Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 372. (Read 108461 times)

Bitcoin has never been correlated with stocks or any other assets, so the extent to which you and/or anyone else believed that bullshit is upon you, and this latest move did not prove anything that was not already (or should have been) more than apparent and clear if you look back at bitcoin's price history.  

So, yeah, a  lot of people like to talk about dumb shit in regards to bitcoin's correlation and/or bitcoin is (was) not performing well enough and a bunch of baloney and sure sometimes they can take clips of time and show proof of their arguments - but the mere fact that they are able to show proof that is convincing still does not mean you should believe it, especially if you have your own eyes, you should be able to spend about 5-10 minutes looking at charts to see that there may well be short term correlation at various periods, but surely hard to argue if looking at the longer period, and yeah, maybe it could take longer than 5-10 minutes to actually better understand some of the underlying reasons why bitcoin is different and what pushes its price such  as 1) the stock to flow model, 2) the 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and network effects (in the school of thought of [ur=https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-seven-network-effects-of-bitcoin/]trace mayer's seven network effects[/url])

Our most recent price move of around $5k in a day, or even $10k in a month or so, does seem to show what many of us already suspected, even though we can never really know when or how much the UPpity bursts are going to play out.


For sure no one can really tell you the extent to which you should temper your BTC buying in terms of always striving to prepare yourself for BTC price moves of either direction, and you should have some clues regarding how close you might be to your own personal fuck you status and/or how many BTC you have accumulated up until this point in light of your other personal circumstances.  Looking at the BTC price movements remains ONLY one relatively small part of the whole formula regarding what to do, even though so many folks seem to like to place a lot of emphasis on BTC price movements.

So you have to assess where are you at exactly:

BTC Accumulation stage

early, mid  or late


BTC portfolio Maintenance stage

early, mid  or late


BTC liquidation stage

shaving off some here and there, or wanting to get rid of most of it or all of it

Many members here are likely in one of the stages of BTC accumulation.. but surely some of us have progressed into maintenance stage, so surely we are much better off when we are in maintenance stage.. and each of us has to figure out when we get to each of these stages, which will also assist us in terms of figuring out how we might want to manage our bitcoin strategy according to where we are at.

The earliest stages of BTC accumulation likely need to mostly focus on DCA and just buy no matter what.. which might include lump sum buying and even front loading the investment a bit in order to get some skin in the tame, but after you start to develop somewhat of a BTC stash, you can start to attempt to be a bit more selective in your strategy and maybe lower the DCA amount and start to hold some fiat in reserves for buying on dips.

When we get these kinds of big price moves, many of us should likely realize that we are advantaged by having already gotten in, and being in BTC we are kind of resting on our past accumulation and our past aggressiveness in having had accumulated.. so whether you start to hone back on some of your DCA buys is not necessarily easy to answer.. because sometimes momentum like this just keeps going up, so we cannot be sure when it will stop going up and/or how much the correction will be once it stops going up. and so it becomes possible that the BTC price will not correct back down below current prices.. Surely I am not going to claim to know things like that, and some people are more than willing to tell you what they think BTC prices are going to do, yet our own critical thinking skills should help to inform us that there are likely decent odds that they might not be correct in whatever they are saying are the various scenario and sometimes the extent which they put a lot of certainty upon their scenario might cause you to question how they can know with such supposed certainty... is it squiggly lines or what?  

Surely it is true when the price goes up quickly it cannot really sustain itself, but still that does not necessarily mean that it won't continue to go up even further, at least for a while.. remember in April to June 2019, BTC prices went up 3.5x in 3 months, but then ended up correcting back most of that over a month or so. and then resumed up and had a few bounces, before we got to our abnormal March 2020 crash which also just ended up being a kind of fluke.. but we could not really completely know at the time of the March 2020 fluke that it was actually a bit of a fluke.


Of course, you have to decide for yourself what you are going to do, including if you think that there might be some value to lessen your DCA or to just keep your DCA in place.. and so maybe part of the question might be how far along are you in your investment journey. .. remember it frequently will take people close to 10 years to build up to 1 years of their income, that is presuming that they are putting away 10% of their investment income, and generally, you likely need in the range of 20-30 years worth of income to reach entry-level fuck you status.. that is a stage in which you don't have to worry about working anymore and that you can have some assurance that your investments can sustain you.

I cannot exactly tell you at what point that you feel that you need to get with your bitcoin holdings (and surely what else that you have) to suggest that cutting back might be a good idea. and surely we always should have some money (dry powder) available for buying on dips.. so will the BTC price dip or not. and is it worth it to make those kinds of adjustments at this stage.. BTC accumulators are going to decide differently in their attempts to balance these kinds of matters.. and some will end up being more correct than others, but are the correct for a reason or did they just get lucky?  

It is people that don't understand the potential of bitcoin that will think that inesting in bitcoin for a long term is a waste of time. I am having more confident on bitcoin now as I am seeing how the price of bitcoin is increasing within the twinkle of an eye and this makes me to be proud that I took a bold step to start my bitcoin investment when the price was 25k+.

I am coming up with a new strategy that I can use to accumulate bitcoin because my regular DCA method is still what I am using, but is like I might consider to stop and hodli, when the price surges higher than 35k with the 10% that I am using or maybe reduce it. This is my first experience in the market and I am learning a lot from it.

Bitcoin must outperform stock because of its volatine nature and the price of bitcoin will keep pumping till infinity, unlike stock.

Congratulations to those who are still consistent with DCA and see how exciting it will be when our portfolio increases. So when we are consistent we will see temporary results, and honestly this is a matter of pride for ourselves because what we maintain and fight for produces positive results. I believe this price will continue, Blackrock ETF is getting closer. The position where we should be but still realistic.

The question for those who do DCA consistently is whether the current price requires us to wait for a slight correction? Or still buy it at the current highest price? I just want to know how to choose and make the right timing decisions when faced with the Bitcoin bullish phenomenon.
Your suggestions are very valuable because telling each situation will have a positive effect and make me not alone in holding Bitcoin. (where I live, I'm the only one holding Bitcoin).

What a substantial move we have witnessed in Bitcoin price which was worth $5000 in a single trading session . Nobody was expecting such an impressive increase while stocks are falling. Bitcoin has shown its real color after a long time of uncertainty, and I was glad to see that Bitcoin is finally showing its independence from stock markets, and Bitcoin's prior correlation with other risky markets seems unrealistic, as it is hedge against inflation and dependable store of value.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-btc-price-breaks-34000-etf-excitement-grows

Yes, that's correct, I can say with confidence that bitcoin's growth prospects are very high at least now the evidence is visible in the market that Bitcoin has proven that society can reach consensus and the correct course correction has brought a new element to the discussion about money and value and has broken many known return models, changing the way we understand investments and returns and may not be applicable to traditional assets such as stocks or bonds.

I know that people have their differing strategies, yet the general ideas of trying to time the market would be to buy when the price is going down and to sell when it is going up.. .so usually you would not be buying when it is going up unless you were trying to make a lump sum buy in order to front load your buy prior to the price going up (if that's what you think the market is going to do)..

So in that regard, it does not make too much sense to DCA when the market is bullish.. except if you are just assuming that the market is going to keep going up because it is bullish, but that is not necessarily going to always be the case, and surely there are a lof of difficulties to figure out if the market is bullish or bearish.. which is part of the rationale of DCA that does not get too involved in trying to figure out if the market is bearish or bullish but only ends up focusing on whether you have discretionary income or not and then just deciding to buy based on how much of your discretionary income you want to use to buy BTC versus using it for some other purpose, such as consumption, or investing in something else versus saving it for some future purchase.


In markets and in investing, there are no guarantee to make a profit... and surely not even close to 100% guaranteed, even when it comes to an investment as great as bitcoin.  

It seems quite likely that you are quite likely to get yourself and/or someone else into trouble if you think and talk as if there are 100% guarantees in life (especially when dealing with the future).. but hey, whatever, you do you.

Bitcoin is the only currency where you are 100% guaranteed to make a profit whether you invest or hold it. Bitcoin was at $27000 last week as well but in just a few days Bitcoin has surged above $35000. The only ones in this market who bought and held during the dumping period got huge profits in this pumping situation. So if you want to get good profit in future you must buy in DIP market and HOLD for long term and sell when pumping time comes.

Using the DCA method when the market is bullish is certainly a good thing and also buying more when the market is bearish, but in investing in Bitcoin we need a long time to get a profit from the investment we make and we have to be patient with various market conditions. You are right, we must have a steady income so as not to interfere with the investments we make and we also really need a strategy to be able to collect and get profits from the investments we make.

So yep, just in a few short hours we went from the $29ks to the mid $34ks and that can be quite amazing how quickly price changes happen, and yep there were some forum members, even in this here thread, insisting upon good ideas to wait for further dips when we were in the lower $25ks, and even though none of us really can judge for their situation and/or to have enough information regarding if they are sufficiently prepared for UP, these can be fairly painful times for people who are waiting too much and/or who are whimpy in their bitcoin investment in terms of either being no coiners or low coiners, and even some of us who might feel that we had been more aggressive in our bitcoin accumulation, we will sometimes second-guess ourselves and speculate that "I could have gotten more," and sure it may well be true that almost any of us could have gotten more bitcoin when prices were lower, yet the fact of the matter is that we really cannot have high levels of confidence so we should be attempting to be prepared for either BTC price direction and be willing to live with our decision when the price moves against the direction that we thought to be more likely, but if at least we are preparing for either direction, we may well be able to accept that we did our best in our preparations based on the information that we had at the time, rather than looking back and having regrets regarding not getting as many bitcoin as we could have just a week ago when BTC prices were dipping into the $26ks and just around a month ago when we had BTC prices dipping into the $25ks

It can only be Bitcoin and nothing else, Bitcoin will always remain my first choice of investment because this is the kind of price movement you will see from a potential coin.

This Bitcoin current price chart explains why we shouldn't focus on knowing if the price will dip first before we start accumulating because there is every possibility of the price not getting to the level you targeted so however even with the current price is not too late to start accumulating so keep hitting the buy button while you can.

Source:  https://m.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/chart

Preparing for Bitcoin price movement is actually what I normally do, irrespective of my accumulation using DCA strategy I always make sure to have an extra diversification in such a way that I prepared myself by structuring most of my funds that if the Bitcoin market dips down I buy a certain amount and if increase i reduced by continuing my normal DCA.

So actually is a new strategy I started using now and is working for me, I utilize the opportunity when Bitcoin was at that consolidation zone of $27k to $28k when I checked my portfolio the funds I had could sustain me even if buying on Lump sum so I took advantage of the dip by buying a good amount of Bitcoin, and now considering the level of price of Bitcoin it was a good entry for me and since the price has gone up I have reduced my level of accumulation to my usual DCA strategy.

I agree with you because I have also been looking at past data of Bitcoin and taking note of how much Bitcoin I would have gotten using the same amount of money under various market conditions. Generally, any method of buying Bitcoin in a bullish market is good for those who want to see quick profits but not the best for those who want to hold for long because if peradventure bear market comes, price might fall below their entry point, putting then in huge negative and at this point it takes a great deal of courage, trust and faith in Bitcoin to hold a huge bag in negative throughout the bear market.

On the contrary, during consolidation or bear market, one can accumulate decent amount of Bitcoin at very low prices in such a way that any significant rise in price will easily put the entire portfolio in profits.

There seems to be good flexibility in your approach. To a large extent, this seems like buying the dip that many combine with the DCA method. It is actually a wonderful approach as it enable one take advantage of the discounted price.

when the bitcoin market is sideway or the bitcoin market is bullish then buying bitcoin using the DCA method is the most recommended thing, apart from that i also tried several other strategies such as buying more portions of bitcoin ^{(in fine words if the market is bullish i buy 1 but if the market bearish i buy 2)} when the market was heading towards bear.  However, it must still be emphasized, in order to prevent you from selling Bitcoin which you intend for long-term investment, you must have a stable income that supports your finances every month... surely we will all smile with our portfolio if we remain disciplined in implementing effective strategies in investing bitcoin.

I don't know about that. Once you get to a certain accumulation level you have way more options regarding how to manage and maintain your BTC holdings.  I frequently suggest to only sell small portions of BTC and to expect that the BTC price might never come back down below the price that you sold them.

Selling seems to be problematic when you are either thinking of it as a way to get more bitcoin and/or if you are still in your BTC accumulation phase, then you should consider spend and replace for any times that you do choose to spend (or sell) your bitcoin.

So one of my personal beefs has to do with members promoting trading (which is selling) BTC as if it were a way to accumulate more BTC than what would be possible by using various kinds of ongoing and/or regular buying tactics...or even tactics to increase your income in order that you have more disposable income in which you could choose to sell BTC.

I am also not against anyone doing whatever they like or taking whatever chances that they like, but when they are trying to proclaim that their way is the best without describing some of the potential trade-offs and the risks, then that especially becomes problematic when employing selling tactics in ways in which to attempt to accumulate more BTC.

I heard the first rules of bitcoin differently.. to  be something like 1) always talk about bitcoin, 2) never talk about your own bitcoin... but being in a forum like this, we do tend to talk about our own bitcoin, even though we might also attempt to be coy in the ways that we talk about our own bitcoin which are other ways to consider various hypotheticals and/or the situations of friends as talking points.


Personally, I can never really imagine selling more than a few percentage of my BTC stash at a time, especially in the earlier stages of BTC accumulation, even though it could be profitable to sell high and buy back lower, especially if you are able to figure out some kind of a system to be able to accomplish it without screwing up your overall BTC accumulation mindset.

Once you have a lot more bearings on both the size of your BTC stash and various aspects regarding how many you might need, then it is likely that you should be able to get away with selling certain amounts of your BTC stash at certain price points. but surely when you choose the amount of the BTC that you choose to sell, you have to be prepared for possibilities that the BTC price will continue to go up higher than your sell point and might not come back below your sell point.


It seems good to always be prepared for either price direction, so how much you choose to be prepared and how well you have your preparations set up in terms of how much BTC that you might buy at certain BTC price dip levels or how much you are just going to buy BTC no matter what is the price, or maybe you have your buys set up in a range and then you don't do anything in another range, but if you have ongoing cashflow coming in, then you should attempt to account for that and even account for how much extra cash coming in would trigger you to have to change some of your already existing  ideas (plans) in regards to whether and if so, how you are structuring your buys.

But I am a little calmer because I buy more BTC at a price of less than $ 27K, DCA that I do I do almost every week so I think I feel better today because BTC moves fast up to $ 31k, to wait for the best price to continue My DCA, waiting for BTC to be corrected first, if I fear today to buy at the current price it is less beautiful.

Understand DCA correctly, and use the strategy well so that your portfoliomy can smile broadly when Bitcoin has increased significantly, I would have most people smiled broadly because of their portfolio, it should be remembered that the longer you hold BTC, the more likely you get The advantage of the investment you make from BTC, don't be easily tempted by this simple increase then you sell your BTC, I think it's a stupid decision, there are still many surprising with BTC. Hold Your BTC Sir.

First rule of bitcoin, you never sell your bitcoin.

I remember I have bitcoin bought under 10k and when bull run started I see them at around 22k. Bitcoin later went up and touched 67k. When I sold my bitcoin I was happy that I have got double profit but later I regret selling all my Bitcoins.
I have learned from my previous mistakes and I do agree that there is no need to get excited after seeing 30k. 30k is the price we have seen so many times this year and we are not sure whether Bitcoin can cross 30k this time.


If you see price of Bitcoin then over the period it has gone up. In other words you are deemed to get success if you are a long term investor. I always say that invest as much as you can easily without putting yourself into too much stress. Also we must be happy the way we are investing, those who have big will definitely invest big. There is no reason to compare yourself with anyone.

To me am only sighting the incidence of bitcoin spot ETF as a kind of distractions because bitcoin is currently at $30,600 and none of the spot ETF application had been approved yet, the thing we should know is that each time there's a bull or bear market, people will always find something to attach for why it happened such way, all we can do now is to ensure that our bitcoin accumulation portfolio is well positioned towards the next bullrun if we have the ability to wait and hodl till that time comes in.

It is difficult to really have any kind of level of confidence regarding knowing that any of us have time to accumulate more BTC at prices that we had been able to accumulate bitcoin in the past 18 months or so... and people will sometimes start to get nervous when the BTC price is gravitating upwardly, which tends to show that those of us who had been continuing to buy and not delaying are likely in a much better place right now as compared to those who had been waiting too much upon dips and/or failing to act (meaning buy).

Sometimes bitcoin goes into a kind of punishing mode and just continues to go up without really having any meaningful dips, so that when we are thinking about this thread, we might be thinking to buy on the dip, but even that can sometimes be difficult if the BTC price ends up continuing to go up without any meaningful dips.

Of course there is potential resistance in the $31-$32k area, and personally I did not really consider that area to be too significant, even though the BTC price had gotten stuck there, and whether there is any resistance at various price points between $35k and $50k is yet to be seen, too.


Whether we suggest that the rich people (institutions) are buying all of the bitcoin or if we might have some other reason(s) about why the BTC price is going up, historically, there have been several instances in which the BTC price moved upwardly out of an historical range that it had been, but then thereafter, never did return to that previous price range, and people who had been delaying in their buying of BTC, or waiting for lower BTC prices prior to buying, ended up looking foolish in retrospect.  So yeah, we have had right around 18 months to be buying BTC below $35k... so how much longer is it going to last?  We cannot be sure.  Are there going to be further dips below $30k?  We cannot be sure.


You can ONLY invest as much as your budget will allow.. so whether are attempting to invest in a kind of aggressive way, or you are being more whimpy and waiting to see how bitcoin performs is surely up to you, and it seems to me that historically those who had chosen to be a bit more aggressive in their earlier years (without going over board) had tended to feel better about the performance that they witnessed later on, so maybe in 4-8 year, you are not going to be able to buy bitcoin (or satoshis) for even close to the same amount that you can currently buy them.. but yeah, if you do not have very much extra money, then there is ONLY so much that you can do in terms of aggressiveness without ending up putting yourself into a dangerous place (financially and psychologically).


Don't worry about being behind people who started before you and people who have more financial resources than you. It is likely inevitable that these conditions are going to exist.

There are plenty of people whom you are ahead of who are of similar economic status as you and who are failing/refusing to recognize bitcoin and/or invest, and there are likely plenty of people who are of much more affluent economic status than you , but your investing into bitcoin is likely going to end up surpassing a lot of them.. sure it is not guaranteed, but it still likely is a good place to be considering to put a decent amount of your discretionary income.

Agree with you this makes perfect sense and will probably be one of the problems of every bitcoin holder, we know that we will not live forever in the world, while something in the future is always unpredictable, one of which anyone will never know when they will die, while on the other hand they have promised themselves that one day they have to transfer the key to someone special in their life such as their own wife. Basically the facts that will happen will not always match what we plan, okay maybe they plan that they have to give the key near the time of death, but it will not always be like that, maybe you think that you will die while in the hospital in the treatment phase and at that time you will whisper your bitcoin secret key to your wife, this plan looks very neat. On the other hand, you will never know under what circumstances you will die, it is possible and very likely that you will die in an accident or any circumstances that do not allow you to get time to share the secret key with others, this makes perfect sense.

As you said "Many bitcoins will be lost because the holder is no longer alive" And in my opinion one of the alternatives that can be done is that I will give the secret key to my wife from now on, no problem and I have indeed said a very important short message to her, none other than this as an action to minimize things that cannot be avoided such as death. I will write the private key on a piece of paper and keep it in the most secure place along with telling my wife that if one day I die then open the box, it is an inheritance from me for our children someday.

That's a good plan mate, having a knowledge is one of most important factors that needs to be considered in everything we do including our investment because knowledge gives us the ability and understanding to no what we are investing on and the possibility of getting a return in the future.

So is actually a nice plan you have there because you no and believe on the potential of Bitcoin that's why you are accumulating for long time holding and also with the knowledge you have on Bitcoin no news can influence your accumulating decision, so trust me choosing Bitcoin for investment is the best decision to make.