Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 346. (Read 108540 times)

I agree with everything that you said Roseline492 - except that you seem to be suggesting that people can achieve almost anything that they aspire to, yet at the same time you acknowledge that it may well be out of reach for some people to have 1 BTC as their goal... . .not only is it unrealistic for some people, it might not be achievable absent being able to reach a bunch of intermediary goals first.  So if someone is just getting started in bitcoin and the most that they can muster up is the buying of $10 of bitcoin per week or per month, based on what we know right now and we can reasonably project about aspects of the future, they are going to likely need to accomplish a lot of intermediary goals in order to get to 1 BTC in 10 years or even in 20 years, and if they can project that they will be able to get to $100 per week in 5 years and $1,000 per week in 10 years, then maybe they will be able to reach 1 BTC in 20 years... maybe?  There are a lot of unknowns in there and probably not even very good kinds of goals in the first place.

If someone is brand new to bitcoin, but already has been working 5 years or more, and they are still ONLY able to muster up $10 per week, then they are likely NOT in a very lucrative path in life in terms of the quantity of their income.  If someone is real young and in college then maybe they are still trying to figure out possible career paths in which their income might be able to become higher, but they still might have to figure out some specifics in regards to how they might end up earning higher income, and I doubt that the problem is solved merely by earning value in bitcoin, because for whatever skills that anyone has, they still have to figure out who is going to be paying them for their skills - without necessarily going into a life of scamming people through shitcoins or something like that, which sadly is the path that some people choose to take in order to increase their income.

I guess my main quibble with you Roseline492 is that you seemed to have some kind of an underlying idea in your post that a person can set their aspirations however they like, but it really seems that the aspirations need to be realistic, even if there are aspects of the aspirations that might be difficult to achieve, and maybe focusing on the number of BTC to accumulate is not really a concrete (or even important) enough of a goal.


That is not how you minimize loss.  You minimize loss by not investing more than you can afford to lose.  So yeah maybe you do not sell on the way down and you ONLY buy when the BTC price goes down, but at the same time, you still could end up losing all your bitcoin, and if you keep buying as the price is dropping, you could end up losing even more and more and more, especially if the BTC price never ends up recovering enough for you to get your investment amount back.


Trading does increase the kinds of risks, and so sometimes the traders could end up either losing all their money faster or they could even lose more than the amount of bitcoin that they buy.. buy using leverage.  Leverage in either direction could contribute to an investment like bitcoin becoming a loser, even though so many people who have ONLY bought bitcoin (and who have ONLY gone long bitcoin) have tended to end up being in profits sooner or later.. especially the longer that they are in bitcoin, and the most that they are risking is 100% of what they put into bitcoin, but so many folks have ended up in profits, and even now if you have been in bitcoin for 2 years or longer then you have pretty good chances of being in profits if you continued to invest along the way, yet of course, there are folks who may well have had front loaded their investment into BTC at prices higher than today (higher than $36,400) and even if some of them continued to buy bitcoin, they still might be in the negative if they invested higher amounts of their value when the BTC price was higher than it is today...

So sometimes it can take 3-4 years or more just to get back in the black, even with a strategy that is ONLY buying BTC and not engaging in other kinds of tactics to trade and/or to leverage.  And, even getting back in the black is not guaranteed, but surely it seems that if someone has invested in such a way that they continue to buy over several years, even if they front-loaded their investment at higher prices, there are decent odds that they are going to get back in the black, even if it is not guaranteed.. and since it is not guaranteed, that is why people have to choose a position size that is not too much and they are willing to lose the amount invested in the event that the BTC price does not return to prices higher than their earlier purchase prices nor to prices that are higher than their average costs per BTC.


That is one of the problems of buying too much BTC at once (such as lump sum investing and/or front-loading the BTC investment) rather than being prepared to continue to buy on the way down, and realizing that there is a need to buy no more than you can afford to lose.. really afford to lose by being committed to riding the investment to zero if the BTC price keeps going down rather than continuing to go up.


We can see that price history already happened, but it does not prove that BTC prices will return to such prices, even though surely it seems that the investment thesis for bitcoin today is stronger than what it was in 2021, but we might not know all of the facts that we need to know, and maybe there could be developments that contribute towards no more pumps of BTC and the possibility that BTC prices never get back above $37k (for example) or even more difficulties to get back to $69k..

Sure in recent times, I had already made some posts that I believe that bitcoin has something between 70% and 80% odds of reaching $69k or higher before the end of 2025;  however, 70% to 80% odds are still not even close to 100% odds.. that means that in my own thinking there are 20% to 30% odds that $69k will not be reached prior to the end of 2025.  And, hey I am not claiming that I know anything beyond my own opinion being similar to the opinions of others, yet I believe my opinion is stronger and more based in reality than someone who might still be considering that the odds of getting to $69k in the next 2.1 years is close to 95% or even 100%, and so sure you are free to believe whatever you like, but I think that it is a bit unrealistic to be placing too high of odds on various UPside scenarios and completely negating the odds of downside scenarios, even if the odds for up happen to be greater than the odds for down...

The mere fact that the odds are greater does not mean that the scenario with the greater odds is going to end up playing out.  If we are in BTC, we should know those kinds of things and also practice risk management behaviors that account for possible scenarios in which lower probability outcomes might end up playing out rather than the higher probability outcomes.


I agree with these ideas.. except to the extent that you (ginsan) seem to believe that the long term causes a guaranteed that you are going to end up being profitable, which it does not.

Having one source of income is never advisable. Everyone should have at least 3 to 4 source of income, this way you can be able to face life without much difficulties financially. Like myself I have 2 at the moment and I am hoping to make it up to 3 before the end of next year. Anyone that has one source of income is like sitting on a time bomb.

Your father is a wise man and he has laid a very good foundation for you to follow. Not everyone would be so wise like your father. Many will settle for the salary they are getting from the government work and wouldn't bother diversifying their source of income. Honestly It reminds me of my dad too who had a plantation of palm trees, plantain and banana. He was making so much money there when he was alive. Now my eldest brother is managing those estates and gives me some money from the business which I use in investing in bitcoin and also in my other business that I have.
I intend building a house from the money I will make from bitcoin some day and name the house after my late dad, because it's the money from the legacies he left behind that I have been using to invest in bitcoin. I keep adding bitcoin to my bag whenever I receive my money from my elder brother who run my late dad's business.

There is something I am not getting correctly here although not that I am trying to deviate from the right topic rather but only trying to call your attention towards your post here. You said you take money from your father, did you directly inform him that those money are for investment or your upkeep. Because if you wanna returned the money to your father it's assumed that it was the money he gave you for investment and not your upkeep or even though you have to surprise him it should be at least he has pre-knowledge where the money is entering to enable him increase the investment plan.

Maybe you regularly takes 50$ per week or months as the case maybe, if he has the good knowledge of bitcoin he would release a higher amount other than the aforementioned amount so I will advise you to also inculcate your father at least to also have the light from bitcoin instead of focusing on his farm business and government work which I know the world is revolutionizing where we do not longer sale farm products locally but through digital means.

Every investment has a risk of loss, but at least in Bitcoin we can minimize losses by not selling it when the price goes down. Yes, perhaps among those who are still laypeople, of course, they think that investing in Bitcoin has a bigger risk because the price fluctuates, but the loss is purely due to their own decision. Maybe those who lose are those with weak hands who are unable to survive when the market is down.  such actions could result in them incurring losses if they sell it. In long-term investments, of course they are ready for all the consequences they will face. They must have a target to achieve big profits and not sell when the market is red.

In comparison, Bitcoin can have a greater ROI compared to other investments and this has been proven by the increase in the price of Bitcoin which reached $69k at the previous ATH. So, don't assume that Bitcoin will give you profits quickly. To achieve big profits, we need to be patient and ready to invest in the long term. Buying aggressively and taking advantage of falling price opportunities allows you to profit more efficiently when the market becomes bullish.

Yeah is obvious that as a less privilege it will be almost impossible buying one whole Bitcoin at a time but however there is a very chance that if you give yourself a target you can achieve it, that's why investment on Bitcoin is not like stock investment that would require you to invest a huge sum of money, but on the contrary even if you don't have much money to invest on Bitcoin but you have a target or goal to have a certain amount of Bitcoin in the future could easily achieve it by adjusting yourself in any amount that suit your financial state and keep accumulating with a targeted number of years you will see yourself as a holder of Bitcoin.

There is no doubt that the future of Bitcoin is looking bright. In my country, there have been discussions at various stages of government on how to harness the power of blockchain technology. Even though Bitcoin have not been legalised in many countries including mine, there is a growing interest especially in the underlying technology and that is a good publicity for Bitcoin.

I wouldn't say for sure that Bitcoin have had deep penetraion in terms of usage especially integrating into businesses. Remember most of these businesses are registered and regulated by the governments and global financial systems that are still reluctant to accept Bitcoin. If peradventure Bitcoin becomes regulated, I'm confident that there will be massive adoption of Bitcoin by many big institutions and cooperations.

However, there is some merits in your statement that Bitcoin is being widely used in activities such as remittances, and other cross border payments. It is even Bitcoin that gave rise to the boom in online casinos and betting playforms.

The truth is nobody can say for sure what will happen in the future but from all observations, we can guess based on the information we have now Bitcoin's future is very promising and reliable. It's undeniable that the underlying technology is really innovative and has the potential to change the way we do business and interact with each other and the decentralization of Bitcoin is a powerful feature that sets it apart from traditional currencies and other digital currencies. However, the growing acceptance of Bitcoin by businesses and some countries is a sign that it's here to stay. Interestingly, Bitcoin is already being used for things like remittances, international payments, and online shopping too.

No matter what profession we are in or what financial situation we are in, we should always think of alternatives to our financial income. When we have multiple sources of financial income, if one source of financial income stops, we will still get financial support from another source. I look up to my father and I always try to follow my father.

My father is a government employee and he belongs to the first grade salary of our country he gets good money salary at the end of the month but he is not satisfied with that much. We have a village house where my father has dug several ponds and there my father has been making good profit from fish farming for several years and we also have several chicken farms and a small cow farm. My father earns every month from his village home business to earn more than the salary he gets from his government job. He gave me financial freedom but he told me to spend money in the right place in the right way. My father is working as well as running several businesses and I am investing his money in bitcoins instead of misusing it. 

I have a plan now that I will never waste the money I take from him but I will invest a part of that money in Bitcoin and keep that investment for a long time. After investing in Bitcoin for a long time I have a dream that one day I will hand over a huge amount to my father and tell him that I did not spend your money in the wrong place at all.

Tension is natural but you must be able to control it, if one does not engage in investment then it will not add any wealth and keeping money in fiat is not an investment but will continue to be depleted by inflation every year.

Well... All of that must be carefully planned and with an increase from other sources of income because this is important to increase your investment to grow the investment portfolio, any other funds then it must be prepared and manage it well if you are able to do so then the investment journey with DCA accumulation will not be too complicated because you yourself have managed it well.

What to do: Never leave work because every time the monthly salary will be your needs, look for other income of course this will increase your aggression towards bitcoin so that investment continues to grow, manage funds as well as possible, reserve funds must be ready at least 3-6 months to cover it.

It can be said that when they have other sources of income, at least expenses will be balanced between investments and your needs during the month because there is no more severe strain because they have adjusted from other income.

Yes, it is better to increase income opportunities first rather than investing directly with mediocre money, then it will not be in line and end up breaking up halfway because the money used is not sufficient for investment anymore, while by increasing income sources we can more freely set up investment plans and emergency funds, there is no greater tension because income has been increased so it is more sufficient to start investing.

One who is interested in learning should spend time on it but one who has no interest in learning I think there is no point in wasting time on him unnecessarily.  
Your friend's activities like this reminded me of my childhood when the teacher would try hard to teach me about certain subjects but I would not try to learn them. At that time I did not try to learn the teacher gave me some scolding and the next day took another lesson here the teacher did his work and took his salary at the end of the month only I did not learn from the middle. I cheated then, because of cheating I could not learn about that subject but the loss was mine and not the teacher's. If I had paid attention back then and asked the teacher questions about things I didn't understand, I might have known a lot more than what I know now. I didn't understand then like I do now, if I understood then like now I would never have skipped my studies.  


Your friend is not young enough to catch him and teach him about investing. Your friend must be willing to learn, if he is not interested in learning but you are more interested in teaching him, no matter how hard you try to give him good ideas about investing, he will never accept your good ideas.  

First discuss the general issues about investment with him directly, tell him that if his money gets damaged after investing then you are not responsible because he has to take the risk of his money. And to clarify the matter you can tell him that the amount of money he invests he should forget the illusion of money anything can happen with this money. If he accepts these and expresses interest in investing, then you spend time on him.

Since the beginning of investing in any type of asset having a balanced income is the main thing. But we realize that not everyone is in an ideal position in terms of investment. But still try to force themselves to cut mediocre funds and put them into Bitcoin. As a result, it is difficult to implement consistent investment. For example, lately my income has decreased because the agricultural business is being hit by a long drought. Automatically affects the investment that I have been running so far. This simple example shows how important it is to have a source of income. I who felt quite calm now began to worry that the next few months could not increase the value of investment in Bitcoin.

On the contrary some people built their houses starting from small without having large account balance at the beginning. Some started by just moulding few blocks, from their they do more until they achieved their target of building  a house over several years. In the ongoing war between Isreal and Hamas, I saw a video of a man crying that the house he spent 40 year to build have been destroyed and I was shocked to realise that someone can build a house for that long. It is not a good situation to be in but I'm just letting you know that financial situation can make people do things differently. It is all about planning and being determined.

The only difference between what you are saying and why I feel that such comparison is not necessary is that while Bitcoin is an investment, building a house is a necessity unless perhaps you are making the comparison on the basis of someone going into real estate which is also an investment. In this case, it cost a lot of money to get started and the money invested could yield different and better results if injected into Bitcoin.  Nevertheless, it is a think of individual knowledge, understanding  and preference.

Perhaps you seem to misunderstood his points because he was not actually comparing buying Bitcoin with the same as buying a house, perhaps from my little understanding from the point he is trying to make is that in everything we do has a process to undergo before starting or getting to the destination, and that even if in times of building a house is difficult to start and completing it immediately on less is someone that has other means of income.

And referring it to Bitcoin investment it will be very difficult for someone to buy one full Bitcoin at a time on less is someone that's very wealthy but however others could gradually achieve it with a normal DCA strategy by buying a bit by bit maybe with the target of 10 years it could be achieved.

I don't see buying bitcoin as the same thing with building a house. This is because when you want to build a house, you must have a huge amount of money to start with, but bitcoin doesn't need that just a small percentage from your income will get you started as long as it doesn't affect other budgets for the monthly. With some amount, you can use it to continue buying over a long period of time to increase your bitcoin portfolio.

To build a house is very expensive and needs experts in various areas, but bitcoin investment doesn't need a third party, as long as you know how to save some money from your income for something important that you want to achieve. You can also be investing that money into bitcoin and assume that the important thing you want to have is to reach your bitcoin target in a given timeline, let's say from four years and above. This is why the DCA strategy is recommended and the best for everyone but more in favour of the the low income earners who cannot lump sum. The rich has also admire this strategy and those of them that have the passion to keep on buying bitcoin are using the DCA method too.

Indeed, this is a real example if we look at the life of building an average house, which we rarely see unless it is someone who has enough funds and is an established entrepreneur.

Well, inspired by that too. Maybe when it comes to investing in BTC, people are rarely able to buy at once, for example 1 BTC. Well, with the DCA method this is another way to get there. although little by little and the times are also supportive for now it is still cheap because BTC is still on its way to a new ATH. Possible.

Your intentions are good but if somebody is not understanding you despite your hard work then better spend time on someone who is willing to understand what you are trying to say.
Investment is not a bed of roses that you invest one day and next day or week you will get the profit. Those who are successful investors today have spend initial time and effort in understanding how this works. Bitcoin is a good investment even then we have to device a strategy that works for us.
One more thing is, we all have different way of looking at things so it is not necessary that something that work for you will work for me.

Yes I understand that it is not your responsibility but as he is your friend so if you can give him some investment ideas now even though it is a little difficult then one day he will definitely remember you and he himself will remember this benefit of yours without knowing it. This time of your friend is the beginning of investing so he is asking such questions when he has some idea about investing and once he has some understanding about investing you will see that he is not asking such questions anymore. We have enough knowledge about investment so investment seems very easy to us but for a new member investment is very difficult in the beginning. Your friend may be thinking that the present time is the time to gain. That is why he is only saying repeatedly that if your investment is profitable then why his investment will not be profitable. Try to teach him about long-term investing as well as give him a little bit of investment ideas every day because if you try to teach him too much in one day, he won't be able to absorb so many ideas in one day. 

As you are an investor you must understand if he is interested in learning, if he is interested in learning then you can spend time on him but if he is not interested in learning then I think your journey of giving him investment ideas ends here. 

The investor has to bear the full risk of the investment, the person giving the investment idea to a new person has no vested interest in it, he can only give the idea to an investor. If the mind-set of a new investor is such that after making an investment he will blame the loss on the investor who taught him about investing, I think he should refrain from giving the idea of investment relationship.

There can be several factors to consider the extent to which someone might be overinvested into bitcoin, and even though a person is overinvested, the way that they are overinvested may well not have to end up in putting their own finances in considerable stress or peril, but maybe investing a 20% or 30% allocation into bitcoin rather than your having had planned to invest 10% to 15%, so maybe you are not in peril, but your position size is much larger than what you had planned.

Sure some of this might not make any sense for some of the guys who might ONLY have bitcoin as their ONLY investment, so then they might merely need to think in terms of how much of their cashflow they are putting into bitcoin and likely you mentioned if they are putting their monthly expenses in jeopardy or maybe ONLY having 3 months of an emergency fund rather than 6 months or more.. so some of these questions of being overinvested can be on the margins rather than absolute movements into an irresponsible approach.

Another thing could be that if your bitcoin is getting to levels in which it constitutes 50% or more of your annual income and you have no other investments besides cash, you might need to consider if there might be some ways to diversify without necessarily going into shitcoins.. and sure maybe you can play the BTC accumulatoin to even higher numbers such as 1x or more of your annual income, and perhaps when it starts to get to those kinds of levels if you do not have access to investing into equities, bonds, property or commodities, then the only other thing that you have is cash, and sure some folks will keep some value in cash (maybe the dollar instead of their local fiat), but even keeping in the dollar and/or dollar equivalencies  will loose value over the long term, but it may well be one of the better ways of dealing with BTC's volatility if you end up holding so much of your own networth in bitcoin as probably your BTC will continue to grow, and if dollars are the ONLY thing that you are able to hold to offset bitcoin volatility, then you should be holding much more than 3-6 months of emergency expenses, maybe you have to double that, so if the BTC price is dropping you will have that money to buy on dips perhaps having some for buying all the way down to 20% lower than the 200-week moving average.. but even if you are using some of that money for buying bitcoin on dips, you also have your emergency funds that maybe would continue to be larger and so you might not even risk having less than 6 months of an emergency fund once you get to those higher levels of BTC accumulation and if BTC happens to be your only asset.. yeah you want to keep accumulating it, but you have to hold more cash if you have not figured out some other investments (not referring to shitcoins, except maybe less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings)..


You do not seem to be framing this in "long-term" investing kinds of ways.  Long term investors do not necessarily need to consider about any harvesting, even though sure they may transition out of accumulation and into maintenance which would likely thereafter start to involve selling on the way up and maybe even making sure that some of your investments are sufficiently diversified.. so the consumption may well be included in there too.. but there would need to be some ways of transitioning into a kind of maintenance, and if that means you are at or near fuck you status, then maybe those could be ways of harvesting, or if maybe you are not thinking in terms of fuck you status, then I am not sure how much we would be on the same page in terms of how to think about the various harvesting or maintenance or just the options that any of us likely have when we have been in bitcoin long enough and we have accumulated enough to be able to experiences some of the extra freedoms that come from transitioning more into maintenance stage riather than accumulation stage.


Well, if we look at the fact that we might ONLY be able to invest $100 or less per week, and then that it would take $200 per week for 10 years to have some kind of chance of reaching 1 BTC, then maybe we have to acknowledge that 1 BTC is not realistic, and maybe we should be shooting for 0.5 BTC or something else that is more reasonable.  Sure, there are likely balances between creating realistic goals and also being able to achieve the goals, so there could be some goals that might be out of reach, but they are aspirational goals and we might say to ourselves that it does not seem too likely that I am ever going to get to 1 BTC in 10 years, and so I am shooting for 0.5 BTC in 10 years.. and if I reach 0.5 BTC earlier then, I can reassess the situation.

Another thing might be to exstablish the goal in terms of dollars, so that you might say that I am going to invest between $50 and $250 into bitcoin per week for 10 years, and I expected to on average invest more than $100 per week, so I should be able to have $52k invested into bitcoin after 10 years.. If things go well then I will end up having more than that then amongst the better of the scenarios would be that I could get up to $130k invested, and surely the worse case scenario would be having around $26k invested... but the base case is an expectation of having had invested $52k after 10 years.

That is a flexible goal and it is in terms of dollars rather than in terms of bitcoin, which likely makes more sense especially since it is difficult to know what the BTC price is going to be... and if things change for us along the way, such as our income increases and/or our expenses decrease,  then maybe we are able to change the range to be from $150 per week to $400 per week because we have been able to increase our disposable income along the way and to strike a balance that we believe would be better for our situation and allow us to adjust our targets too, depending on when the new plan goes into place, and these kinds of adjustments could end up happening several times within a 10 year time frame.

The extent to which we create too much stress upon ourselves is a product of our own choosing.. especially if we are setting our own goals rather than letting someone else tell us what our goals should be.


It cannot necessarily be easy to talk with people about how to invest for the long term, and even starting out with 4-10 years or longer might not be enough.  I can say that I invested in bitcoin for 10 years, and this is my level of profits, but the fact that bitcoin performed well over the last 10 years does not mean it is going to perform similarly in the next 10 years, so surely investment strategies have to be adjusted to the person and even a realization that it might take longer than 10 years to really start to feel compounding effects, even if someone is starting right now.

There is ONLY so much hand holding that any of us should be willing to do, especially since each person needs to be responsible for his/her own investment choices, and it might not be a good idea to get into an investment advisor position with such a person, and even investment advisors likely are not able to guarantee results, and they make sure that the client is making the choices or agreeing to the allocation strategies.  Investment advisors tend to take a fee which could be a flat fee or it could be a percentage of the earnings or maybe in some cases, it is both.

Although it is not my responsibility, I am trying hard enough to give my friend an idea about investing but some of his questions bother me. No matter how much I tried to convince him about investing, he just kept asking me one question over and over again that if I can make a profit from my investment then why can't he make a profit from his investment if he invests. Every time I asked him to learn about investing first, he misunderstood me and told me I didn't want him to invest. Still patient and tried to convince him, I shared with him my beginnings in convincing him about investments. I told him like this that you are getting my support in starting but when I started investing I didn't get other's support or any other investor explained me about investing like this but still I am successful in investing only because of my efforts. I told him you will get all investment support from me but you have to try.

When I ask him about long term investment he tells me if my investment is profitable now why should he hold it long. I cannot convince him that investing is not as easy as he thinks it is. It's not like I invested and then I sold my investment but I invested and again when I got money I increased my investment that's how I increased my investment and held it for a long time only then I am now somewhat successful from my investment. Maybe it will take me some time to explain to this friend that I have to hold on to it for a long time because if I get excited about the questions he asks, I might not be able to give him a full understanding of investing. Realizing this, even after he asked the same question several times, I kept calm and tried to explain it to him again.