most newbies fall for cheap scam shitcoins. The one that baffles me most is after they are inform about bitcoin and the important, they go for shitcoins rather than investing in Bitcoin. Most at times they fall for such scam due to social media influencers promoting shitcoin and they gave it a thought of trial and landed themselves in buying shit. If only they can see the important of bitcoin from the beginning, they will know that the time they have wasted would have been used to invest more in bitcoin Instead of lavishing it in shitcoins. It is good to eviserge the ending from the beginning. That is what makes  you different from others. Successful people in Bitcoin usually know what they are doing because they have prove.

Most at time newbies are afraid of investing through DCA or buying the dip because hey feel bitcoin is too slow in growth or bitcoin is too expensive and that made them to invest is some sort of shit. Not knowing that a frequent DCA every week for 1month 2month 1 year to 15years or above would yeald a better result than looking for a quick money that is not even quick rather a quick way of lossing more fund.

In this case I do not want to say that the impact for bitcoin does not exist because after all by looking at what happened the impact is still there even though it is only small but on the other hand such things become a natural thing because let alone bitcoin which is only a small part, when the geopolitical impact occurs then all sectors even the global economy is also experiencing problems so don't be too surprised if the impact is also felt for bitcoin. But in this case that's not the point because in my opinion the impact is still there it's just that for now it's not suitable if it's said to be a fall because after all for now bitcoin is only experiencing a correction not a fall that really makes a loss especially with the increase that previously occurred plus a correction of only about $9k or $10k after an increase of more than $50k from the price of $15k some time ago it is not suitable if it is said to be a fall for bitcoin but indeed it could be a correction now to be used as a momentum for us to increase the portopolio that we have.

I know how to read this graph. I made a mistake while writing it up. I should have write it that way, bitcoin spot price is $65k but 200 WMA is still very much down compared to spot price. I think that's the right way to write and I am still open for critics.


So what does June 2022 to Oct 2023 period tells us? Is that a good time to accumulate more Bitcoins? Of course it's not an ideal period if you are looking to sell few of your coins, better HODL and wait for spot price to go above 200 WMA. IMO, such periods are good time to gather more Bitcoins since the bottom price is breached. 

You don't seem to know how to read that website.  Essentially BTC's current spot price is almost double the 200-WMA, at 93.46% higher than the 200-WMA.   Spot price $65,086.  200-WMA $33,642 





The 200-WMA shows what the average price for bitcoin was over the last 4 years, which is mostly considered a bottom, which means spot price can go down to that price, which would be nearly a 50% price correction from the current price.

There were not very many periods in which BTC spot price was below the 200-WMA; however, it happened quite a bit between about June 2022 and October 2023.  The 200-WMA went up from about $22k to $28k during that period of time, but the spot BTC price spent quite a bit of time below the 200-WMA.. which was an unsual time in BTC's price history, so it shows that the bottom price can sometimes be breached.