Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 298. (Read 123745 times)

Well if they only have small capital to used then I think they should not focus to hold since there's nothing gonna happen with them if they only decide to hold the small amount of money since if they calculate the profit they get for long term for sure they can only get less that's why instead of focusing on one thing much really better if they split their investment to half and use the 50% for trying to make your money grow by either you trade it or use it on other options that you think can give you a decent profit. The half is automatically for HODL. For sure people will see the best result if they try to find ways to make their bitcoin grow since this can give much better result especially if they are wise taking those good investment online.

I also know its hard to achieve to get good profits or the passive ones but if we gain a lot of experience especially dealing with those risk for sure we can figure out what's bad and good investment for us.

Personally, and in my own opinion, we plebs shouldn't treat our little/limited capital like it's Warren Buffett's billions that needs to be "diversified". It will slow down our ROI plus it's probably not needed. Diversification is made to protect capital and control risks because their billions has more to lose in every small market move. For us plebs, if we truly want to make life-changing profit, then, only my personal opinion, we should take more risks and concentrate capital to just one investment that we can have strong conviction to HODL long term. If you ask me, it's a golden opportunity to buy and HODL Bitcoin.

I suggest you to focus on Bitcoin for now instead of having a lot of investments. Once you can position yourself well in Bitcoin investment, you can start diversifying. But this diversification in altcoins may be more confusing because there are so many altcoins that we don't know which altcoins can rise. Moreover, it looks like altcoin season is about to start so if you have difficulty choosing an altcoin, you might have difficulty making a profit.

But if you focus on accumulating Bitcoin, your chance of making a profit over the next 5 years could be greater. Moreover, in 4 years there will be another halving and maybe there will be another new ATH for Bitcoin. By preparing a Bitcoin portfolio, at least you have saved in the form of Bitcoin from now on which can provide benefits in the future.

But please remember that when investing, whatever it is, whether in Bitcoin or anything else, you have to use the money you can afford so that it doesn't interfere with you meeting your daily needs because that's what's more important. Investing is highly recommended but you also have to think about meeting your daily needs.

This post that I just made might help you with the idea.  If you know how to use Excel, once you put in your formula you can copy and past the same layout, but just change your formula for other variables so you can see how the numbers work out.


Now look, I will show you.  If I keep everything the same, and the ONLY thing that I change is the BTC price appreciation from 8% annually to 2% annually, then the updated numbers will look like this.  Second example

Date   BTC_Price   Weekly$Amt   $Invst/Yr   RunTotal$Invst   BTC/Yr   TotalBTC   Total$Value
1/14/25   $56,666.10   $10.00   $520.00   $520.00   0.00926742   0.00926742   $525.15
1/14/26   $57,799.42   $12.00   $624.00   $1,144.00   0.01090285   0.02017027   $1,165.83
1/14/27   $58,955.41   $14.40   $748.80   $1,892.80   0.01282688   0.03299714   $1,945.36
1/15/28   $60,134.52   $17.28   $898.56   $2,791.36   0.01509044   0.04808759   $2,891.72
1/14/29   $61,337.21   $20.74   $1,078.27   $3,869.63   0.01775346   0.06584105   $4,038.51
1/14/30   $62,563.95   $24.88   $1,293.93   $5,163.56   0.02088643   0.08672748   $5,426.01
1/14/31   $63,815.23   $29.86   $1,552.71   $6,716.27   0.02457227   0.11129975   $7,102.62
1/15/32   $65,091.54   $35.83   $1,863.25   $8,579.52   0.02890855   0.14020830   $9,126.37
1/14/33   $66,393.37   $43.00   $2,235.90   $10,815.43   0.03401006   0.17421836   $11,566.94
1/14/34   $67,721.24   $51.60   $2,683.09   $13,498.51   0.04001184   0.21423020   $14,507.93

In the second example, I have accumulated more BTC with my $13.5k invested (0.2142302 BTC), but they are worth less (around $14.5k) than they were in the first example (about $18.2k) because at the end of the second period the BTC price is only $68k rather than $120k, yet at the same time, you can see that my amount of dollars invested for the whole period is the same (at $13.5k) in each of the examples.  Now if the BTC price goes shooting up after 10 years, I am going to be better off in the second example as compared with the first, even though the second example might feel a lot more painful during the period of investment because it is not appreciating as much.  

We could also have examples in which the BTC price goes shooting up a lot during these next 10 years, but I have not been able to accumulate very many BTC.  How about I show you a third example of the BTC price going up 20% per year for the next 10 years, but the amount that I invest remains the same?  Look with my $13.5k invested, I have ONLY accumulated right around 0.08509176 BTC in 10 years, but they are worth about $29.3k:

Date   BTC_Price   Weekly$Amt   $Invst/Yr   RunTotal$Invst   BTC/Yr   TotalBTC   Total$Value
1/14/25   $66,666.00   $10.00   $520.00   $520.00   0.00850918   0.00850918   $567.27
1/14/26   $79,999.20   $12.00   $624.00   $1,144.00   0.00850918   0.01701835   $1,361.45
1/14/27   $95,999.04   $14.40   $748.80   $1,892.80   0.00850918   0.02552753   $2,450.62
1/15/28   $115,198.85   $17.28   $898.56   $2,791.36   0.00850918   0.03403670   $3,920.99
1/14/29   $138,238.62   $20.74   $1,078.27   $3,869.63   0.00850918   0.04254588   $5,881.48
1/14/30   $165,886.34   $24.88   $1,293.93   $5,163.56   0.00850918   0.05105506   $8,469.34
1/14/31   $199,063.61   $29.86   $1,552.71   $6,716.27   0.00850918   0.05956423   $11,857.07
1/15/32   $238,876.33   $35.83   $1,863.25   $8,579.52   0.00850918   0.06807341   $16,261.13
1/14/33   $286,651.60   $43.00   $2,235.90   $10,815.43   0.00850918   0.07658258   $21,952.52
1/14/34   $343,981.92   $51.60   $2,683.09   $13,498.51   0.00850918   0.08509176   $29,270.03


There is no problem to figure out ways to increase your income and to decrease your expenses, but it is not necessarily true that you are going to be better off by investing your money in other ways, unless you have some actual specific talent or sure fire way that you are going to make money from the capital that you invest.  

It is true that some people are not going to be able to make as much money by working for someone else, so they may well need to figure out some ways to increase their own income through the use of capital.. so these are not always easy choices, yet the answer is not obvious either because some people will have been much better off just sticking with their current line of employment or even supplementing various kinds of work that they do rather than getting distracted in to other investments that might not necessarily be better.. and we might be deviating a bit from this thread if we are arguing about the ways to increase income and/or to reduce expenses.. including sometimes there may be needs to go to college or to engage in some kind of professional training that might not pay in the short term but it would increase income greatly in the longer term.. a few or several years down the road.

Your goal is actually good, namely having just one asset, namely Bitcoin, which you will accumulate in the long term for 5 years. However, you should also think about other investments or businesses that you can use if you really need it or in an emergency and it would be even better if these other investments or businesses can help smooth or increase your Bitcoin accumulation.
So you should also think about this, because you don't know what will happen to you in the future, you will most likely use your Bitcoins to solve it if there is no other alternative. And my advice is very short and simple, but very useful.

I agree with you, its better to be strong in one asset (bitcoin), than to have so many weak investments. If I have build my bitcoin portfolio at least to maybe up to 5 years of accumulation I can now start think of diversifying but this might be too early in some case especially when i have not  accumulated enough bitcoin, I always wanted to have at least 10 bitcoin before I considered any other investment, but you have also told me I should be prepared for a case where my investment doesn't give any return, and till now I've not actually understood the lesson you are trying to give me in respect to this, I'm building up myself in terms of cash too and I'm still consistent with buying bitcoin with DCA.

I see no problem comparing bitcoin investment to other investments - but those kinds of topics are not very central to this thread, and likely will lead us too astray to go down those kinds of comparison paths  - even though sometimes we can still talk about the role of diversification - even though that also is not the topical thrust of this thread. which like you mentioned Odohu is bitcoin first.. so let's figure out bitcoin first before devolving into considerations in regards to potentially related concerns, but not getting distracted into the related concerns..  therefore working towards keeping our focus upon king daddy, aka my lil precious.


Many people actually confusingly equate volatility to risk, which truly is not the case.

Yes, bitcoin is very volatile and also nearly inevitably going to continue to be very volatile for the next 8-20- years or longer..

Some people like to proclaim bitcoin is becoming more and more stable, which largely is either a bunch of bullshit or wishful thinking or merely spin that is neither true and is not likely to be true in the future, even though they are seeming to want to make themselves feel good about investing in bitcoin.

Sure, maybe once bitcoin gets into the territory of 10x to 100x larger market cap than gold (which would be $5 million to $50 million prices), then maybe it will start to become somewhat less volatile at that point.  maybe?  It is not guaranteed that it will become less volatile even then (which is actually 100 to 1,000x larger market cap from now), but it seems to make sense that 10x to 100x larger market cap than gold would cause more capital to get its price to move.

Another thing is that there are a lot of ways to attempt to deal with bitcoin's likely ongoing, persistence and inevitable volatility... and a decently first way of dealing with it is to recognize and appreciate that it exists and is going to continue to exist.


Sure having a long term mindset and a long term way of dealing with bitcoin's volatility is likely helpful, and even more helpful if BTC prices end up going up, which is not guaranteed, but many of us know that bitcoin still remains a great (if not the best) asymmetric bet to the upside, as you mentioned.


Actually you are correct that either ongoing buying and/or buying on the dip would have ended up being more profitable than just holding since it would have had lowered the average cost per BTC.


Of course, including ongoingly buying.


Yep.. that surely seems to make a lot of sense.  Keep building. and staying focused on BTC, and you likely are going to find that you have more options in the future, even though it could take a while to play out and of course, it is not guaranteed..  and so in that regard, since it is not guaranteed, that should help in figuring out what is going to be an appropriate size to reach and/or to maintain through such likely ongoing process of accumulating and/or maintaining.


That is retarded.

Gold is not safer than bitcoin, and you must not recognize, understand and/or appreciate what bitcoin is if you believe that gold is safer than bitcoin.


It is probably worse, especially if you are a brand new investor.  If you already have them then maybe that would be another story in terms of figuring out if you need to diversify out of them, and of course, stopping investing in those other things and investing into bitcoin is another way of diversifying out of some of your exposure in other asset classes.


Sure, I would not recommend anything close to 100% in bitcoin, even though some people are able to do it.. but starting out somewhere between 5% to 25% in bitcoin could be a reasonable position, yet each person has to tailorize his exposure to bitcoin in accordance with his own personal circumstances.


Again, you must be talking down the road because I see no reason to focus on anything beyond bitcoin and cash in the beginning, and then once you build up your investment portfolio, then you might consider something like land and/or maybe equities.. but gold?  bitcoin serves a similar purpose as gold but better, so I don't see any reason to get exposure to gold unless you already have it then maybe you figure out if you are going to keep it.  But getting exposure to gold seems like a pretty BIGASS waste of time and not necessary, unless you happen to live in a situation or location that people are already accustom in trading in it.. but that seems less and less likely these days... but hey, whatever.  Guys can do what they like in terms of those allocations and when (at what stage in their investment life) they might allocate in some of the assets that are neither bitcoin and cash.   

New investors certainly need to learn about bitcoin before they invest in it. This approach is really needed, especially in this context, they are still new and need guidance to deepen their knowledge about Bitcoin. but with what we are talking about, maybe that is the first step for new investors to dive into bitcoin. Regardless of the adjustment of the money they have, of course they must be able to apply it in each period to accumulate bitcoin because that will make them indirectly enter into long-term investment planning. Bitcoin has a better advantage compared to Gold because Bitcoin has a limited supply and when demand continues to increase we will see a significant increase.

In general, long-term investments are always in demand by many people, especially after bitcoin etf, of course newcomers or new investors continue to come to invest in Bitcoin. So, back to our investment planning, do we really have the inner resilience to remain in our planning for long-term investment?  because often a wrong decision occurs which can stop long-term investment planning. In that phase, whether we are beginners or those of us who have invested in Bitcoin, really strong determination is needed to continue to hold back our BTC ownership from the temptation of the existing lust for profit.

You like to say "yes" but on the other hand you also say "no", however a beginner investor must first understand what bitcoin is and understand at least about basic things related to investment because it is their understanding that will sustain the investment journey they are doing, because if they don't understand at all about what investment is then obviously it is likely that they will experience many losses because their journey is not based on knowledge and understanding, I understand that not all beginners have a lot of understanding about investing because it will only be formed when they already have high flying hours in the process but what I mean is that at least you must have an understanding of the basics that will certainly tell you about what you can and cannot do during the accumulation journey that you have planned.

For other things, yes I agree with you that bitcoin is more recommended to be made as a long-term investment which is indirectly an intermediary that has the potential to bring you to a fairly lucrative financial level in the future, and also for budget issues, of course it is highly recommended to allocate a budget amount that you are able to account for because of the possibility of risks that cannot always be avoided considering market movements that have a fluctuating nature and besides that try that it is a budget amount that will not be used for anything else, so simply put you have to separate between money for living needs, money for emergency funds and money for allocation on accumulation on bitcoin, because not a few also some investors who end up experiencing delays in the allocation for the accumulation of bitcoin when they experience some unexpected situations that make them need money urgently until in the end they are forced to sell some of their bitcoin, and this is the importance of thinking about and having an emergency fund as a precaution before you really start accumulating bitcoin.

Before thinking of investing this is something you must put to mind first how to secure a healthy and safe investment. As an investor you got to be cautious with the safety of your asset. Alot of people has fall as victim in such, in losimg their bitcoin through getting scams or hacked ( using phishing attack and more). And you have said should also be cautious with the type of wallet they engage with, that why most time most users always recommend cold wallet due to the fact is an offline wallet so would be difficult for it to get hacked.

Also is not only getting hack or using the wrong wallet could lead to losen of asset. Forgotten of one security seed phrase could also lead to one losing their coin (bitcoin) because seed phrase not something you just send forgotten phrase for you to be able to access that wallet again Nahhh things don't work that way ones you lose those 12 words (security seed phrase) all yah asset in that wallet is gone. So as you are accumulating more bitcoin, same time focus on the safety of your wallet.

My assumption is strictly based on the fact that those who has Bitcoin in their portfolios wouldn't have gotten it if they have considered having too much knowledge or cautions about Bitcoin reason being that Bitcoin is a new big growing asset that is still giving room for corrections.it is better to have it in your portfolio and learn more about it on your way up,  that is another reason why it should be seen in a long term perspective because it gives investors the opportunity for flexibility even in decision making especially accumulating through your dca method.

One can actually invest in  real estate, gold, bitcoin, land stock and be successful in all of it. When you are this successful and you are ready to diversify in all of these things, you can actually get a portfolio manager to keep track of all your investments, while your focus can just be in the bitcoin, since you don't need to do much about bitcoin investment. All you just need do is buy and hold it. The are people who specializes in portfolio management, you can hand over your other investments to them for effective management and hand over your real estate investments to a real estate Management firm. The point am just trying to make is that your can diversify your investments into many aspects as you deem fit.

Your quite right, what really matters is the hold, some investors has even more funds than others and yet they can't develop the emotional intelligence to apply self control on themselves to hold for long term to yeild better results, some persons prefer to engage in short term investment cause they can't hold bitcoin for long, so it doesn't matter how you accumulate either lump sum or DCA is good, just that with lump sum you buy at a particular point in the market and DCA we buy At different points in the market at a continuous intervals, and with this we accumulate some coins at a lower price than others and thus we are at advantage while a lump sum investor suffers more from market volatility than a DCA investor.  But irrespective of the method of buying, long term holding is what pays off the most.

No doubt, dca strategy has enormous benefits as regards to Bitcoin investment the reason why it dominates the thread, but on the contrary a lump sum buyer can as well be successful in his Bitcoin investment,  in my opinion that lump sum buying can as well leads to significant returns, you can actually set up a portfolio through the lump sum buying and allow it to grow. the very best strategy is any of the strategy that allows an investor to hodl his investment and sleep well at night, whether it is dca or lump sum, the main factor to be successful or not in Bitcoin investment is the ability to hodl long term to take advantage of it's comp youounding value,the right strategy is unique to every investor that is why it is of great importance for any investor to tailor their strategy to their own risk tolerance and financial situation as well as their own conviction level to prevent a situation that could lead to emotional decision and selling too soon.
 My point is that dca is not a must to be successful in Bitcoin investment according to @Fiasem20

I think we don't only need to know how to accumulate bitcoin as early investors, there are other necessary knowledge we need as bitcoin investor like how to properly secure our holdings, the best kind of wallet to use and if possible to use hardware wallets like trezor. In some countries that have tax on bitcoin, it think one needs to also know how tax works and if possible how to maneuver and pay less tax, even exchange fees when you would be moving your asset to a cold wallet, one need to know that he has to accumulate much bitcoin on his exchange wallet then move them when they are much to his desired place of storage (hardware walletsor cold wallet) in other not to pay much fees on moving his asset   and this are examples of basic knowledge a bitcoin investor should have for his own success as a holder.

I've seen many people lose their holdings to phishing links and to scammers cause they are ill educated on how to hold safely, so as we learn how to accumulate bitcoin, let's let's learn safety too.

Now I think I'm getting your point with the last paragraph. If you choose to diversify your asset like spreading your investment, that's your choice and I believe you have plans holding every bit of the assets.
Here is a quick one, getting involved in real estate, gold, bitcoin, land stock is not an easy one like you mentioned cash, bitcoin, gold and land. You definitely need a huge amount to balance your investment.
What I learnt here is never get too  jampack with your investment firstly, even when dealing with crypto for example if holding bitcoin then you should maintain holding bitcoin only. Bitcoin, gold, cash and land stock are just too much for you to keep with, even if diversification of assets is advisable not with so many assets like this, you should at least go for few assets to keep up with.
Secondly if diversify assets is your choice then you don't want to get hookup with any kind of distraction or mistake so you need to have something doing like a multi job to keep up with like business etc. They're alot of business to keep up with when investing cause you will not only invest but you also have needs to settle and it doesn't make sense when you keep withdrawing profit from your little investment to settle needs or to meet up with other investments. I don't expect an investor to act like this with an early investment cause it will only ruined the growth of the investment but as time goes on you start understanding the statics and reaching the target is the best.

I don't think he is assuming things when he said that the block reward for miners will get to zero. I think he is trying to say that after the up coming halving that bitcoin miners won't be getting bitcoin as rewards. Instead they will be getting their reward from transaction fees. It's not just him doing some technical analysis on his own. This is something that everyone who has been in the bitcoin investment for long is quite aware of.

Your suggestion for what should be considered a long term investment in Bitcoin is not bad. It will allow one see various halvings activities and experience market cycles. However, it does not really have to be that long to be considered a long term investment. I am in agreement with JayJuanGee that 4-10years is a good target even though it could be longer. This range is enough for any investors to be able realize a reasonable stash of bitcoin also gauge his level of patience and commitment to the bitcoin buying process. By the present Bitcoin market cycle, the same period will most likely give but bull and bear market which will give the investor clear of how bitcoin price behavior is for each of those seasons.


I don't know how you arrived at this conclusion and if there is any substance to such claim. Are you saying that by 2030 the block reward will be zero? What do you mean by the peak. Or should I assume you are doing some technical analysis stuffs that make you arrive at such conclusion.

Whatever be the case, the most important thing is to buy and hold bitcoin, that is the only way to find out what the future will look like. The worst thing is to sit by the sideline while others are buying and securing their bitcoin portfolio.

In my understanding, it doesn't necessarily mean that someone must have a good knowledge of bitcoin before he or she can start accumulating it. What matters in the bitcoin accumulation journey is for someone to understand that bitcoin is a long-term investment, like 4-5 years before he or she should start accumulating bitcoin, so that he or she will know the kind of investment he or she is starting up and will not expect any profit in the short term. Also, use the money he or she can afford to lose to invest in bitcoin, and understand that bitcoin is volatile, so any drop in its price will not make him or her sell it, even when he or she is at a loss.

You will be able to invest here according to your investment age, and succeed in reaping the benefits. Because the longer your investment is, the more you reap the benefits, it's a fact, not a myth. You think more towards the future and increase the age of your investments. If you have a financial crisis then you quickly move to work in real life, and earn income reduce excess expenses, and continue to invest in DCA method. It is certain that you have to work hard to get success in life. As I have held my investment for more than a year, and I will hold it for many more years to come. Plan Bitcoin investment for a long term of at least 10 to 12 years.