Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 349. (Read 108526 times)

So here we are today presented with the theme of the thread which I was holding out
for, a perfect "buy the dip" time. The market is $35500 down from ~$37200. This is
what I have been waiting for.

And if it dips further I'll buy again at a further discount. Some people will say there isnt
a whole pile of difference between the two in $1000 but if accumulation is the goal and DCA
practiced all the little savings add up to something worthwhile.

Lol, so you are not investing, people invest for long term to get success in investment and build good life. If I hold 1 Bitcoin then of course it will be held for the future. The plan is that we hold Bitcoin by investing in the DCA method. Without a purpose in life you will never reach your destination. So it is better to hold Bitcoin for the future by targeting the DCA method.

I clearly said in my post that I support and I recommend doing DCA so what are you on to quoting it and being defensive about DCA? Well, there's a guarantee that your money saved for months will last because I said that we should just make more money in our jobs which should've implied that you will be able to comfortably save money without any worries that you're going to spend it quickly.

There seems to be a mistake in this because seeing from the situation the view that I got actually for the hodl problem is clear that it is only for the determinant of the target we want to achieve not as a whole to stay in bitcoin forever because we must realize that this is an investment and we expect profit so there must be a target that we want to achieve such as the time period or the profit we want to get so there is a need for hodl for that.
In addition, actually when talking about strategy, of course there must be a mature strategy from the start because if in the end you take the wrong step when taking a strategy at the beginning you are in bitcoin then you may not be optimal in terms of the results we want to achieve. I will take an example here. Suppose we want to do DCA but the nominal that we set to do DCA at the beginning is too imposing because it does not match your economic situation (greater than your income) then indeed it will not be optimal because the DCA that you do can be stopped halfway because the nominal that you determine to do DCA is greater than income and actually hampers your economy.

Actually, when talking about this, especially for DCA, I don't think it's necessary to say digital currency because in the end, the most suitable thing to associate with DCA is only bitcoin, not for others because you have to realize that digital currency has a lot of scope and not just for cryptocurrencies and even cryptocurrencies have a large scope because there are so many sub there such as bitcoin or shitcoin, especially in our current discussion, it has also led to one point "bitcoin" so discussing digital currency and combining it with DCA is too far in my opinion because the scope is too big.
On the other hand I will not question the strategy whether it is DCA or indeed a lump sum because everyone has their own strategy when buying bitcoin but if it is with minimal financial conditions then the suggestion is to stay in DCA not with others especially Lump sum because however when you wait for the price that you think is suitable it takes a long time especially waiting for bitcoin to crash again when the situation is not possible then it would be better to do DCA comfortably.

Hahahahaha   You are fighting with the hypothetical.  I was attempting to describe the rationale of a person who had gone through three years of investing and maybe even invested twice as much as he told his spouse that he was going to invest, so for whatever reason, he is feeling bad because he was so obsessed with reaching a 1 BTC target that he ended up neglecting other things in life.. This is a fictional situation that I create, and sure I am trying to be somewhat real in the creation of the scenario, so I doubt that it is a good idea to fight with something that I kind of made up to try to put someone into such an overaccumulation position/dilemma while also trying to make it relate to current BTC price performance and/or facts about the current BTC market.


I was not saying that this hypothetical guy got into shitcoins, but instead I said that the guy stopped buying BTC every week and he ended up accumulating $2,100 in the last month and a half .. and so yeah, maybe it was a bit rash to sotp buying BTC, and maybe I could have come up with some other kind of circumstance in which the guy no longer had the cashflow or something like that, but I do think that sometimes guys will get themselves into situations in which they feel that they need to stop DCA, and maybe the better solution could have had been to cut his DCA in half, which is something that I mentioned that the guy would be considering in comparison to some of his other available options, that I also mentioned his current thinking on the topic of taking a break between $24k and $60k... at least for now. .and having had also considered a potential 6 month break, but maybe he could resolve the matter after a mere 2.5 months. .which is where such hypothetical person is at currently... 2.5 months of taking a DCA break and allowing cash to accumulate.

I wonder where they got the idea from that holding means "hold on for dear life" I mean how did dey arrive at this conclusion, though we know bitcoin is more of long term holding but how can someone hold bitcoin without having a plan from the start or along his/her accumulation journey, they say " if you fail to plan you plan you to fail" so a holder without a goal to achieve with his/her bitcoin by the end of their accumulation journey is either making investment for their children/next of kin, that is if they have his mnemonic phrase and private key or they are just making investment  to keep the system running if anything happens to them.


I don't think over accumulating bitcoin even after setting an accumulation target should make the person feel pretty bad because, having such a great bitcoin portfolio is the dream of many investors, both new and old, it should be consider a privilege because your having 1 complete original coin. Slowing down would be the worst option, why would any one reduce their bitcoin accumulation for any shitcoin?

I think that I already addressed the question in the first few sentences of my earlier post.

>>>>>"That is bullshit.  

HODL does not mean "hold on for dear life"

That was some no coiner gambler who came up with that characterization of HODL in order to wrongly imply some level of gambling and/or panic/stress that a HODLer needs to have."<<<<<<<

And, I went on to say more in response to the whole idea, attempted to put the idea of HODL into various contexts regarding when it might apply in response to some of what Hewlet had said about HODL.


Sure.  That is a reasonable interpretation.


That's true, but I also am a BIG advocate of continuing to accumulate BTC, but sure there may well be sometimes when you are out of money or that you need your money for other things, so in that case it may well be better to HODL rather than selling your bitcoin, and if you are not in a position to buy then so be it.. just wait out the period until you might later be in a position to buy.

Sometimes a guy may have over accumulated BTC, so sometimes in those cases, it might be better to just HODL through some rough periods in BTC's price movement.  

Let's say that in mid-to-late 2020, someone had an overall investment portfolio of $100k, but that person did not have any BTC, so starting on around September 1, 2020, that person started to fairly aggressively buy BTC with about $120 to $220 per week, depending on cashflow and other circumstances, and maybe their budget should have had been that they ONLY should be buying around 10% to maybe 15% of BTC over the next year or two, but it ended up that by late August 2023, the person had accumulated a whole bitcoin, and maybe mistakes were made too so that the cost for getting that whole bitcoin was right around $30k...

so the person is feeling pretty good about having had accumulated a whole bitcoin in three years, but feeling pretty bad because s/he had invested way more than expected into bitcoin as compared to the rest of his her investment portfolio, and so s/he is starting to feel that his/her obsession to get a whole bitcoin had created some financial and psychological problems.. but the severity of the problems were still in some kind of a manageable range, and so the person needed to create a plan for going forward.

Maybe over the past three years, the total investment portfolio went up a bit in value and currently, the investment portfolio is $150k to $158k  ($120k non-bitcoin investments and $30k bitcoin ($35k to $38k in bitcoin based on recent BTC prices)).. so in the past several months, the person still feels way overinvested in bitcoin, so in recent times is just HODLing his/her bitcoin and not buying any more and not selling any either, but considering that maybe later, s/he might decide to continue with BTC investing, but at this moment s/he believes that s/he is a bit overexposed to bitcoin, even though the current BTC holdings are in profits, but s/he does not want to sell any bitcoin until it is at least more than 2x to 3x in profits, and even if s/he starts to sell BTC at something like a $60k to $90k prices, the projected amount sold would likely end up being just fractions of the valued of his/her BTC holdings, so largely the person may well be thinking that s/he might not want to accumulate any more BTC until some point later down the road.. either after the BTC has gone into the $60k to $90k territory or maybe if the BTC price were to drop below $24k, then maybe there is some fund that is being built up to buy BTC just in case that might happen.. but other than that, the plan is to just HODL through the various BTC prices between $24k and $60k unless something ends up changing in his/her overall situation..including another scenario in which s/he might invest in the non-bitcoin portion of his her investment portfolio until perhaps the value of that might go up to above $200k, which might trigger him/her to again rethink if s/he might start to buy BTC again at that time, if such events were to play out.  

These might not even be the right decisions for this person, but it is a HODL scenario, and I am not trying to point out any concrete actions that have to happen with such a person, but merely describing a kind of scenario in which a BTC accumulator might decide to outline some scenarios to just HODL through such BTC prices between $24k and $60k.. and or if the BTC price does not break out of that price range in the next 6 months, in one direction or another, then a reassessment might be due to take place in April 2024..  

Since about early September 2023, this same person was putting around $150 to $200 per week into a separate fund in order to be able to have money built up to either buy more BTC on the dip later on or to buy BTC at various points that such buying might be triggered, but for now, there is a bit of stress that needs to be resolved in terms of having had invested about 50% more into BTC as s/he had wanted to invest into BTC.. so there is a period of time in which that might need to resolve.

Another thing that this hypothetical person could do is to reduce his DCA by half.. so instead of buying between $120 and $220 per week of BTC, s/he might to start to feel more comfortable with buying between $90 and $120 per week, especially if s/he had been allowing the cash build up since the beginning of September, then s/he might have around $2k that has built up in his/her cash fund and maybe part could be dedicated towards buying on dips and the other part could continue with DCA, even though s/he is still feeling somewhat overallocated into BTC.


Well if you perceive that you have enough BTC, then HODL might be amongst the best of the ways forward.


Ongoing buying of BTC within a kind of budget and also creating scenarios to buy or to sell BTC can surely help to deal with feelings of FOMO..and sometimes people will feel FOMO because they ended up being way too whimpy in their level of BTC investment... so if we take the above guy and if he had invested only half of the amount that he planned around $15k rather than $30k into BTC over the past three years, he might have felt anxious about our recent move from $27k to $38k in that he did not buy enough BTC, but since he had already decided that he had overspent on BTC, he was largely just letting his cash reserves build up and not necessarily going to FOMO into BTC, even though surely any newbie can get into a FOMO situation because of the euphoria of BTC price pumps... but I still think that the FOMO is worse for the whimpy investors as compared to the relatively (and hopefully reasonably) aggressive investors..

Yes, buying sauce with DCA is a good combination of strategies for accumulation.
I don't know if you did it or you just told someone who basically has been doing it for a long time. Of course I am the one who uses that strategy so far and I am not afraid to do it as long as I have the budget. There is no need to wait for the ship to break, I mean the opportunity is always there depending on how you take advantage of it.

Today I saw a good dip to make accumulation, I have done it and only left 20% of the budget in case the decline continues. The anticipatory step when I was about to sleep was to place a buy order at the dip I want.

In this thread selling bitcoin is out of it because selling bitcoin is for traders and not for hodlers. How will you sell some fraction of your investment when you have not reach your bitcoin target. This means that you are not focus towards your bitcoin accumulation goal or you lack proper planning that have made you to investment aggressively and is short of cash, and your are left with no option that to sell.

It is not advisable as a newbie who just started his bitcoin journey to start talking or thinking of selling so early, ot means that he doesn't understand the basic concept of how to invest in bitcoin and make profit and such people will get distracted or might even make wrong decisions that will make them to regret their actions. This is why you should prevent and avoid whatever that might make you sell part of your bitcoin during accumulation period, by making sure that you figure out the right percentage that you will use to buy regular that won't affect your monthly expenses and you should have emergency funds in reserve to take care of whatever challenges that are bound to occur in life.

 Staying focus on your bitcoin target goal is what will help you control your emotions when you know that it is important for you to reach your bitcoin target no matter the ups and downs in the market. This is because if you let your emotions to control you on every news you hear, you will get distracted. This is why the DCA method is their to combat whatever fear that our emotions would bring because you will see your bitcoin portfolio increasing with your own eyes.

No it's not, but I'm absolutely confident many of those people who sold their Bitcoins during November, 2022 are definitely thinking that they made the wrong "choice" by selling Bitcoin. Plus I don't give financial advice to people except "buy the DIP and HODL", but if I were to give someone any advice, it would be = Don't sell your Bitcoin unless it's for life-changing money. Keep HODLing ser, don't let yourself be front-run by BlackRock, YOU do front-running.

Thanks for being so explanatory to Hewlet. Although i did not see where you mentioned or stated the full meaning of HODL "Hold on For Dear Life," I was curious to hear what you will say it is as i have my own meaning which is as simple as HOLD LONG. HODL became the epitome of an investment approach to Bitcoin that avoids trading based on short-term price movements and gains. This approach reflects inexperienced traders are likely to screw up their attempts to time the market and lose money or make less than those who simply hold their coins.

The HODLers only are interested in just a particular thing, which is to eliminate the emotional states that come with investing.  These states are popularly known to be FOMO (fear of missing out) FUD (fear of uncertainty and doubt). These fears have led to so many investors to have sell their Bitcoin at a lower value, resulting in losses or reduced profits for investors in the long run.

It's been a while I posted here but coming here and reading people's comment I got attracted to this your comment. I think you are getting it all wrong. holding BTC is not holding onto dear life. I think that is not the best phrase to use in discribing Bitcoin investment or holding. In as much as we talk about HODL, doesn't mean that manner. because it's creating another inpression on  bitcoin investment. It might be that you are trying to express your thoughts on the duration of how long it can last, but there are factors that you need to consider. Each investor has his investment duration, and has plan when to cash out some bulks to use for other things, but with this it sound as if one doesn't have any porpose for investment. When next you are trying to express what you mean, you should clearly state it, in other not to create another inpression on HODL.

Someone suggested that, when it comes to investment in Bitcoin, using the word "invest what you can afford to lose" is  not too suitable and makes it look like Bitcoin is gambling or some sort of unserious business. According to him, the phrase should be "invest such amount you can hold for long, at least five to ten years". I tend to agree with him because if we maintain the phrase of what people can afford to lose,  it means low income earners are not supposed to invest in Bitcoin because I doubt that they have some money they can through away even though they can afford to keep small fraction of their money in Bitcoin while expecting it will become something worthwhile in the future... this can be some sort of motivation. The various methods of Bitcoin accumulation being discussed so far are all aimed at encouraging people to invest some fraction of their money to save for the future (HODL).

That is bullshit.  

HODL does not mean "hold on for dear life"

That was some no coiner gambler who came up with that characterization of HODL in order to wrongly imply some level of gambling and/or panic/stress that a HODLer needs to have.

There are ways to set up your BTC investment strategies so that you do not need to fear prices, and if prices go down you get more sats for the amount of dollars that you are using to buy them.. so whether you buy on the dip or you DCA, you should well consider that if you start to run out of money and the BTC price is going down, then you may well need to HODL in those circumstances. .at least until you get more money, then at that point you might choose to buy some more bitcoin with your new cashflow.

There also might be some other times that you choose to HODL on the way up, and surely those are personal choices in regards to how much BTC that you might have had already accumulated, and there could be some stress in terms of trying to decide what to do, even if the BTC price might be going up.  

Panic can come at various points in time if you have not set forth some kind of reasonable plan and attempted to mostly follow the plan even when there might come about some circumstances that had been previously unexpected, but if you have an overall solid plan, you should be able to figure out some kind of a reasonable approach to what to do in regards to your BTC, even if you had not completely planned for the situation that is being experienced that might end up going beyond expectations.  HODL.. is one of the potential solutions, but it is not the ONLY solution, so when and how HODL might be applied may well differ from person to person, but hopefully we are not getting ourself into emotional states that are too far gone that we start to believe that HODL itself is a kind of an emotional state rather than a decision that is within one of our plan options.

Long term HODL should also not be too emotional, even though maybe there should be some decently good feelings if you may have built up your BTC position to such a status that it is giving you more options, even if you might not be choosing to exercise your options, but sometimes when we have a decently sized BTC stash, we might well feel free to either accumulate large amounts of cash or even to invest into some other kinds of assets with our incoming cashflow because we have largely already established our BTC position. .and we choose to mostly and perhaps not exclusively HODL it.

By the way, the timeline of NOT expecting quick returns may well likely help to establish that the first few years in bitcoin might be the most difficult while building up a bitcoin stash, and surely there are going to be some members who take a couple of cycles to build up their BTC stash. .and there is nothing wrong with that - especially considering that sometimes we may well have difficulties to either increase our income or to decrease our expenses in order that we might be able to buy more bitcoin, so we just have to figure out a level of purchase that is suitable for us.. and that there may be a lot of holding time that accompanies the building of a BTC stack.. including establishing ways to secure our stash through our own self-custody, even if we might not start out with self-custody until we learn some of the available options and figure out which options might be suitable to our own situations.

Although the phrase "HODL what you can afford to lose" has become a cliche in the world of Bitcoin investment and other types of crypto investment,  an average person doesn't agree with this. The major reason why an average person makes any investment is because they want to make profit out of it either in the long or short run and so, most people don't even want to listen to the hard reality that loss is a serious variable to be put into consideration while making investment of  
 any kind. And you find some persons investing all their earnings and within a few months, they start expecting their investment to yield returns and if there is a bit of fluctuation in price at that moment, they become troubled and may sell out their investment due to poor investment strategy and plan.

As simple as this sounds and as frequently as it is being reiterated on this platform, people still make unguided and miscalculated investment that makes them very uncomfortable within few months into the investment and will be panicking and looking for news and thread suggesting that the bitcoin price has skyrocketed overnight. Maybe the term HODL  should be written in full with it explanation attached to it always. It meanshold on to dear life I had to emphasise the dear life so people will know that they shouldn't just expect a return overnight.

One thing is certain and that is, there will always be sellers and buyers of Bitcoin at all time. But one thing I will always tell those who are selling because of fear of market crashing down it that, those that you are selling to are they not affected by the same market down trends? Like you rightly said most of these people are novice and they don’t know that bear market is an opportunity to gather more instead of selling. Also some of these people were not properly educated about bitcoin investment, they always assumed it’s all about upward trends, so when they notice a little dip they began to panic and start selling. Their mentality is let me not lose everything, let me take whatever that is remaining. I don’t usually blame them most times, I blame whoever introduced bitcoin investment to them for not properly educating them about the volatility in bitcoin investment.

I am having trouble figuring out how your post relates to this thread.  We are not talking about shitcoins here.


We are not talking about trading here.


For sure this part is correct, and the more adventurous that anyone becomes with his/her ongoing bitcoin investing, then there may well need to be some kinds of ways to ensure that the cashflow cushion is sufficient, and so one way is to project out cashflows, and so variance in cashflows (which includes expenses) would not necessarily affect the emergency fund, it would just be protecting from variance, and so in that regard, emergency funds are rarely if ever tapped into, even though there could be a significant amount of variance in which some of the monthly expenses might not be coverable by monthly income and so then there may well be cushions to account for that variance.. and if it is mostly expected variance, then that would not be emergency funds... so people can structure these kinds of emergency funds and cashflow matters in a variety of ways in order to help prevent from getting into a pickle, and they may not realize if their system is inadequate until it ends up getting tested in extreme ways and then they will find out if they have enough money in their extra cashflow and also their emergency fund in order to NOT have to sell any BTC at a time that is other than their own choosing.

That is a notable point. One should at least be aware of the volatility of the cryptocurrency market before investing in Bitcoin. Dips can happen at any time and are inevitable, so keeping this in mind before you start could help you make decisions that will impact your investment. Before choosing to get involved, it is imperative to have a thorough insight and knowledge of how these things operate.

Again, When investing in Bitcoin, it's a good idea to use funds that you don't plan to use anytime soon. Since Bitcoin is obviously a long-term investment, it's also crucial to have emergency funds on hand in case you ever need to take care of an emergency. In that case, you would just think about using your backup funds rather than considering selling your Bitcoin to cover the expense.

Selling at DIP prices is of course not only a mistake but also due to a lack of good knowledge and most people who sell at DIP prices are of course panicking or perhaps in a state of urgency. For example, if he invests in Bitcoin, he doesn't use cold money, so at the same time he needs money quickly in a DIP market condition, so he is forced to sell it even though he is making a loss. This happens very often among novice investors.

The thing is, it's really strange if someone sells at the DIP price if there's no particular reason, that's why before we invest in BTC we have to learn first that BTC is for the long term so use cold cash or have other emergency funds.