Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 343. (Read 123631 times)

Investing in Bitcoin with the Dollar Cost Averaging method has simplified the investment journey for many investors. Especially those who do not have the money to buy a large amount of bitcoins at one time can continue their bitcoin investment quite well in this way. The advantage of dollar cost averaging is that people can start investing with a small amount of money and increase it over time to grow their investment portfolio. But I think investing in this method is not the only thing that should have a long-term mindset for those who invest in Bitcoin using the dollar cost averaging method. There are many people who invest in bitcoins but withdraw money from that invested bitcoins to feed their family money I think their bitcoin investment is not worth it. So all of us bitcoin investors should keep in mind that when we need money we don't have to withdraw from our bitcoin investment.

The DCA method is again the most preferred because investing in the DCA method is likely to achieve success. The regular DCO method helps an investor own the large asset Bitcoin. And DCA method depends on how an investor can invest, weekly, monthly investment will bring quick success of investment because if bitcoin is invested every week then there will be a lot of savings in terms of price. And it is possible to be successful in long term investment, if you act according to your advice it is definitely possible to be successful.

You are right, especially if you believe that after a decline the price of Bitcoin will eventually rise again, then the DCA strategy is a good strategy to use in terms of profits. Additionally, if you increase your purchases when the price of Bitcoin falls further, that would be great. Because you think the drop is a good discount and you can normalize the return if you think $100 is appropriate for your next purchase, assuming it's the regular price.
And DCA is a great strategy because you simply create a regular schedule within your means where you invest a certain amount of money into Bitcoin every month or every week. This way, even if the price of Bitcoin rises, you will still invest the same amount of money, and your investment will become increasingly profitable as the price rises.

In my own opinion, majority of the person who campare Bitcoin to shitcoins are those who have very shallow knowledge about Bitcoin, or they are just being blinded by the temporary return a shitcoin might have given to them. Bitcoin being the reason for the existence of those shitcoins, is enough fact presented to end the comparison. Beside the coins they tend to praise or use in comparing Bitcoin are just temporary trends that would go back to the ground in just some few months or years. But Bitcoin, with all the trust it has acquired even with the critics and fights from government it still stands as the all round best in the crypto network.



For sure. This should be a problem for anyone who has been using the DCA strategy of accumulating Bitcoin. And it's another golden opportunity for combined DCA and buy the dip. Though we can't tell for sure if the price will depreciate anymore but, the best advise is to work with what you have now. Those using lump sum could also buy more at this price.


Congrats man, you just got urself one of the characteristics of a mature investor. I know of several persons, that have made their emotions the decision making body of their finance. But I tell you this, they always come back crying, had it been I knew.

indeed this is an opportunity to start accumulating more quantity of bitcoin with DCA strategies and all. When I was actually new in crypto space I don't have much Idea or knowledge about it. Time like this I would be dwelling in fear when bitcoin is experiencing any dip without knowing that am being given more opportunities to grab by buying the dip sometimes I even go further selling in losses. But now I have began to see the in and out about it all thanks to the knowledgeable individuals in this forum. I'm not feeling any fear any more all am just doing is accumulating more BTC 

Now that the Bitcoin price is moving downward, it is currently at 39k+, and it will surely bounce back in no time.

I just want to let everyone of us here to know that it's another opportunity to buy the dip and hodl, even if the price dips more than this, keep buying (buy more) as it will serve as a discount for you in you act of DCAing. What you would have acquired at $40k with $100 is now cheaper, so you could increase your Bitcoin stash.

I don't know about trying to make comparisons with bitcoin versus shitcoins, since it seems that we should get some ideas for what bitcoin is, and then we can better understand that almost every shitcoin is either copying bitcoin or it is not really adding anything of new value.
  So how much time do we want to spend trying to study shitcoins or to get involved in them, even though there could be some shitcoins that outperform bitcoin for extended periods of time, yet that still might not be enough of a reason to invest into them without having some kind of in and out strategy to them, yet even longer shitcoin outperformance of bitcoin might end up causing us to have to pay attention to whether it is adding any value or not...  .. so it is up to each of us regarding if we are going to let ourselves get distracted into shitcoins..and maybe we are more inclined to get distracted into them if we either are not confidence in what we believe bitcoin to be.


I usually consider that a person who has accumulated a lot of BTC might start to slow down a bit on his DCA and would more likely start to favor buying on the dip, but surely it is relative.  If  a person is trying to reach fuck you status (which is traditionally consider to be between 20-30 years of salary/expenses saved/invested), and he has ONLY saved up/invested less than 1 year of annual salary/expenses, he may still be fairly aggressively inclined towards DCA; however, if he is getting to a point of having 3-5 years of salary/expenses saved/invested, then he might start becoming more strategic, and if he is getting into the neighborhood of 8-10 years of salary/investment saved/invested, he might change his strategies even more.  Part of the reasons for the changes in the strategies is that any new contribution that he makes into his investment/savings is likely not adding as much value as is the price appreciation or depreciation of his investment.

Of course, for anyone who has not quite reached the stage of fuck you status still might want to engage in ongoing DCA, but another issue could come from being in an investment for a long time, there can be senses of the cycles, and the fact that you already hold a large amount of that asset relative to your other investments may cause you to want to diversify too.. so I cannot really say which kinds of balances that any particular person might have to weigh in terms of figuring out when to change some of his various emphasis.

Previously I had considered that ONLY getting to fuck you status would be the goal to bounce out of a DCA strategy, but part of the problem with that kind of analysis is that maybe a guy might have created an accumulation goal for himself of something like 10% or even 25%, but then if he ends up over investing during times in which the BTC price was relatively low, then he might feel over allocated, and if the BTC price goes up 2x, 3x, 5x, 10x or some other amounts, then he feels even more over allocated, and might become reluctant to invest more into BTC, even though he might still not be close to fuck you status.

Maybe I need an example to try to explain?

Let's say that 10 years ago, a guy had an income of about $20k per year, and over the previous 10 years or more he had created a fairly well-diversified investment portfolio that is around $50k in value, and he considers that his fuck you status is $500k, so he hears about bitcoin, and decides to allocate 10% to bitcoin, but figures it will take him a year to reach his goals, and so once he gets to 10% the BTC price dips, so he ends up allocating 20% rather than 10% (which is $10k invested into bitcoin), and so his average cost per BTC is around $1k (which means he has around 10 BTC), so BTC prices shoot up to $20k (which is 20x) and then correct back down to $4k or so (which is still 4x up for him), and maybe over the next 7 years BTC prices are up and down, and so maybe his traditional investments might have doubled in 10 years from $50k to $100k, but his bitcoin had gone from $10k to $200k (in 2017) and then back down to $40k (in 2018) and then back up to nearly $700k (in 2021) and then corrected back down to $160k in 2022 but then are back to up around $400k right now.

Another thing is that based on various debasement of the money in 2020, he might have concluded that $500k could no be his fuck you status, and he needed to have $1 million as his fuck you status, and so what is the guy going to do during all of this time, and even though I am personally referring to spot price, I consider valuation of your bitcoin based on spot price to be too unreliable, so we have to consider actual valuations of bitcoin based on bottom prices which is the 200-week moving average which has steadily moved up over the past 10 years also, and currently puts BTC values at more than $30k.  

So even though on paper the BTC values had been moving all over the place based o spot price the 200-week moving average had been more gradual, and surely maybe the solution would have been to just keep plugging away with DCA rather than worrying about any of the valuations and trying to time the market, and so maybe even with an ongoing continued purchasing of BTC, he might have accumulated another 3-4 BTC over the last 8 years with something like $30 per week of ongoing BTC accumulation.  


You would need to make those kinds of determinations, and yeah maybe it is not easy to figure out, and maybe the default is just ongoing DCA because if you try to do other things, you might end up screwing up your own investment.  


People do get emotional both on the way up and on the way down, so I am not claiming it is easy.  

There are also some very smart folks who end up losing their BTC due to NOT adequately securing them.  Earlier today, I heard a podcast with a guy (Rick Messitt) who had regrets about losing 25 BTC due to a hack, but also he regretted that he had made some mistakes that were a product of his sloppy security.. and his mistakes had to do with not increasing his security practices related to his coins to go along with their increase in value over the years.  


Of course with the transaction fees, there are needs to consider the present, but also the future, and so none of us should be engaging in practices in which it might not be very economical to spend coins that we own, which is one of the advantages of keeping our UTXOs relatively large, such as $500 or more.  Of course, if we involuntarily get stuck with some smaller value UTXOs there might not be anything that we can really do about it, except maybe to monitor times in which it is more economical to spend from those UTXOs, and even some folks strive to consolidate their UTXOs during times that the fees are cheaper, relatively speaking, and we might not know what the fees are going to do in the future, and some folks have made some claims about the problematic nature of having small UTXOs, similar to what I have been saying (and this has become more clearly showing itself as a problem since November or so and especially since we have been spending nearly the whole time with the mempool not clearing out.... rare times to be able to send transactions for less than 30 sats per vbyte in the past 3 months and even times of inabilities to send for less than 90 sats per vbyte...and if you are in a rush, there may even be more difficulties in terms of needing to send with a higher fee to make sure it goes through.

Regarding the kid, it is hard to know, because sometimes you want kids to be having to have incentives to build their own income, but there can be times in which having funds can be helpful to provide opportunities that would not otherwise be available, which also will come down to Not being tempted to be dipping into coins that you accumulate with the passage of time... which maybe even if the kid is growing and your investment is growing, there could be times where you might see that it is a good way to supplement your own income in the future too, which will indirectly benefit the kid if s/he is still living with you, and so I suppose that the time that assistance might be most useful would be when the kid might be transitioning away from home or maybe if there might be career or education opportunties that come but that there are extra expenses that you would not be able to cover, except perhaps because your bitcoin investment ended up performing better than any of your other investments, which surely is not guaranteed, but many of us likely see that it has quite a bit of hope built within its structure.


I personally don't like automatic DCA's, and I am not even aware of automatic DCAs that could be set by the hour.

And, if you are trying to time manual DCAs, how are you going to know?  

Let's say that every week you are buying $100, maybe you could set a limited buy order price for yourself to buy that is somewhat below the week's entry price?  You could even preset that order, and leave it for 5 or 6 days of the week, and if the buy order(s) does not execute then just buy at whatever is the price on day 7, so the next week you will get your new authorization for an additional $100 or whatever is the amount.. and don't get me wrong, you could have several orders that are at something like $25 at each of the points such as 3% 5% 8% and even 12% or higher dip amounts below the price at the start of the week...and whether you are going to be advantaged by such a system might not be easy to measure, but it might be enough of an advantage that ends up allowing you to accumulate 8.5 BTC rather than 8 BTC in the next 10 years, by 2034.  


That is bullshit.

Yeah sure you can strategically pick almost any time that is 4 years or more in the past in which the BTC price is quite a bit lower than the current price or even lower than the average BTC prices over the last 4-5 years and then say what if I would have had lump sum invested into BTC at that time... yeah, but you did not have $20k to invest at that time and even if you did.. you wouldn't have been ready, willing and able to invest it into BTC in one fell swoop like a gambler, and the ONLY way you were able to invest $20k is because you took out $100 per week from your cashflow, otherwise you would not have had been able to lump sum in a quantity that is even close to that absent taking out a loan, and who is suggesting to be taking those kinds of loans.. absent some great terms... which you have to account for the interest rate of such a loan too... .

Don't get me wrong.  I don't have anything against lump summing, but if you lump sum $20k and you also DCA $100 per week, you would have even been better off...or if you lump sum half (because that is all that  you could conjure up) and then you DCA the other half of either $50 or $100 per week, then you would be better off to supplement your lump sum with DCA.

Most regular people (normies) have limited abilities to lump sum, and even if they were to have had $21k available to them in December 2019, maybe they should have had started out by allocating $7k to lump summing (buying right away), $7k towards buying on dips and the other $7k to plug into their regular cashflow whether they spread out the investment of that remaining $7k over 6 months or 12 months might have some discretion in terms of figuring out their own cashflow situation.

Fuck lump sum as a stand alone strategy and comparing it to DCA from a kind of retrospective fantasylandia perspective that does not apply to an overwhelming majority of normies to suddenly come up with $21k that they might have ONLY barely been able to come up because they struggled to take it from their weekly cashflow for 4 years straight.


From my reading, you, Agbamoni, seem to be misunderstanding Greyhats' question in regards to his wanting to try to time his DCA rather than intending to change the amount of his DCA.


That is a good clarification. So yes, Greyhats is trying to combine DCA and buying on the dips, and a more strict DCA strategy would not really account for that.. yet practically speaking if there were a strategic time in which the BTC price always were to dip, then it may well give a slight edge over randomly choosing buy times or even if you time your DCA buys at the top of the weekly pattern (if there were such a pattern) versus timing your buy at the bottom of the pattern (if there were such a pattern).

Actually DCA has nothing to do with those stuff you listed above because irrespective of how we feel is very good to buy when the price is dip shouldn't give us the mindset that DCA strategy is by only buying dip, so perhaps one of the reasons why DCA strategy is one of the best strategy is because it doesn't being influenced by any news or price increase of Bitcoin but however the only difference could only be that the amount of Bitcoin accumulated when the price was a bit lower and the amount accumulated when the price was a bit higher, let's take for example if you bought Bitcoin when the price was $40k with $100 Weekly DCA method you will realize that the amount of Bitcoin accumulated using your $100 weekly DCA will totally be different from the amount of Bitcoin you will accumulate using your $100 weekly when the price of Bitcoin will be $46k, so that's just the only difference but however the price of Bitcoin shouldn't influence our DCA strategy because DCA involves slowly accumulation and doesn't depend on Bitcoin price.

Now the Bitcoin price correction has been almost three percent if you look at it over a twenty-four hour period and this of course makes most people buy again because they really want to get Bitcoin at $40K. However, I personally don't know how far this price correction will go and when the next increase will occur in Bitcoin. Although I also still have a very big belief that the price increase in Bitcoin could happen again at the end of this month and the price level could be more different from the current one.

The act of buying Bitcoin must be considered a quite serious action because there are risks that must be understood by everyone so that every thing must really be implemented with very special consideration before someone buys Bitcoin. I hope that this correction will not be too deep and will not be too long, because I really want to see $50K in the next month in Bitcoin and that is probably what other people really want too. Especially for those who have bought at $40K or during a correction like now.

You will consider DCA purchases do not have to associate with buying and selling on the OTC because it will not affect, OTC is usually only done by whales who want to sell or buy in large quantities.

Do you want to invest in bitcoin by way of DCA? No need to wait for the US market to close or on any weekend you can buy bitcoin in the amount you want.
People usually do DCA every week maybe on the weekend or once a month that's what they do including myself, so I don't think there is a need to think about ETFs or other news.
You want to set DCA all the time then don't think about the price decreasing or increasing because DCA will continue to buy all the time.

The US market does not affects your DCA. Unless you do not understand fully what they mean by DCA. It is dollar cost average. You buy based on the percentage you set from your income without having to bother what may affect the market or not. This means that the only time your DCA can shift is when your income get higher or lower . For instance if your are dcaing 40% of your income monthly and your salary is $100 which is equivalent to $40.. So if there is an increase in your monthly income, let me say from your initial $100 to $200. Your dca value would now be $80 monthly. Same thing goes to a scenario where there is a decrease in your income, the dca price would be lesser based on the percentage you set for it.

I hope you understand now. The ETF, buy and sell in the US markets cannot affect your investment approach if dca is your strategy. The only persons that may experience some challenges are trading. Remember, majority of rhose who dca are holding their investment for long. They have the mindset that the value will be significant in the near future. However it is your choice to choose if you want to hold for decades, yearly or bi- yearly.

Through this I came to know what Bitcoin long term investment is and how DCA benefits you in the long run. If you think of inveting in Bitcoin at one price and looking for quick return then there are not much chances of success.
Bitcoin will be a success if you are looking to invest over a longer period of time. Even Lump Sum investment is good if you are willing to invest for next 4 to 5 years. Both DCA and LUMP SUM are good options provided you can wait.
Here is my calculation from previous post that show comparison of DCA vs Lump sum.

 

No investment does not have its own risk attached to it, especially bitcoin that is volatile in nature. When you fail to gave a proper plan and how to go about your bitcoin investment can make you invest in vain. If you don't have an emergency funds,or your emergency funds is way too low compare to what you should have, and you are just DCAing, it will lead to you selling when it is not at your will. Another risk, is being your own bank. If you don't keep your bitcoin save by storing it in a cold storage, but if you are either storing on hot wallet or in an exchange, you might wake up one morning and all your investment has been wiped out by scammers. So you shouldn't say that bitcoin investment doesn't have risk. DCAing and long term hodli, limits the risk of you running at loss, and gives you upper hand for compounding profit

The price movement of bitcoin shouldn't be our focus because it will add no value or increase our investment portfolio, rather we should continue to buy regularly with DCA approach weekly or monthly,especially those investors that are in their accumulation phase, so that you don't get distracted the what price bitcoin will be, dumping or pumping. Stay focus on building and growing your investment.

Why are you contradicting your statement. You said that bitcoin has already surpasses all shitcoins, which is true, why are you still hyping the shitcoins again. Since the existence of cryptocurrency, I haven't seen any shitcoin that is worth investing in, because it is similar to gambling. Shitcoin is not an investment because it is for short term, and if you want to have an investment that you will benefit from at old age is only bitcoin because, only bitcoin has the potential of giving your profit over time.

Hi all,

Do you think with the ETF's in play, and the buying and selling thats going on OTC we should all consider more precisely when we do our DCA buy. Should we setting our DCA after US market close on a week day or even off a weekday and onto a weekend day?

Regards,
Greyhats

You say they're mere "expectations" like anything positive mentioned about Bitcoin are empty words. But if a person tried to read, learn, and understand how the network actually works, he/she would never say that Bitcoin's future is based on expectation. Bitcoin doesn't hold an "empty promise".

It's a practical solution to the Byzantine Generals' Problem, which I believe is a challenge that was taken very seriously by computer scientists who worked on distributed systems.

Regarding withdrawals every week, I had pressured him to be aware of fuel prices which had recently risen, so I held them for a while like in December, the balance was still on the exchange for 4 weeks until I finally withdrew the bitcoins and didn't want to keep them for long. A week usually allocates $100 more and that is definitely a liability that we need to transfer to Bitcoin. because this also makes my wife disciplined in investing by considering that all basic needs are met properly. Regardless of whether the target is 3-4 years or even more because our goal is to invest for our little child, this is a kind of inheritance because we have nothing but Bitcoin that we can give  him in the future. Hopefully it goes according to plan and there are no obstacles along the way. However for now the most important thing is to ensure a balanced income between investments and basic daily needs.

We just try our best and make the best plans possible, for the future no one knows, the important thing is that as long as we can still buy and hold, that is more than enough.

A lot of those who bought that type might be lured by the news and hype of the bull run of 2021. Most of those people joined Bitcoin because they heard it was making people rich, so they rushed and bought hoping to sell and make money quickly. When the price reach the peak around $69,000 and started retracing, some were advised to hold more that it would retrace. It kept dropping and taking longer time and the assurance of retracement became ineffective, so most of them sold at loss and left. It may not be all of them that sold but it is very rare to see those who started their Bitcoin buying around that time that is still holding till date.

Starting to invest in Bitcoin is something one should have clear intentions and plan for before starting to avoid running into troubles. It is good that a lot of ideas have already been discussed here, those who are still not clear about certain things should just do little reading.

While it is true that a trader might or would be very successful in a very or normal volatile conditions which is a very nature of Bitcoin,  but from history bitcoin has shown other nature as when they is no really big price movement and the price continues to stay around a certain area, so in essence traders are wholly dependent on the market to make profit or to use their skill, while I'm not trying to talk down on trading as a skill, but I'm saying that they are so dependent on the opportunities the Market creates for them to take action. While as a DCA investor or bitcoin holder at large, we don't really care if so what price fluctuations occurs in the Market, while there no guarantee that our results would out perform the traders even if historically it says otherwise, we are always likely to have more success. I could even further my claim by saying that the very build of bitcoin would favour long term  holders over traders. Bitcoin was made to be scarce, and scarcity would end up meaning that they would be more value of bitcoin and traders can not benefit from this and bitcoin might become less volatile in the future and traders might have to find other asset that they could trade.

So a person who has built enough stash would have a different worse case scenario than a newbie who is still looking for opportunities to buy more bitcoin. And I think the approach and strategies would also differ based on individual too, cause someone who has built enough stash would prefer an uptrend market and would most likely prefer DCA method over lump summing or dip buys sunce he is looking mostly at maintaining his stash to be around a certain level and would mostly likely not support aggressive buying cause he would be considering different senerios and outcomes to be best for him. While another individual too a newbie would favour a different strategy and approach that would be in a kind of ways that would favour him to buy more bitcoin or build his stash more effectively and also considering the time this two set of persons either have left based on their goal and investment duration or are setting. Meaning that these senerios and strategies would continue to change as my investment matures and I reach a certain level of accumulation.
As you continue to explain this stuff out I begin to understand you better on this topic of senerios, I never thought that planning out or instances where accident would occur or I lose my assets where things I should consider. Even know I'm thinking of adding my currency value drop rate as part of senerios and I think this is so broad and if used well would yield a better success, just makes you more prepared for anything that could happen.

What's the point of a long term investment if you lack the knowledge, comparing your idea with investors who hold till date using the DCA strategy sounds funny, you should have your own target and I believe those investors had plans and they foresee what the market will be like, this is the main point every investor should key on when dealing with bitcoin investment, you should be able to wait and exercise patience when investing. Everyone knows the best investment for long term is bitcoin so you can't just hold any altcoin for long term thinking you'll make profit. I don't know if you understand my point but the fact here is not everyone can invest for long term holding bitcoin that's why we hear a lot of stories about careless investors, you sound like someone who doesn't know how these investment works, I think you should try those altcoins first.

Not sure about preparing, but in any case, it will still be accumulation for me, no matter what, and that is to be on the safe side. Consolidation for me is ranges, it could either be a breakout run above the upper boundary of the consolidation pattern or going lower boundary. So in any case, it could still be a win-win if we step aside our emotions, and if we see consolation, the easiest way for us is to continue to buy again. If it goes down, then continue to do and it by chance there is a break out run this we could make a small but still good profits in short term.