Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 302. (Read 137310 times)

You seem to be presuming too much.  If you sell on the way up, and the price does not end up coming back down, then it does not matter how patient you are.  We have had a lot of those kinds of examples in bitcoin's history and we are going to continue to have those kinds of examples in which people are selling and expecting to buy back cheaper... so do I need to list the many examples of that? 

Do you really believe that it is a good idea to sell some of your bitcoin when you don't have enough in the first place, and then just wait it out?  Sounds retarded to me, especially if you have not yet reached a status of over accumulation and especially with a paradigm-shifting asset like bitcoin that still seems to be in its earliest of adoption phases, and when the largest wealth redistribution known to mankind is in the midst of happening, why would you want to fuck around trying to trade that unless you have already assessed that you have enough or that you have too many?

You can do what you want if you are of the belief that patience is the solution to some diptwat who sold too much too soon.


It is a bad idea and a bad practice, but you are free to do what you like.  No one is stopping you, but if you try to argue that it is a good idea then you are first not even in the right thread for such topic, and you also are not likely engaging in good kinds of long term investment practices, especaily when it comes to BTC.


Sometimes if guys sell too much too soon, and they get opportunties to buy back, they will need to figure out how to not get too greedy, and it is largely a losing game to try to accomplish the buy backs, and surely it is better to make sure that your fees and/or taxes are covered, and to me it seems that the one of the ONLY ways to really ensure success with these kinds of tactics is to be a professional trader(gambler) who knows how to make appropriate hedges of his bets, or the more realistically practical way is to make sure that you have enough or more than enough BTC when you sell any so that if you end up selling any, you have already figured out that you are not selling too much too soon, so you are not necessarily planning (or expecting) to be able to buy whatever you sold at cheaper prices.

So, for example, if your goal is to get to fuck you status.. and you consider fuck you status to be able to passively withdraw $6,666 per month on a sustainable basis, but you are torn about which metrics to use because if you use traditional measurements that include a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, then you would need to have 61 BTC to reach such status, but if you use some more advanced metrics that involve a BTC withdrawal  rate of 10% per year, then you would ONLY need 24.4 BTC.

So you may well be torn about whether fuck you have enough coins to reach fuck you status, especially if you might have a number of coins that falls somewhere towards the bottom of the range versus being at the top of the range which is more reassuring.  So in any of those cases in which you have somewhere between 24.4 BTC and 61 BTC or even higher quantities of BTC, you could reasonably conclude that you have enough BTC or you have more than enough BTC, and you therefore would be able to feel more free to start to sell some of your BTC and/or to fuck around with waiting for the possibility of buying back lower from whatever reasonable amounts that you end up selling because you are within a kind of range in which there are ways to calculate that you have enough or more than enough BTC.  And, if those valuations are made based on bottom prices (such as the 200-WMA) rather than current spot prices, then the calculations are going to be more accurate and/or reasonable than  a guy who might have 10 BTC and who is calculating that he has enough based on his on criteria, yet based on BTC spot prices.

A lot of guys make those valuation calculations based on spot prices and then they end up selling too many BTC too soon and then they also might end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon and they don't have enough BTC(or money) to really live off of their stash under their own stated criteria.. and it seems kind of dumb to me to conclude that you have some kind of an ability to live off your BTC stash but you are eating into the principle, and you don't yet have enough to buy a Lambo or whateve other premature excitement that you want to exercise.

I doubt that a guy who has those similar goals of wanting a sustainable $6,666 per month income, and ONLY has somewhere in the ballpark of 10 BTC has the luxury of concluding that he has enough coins or more than enough coins.  He needs to get into a proper range of over-accumulation of BTC before he might start to sell or shave off some of his coins..... and of course, each of us needs to to come to our own calculations regarding what our goals might be and figuring out that we have not sold too many coins too soon or concluded that we are richer than we are merely based on BTC spot price that we know to be quite outrageously volatile. .. and why should any of us want to spend a good amount of time to accumulate a decent BTC stash and then convert it into dollars because we want it to be more stable.. but then we no longer have a sufficient amount of bitcoin.. which is the place that our value should mostly stay.


This part sounds right, but your overall response seems to be flip-flopping.


This part is correct too.  Maybe I just misunderstood what you were saying earlier?

Exactly, when you sell and indeed to buy back at a cheaper price you might end up not buying back because of so many reasons, which we cannot predict the outcome of what would happen by tomorrow. If you sell to buy back, it destabilize the purpose of investing and increasing your bitcoin portfolio. Patient does not have any role to okay here, because you are waiting for a time that you don't know when the price will dip for you to buy back, and you keep waiting hodling fiat that is depreciating in value.

Another reason is that there can be a scenario that will play out financially, that can make you spend from the cash with you that you intend to use to buy back, and when the dip will come, you might have little cash left to buy, which you will regret it. Patience is for long tern hoers will are accumulating of maintaining their bitcoin portfolio for the future, and not for people that think they are smart to sell and buy back.

I totally agree with you. except you've reached a stage where you can boldly say, I'm at the peak of my investment and want to sell off my holding iether to upgrade my standard of living or you've gained that level of freedom that can put you im a position to fuk out of making an investment at all,  whatever comes outside of that as a reason to selling your holding should be sorted out with the emergency funds. It's even better you have special funds set aside for the purpose of buying when the market is at the bearish season that selling part of you holding for that objective. Every decision you're going to make as it regards when you even think of tempering with your investment is in phases and all the theories and methods that have been regularly outlined in this thread is not for everybody but relates for some people and it's just okay to choose which methord that works well for you based on your current Bitcoin accumulation stage and how much you want to accumulate at a particular point in time.

It's not everybody that should talk about selling and thier are others that aren't even buying now but are just waiting for Bitcoin to get to a particular price which is their set out profit point and you don't want to start comparing yourself that's still not strong and have as little as $500 worth of Bitcoin in your portfolio. Those that have reached the range of the position where they are in profit can possibly think about selling but if you're still at the stage where you're yet to have a balanced and good amount of holding, don't even waste your time thinking on the need to sell, like @ gunsan said earlier, there is a lot of uncertainty involved in selling your holding as a methord that will help you accumulate more. To be a safer side, any money you've used in Buying Bitcoin should never go back to fiat untill you've reached you goal, of thier is a need to buy more during the bearish season, you can make it a necessity to find special funds that will work well for that.

The uncertainty in this step is of course if they don't have the patience to wait, but if they are patient maybe they can buy it back at a cheap price. But selling to be able to add BTC by accumulating at a low price is often not in accordance with our expectations. Meaning that after they sell, the price actually goes up and at the same time they cannot control it so they buy back at the highest price, which will harm them in paying trading costs. And also their targets were really not achieved.

For this reason, I am more interested in continuing to hold and accumulate bitcoin at low prices with reserve funds, therefore reserve funds are really needed to take advantage of the opportunity to buy on the decline. Selling is certainly not a good principle for someone if they are planning an investment in the long term but they change their mind by selling and buying again which can turn things into quite a mess.

We don't need to know all of the specifics in order to attempt to assign realistic probabilities that we believe to be the case at the time that we make the prediction and with the information that we have at the time that we make the prediction.

Of course, if we are predicting 10 years out, then it takes quite a long time to find out which one of the scenarios ends up playing out and the one that plays out ends up becoming 100% and the others become 0%.. but we don't know until it happens.

Surely, we can run the same experiment with a shorter-timeline, and frequently we will see that even the scenario that we considered most likely to happen ends up not happening, but then surely if we divide them up into enough subdivisions, we might still see that we can group some of them and see that we might be directionally correct, but just not correct about the exact number.

Also on a 10 year timeline, there could be some significant happenings that end up contributing to our needs to make considerable changes to our numbers in certain ranges that we had previously selected. 

Let's go back to my original prediction.

Let say for example that in the next 6 months, bitcoin prices go to somewhere in the ballpark of mid $100ks, but then they spend the next 6-9 months bouncing around between $12k and $180k, so then those subsequent facts that were not known or realized at the time that I made the prediction would likely cause me to change some aspects of the prediction, even though I am still stuck with what I had said earlier, I can still revise my prediction for that future date that has become 9 years rather 10 years.. but then at the same time, I could also stick with my earlier numbers and conclude that either not enough time or enough significant events had occured to cause me to tweak my numbers.. and surely, since I was pretty specific and comprehensive in my numbers there are likely going to be some of the ranges that I might want to change or tweak at some point between now and 10 years from now.. and surely when we get to be around 8 years down the road, we are likely going to be moving closer to one or another outcome in which all of the others might either no longer seem relevant or maybe their numbers would go down to very low amounts based on likelihoods changing quite significantly.

For sure if the BTC price were in the range of $2 million to $10 million 8 years from now.. let's say that it is mostly bounding between $4 million and $6 million between 7 and 8 hears from now.. so then at that point, it would seem a quite waste of time for me to maintain such granular breakdown of the prices between 1) less than $10 and between $500k and $1million and the various points in between. I could probably reduce those 8 categories into 2-3 categories and while at the same time attempt to get more specific on categories 9, 10 and 11...

and this is not playing around with models and trying to be correct, because in the end, who gives any shits about whether I am correct or not, since my correctness hardly matters as much as some of the preparations that I might make that attempt to account for all of the possibilities in either price direction from whatever place I am at in the current moment, and I can create my plans and continue to execute my plans in such ways that attempt to continuously account for various scenarios in either price direction.



I personally believe that you are continuing to assign too much weight to some kinds of presumptions that the BTC price has to go up, and yeah, sure my base case is also that BTC price is going up forever, laura.. but still, it is neither inevitable and it is not even likely as high of a percentage as you might compromise and suggest that it is ONLY 98% rather than 100%.. and so even though you are free to believe and do whatever you like, I still think that you are living in a fantasy land if you are suggesting that the odds of up are 99% and the odds of down ar only 1% or whatever other seemingly outrageously biased framework you are maintaining in your thinking about the matter.

Yeah, sure I understand that many of us have hard times NOT thinking in black and white, because ultimately when the future ends up happening, some outcome will have happened to the exclusion of all of the other outcomes, but then we still might need some nuance in terms of how we outline the potential outcomes, whether we are talking 10 years down the road or whether we are just dealing with BTC price dynamics in a cycle by cycle basis.

Yes, I agree that bitcoin is amongst the best if not the best investment that we can make, and so in that sense it is an asymmetric bet to the upside in which there are great odds of ongoing and persistent upside performance, so the most that we can lose is 100% as long as we do not engage in leveraging and other forms of gambling/trading.

But having so many favorable aspects, any of who expect to be able to profit from our bitcoin, we have to be able to stay in the game and to balance our exposure to account for decent number of scenarios, whether short term of projecting further out, such as 10 years or longer.


Ok. sure, you can account for what people say, but in the end you have to figure out what you are going to do and to assign your own probabilities to a variety of scenarios.. whether we are talking about 2024 or 2030.. otherwise what are you doing?  who are you following?  People say all kinds of stuff that may or may not be very well thought out, and even $100k within 2024 is currently seeming a bit bearish.. same is true with the $1 million by 2030.. but whatever.. I don't have any problem accounting for what people say and what might be their various bases for what they are saying.


This thread is about price.


Ok... and if you consider yourself to be an investor rather than a trader, then where are you at in your investment journey?  Are you in your accumulation phase, or have you gotten enough.. and if you feel that you have enough, then sure, there are likely several kinds of considerations in regards to managing your BTC holdings.. including where you might be holding all or most of it, and then perhaps if you might have some BTC that you keep in hot wallets so that you are potentially using it from time to time.. .. and if you are not at a point of using your BTC you still might move your BTC from time to time in terms of places that you might accumulate it and then where you might later move it in terms of holding some of it or most of it in cold storage..


We have been $70k and supra $70k for the last couple of weeks, and so you are not being very adventurous there.. and surely it seems that you are just suggesting BTC prices will stay in the same ranges that it has been .. which yeah, sure that is fair enough since the halvening is only 3-ish weeks away.. .. and I frequently consider one of the safest predictions is to stick with the current price, even if there could be some variation.. give or take 5-10% or perhaps more.


Sounds pretty bearish.. but hey.. whatever.

I would suggest $120k to $180k in 2024 and then reassess from there to see (or verify) if buy support is able to keep up.


Also pretty bearish.. It seem that prices in 2025 are going to be higher (at least the cycle top likely to be in 2025), and so the bearish cycle is not too likely to come before 2026.. but still anything can happen.. .. and so maybe the cycle low might end up coming back down to challenge $100k-ish.. but not necessarily go back into 5 digits..

And, hey don't get me wrong.. I hardly give any shits.. I am just suggesting what I consider to be fairly likely scenarios.. which maybe are only in the 10%-20% range, but they still would be considered as my own base scenario.. .. even though financially and psychologically I am ongoingly prepared for BTC prices to go in either direction... that is part of the reason that I still have buy orders down to $20k-ish even though I consider it unlikely that anytime between now and the end of 2025 we are going to have BTC prices less than 20% from the 200-WMA.. and the 200-WMA continues to move up.. which you can see in my entry-level fuck you status chart and also in the sustainable withdrawal tool.


You hardly can claim to be bullish, and surely, I have no problem with considering and maintaining conservative financial preparations.

When I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, my hope was to be able to average something like a 6% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), yet of course, the first 3 years of my being in bitcoin included a lot of negative and/or flat price performance, so it may well be questionable the extent to which BTC was going to be able to meet such hopes.. but with any investment, we frequently will need to prepare for down periods, and surely if you look at the charts, by the end of 2015, there started to form decently good on-the-ground evidence (price performance) reasons for hope and recovery of the prices to go from being in the negative to at least break even end even starting to be positive, and surely the period between November 2015 and May 2016 also seemed like a pretty long period of just waiting to see if there might be some abilities for my portfolio to go into profitabilities, and so it can take a while and there can be some value in terms of NOT establishing unrealistic upside expectations. and/or even taking those upside expectations for granted...

So sure in some sense you are way too bearish in your 10-year prediction (also considering that to be around 50% gold's market cap**), but at the same time, you are too narrow in your description regarding where you expect the BTC price to be.. 

** - a little side tangent.. BTC is about 1,000x more valuable than gold, yet it is currently around 1/10th gold's price.  Sure it could take 50-200 years or longer for these prices to play out, but still anyone who at least recognizes the way the markets are pricing these assets should be able to recognize, appreciate and/or take advantage of such likely ongoing arbitrage opportunity.


It is good that you are trying to grapple with the various scenarios, and I surely understand that sometimes the descriptions could end up becoming a bit confusing - so yeah, I am not trying to be overly harsh on you or any of the other guys if maybe sometimes my communication of the ideas might not always be clear or easy to understand.

We are not always going to agree, either.. and sometimes the presumptions might not be great or the examples might be read for making a point than what I might have had been attempting to make..

If you don't agree with some of the presumptions or if you believe that there might be some better or more accurate comparisons, then surely you should feel free to present those kind of ideas.

There can be some advantages in terms of attempting to standardize some of the examples, even though with any example, guys are likely to NOT follow the examples with exactness, and they are likely to deviate from the examples for a variety of reasons including possible irregularities in their cashflow or their expenses, or even sometimes, they might decide that they want to try to trade some kind of a price move and sometimes they might get lucky and other times they might regret some of the ways that they might deviate, yet we learn from our own ways of putting these kinds of ideas to practice... .. So even though personally, I would not want to get into talking about all the so many ways that guys might deviate, I tend to prefer trying to stick with some of the more sound of practices that might end up showing differences between whimpy and aggressive approaches, and even when a guy actually goes to apply his own approach from one perspective or another, he may well realize that he might have had gone overboard in one direction or another.. so then he might learn from his own mistakes, but hopefully mistakes that are not so bad as to take any of us out of the game.. since it is better that we might make some small mistakes rather than ending up having to start over because we end up losing most or all of our bitcoin.


That is one of the great things about bitcoin, and surely I frequently recommend that guys try to be as aggressive as they are able to be in terms of accumulating bitcoin, there still is the practicality of the matter that we might have limitations in terms of how aggressive that we are able to be in terms of our own financial/psychological resources, and we also might find that we have to go through some steps of getting our finances and psychology in order prior to becoming more aggressive, so in that regard, it likely would be better to make sure that we are not overdoing our level of aggressiveness, and no one is going to feel sorry for us or help us out if we end up screwing up and doing more than we should have had done.. so in that regard, we might want to consider that whenever we choose to engage in some levels of risk, that we are both recognizing the risk and ready, willing and able to accept the consequences if some of the risk-taking that we employ does not play in our favor... and so sometimes we might be tempted to play around with some ways to try to get more BTC than we might be able to get by more normal and strict DCA ways... and so then if we lose 1% to 5% of our BTC, we might consider it worth it.. but sometimes it is better to just not go down the risk taking mode until you have gotten to a certain BTC stack size through more traditional, normal and strictly conservative ways.. and then once your stack is of a significant size there could be some ways that a bit can be shaved off for extra experimentations.


Yeah, some members might have more financial abilities than the hypothetical guys and other members might have to divide the number by 10 in order for the hypothetical to be realistic or to make sense in comparison to their own circumstances.


These might not be easy choices for guy2 because once he heard about and figured out bitcoin enough to want to invest into it, he may well want to aggressively invest into it, and maybe he even wants to get his bitcoin investment to become 25% of his current portfolio size, and if his current portfolio size is $150k, then 25% of that would be $37,500, but he really ONLY has around $200 per week of investible income that is coming in, so whether he just starts to DCA into BTC using the totality of that $200 per week or he takes from his current portfolio, these are dilemmas, including that many guys do not want to get taxable events upon merely moving value around that they believe that they are not actually realizing the gain, even though it becomes taxable.. and also if he has been investing through both employer matched accounts and tax advantaged accounts, then he might have some dilemmas about how to get bitcoin exposure. .. .so he would have to be particularly motivated to get BTC directly in order to forgo the tax deferred status of the accounts.. and the employer matching.. 

And, sure it could be the case that we are talking about a guy who does not have any employer matching and/or tax deferred status on the accounts, so it would be easier for that kind of a guy to just move his 200 per week from his traditional investment and into bitcoin.. so then if he is buying BTC at $200 per week, it is still going to take him more than 3 years (around $10.4k per year - and $31,200 after 3 years) to get up to $37,500 invested into BTC.. and in the meantime, both the size of his total investment portfolio and also his BTC value would have changed through that time that he is investing into BTC at $200 per week. and he might start to feel that he needs to invest, 4-5 years into bitcoin at that rate before he starts to feel that he is at a proper BTC allocation level, even though he might value from how much he is putting into BTC rather than how much it is worth,

and if BTC continues to outperform traditional assets like it has historically done, then he will end up having way higher than 25% allocations into bitcoin.. which surely, I personally don't have any problem with letting your winners ride rather than letting an overperformance of bitcoin to deter continued investment into it. at least until reaching the initial investment allocation targets.. and then also once he might start to feel comfortable with his having had reached his allocation target, then at that point, he might revert back to diversifying what he is investing into - even though his thoughts on the ideas of how to invest and how to diversify might have had changed after he presumptively spends 3-5 years investing into bitcoin at $200 per week... yet when it comes time for him to reassess his investment approach, he is going to end up being informed by his likely having had looked into BTC and also reconsidered investment matters in the prior 3-5 years.


There surely are going to be personally circumscribed parameters in regards to how aggressive a guy really can be, so in that regard, I still think that the most important factor just ends up being putting time into the market and just continuing to plug away, whether you are able to do the higher amounts of 15% to 25% or maybe you are not even able to do 10%, but you still keep plugging away and doing what you can, and live your life in the meantime.. and if you end up putting lower amounts, you likely are going to realize that it is going to take longer, but you may well not really have much of a choice anyhow in terms of speeding up the matter... and so let's say that you are carrying out certain kind of jobs that pay you $2k to $3.5k per month.. so you are feeling o.k. about that and you are able to reasonably stack sats with that level of income.. but then you realize that if you spend 12-18 months attending some kind of a professional program, then you could increase your income up to double of what you are currently making and perhaps even more down the road... but the program will likely cost money and you might have to cut back on your current job.. perhaps even completely quitting your current job.. so those are choices that guys have to make. and there might not even be certainty that they will be able to increase their income by as much as they believe.. or there might even be higher and more lucrative opportunties that might come from certain kinds of training and/or professional experience paths that guys might choose to go down.


Hopefully you have your ratios correct.. since you are planning to hold long term for half and trade with the other half.. which we are not advocating here.. so you have found your own short-cut and attempt to gamble with part of your BTC holdings, and hopefully it does not screw you up in your BTC accumulation journey.. especially since it seems that you are barely in bitcoin for a year and you are cannot resist the idea but to trade half of your stash.

And also your second half of your stash, you are barely even thinking in terms of 4-8 year investment time horizon.. so unless you have some specific reason to shorten your investment timeline, I doubt you are even thinking in long term time lines with either portion of your stash..

And, sure in the end, you are free to do whatever you like when it comes to your BTC accumulation strategy and your supposedly long term plans that do not really sound like long term plans but instead plans to trade one cycle and then the next cycle.


You seem to be conflating the ideas of lump sum and buying on dips.  They are not the same thing.

You seem to actually be buying on dips, but you are calling it lump sum because it is a larger amount than your DCA amount.

A more clear understanding is having a lump sum or coming accross some extra money and then deciding if you are going to invest right now.. at current prices... If you decide to hold some or all of it for buying on dips then that is buying on dips, it no longer falls into a category of lump sum.

Sure, you can use whatever language you like and describe things however, you like, but if you are describing buying on dips as lump sum, then at that point you have to know or figure out what the fuck is lump sum, and it is not the same as buying on dips... so then what are you going to do in order to describe an actual lump sum situation?

The idea of front-loading an investment could apply to any of the BTC accumulation methods of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips, since front-loading is a kind of practice to attempt to invest more than you otherwise would because you might not have a lot of confidence that the BTC price is going to go down during the period that you are employing the front-loading, so in that sense, if you are front-loading yourBTC investment, you are trying to put some additional preparations into the possibility of UP than you otherwise would do.. and so sometimes someone who is new to BTC, they might feel that they do not have enough BTC, so they might purposefully go out of their way to front-load their investment into BTC in order to attempt to make sure that they are prepared for up, just in case.


hahahahaha.. This is a good point.  Each of us has to make sure that we are taking responsibility and figuring out our own allocation and investment into bitcoin in terms of our own assessments of our financial/psychological situation and our sense of the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis.


You are correct that after 10 years you would have had invested right around $24k.. so that would not be a bad target for anyone to consider, and surely over 10 years there could be variance in the amount that he is able to invest, but if he is at least shooting for $50 per week, then he is on track, since after 1 year he would have had invested $2,600, and so then after 10 years he would have had invested $26k.. .. so then the next question would be how well might his investment perform over that time? 

There are bearish, bullish and maybe various scenarios in between, so as we have done previously, we could create various projections that show each of the various scenarios, even though we are not exactly going to know which one of the scenarios ended up playing out until we get 10 years down the road.. yet we can continue to monitor where we are and the extent to which we might be over or under performing expectations... and part of the value of maintaining somewhat conservative expectations likely relates to better psychological results that would likely come from overperformance rather than underperformance.. and if we fear underperformance, then surely we can choose to invest less or invest in a way that we are not creating too many overly optimistic frameworks... which then also brings us into both our choice to invest in the first place and also what we choose to invest into (presumptively bitcoin in the spirit of the subject matter of this thread).


Wow wmaurik!!   You seem to have even a shorter timeline than FinePoine0.

Both of you are failing/refusing to appreciate the power of a long term investment, which is 4-10 years or longer, and there should be emphasis on the longer rather than barely fitting into the definition because you are wanting to play the waves.

What is it exactly that you need the BTC for?  You are wanting to get BTC profits in order to invest into something else, what is it?

Are you wanting to consume?  Are you looking at getting into real estate? or to invest into other stuff?  What is it?

Why are either of you able to recognize that 4-10 years or longer is not attempting to play the waves and to get in and out of bitcoin or whatever it is that you are planning to do.

Think about it..   why are you into bitcoin?  for fiat gainz?

Think about another thing... why is that the minimum investment time horizon 4 years?  that is a whole cycle and should help to point out that we should not be getting into bitcoin in order to play the cycles.

Now let's say that there are some of us who are actually going to want or need the money that we are putting into bitcoin in less than 4 years, and sure we could do that but we would be trading rather than investing, and there are some chances that our attempt to play the wave is not going to work out. .but sure, we could try to play the wave .. if we are willing to recognize that the price might not move in our preferred direction. .whether we are shooting to buy a house or invest in a business or maybe we just happen to be an older person who may well need the cash in terms of health expenses that might come in older age.. so we are wanting to stay liquid and we cannot commit to at least 4 year investment... then we might not want to get into bitcoin, and if we do get into bitcoin on those terms then we likely would be investing less rather than more since we are more likely trading (or trying to play the wave) rather than actually investing.


Well, at least you wmaurik have potentially been in bitcoin longer than FinePoine0 since you have been registered here for 9 years, so there may have had been some time that you have stacked a sufficient amount of BTC.. but yeah, it could be that you made a lot of mistakes too.. yet FinePoine0 has not even been registered on the forum for a year, so can we even speculated that he has much of a good plan, unless he had been able to front-load his BTC investment a lot, but it seems to me that he is largely in a mindset of figuring out ways to play the wave, and he has a plan to play this wave and a plan to play the next wave, and sure maybe he will just continue to try to play each wave, and it can be quite questionable if that is either a very good strategy or that it is even within the theme of this thread.. it is almost like he is talking about trading rather than investing.. even though sure guys can sell whenever they want, but his somewhat vague reference to what he is doing seems to be a bit of a deviance and/or distraction from a kind of longer term thrust of what kinds of BTC accumulation approaches that we might be trying to consider in this thread.


Of course, there is emergency, reserves and float.. so there can be some advantages in regards to thinking about how the categories differ.. and so if you are using an emergency fund because you are trying to avoid having to tap into your bitcoin, then you might use reserve funds to try to avoid having to tap into your emergency fund... and yeah, of course, there can be questions regarding how much to keep in each, and there would be flexibility, and it would seem imprudent and/or overly risky for guys to not have at least 3 months worth of emergency funds.


Exactly.. Selling and expecting to buy back cheaper (to increase your BTC stash) contains a lot of uncertainties, and seems so easy in theory, but not as easy in practice.... so then one of the main logical solutions is not to sell any of your BTC unless you are expecting to not be able to buy it back.. so then that means that you either have enough or you have excess... it is difficult for a bitcoin newbie to get to a position of having enough or excess bitcoin, but if a bitcoin newbie reaches a status of having enough or too much BTC, then he has more options regarding how to treat his BTC holdings.

so that also means that if the goal of selling your BTC is to be able to get more BTC, then that makes less sense than just continuing to buy BTC.. so that if you conclude that you don't have enough, you just keep buying until you have enough or too much.

I understand what I am saying does not make sense to some people, especially those who really believe that there is some value to try to sell BTC in order to buy back more, and so they are free to employ such strategy, which has questionable odds of success.. especially if it ends up getting the guy out of the buying and accumulating mindset.. which truly is the most assured way to actually build a bitcoin stash to high amounts.


Yep.. the BIG opportunity seems to presume better places to put money than bitcoin and/or to use bitcoin profits for such purposes, rather than perhaps getting the money for "Big Opportunities" from other places.

Of course, when guys are young, they are likely going to come across opportunities and also sometimes need capital to get into certain kinds of deals/arrangements... but that still might not mean it would be a good idea to use bitcoin proceeds for these kinds of matters, yet at the same time, everyone is going to have to make these kinds of choices for themselves in terms  of both balancing their finances and balancing where they have allocated their investments, whether it is time, energies and/or monetary value.


If you have a long term investment plan, I don't know if you need to have a specific goal - since you seem to be suggesting that there is a need to get in and then to get out of the investment... as if there is a better place to put the money.

Sure, if you get up to a certain size BTC stash, then you can start to withdraw from it, live off of it or use it to supplement or replace your income.

If you are building your BTC to try to reach a kind of fuck you status goal, you cannot be completely sure how long it is going to take to get there and you might not even be sure about whether you have gotten there are not, until you start to get close to getting there.  You cannot necessarily establish the specifics in advance, even though you likely have some ballpark ideas, such as getting up to $2million in terms of value of BTC stash.. but then if it takes you 15-20 years to get to that point, you might have to consider if that amount is still correct or consider whether it needs to be adjusted, in either direction.. and also in terms of valuating BTC and other assets and/or currencies that you might have in you total investment portfolio.

you're right, one should think of withdrawing only when their have gotten to their accumulation goal ( or fuck you status). Though everyone with their accumulating goal . But if yah holding plan is just for few months or a year, I won't actually call that long-term investment but short-term investments or rather trading , The reason I found long-term investment more pleasing, is that give one time to accumulate more bitcoin in their portfolio, and also the chances of one selling Their investment ( longer-term) in loss is pretty loww. Because their mindset is already fixed for long-term holding and no matter the dip they may encounter while holding , they won't see any need to panic and sell but instead take it has their advantage to accumulate more bitcoin using buying the dip and DCA strategy. And we all have this believe that bitcoin would keep on growing ( even though there's no any guarantees ) , but bitcoin as already proven itself that is a project filled with the potential of growth.

In as much as we are not discussing about selling here, that your strategy is more like a trading strategy, and the reason why you said you will be selling is not appealing and you are more like gambling than investing and it doesn't make you a hodler, don't forget that the market is filled with uncertainty and no one can determine the level of any bearish trend that you are anticipating, and I think there are better reasons why one should sell parts of his or her investment especially when they are already far gone in their accumulation.

To me I actually think that having an investment goal is quite appropriate because as common man that just want to secure his or her future true Bitcoin, he just have to accumulate Bitcoin true the DCA method still he is satisfied with his or her current holdings, so when that target is met, the next question he should be asking himself is when is he willing to sell, like the numbers of years he is willing to hold or the amount he would be selling if the price of the asset in his possession reach that particular amount, so to me, investment goal should be made a priority, like if you are buying Bitcoin for retirement purpose, it's still good, as long as you have a specific goal in mind, because not having a specific goal in mind sometimes makes you act confused concerning your investment sometimes, because you don't have a specific vision before investing.

IMO I think everyone is left to figure out how long they would want to hold their bitcoin, and you referred to something like not everyone would have the patience to hold for that long(and in this context 10 years), I think the idea here is to use our disposable income to invest and this is money that we can afford to lose and won't miss, just like that extra cash that would have gone to spending or chilling out and then we use it to invest into bitcoin as a form of saving our cash or storing value,  so yeah anyone who understands this logic can invest in bitcoin for however long he likes without been in a stress of any kind, as long as he also has other thigns in Check like his emergency funds, reserves and floats around him.

I don't really like where your leading to with a big opportunity and that seems to be referring to selling, I don't think selling early or in between our journey is part of the plan cause that can be seen as trading if he selling too soon and yeah many of us here are rather planning to accumulate enough bitcoin over linger time ranges to be able to live off bitcoin once we stop working.

while it's true that everyone has his strategy regarding how he goes about his Bitcoin stacking and that a guy can make plans regarding the point he dims fit to sell part of his holding, selling your Bitcoin for the purpose of buying back during the bearish season can become quite a problem since Thier is no 100% certainty that bitcoin will DIP bellow the amount you sold it at a close interval of time and if after selling your holding for such purpose, the price continues to increase, it will put you in a position where you have to stay much longer before Bitcoin DIPs to a convenient point that won't put you in a loss and considering that such scenario may happen or may not happen, it's kind of risky trying to sell part of your holding for the purpose of buying back.

But if you've been long with your DCA routine and have possibly stacked to the point where you are probably in a very comfortable profit region, then whatever you choose to do with your profit wouldn't be big deal as it's certainly going to still put you in profit in the long run. Note that I'm not saying that your strategy is bad most expecially if you're not a new person and have probably been involved in buying Bitcoin which should have built your psychological strength to managing your waiting season after you've sold part of your holding. but for some folks here that her probably new, setting out plans to selling part of your Bitcoin for a buy back Purpose will certainly not work well for them as what they should be more concerned about is their ability to stacking more and building a strong portfolio rather than thinking of selling whenever the market gets bullish. It will make them think like traders and might not work well for them in the long run.

Well... your strategy for investing in Bitcoin is commendable and timely. This method seems to keep your investment safe enough. You have opted for holding and DCAing bitcoins at the same time. Originally the subject of this thread was arranged like this and everyone is trying to arrange their strategies in the same way. One thing to consider here is that only those who have a lot of money will go for these two strategies. Most investors may prefer long-term holdings because Bitcoin is the most rational and diversified investment.

If I had a lot of money like you I would buy the dips now and hold it until 2028 or more (based on price), and secondly the DCAing strategies at monthly basis it would continue till 2030 (if there is no special need). At this moment I'm only concentrating on DCAing and meeting my overall needs. I have no regrets because I will not do anything beyond my financial means. Although Bitcoin's holdings are preferred.

What's the need of selling your bitcoin holdings on such a probability that might never happen, how wiudl you know if we would be bearish next year, while it is true that bitcoin has its cycles, it is even more true that it is very unpredictable and trying to be too smart and trying to engage in buying and selling practices is just gambling or even trading, and worse you might never get to opportunity to buy at the prices which you sold off your holdings, I think your underestimating the power of long term holding in terms of profit. DCA works better when you are buying consistently over time and that's how you have an advantage over volatility not selling your asset just to make profits.

I know that everyone has his opinion and plan on how long they want to hold their bitcoin which should normally be from 4-10 years and up to 20 years for persons younger than the age of 20 or 20 years, and what I believe everyone should understand and consider when making such decision is that the longer you hold your bitcoin the more possibility of having more profits on your investment and that is because of bitcoin compounding value. Wanting to hold for 4 years is not entirely a bad idea and that is if you are close to retirement or already at retirement and don't have enough time to get to a fuck you status level in bitcoin, you can just try to accumulate as much as you can and have a good portfolio within that 4 years if accumulation and then you can start applying whatever selling strategies you have in mind( best option read thread on Jay substainable withdrawal method) and another thign you must have in mind is that planing to hold for 4 years not not your coins or your buys would be matured in that 4 years of accumulation and yeah there is possibility that they have not added in value as much as you want.

IMO anyone thinking about investing little in bitcoin and expecting a huge return is a gambler and he should better fix that mindset and approach, bitcoin is rarely a get rich quick scheme and moreover the plan is to have enough value stored in bitcoin so it is able to provide dividends for you maybe at retirement or to accomplish whatever plan you had in mind when you started investing.

I like your advice about building an emergency fund and maintaining investment continuity. Before reading your post I didn't know that investing can be done by creating an emergency fund. Every investor may have some amount of money left at the end of every month or week even after investing consistently, we use that amount to do something else but not spend that amount unnecessarily if we set aside extra funds for that but never our investment will be irregular. This idea of yours to invest consistently will surely be useful for every investor. If ever I earn more money in a month then I must keep the remaining money for emergency fund.

The personal investment strategy that you are implementing may only be suitable for people who have a lot of patience in carrying it out because I am not sure that other investors will also be able to do something like this until the year you mentioned. Especially if in the middle of the journey there are big benefits that appear before our eyes, which in general will definitely have the feeling to take them and will not just waste them.

So even though the strategy you are talking about looks good, I don't think there will be many people who want to follow it even though currently there are still many investors who want to buy Bitcoin using this method. But we all also don't know how long they will continue to buy like now because all investors definitely have very clear goals in implementing purchases from now on.

Is quite a strategy you have there but don't you think that holding for 2032 seem a little too short because normally holding should be from ten years and above and also one thing we most also understand is that even if you decide to hold for 20 years but doesn't have a good amount of Bitcoin on your portfolio you could end up waiting for the 20 years without any good returns, actually the reason why I brought this issue is that so many people have different mindset and perspective about Bitcoin investment especially the new ones because I over heard a begginner planning to invest a certain small amount of money into Bitcoin with the believe of having a huge return in the future without knowing he could wait for that long without getting a tangible profits at the end.

So actually the only way someone could expect a good return from Bitcoin in the future is that after you have drawn your plan for ten or more years holding you should continue your regular accumulation of Bitcoin, however let's say your targets is achieving $24k in ten years, if your cash flow is enough you could strategize your accumulation in $50 weekly and within ten years you could be surprised to see how far you have gone.

I hope that you have enough Bitcoin in your custody, and you have accumulated up to 60% of your bitcoin target, before thinking of selling next year when bitcoin price is on its peak in the bull run. Because if you have just started accumulating, and you have not hodli up to a circle, then it means that you don't understand what long-term investment is. Selling and buying back is not a good strategy as a way of increasing your bitcoin or to take some profit when you are still accumulating. This is because the market might not display as you expected it, and when you cannot buy back, you will regret your action.

Joy Marshal, why do you want to sell half of your bitcoin, and started DCAing again, it means that you might never reach your bitcoin target, that is if you have a target. This is because instead of you to allow your bitcoin compound profit, continue to compound and giving you bigger profits over the years, you want to be taking it bit by bit, paralysing the compound effect. However, we all have our own decisions to make towards our bitcoin investment, but let us not make mistakes that will make our bitcoin size to be small in future, because the size of profit depends on the size of your bitcoin portfolio.

Every crypto investor has a strategy for their Bitcoin investment. Your strategy is good, although it is different from mine and mine can be different from others, and we are pursuing to arrive at the goal of making future profits from bitcoin investment no matter what our strategy is and how long we hodling bitcoin for.

My strategy is to sell some parts of my bitcoin holding next year and start to apply a DCA strategy to accumulate bitcoin back during the bearish market because it is expected that after the bull run comes a bearish market. That is, after this bull run(2024/2025) what follows is a bearish market.

The truth is, when it comes to investment in bitcoin for long term HODL, there is basically no need for the predictions. What will you use the information of your prediction for? Your concern is how to add more bitcoin to your portfolio and not to fan that ego of being able to predict the price movement using whatever data, it is a total waste of time.

Following the conversation here, I have realized that the best way to go about this is a dual approach that comprise of predominantly DCA and buying with lump sum when the need arises. I mean, just continue to buy using the DCA and when price goes down so much that you feel it is a nice point to get more bitcoin using lump sum, then that can be done while allowing the DCA method to still be running smoothly. With this approach you will not miss any opportunity of getting bitcoin and enjoying sharp rises in price should there be spike as a result of the coming halving and more in the future.

You don't need to check any correlation of any analyst or whatever. You believe bitcoin has the potential of growth and that is all you need. Simply pay attention to buying and securing it and not some analysts that will not even hesitate to spread fear and panic and make you sell your bitcoin premature.

Well said. In general we can't decide how any financial market work, as we only react based on past and present datas which though does not guarantee same future result. Predictions made about the market from analyst should be taken with a pinch of salt, rather than total dependence or believe.

You can only check the correlation of there analysis and yours before you assume or make any decision, the uniqueness of financial market is that; while some are buying others are selling, while you some are anticipating a drop others are anticipating a pump. So the best decision ever is on you and not any analyst, advisors or speculator.

The proven approach in the bitcoin market is applying DCA, and being discipline enough to follow your investment plan in a long term.
The basic goal should be about building a good bitcoin portfolio, buying and accumulating within your range and overtime you enjoy the dividend of it.