Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 345. (Read 123612 times)

I had huge expectations from the Bitcoin ETF regarding the price, but it turned out the ETF was hyped hence, it could not provide the sustainable increase in price most Bitcoiners were expecting. This now shows that nothing is really guaranteed in the Bitcoin market, all we do are just predictions. I think it is high time we moved past this ETF stories and look at the bigger picture and how to take advantage of the lower prices we are seeing now. Those using DCA should continue and not be discouraged by the drop in price when everyone expected a rise. Those buying the dips should as well continue as the market has continued to present us such opportunities for a while now.

I do not think a time will come when I will sell all my Bitcoin irrespective of the price it gets to. I wouldn't want to make the mistake of not owning Bitcoin because if I sell all, building it back will be a problem. I know some persons who did this but ended up feeling that the price of Bitcoin have gone too high so it will not give them much profit again. So they decided to buy low cap coins, I'm sure you already know how this will end for them. Many of them are not happy with that decision and wished they could turn back the hands of time.

Moreover, with the ETF approval yesterday, Bitcoin will become increasingly well known among entrepreneurs and business people. They will see how much potential profit they can get from Bitcoin. Investing in Bitcoin is for the long term and it gives you peace of mind because you don't have to deal with price changes.

You only need to hold Bitcoin until the limit you determine to sell the Bitcoin. Many people have held Bitcoin for a long time and cashed out at the right time. These people can take advantage of the potential profits from Bitcoin. We can also be like them but must learn more about becoming a strong Bitcoin holder.

While people can make short and medium term profits from trading Bitcoin, they can also make huge profits if they accumulate a lot of Bitcoin. They must be able to store their Bitcoins for the long term to maximize profits.

Well it is not as flashy to roll your profits back into BTC, which would be what HODL does, and surely there could be some truth to the flamboyance, but many times those kinds of gambling practices come back to bite folks.  I doubt that this is the place to either get lured into talking about those kind of topics or suggesting that there might be any kinds of consistent ways to profit from trading and/or gambling rather than having more solid practices in which you are rolling your profits rather than spending them all and then not having anything to show for it later down the road.


It is not easy to get rich in a sustainable way, even though some of the BIG Ballers try to act as if there is..


People are going to do what they want, so if they have some way to limit their temptations, then that probably would be better, but hey there are a lot of people who think that they are smarter than everyone else and they engage in gambling behaviors that might not be as glamorous  as they are making them out to be.  Even if you are a prudent investor, you still can splurge from time to time, so it is not necessary that you need to be boring.  Maybe sometimes you will be the ONLY one able to splurge if some of the hotshots might end up blowing their wadds, and then might also need to fall back on your help at later dates.


Past results do not guarantee future performance, and frequently we will beat up on the traders because they end up not being able to out perform or even come close to performing similar to DCA strategies that tend to take way less work and cause way less stress, but the fact that DCA has historically been a great approach does not guarantee that we will continue to win in that area.

I recall that when I used to project my BTC accumulation amounts, I would project out various scenarios that anticipated worse case, medium case and best case BTC price performance scenarios, so that I could already see the approximate amount of cash that I would be putting in and how many BTC that I would have under the various scenarios... and after certain passages of time, so some of the worse case scenarios might have negative returns and then there would also be 0% returns, and then there would be variations of positive returns such as 3%, 6%, 12% or 20%, so the I could see how much I would be anticipated to put in up until the date of projection, how many BTC I would get under various scenarios, what the price of the BTC would be and what the value of my stash would be, and surely in the longer run my performance ended up gravitating towards beating the most bullish of the expectations that I had outlined, even though in the short term my BTC price performance was leaning towards the worse of the expectation, which the worse performance resulted in more BTC being accumulated, so the accumulation of more BTC ended up causing the amount of BTC that I thought that I would have had accumulate go up, so we know what that ends up meaning (a couple years later) for when the BTC price finally did start to go up... so in the beginning there could end up being some advantages of the asset (BTC in this case) underperforming expectations.


You have to figure out your own hold time, and I frequently recommend that anyone getting into bitcoin plan to hold any BTC that he buys 4-10 years or more from the time of purchase, so if you continue to DCA into BTC for 4 years, you will start to have some bitcoin that you bought earlier that would have had already met your 4 year minimum timeline, and any new bitcoin that you buy, even after 4 years investing would have a 4-10 year timeline for them to be justified in buying.. in terms of being considered as long term investments.

Of course you have flexibility and discretion and hopefully if you spend time accumulating bitcoin, then you also spend time learning along the way so that you are prepared when various next steps come in which you might transition from BTC accumulation and into some other potential stage of your BTC journey, whether that be maintenance or liquidation or some other way of thinking about your holdings.

you are absolutely right as starter or newbie having such mindset always endangered your funds. Like those days was actually trading ignorantly those losses I made just imagine using those funds I wasted back then in trading. I actually use to money to accumulate bitcoin at that time bitcoin price was still in the price range of $15k. Now I would have being in great profit but instead greed and ignorance get the best of me thinking trading was a get rich quick scheme.

JJG have help in proven that long-term investment is the best. Mostly when you backing it up with some DCA strategies. That would also help in managing risk expecially when yah investment is bitcoin, because any time its experience any bearish corrections it will surely rise back. I would love to ask this.  what do you think would be the  best duration in holding?🙂

Very interesting, with DCA I actually have an edge over traders, since traders are actually buying and selling bitcoin in short term to make profit, as a long term investor I would have a chance to build a more substantial bitcoin holdings over the long run than to be making profits and having no bitcoin at last, from every angle ive looked at it, long term holders are at much better advantage than traders. No matter how profitable trading is, DCA method beats it. Cause at every interval I'm investing in bitcoin, I'm already a step ahead in building a more substantial value than there are. I'm looking more at the compounding effects my bitcoin holdings would give me and the profits are much larger depending on how long I plan on holding my bitcoin.

Yeah that's true because I notice that one of the challenges most starters normally have on there investment journey is always looking for a possible ways to make profits so perhaps just like you have advise every investors especially the starters should totally remove there mindset of any possible way they feel they can take advantage of the market because they may likely end up regretting there decision.

Actually one of things that affect most investors is greed of always wanting to use one stone to kill two birds without knowing that they could end up not getting anyone at all, however there was this new beginner who started accumulating Bitcoin so when saw someone who sold his Bitcoin and bought again he feels that he could actually do the same without realizing that is gonna be his greatest mistake so after he sold his Bitcoin he never had the chance again to Buy it back. So the best way is to remove any negative mindset that will influence them to act that way.

Holding Bitcoin for long term rather than Short term trading reduces the risk of lossing value to Short term Price fluctuations while still having the opportunity to benefit from Long term price appreciation, Bitcoin has not had a crash since creation (2009) I want to be part of the change Bitcoin is bringing to the world as I continue to accumulate through the DCA strategy I learnt in this forum and having my emergency fund set aside specifically to overcome the thought of selling in time of unforseen contingencies that may arise in the process of accumulation.

I have been opportune to see few of those we can say they succeeded in trading and there are few things I observed about them that really got me worried. Although they made so much money and can actually show some great cash volumes that passed through their account, a lot of them are not conservative, they use this money lavishly and sometimes in a reckless manner. Beside that, they are so noisy and boastful. I don't know if this habit is common for all others, I'm just talking about the few that I know.

What I do know is that although those trading may see big wins and may appear rich sometimes, those investing and holding for long becomes richer on the long run, save for the future, enjoy peace of mind and have little to no chance of becoming broke. Unlike the trader than simple mistakes can lead to serious loss.

Having examine both options, I tend to love long term investment and will not try or advice anyone to focus on trading as that is exclusively reserved for those who have the skill set and the mind to handle the ups and downs that comes with trading.

I believe it is a wrong mindset to think about selling bitcoin or trading bitcoin because it is more profitable, especially for guys in the earliest of BTC accumulation stages, and I think since our emphasis in this thread is to buy and hold and does not involve selling, so therefore, the idea is accumulation of BTC rather than trying to second guess anything in regards to BTC profitability that might come from any conduct that is other than buying and accumulating BTC. 

It is difficult to know on any kind of personal level how much BTC that a guy might need to accumulate in order to start to become over allocated, yet if any of us is thinking int the long term, it surely seems that the earliest stages of BTC accumulation would be to strive to get a BTC portfolio that is at least 1 years worth of salary, and that could take 10 years if the guy is merely investing 10% per year of his salary, and yeah, BTC prices could also appreciate to such an extent that an investment of 1 years worth of salary into bitcoin could end up appreciating greater than other assets, yet I still find it problematic to conclude that the guy should consider himself out of BTC accumulation stages and into maintenance or some other stages based on those kinds of facts...

Once you get into maintenance, there can be ways to sell BTC on the way up, but that is presuming that you are somehow over accumulated so you would not be accumulating, so what is the situation?  are there other investments besides bitcoin and cash, and then at that point there might need to be assessment about what those are because it would seem kind of silly to be selling BTC on the way up, while realizing that you don't have enough and the BTC price keeps going up and then you have just moved yourself into a waiting rather than a buying mindset because who wants to be buying at higher prices than the sold, so why sell in the first place, if you are not quite to  the point of really being able to justify that you had over accumulated.. but again what are the facts getting us there.

It seems to me that you Mahanton are off topic because you are suggesting that guys should sell in order to accumulate more and that seems to be your sense of greater profits by trading rather than just holding, so even if there are ways to do it, you still seem to be off topic by trying to push the conversation in that direction... or to make those kinds of suggestions without further developed facts to justify what you are asserting.


That does not really justify what you are saying.  I mean if you are in this thread and you are trying to stay on topic then maybe you might suggest to limit the risk by suggesting that if guys cannot resist gambling (or trading), then they should make sure that they don't gamble with any more than 10% of their BTC holdings, and if they fuck around and lose that 10% they should have strict enough rules so that they do not come back to their bitcoin holdings and take another 10% for their gambling addiction.. so if they lose the 10% and they are investing $100 per week into bitcoin, then maybe they can ONLY stack away $10 per week to gamble with and the other 90% should be going into bitcoin rather than taking extra chances with an asset that is already risky.. and even if they do that, then they still should be paying attention if they are really benefitting from the time and efforts that they are putting into gambling/trading when presumptively and accordance with the theme of this thread, their main goal is BTC accumulation. 


Well if you use less than 10% and you are trying to learn with that, then maybe at some point you could be able to develop those kinds of skills, but none of us should take for granted that anyone is likely to do any better to be trading rather than focusing on other ways to increase their abilities to accumulate BTC by working or maybe by earning more income and cutting expenses...

I will grant that there could be some guys who might not be very employable based on geography, skill set, age, health, family responsibilities or some other limitations, so they may well be in a position that they are able to spend time learning to trade, so I won't take away from that possibility, but that still is a topic of another thread, and surely some specialized skills to play those kinds of games with potentially one of the best (if not the best) asset available.. and sure if they end up getting into shitcoins, that could be very time consuming, but there could be ways to trade shitcoins without necessarily getting to much sucked into unethical behaviors.... and so there can be a lot of curiousities in the world in the various ways that various shitcoins affect the world. but again sometimes there is going to be a lot having to get into really dumb stuff and spend your brain power on some of the deceptions and fake outs and to play some of the various dumb and misleading talking points without necessarily believing all the bullshit that you will get drug through, so hopefully there would be limits in how much to expose yourself to that, and to recognize the value of bitcoin.. yet part of the temptation for anyone who gets sucked into dumb shitcoin talking points will sometimes also having some feelings about needs to deploy more capital than their 10% limitation in order to really make it BIG with whatever their shitcoin play might be (whether they have good information or not might not always be clear or worth it to explore into it or spend so much time on those kinds of deliberations and investigations).


Frequently the reason why I (and maybe some other members will do it to) will show a longer term DCA approach, so if a guy comes in here bragging about how great trading is or some other waiting around strategy is blah blah blah... then we can ask him to compare his own performance to a strict DCA approach, especially if he has been in bitcoin for 6 or more years... the longer that he has been in, the less likely that he is going to be able to say that he has beaten a relatively strict and/or aggressive DCA approach... sure it is possible, but it can take a lot of time to employ various other strategies, including the waiting around strategy.. when it frequently is better to just get the fuck started, buy regularly and then maybe reassess your income versus expenses and maybe the amount of your holdings and your various funds (emergency and reserve funds) from time to time to figure out if you might need to do some tweaking, such as figuring out ways to make more money or to cut some expenses, and maybe figuring out ways to secure your coins, too.

I really don't think that anyone would just buy an asset without having a plan or purpose of buying either short term or long term. And if eventually such a person exits, I think he is rather undecided about what he is doing or just heard about bitcoin and decided to also invest. But his learning process would be highly hindered since he didn't have any purpose for investing, he might spend his first few months if not more just buying bitcoin recklessly and if eventually situations favours him, he would sell and claim profit and if doesn't he would end up beign a new person that would talk bad about bitcoin. From what I know long term holders become long term holders based on orientation and mindset and this depends on their view of bitcoin as an asset or as a scheme to just make some extra cash


Without proper plan and strategy it's true you can end up dipping your hands in your investment, but other reasons can cause this too, given a case that an emergency occurs and you don't have sufficient funds to cater for it, you might end up dipping your hand in your investment, so proper plan along side safety precautions like saving up an emergency funds that you feel would be enough for you and also planning out your cashflow properly could help too. So it doesn't matter how much your investing into bitcoin but how comfortable you are with how much your putting in. It's a good psychology not to be too aggressive if you haven't planned things out well
I mostly think many persons are ill advice or have a poor vision of bitcoins potential as an asset and are there just to take advantage of its volatile nature to make huge profits, while this may have its benefits to the trader, it also carries equal risk and I've seen many on the other side of the coin. If most traders calculate how much has been lost and how many opportunities they have missed in buying bitcoin that would never return to them cause bitcoin price is bound to increase and its most beneficial for long term holders than short term investors, even if many have good results from trading, I don't think those results would in any way match up to a long term holders comfort and reward that might not come quick but would happen on the long run.

Buy and hold it will make you have greater success in the future or the next 10 years. Long-term investments are more popular with those who really focus on their life savings for old age. Before Bitcoin, people used to invest for their old age by buying gold, but for the current era which has developed or rather the modern era, of course they will  focus more on their investment in Bitcoin. Surveys even show that the percentage of people aged 40 and over are starting to show their interest in making Bitcoin an investment for their old age and you can read that in this article https://www.stilt.com/blog/2021/03/vast-majority-crypto-buyers-millennials-gen-z/

In my opinion, long-term investment in bitcoin can yield greater ROI than those who trade daily. For this reason, our mission is long term and every month we set aside our income to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a limited supply so it is not surprising that currently large companies are starting to buy more BTC for them to store. So we don't back down to them, that is, we stick to our position of buying Bitcoin and holding it for the long term.

trading is actually good when it comes to making short term profiting, but not everyone can just dive into trading just like that without any proper proper researching or risk management. You need time to learn more about trading before diving into it, while holding on the other hand don't actually require such skills or time. You just need to make research on the right coin to hold but bitcoin as made that easy because is the best coin, especially when it's comes to holding (long-term investment) is not as risky as other coins. I do trade but still prefer holding.

One of the reasons on why i have decided to make some active trades on which this is far more profitable than on just simply holding. Its impossible that you wont really be able to see and realize that stuff.

The only issue on here is that you would really be needing to risks more and we know that not all could be able to bare up such risks and this is why they woudl really be that deciding on holding their positions instead
rather than on hassling  themselves on going into those trading platforms and spending their times on making those buy and sells.This do really actually depends on someones preference and risks appetite
on which we know that each person would really be having on different approach towards this risky and unpredictable market.

The reality, for those people who do plan to risks are the ones who do have the opportunity to make money more specially on short time
but its not really that necessary for you to dive in with this kind of path to take if you arent that even confident on what you are doing.

Even though long-term investing is likely to be more profitable for more than 90% of normal people, there are people who are able to make more by trading. 

There are a lot of hurdles, and surely one of the problems is to be in and out of an investment, especially something like bitcoin, and if you are out at the wrong time, it could end up wiping out all of your profits, even if you might still be profitable in dollars, you might end up missing out on a step up that never comes back down (so you lose compounding effects).

Of course, we are not talking about trading in this thread, but it is not always going to earn less, but it seems to be quite problematic to even be attempting to trade something like bitcoin which is amongst the best of investments available (if not the best), and then some guys are dicking around trying to trade it, like they are playing with dynamite, and sure it might end up working out, but does not seem to be the kind of asset that a guy should be playing with.

Long-term investment has always been more profitable than spot trading, because the two are very different jobs so the level of profit is never the same. Everyone can see that investors who invest in the long term always buy more often than sell, while traders who rely on spot always balance between buying and selling because they don't plan for the long term like investors have done so far. Currently, I am still quite happy using the DCA strategy if I want to buy something on the market because it is a strategy that has been very commonly used by many investors for a long time.

On the surface, that sounds dumb. It sounds as if you are gambling rather than investing.  It might work out, but on the face of it, such a plan sounds dumb.


Ok.  If you have a cashflow, and you have income versus expenses, then you would have some kind of idea how much your expenses are and how much your income is, right?  If after you account for your expenses, then you invest 100% into bitcoin, then that sounds like it could be possible to do, but how does anyone know for sure what all of his expenses are going to be between the time that you get paid. You have to have some kind of a float.  Otherwise if you are paid weekly every friday, then you would spend it all as soon as you are paid and you would not have any money between saturday and the next friday when you get paid again.

I think ultimately you already have some kind of a reserve or a float, and you are merely arguing about how much of a float or a reserve to keep.

Even if we go with an attempt at a more charitable and non-gambling interpretation of your cashflow situation, there could be some logic to build your BTC prior to building your reserve, even though you would still be gambling, but let's say that you have get paid $250 every week and you have $200 for your expenses, and so you decide to invest all of the remaining $50 into bitcoin (so that would be 20% of your income.  so maybe to some extent you would be considering your BTC holdings as your emergency fund... and so maybe that is all fine and dandy, but after a year of investing $50 per week (20% of your income), you have invested $2,600 into bitcoin (which is like 10x of your weekly income), and if BTC is still your emergency fund, and you still have not built an emergency fun, you are just asking for trouble... and maybe you get lucky and maybe you don't but seems a bit short-sighted to handle your finances in that kind of a way.. since all of your efforts to invest could end up blowing up on you due to your own lack of prudent risk management.


Good.. at least you are learning.  Usually it is best to have at least between 3-6 months of an emergency fund.. but of course, the greater the size of your BTC investment, the more likely that you would want to have a larger emergency fund to off-set any temptation to dip into your BTC investment... these kinds of risk management and cash versus investment balances are soley in the discretion of each of the investors.


Well 4-5 months of investing is not very long, and maybe you might need to just figure out what the right balance is so that you keep buying, especially during dips, and maybe after 3-4 years of investing you might be able to trace back the power of your having had continued to invest through the earlier years, and maybe in 3-4 years we might be going through another bear market, so maybe you might need to consider a cycle and a half of ongoing investing. and then see where you are at in 6 years or so.

Yeah it can be tough in the beginning, but probably you have to find a comfortable size, whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that is comfortable for you, your wife and your situation.

Regarding withdrawing every week, given the various recent fee spikes and the signal that we might have future fee problems, I personally don't consider that to be necessary or prudent to withdraw to a private wallet every week, unless your withdrawal amounts are at least $500 to $1k, and so personally I think that it is better to allow your UTXOs to at least reach a certain level prior to withdrawal.. and that is not merely about current fees, but it is also about future possible fee issues that could come about..


You could set up your buy the dip structure to have a lot of legs in the buying down, and surely it could take some time to build up those legs, especially if you were new to investing.

Let's say, for example, that you have been investing into bitcoin for a year and a half, and so your investment budget is $100 per week, and you had been buying half right away $50 and the other $50 you were saving for buying on dips.  So if the BTC price stays flat or it does not correct more than 8%, then you are not buying any extra BTC, but if there is an 8% or more correction, then you begin to buy additional $50 at 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%, 16%, etc etc etc... and sometimes you end up using some of your reserve funds and sometimes your reserve funds just continues to build up, so maybe between mid-October and mid-January, you had only a few occasions in which your buy on the dip funds were triggered, so you mostly had been building up your buying on the dip funds during that time.  so maybe recently, our dip got between 18% and 20%, so you might have had several buy on the dip orders execute, and maybe if the BTC price stays in high dip areas, your regular DCA might end up increasing to higher amounts than $50 per week because we are already in dip territory, and so you can structure those buying on the dips however you like in terms of how large are the buys, how many buys and what amount of price increments you want to have between your buy on the dip triggered price point.


Guys can also come to an investment such as BTC and consider that they are going to invest for 6 years, and then they will consider selling at around that time. 

They may or may not end up selling merely because they reached 6 years, because they could reassess the situation and figure out a better plan.  But you are correct, there could be a specific reason why they might choose to get in and out of BTC, which may or may not be a good idea if they  are still planning to live for a while and have needs for investments such as bitcoin that could serve as a hedge in regards to their other investments.

The person who invested into bitcoin for 6 years might even decide to consider beginning some kind of sustainable withdrawal rather than withdrawing immediately, as I describe in my sustainable withdrawal thread.   

That where those days I was new to this crypto space, didn't have much knowledge on how things work back then all I thought was that one's it's low you buy and sell when it's high unknowingly to me was just spot trading. It's actually course me alot of losses.
Have to take my time to understand how things work In this space and this forum had also help with that. Now I'm now using DCA strategies and I'm now the long-term investment type

What you were doing was trading, buy low and sell high. Sometimes you will make money but most times you will lose. Buying the dips for short term trading is not much different from gambling, like you already said, you will surely miss out sometimes and the losses will never depart from you.

Buying the dip for long term investment is not a bad way of Bitcoin accumulation, it is definitely a nice way of getting decent amount of Bitcoin at discount price. The problem I only see in buying the dip is that it could be very tempting to sell when the price finally goes higher and seems to have stalled even if it is just for some moment. The investors might face the temptation of wanting to sell in order for the price not to dump and return to below the major entry points. It will really be painful for the investors to buy the supposed dips, see good profits and still allow the price to go back below the entry point, this might lead to some form of regrets.

When an investor is ready to overcome these thoughts and drive that is associated with buying the dips, then it could turn out to be a very good approach to Bitcoin investment.

The irony with Bitcoin is that we don't know when we are at the bottom or when we are at the peak. Take example of yesterday, Bitcoin went down to 40k and we have speculations that price may go down to 36k but very next day we have price up at 41.5k. The point is we have to create a strategy about when to buy or sell. Everyone of us have to create that strategy our self as there is no standard way defined about when to buy and sell. What suits you may or may suit me.
If I talk about myself, I prefer more buying on dips then when price is up and I follow DCA method to accumulate Bitcoins.

waiting for bitcoin to get to a fixed price before buying is not a realistic method but the best thing to do is to set out the range of amount the price of bitcoin will fall to before you start buying and also set the range of amount the price of bitcoin will get to before you can sell off your holdings. Except you want to be a greedy investor if not, knowing the most convenient range of value I buy the DIP shouldn't be a big deal and should be a fix stuff because the volatile nature of BTC itself suggest that the price of BTC isn't stable and that while you are waiting for the price I go down to the threshold you've set for yourself, others are waiting for the bull run which will counter your plans of buying at the DIP.