Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 375. (Read 123464 times)

Ok.  sure.  If a person bought BTC in the $60ks, then he is expecting that there is a good chance that the BTC price will go up from there, but of course, since there is no guarantee about price, it is best not to expect ONLY one price direction, which is always the case.  The BTC price could go up or it could go down, and the fact that the BTC price had already gone up in the ballpark of 16x during that period, there is already ability to see that it had already gone up, but that also did not mean that the BTC price would end up going down, even though after the fact, we are able to look at the price and see what it ended up doing.

So any time that we enter into bitcoin we should be attempting to engage in similar kinds of assessments and preparations that the BTC price could go up or it could go down or it could go sideways, and what are we going to do in each of those scenarios.

We could start out with a DCA approach and a lump sum investment (that is a kind of front loading of the investment), so let's say for example that a person decided to front load his investment and to buy $12k worth of bitcoin at $60k, but then to DCA into bitcoin over the next 1-2 years another $14k to $28k, which surely might have ended up being $1k per month or $250k per week.

So he would have 0.2 BTC from the initial purchase in around early November 2021, and then over the next two years starting from the beginning of November at $250 per week, he would have bought right around 1.1205 BTC (average of right around $25k per BTC), and so the total would be $40k ($12k + $28k) invested, and a total BTC stash of 1.3205 BTC (average cost of about $30,300 and valued currently right around $58k), so even if he ended up messing up by front loading his BTC investment, his subsequent ongoing buying of BTC ended up bringing down his average costs per BTC quite a bit over the last nearly 26 months.

Of course, we don't know which way the BTC price is going to go, and we don't even necessarily know how our ongoing buying of BTC, whether DCA or maybe some other tactics might end up working out, but we can still attempt to prepare for  any of the potential BTC directions, even if we might front-load our investment a bit in order to prepare for UPpity, but then when the BTC price ends up moving against our expectations, we still just continue to buy and to build up our BTC position in light of our budgetary considerations.  The example still can work if we are dealing with differing amounts, but in this particular example, I try to describe what someone with $12k in cash might do and who has right around a $1k per month budget for ongoing buying of BTC.  Of course, the person could lump sum in and then play around with buying on dips, but if the person is still feeling like he is trying to establish his position, and even might be limited in terms of his cashflow being $1k per month, then he may well not have other money for buying on dips, even though he would not necessarily have had to spend the whole $12k at once as a lump sum investment and he also would not have had to buy $250 per week or $1k per month right away, he could save some of that for buying on dips, but if the price had already ended up dipping, then the whole next couple of years, ended up being a kind of buying on dip, even though he is employing a kind of DCA approach and he had not really expected the BTC price to go against his initial purchase in such a great way, in terms of sinking all the way down to the $15ks... but his $250 per week bought more during those times in which the BTC price was at those lower price levels in the cycle.

Currently the price of Bitcoin is still not that high so you or anyone may still be too early to say that many people will buy at $60K and above, because everyone can still get Bitcoin below $45K. So it is not really feasible to judge whether a true investor will really stick with their current investment or not, because every investor must have a mature target and plan for what they buy and also for what they will invest in any way.

I don't think it's an aggressive purchase if you only aim to collect Bitcoin when the price is still in the Dip category, because everyone who buys Bitcoin with funds they have prepared for investment purposes within a certain period of time definitely has a very good goal. So no one will be able to judge whether you will invest in the short term or long term, because the one who will determine that is yourself or the owner of the asset itself.

What you said is the truth why people buy bitcoin at high price, the reason why people by bitcoin whenever they feel like is that they have in mind that the price of bitcoin at that time will continue to rise and it is not going fail and that is why they continued to buy, so that is the reason why we said that is good to verify about bitcoin before we can purchase bitcoin because if we continue the way we feel in cryptocurrency without have more knowledge of bitcoin before we invest largely we shall continue to experience lose.

In bitcoin investment before you buy at any cost of price you have to check the features of bitcoin if the time you buy more of bitcoin what you are supposed to do is to make sure that you have calculated the future of bitcoin,  you don't have to buy at high prices and within same period you bought and the price depreciate, I think what we need is a thorough investigation and research to know if the price will increase before you buy at high prices, research methods makes us not lose for bitcoin investment

Of course, the basic math would be that if you bought at a higher price, then the only way to make sure that you are in profits is to wait to sell at a higher price than you bought.

There surely are other ideas about how to manage investment (trading) portfolios, including cutting losses by selling even if the holding is at a loss, and then being able to either use that capital on some other investment, or to find a better (presumptively lower) entry point.

Some folks get anxious about tying their capital up until the amount becomes profitable, and surely I personally don't agree with following those kinds of trading approaches, absent some kind of exigent circumstances, and my own approach to bitcoin has always been to guard that I am not selling any BTC at prices lower than I bought them, and so there could be some calculation that any time that any of us make a BTC purchase, then we are willing to ride that purchase amount down to zero, if we are making such purchase under the premise that we are ONLY going to sell it once it becomes profitable, and so surely an averaging of your BTC purchase price could end up becoming a way to rationalize being able to sell at a profit based on a different way of accounting.


Some times traders do not mind to take losses on certain parts of their investment/trading portfolio holdings in order that they can off-set gains that they made in other portions of their investment/trading portfolio holdings.  Sometimes they purposefully choose to take losses to offset gains, and surely some of those kinds of accounting ideas, trading and gambling ideas are also deviating from the topic of this thread.. but sometimes we still may well acknowledge that some of the ideas that various longer term investors will propose will conflict with the ideas of shorter-term investors, and so sometimes we need to make sure that we are considering such comparisons, and not just proclaiming that there is ONLY one way to do things, even though many of us longer term investors likely engage in tactics that are way less complicating than what a trader might do, including when they are maybe employing various kinds of leverage or deploying other financial instruments in order to hedge their BTC long position.. and yes, those kinds of systems exist, even while in this thread, many of us probably recognize and appreciate that some of those tools might not even really be easily available to a lot of normie newbie investors, and the mere fact that you can even deploy such financial instruments does not even necessarily mean that you are going to have better results than the more basic ideas of ongoing, persistent and consistent BTC accumulation over a long period of time....and we have seen a lot of that better performance of the long term BTC accumulator/holder in bitcoin's history, even though a lot of those using financial instruments and trading will brag about various wins (or greater gains) that they are able to make from time to time, but they still likely do not end up outperforming basic accumulation and hodl strategies, especially if we look at longer periods of time, such as 4-10 years or longer.


What you say is not completely true, and it may well be a bit misleading.  If you make a lot of small purchases and you process them onchain and hold them in small UTXOs, then the high fees are going to hurt you more because you are likely going to have a bunch of small UTXOs that might not even be spendable because they are so small, and maybe you spent hundreds or even thousands of dollars to accumulate a bunch of small UTXOs.

You can use a third party to make your regular BTC buys (as Patrol69 mentioned), and then  ONLY transfer them to an onchain wallet (or address that you control) after they reach a certain amount of value that determined by you (as adultcrypto mentioned), and maybe that is after you accumulate $500 or $1k in value in a third party account, then you transfer that value to a private address... rather than transferring every $10 to $100.. which might not be very cost effective to be doing that.

You also are not suffering any expenses merely because you are HODLing bitcoin for a long time, but there may be some BTC HODLers who realize that they might have made mistakes if they have a bunch of small UTXOs that they had failed/refused to combine during times in which the transaction fees were much lower, and like you said transaction fees have been pretty high in the last couple of months, and really they have been higher during much of 2023 as compared with prior times. 

You can see the back up of the mempool over the last year here:  https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1y,weight  You can also change the time period in order to look at further back history or to look more closely at shorter time-periods.


There may be instances in which the lightning network might be helpful for both large transaction fees but lightning network surely has its own issues in regards to how much BTC can be held in such LN channels, and surely a lot of LN wallets are custodial rather than non-custodial, yet they could still serve as intermediary channels.

I am not sure how an accelerator resolves any kind of high fee problem, unless maybe you are referring to some of the free accelerators, which might not necessarily end up resolving issues of transactions getting stuck, and surely there are accelerators that charge extra, so that may well not end up resolving the issue of fees, even though it could help to resolve issues of transactions getting stuck.


Again, good luck using accelerators that may or may not lead you to success in getting your transaction to go through, but at least you can try it out and tell us if it is helping you in any kind of meaningful way.


I was not following that thread, but it does look like there might be instances in which stuck transactions could be accelerated, yet I am still not sure how that resolves the amount of the transaction fee issue, except maybe if someone had transacted with too small of a fee, and the transaction is not going through then to get the assistance of some accelerator service, and wouldn't you need to pay if you were using such service regularly?  But, yeah if you are transacting once every few months and then once in a while those transactions get stuck, there could be some use in terms of getting them unstuck and not necessarily having to pay any extra fee (if the accelerator really is "free.")


Personally, I don't really think about number 8 as a way to fuck around with trying to time the market - especially, since the more important things about the whole list of the 9 items that are referred to in the list of factors to consider, BTC price (which is contained in the idea of:
 "4)   your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments,"
And so price is contained within that idea, and we could flesh out the idea, but price ends up ONLY being one of the several factors, and is ultimately a sub-factor of one of the factors.

Of course, you can use the idea of tweaking your approach however, you like yet I would suggest that most of the tweaking would come from changes in a persons cashflow/expenses and/or how much BTC that the person accumulates in comparison to other kinds of assets (and so yeah the changes in overall wealth and how it is allocated could justify some needs to change a persons approach in terms of which assets are being bought and/or sold and how the objectives - such as reallocations or changes in allocations are being accomplished).

I think everyone who invests in Bitcoin definitely has time to organize their purchases and why DCA is so popular because they invest in the long term with hundreds of purchases throughout their investment journey. Of course DCA is the best and maybe buying at the same time is not too popular if the market situation is bullish. Apart from that, at a special level, continuing to pay attention to the charts is of course not something that everyone can do because they don't have much time due to their busy work, therefore those who focus on DCA will visit the market when their purchases are due and they do it like once every two months or once a month.

And it is true as stated by JJG because in point 8 where we can change our formation when the market situation changes suddenly, that is, we make purchases before the time comes in the composition of the list of purchases that we will make. It all depends on the situation because they can act more aggressively when the market turns red and can also accumulate more when the market falls 10%.

I don't think they bought bitcoin at a high price because they were ready. They bought it because they thought bitcoin would keep increasing in price and they got caught up with the price when bitcoin discontinued the price increase.

Before the price of bitcoin increased to this extent, some would have sold their bitcoin before now for less money, while others would have decided to hold onto it in the hope that its value would increase above the $60k purchase price. Whatever the event is, it does not prevent them from having the chance to accumulate bitcoin over time at a discounted price.

DCA is not only recommended for people who don't have time much time to study but its also adopted by people who have sound knowledge of Bitcoin. Because as you study more about Bitcoin and strategies to invest in Bitcoin you get to know that DCA is quite a good option to go for it. There are other options also but DCA is different in a sense that it benefits everyone the same way and this is something not available in other investing options. What works well for me may or may not work for you.

Correct, this is why anyone that bought when the price of Bitcoin was very high, needs to continue with DCA regular buying to make sure that he increases his bitcoin portfolio and also to be able to balance the average cost of bitcoin that he is holding, because it is only when you buy regular that you will have the opportunity to get a better profit at the long run, instead of waiting and keeping his bitcoin investment stagnant till after tye price of bitcoin passes his entry point in the next circle, which nobody knows when.

DCA approach is very good because it gives room for you to recover with time if you bought on the peak of the market. When i am DCAing, I only just make sure that i am consistent in I and I don't bother to check if I am making profit because I know that as long as I am holding for a long term, I will be profitable at the end after I have reached my bitcoin target.  This is because sometimes, the profit in your investment can be tempting, if you are the one that is always checking your profit, so to avoid distraction i don't check.

Not all investors sell their investments at a loss, but those who have a pre-planned investment hold their investments even in bad times.  When the Bitcoin market moved above $60,000 and those who bought Bitcoin at that time and who have held onto that investment until now are real patient investors. Patience is a very necessary aspect of a human being. He who has no patience loses everything. I got real proof of how important patience is for a man.
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People who sell their investments at a loss are panicked. They cannot continue to hold their bitcoin when the price decreases. They think that by selling their bitcoin, they have money to buy bitcoin at a lower price. And, indeed, those who can hold their bitcoin until the price exceeds the initial purchase price will be able to see the profits begin to appear. And you are right that patience is needed in holding this bitcoin until it reaches more than the purchase price.

The price of Bitcoin has been moving forward positively in the last few months and those who have invested in Bitcoin following the DCA method in the last few months are now seeing a clear return on their investment. The market is slowly moving upwards and we are gradually buying bitcoins according to the DCA method considering the market. 

I have purchased bitcoins in several steps according to my DCA method until the price of bitcoins is 40 thousand dollars and I am thinking of investing in several more steps. I don't think it would be a wrong decision for me if I invest some more money in Bitcoin according to the current market. Assuming now that I invest in Bitcoin the market has gone down a bit but if I compare this period with when I invested when Bitcoin was worth twenty thousand dollars, I will not have a loss but a profit. And this is the positive aspect of investing in DCA method.

As a bitcoin investor I believe bitcoin price will touch $50000 soon and then one hundred thousand dollars later. Even if the price of bitcoin reaches fifty thousand dollars I will invest according to DCA method at that time and if the price of bitcoin reaches the highest level then I will invest according to DCA method and this strategy of investing is right for me. 

As our objective is to hold our investment for a long time, buying bitcoin in stages is a good decision for us and we will continue to do so. If you keep money in the bank, the bank will return you that amount at the end of the specified period, although they will take some additional charges from you, but if you invest in Bitcoin for a long time, that investment can return you several times more money in the future. So invest yourself without depositing unnecessary money in the bank and keep investing consistently and keep your investment for a long time.

Before Bitcoin went into this current DIP, many people bought at the pick $60k and above, it takes only a true Bitcoin investor who is well propounded with the knowledge of Bitcoin to keep holding till now. Many must have sold with disappointment and dissatisfaction of making profit only as investing into the market then.

Buying aggressively in advantage of the current DIP as to hold enough Bitcoin in my wallet before hitting a new All Time High does not necessarily mean am into short term investment. This is taking advantage of the market, having enough funds and accumulating very well is something that will benefit more not necessarily meaning will sell when the price climbs a little.

You are absolutely right about the transaction fees, but I have a feeling that that is not a problem. There are many people that are applying the DCAing strategy, so anytime they want to accumulate Bitcoin, they can make use of the lighting network or accelerate the transaction so that it will be confirmed in just a matter of minutes (maybe 30 minutes).

However, I haven't used any of them, but with the kind of post and discussion at the technical board, I can tell that they are working perfectly. Although I am still planning to buy more coins next week with the help of the DCAing strategy, and if the transaction isn't confirmed quickly, then I will accelerate it.

Before I came across this post, https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/freepay-bitcoin-transaction-accelerator-5034315 I was thinking of buying the same amount of Ethereum, then when it's confirmed, I will reconvert it back to BTC just because of the transaction, but now, I will not have to do so, I will just buy the BTC from p2p and accelerate it.

The transaction fee is actually a big problem for those of using the DCA method. I think some adjustments have to be maintain buying the same amount of budgeted funds. Some of those adjustments including changing weekly DCA to bi-weekly DCA or to monthly DCA. In this case, the money can be deposited and Bitcoin bought like it was before the high fees, then keeping withdrawals to once per month as the case may be.

Since the fees became too high, I have also adjusted my withdrawal pattern to suit my targets. I don't have to spend huge amount as withdrawal fees as a result of regular withdrawals. While we hope this nightmare will come to an end soon, we have to improvise.

The need for withdrawal is because centralized exchanges is not the best place to store your coins to avoid loss of assets due to hack or other sharp practices that is common among CEX.

I don't think the extra transaction fee of Bitcoin should be a deterrent to your investing in DCA method. Now we are regularly noticing extra transaction fees for Bitcoin and you can use a good quality exchange to avoid this extra transaction fee problem. As per the current situation for investing I would suggest you to use Binance Exchange. Since you are investing according to the DCA method, when you feel that you should increase your investment now, you will deposit your country's local currency in Binance and after depositing, you can directly purchase bitcoins through p2p transactions. Or you can buy virtual dollars and later buy bitcoins with those dollars.  

Additional transaction fees are not a big issue for those who want to hold their investments for a long time and who want to invest in Bitcoin considering the different phases of the Bitcoin market. Our willpower is the most important, if we have the willpower to invest then surely our alternative thoughts will come to our mind. It is now a bit difficult for those investors who transfer their investments from mobile wallets to exchange wallets. In the future when the transaction fees are normalized, an investor can easily transfer his investment from exchange to hardware wallet or software wallet, it is not a difficult task.

Additional transaction fees have been increasing ever since the price of Bitcoin increased. This transaction fee is currently the biggest hurdle especially for those who are holding Bitcoin with the DCA method of Bitcoin. They incur additional transaction fees to hold bitcoins on a weekly or monthly DCA basis. I myself am under extra stress for Bitcoin transaction fees, because I have to continue investing in the DCA method at high cost. Yet I have not stopped holding bitcoins with the DCA method, continue and will continue to do so in the future no matter how high the transaction fees are.

I usually show you a picture of the Bitcoin Mempool.

Understanding different types of investors and their strategies for accumulating BTC is interesting. Some investors focus on buying and holding BTC instead of actively trading or using leverage (and I think this is the best strategy).But some of them are those which believe in other strategies and they mently ok.. with it.
For these investors ( who hold BTC) the average BTC price at which they make their purchases is important. If someone buys at the top of the market and continues to buy more BTC over time their average cost per BTC will respectively decrease.This means that the BTC price doesn't necessarily need to reach its  ATH again for them to be profitable. The more they buy the lower the required price for profitability. However... it is worth noting that the initial purchase made at the top will not be profitable until the BTC price reaches the ATH again.So individuals may measure their profitability differently either by looking at each transaction or considering their average price per BTC. Doing both can help manage accumulated BTC and assess its profitability. Not everyone keeps detailed track of their BTC holdings and some may only have a rough idea of their profitability. It's always good to have a clear understanding of investments but it is understandable that not everyone is meticulous about it.

You bring up a valid point. It's true that if someone bought at the top and didn't continue to buy more BTC, they would indeed have to wait for the price to surpass the ATH in order to see profits.
And I have read the example which you have given. I totally agree wthi you.
In conclusion if there is anyone, a trader (except those who leveraging) or an investor they need to hold.
If there is a trader so he bought BTC on top so he will try average the BTC price. But still if he is in loss so he has to wait for weeks for months or even years to get profit when the value will go above his entry point.
In the end, each investor's strategy and goals may differ and it's important to consider multiple factors when assessing the profitability of BTC holdings.

It means that those people who bought above $60k price bought because they were ready to invest in bitcoin as that was the right time for them. They also have the mindset to hodli for long and they didn't buy because they are after short term profit. This is the reason why they are still hodli their investment till now and some of them are even increasing their bitcoin portfolio because they understand the that the long term goal is superior.

I also see people that are new into bitcoin who have only little in their bitcoin portfolio, that feels because the price of bitcoin is pumping and for that reason they are over investing aggressively because they want to have enough bitcoin during the bull run as investors that plans to sell in a short-term which is why they are acting that way and if bitcoin price didn't turn out as they expected, they will be disappointed. It is better since you just got started to focus on buying regular with your DCA amount that would be at ease to you since you are on a long term bitcoin accumulation journey because slow and steady will help you plan different strategies which you will be able to use to buy at different market level and there will be funds available at all time to continue increasing your bitcoin portfolio. The longer you invest, the best. Short term investment will only rip off your future profit.

"8 )   your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time,"

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58719590

I personally think that number 8 can deal with a lot of things in terms of how much time anyone has to be able to spend on bitcoin and learning, and if you do not have a lot of time, then you need to attempt to maintain a less aggressive and maybe even a more passive strategy, and DCA works pretty well for someone who does not have a lot of time to study into bitcoin or even to study into various kinds of strategies to monitor if the BTC price is going to go up or down.

Surely another BIG factor is that if you spend a decent amount of time either building up your bitcoin stash, or even getting your emergency fund in place (when maybe you did not have one previously, or maybe your emergency fund was quite inadequate), so once your emergency fund is in a good place, then you can also tweak your strategy... ..

Also, we are not stagnant creatures, we are frequently learning about things or maybe some other kinds of obligations come up in our lives in such a way that we are less able to spend time with figuring out bitcoin or our finances, and so we end up having to spend time, money and energies on some things that were not initially related to our investment plan, so maybe we have an income of $4k per month, and we decide we want to and we are able to be aggressive in our bitcoin investment, and we are able in invest $1k per month into bitcoin (which would be 25% and pretty aggressive), but some things change, and we realize that we have to downsize our investment to ONLY $400  per month (which would be 10% of our income).

As you indicated, we might not always be keeping very good track of where we are at, and if we need to relook at what we are doing every month, or once a quarter, or maybe only once or twice a year, but sometimes there will be value in reevaluating where we are at and the kinds of strategies that we are employing in regards to our bitcoin.


You may well be right that a certain strategy might work for you for several years, but if you spent 4 years buying between $100 and $250 per week as in my above example, then you may well end up in having around $20k to $50k invested into bitcoin after 4 years, and then you might want to spend some time looking over the status of what you had already accomplished and to consider if you need to make some changes to your approach,, because as some point you might start to believe that either you have enough BTC or that maybe you want to invest into other things, and I am not necessarily referring to shitcoins, even though some people do end up going down that road... but there are things like equities, properties, bonds, commodities, and cash/cash equivalents that might be relevant in regards to some ways that you might consider reallocating or refocusing some of your BTC exposure as compared with other places that you are holding some of your value.

Well spoken Mr JJG, emergency funds are very important for every Bitcoin investor who is into long term holding. Emergency funds are the basic things any Bitcoin investor should set aside before going into investment. Just as you said most times we get too tempted to overdo our investment due to the market movement, especially now that we are close to the halving and would be experience th bull run thereafter. Most times I sit back and wonder if I'm out of my mind for making some aggressive decision in accumulating Bitcoin, but then I realize that every decision concerning Bitcoin is worth the risk, and that is how move on.

After stumbling on those 9 factor and examining my condition, I think I need to work on number 8 because, my application of accumulating strategy isn't flexible and I need to update myself time to time. However it's not all that necessary, especially for newbies. I think the category of person worthy of trying this strategy are those above the newbie stage, newbies in Bitcoin holding are advised to stick with DCA until you seem comfortable of holding without hitting the sell button, then you can go ahead in exploring other strategies. I am still applying buy the dip with DCA and this is the best I have seen so far, don't know if there are other strategy better than this for now, but I think I am comfortable enough to make some changes.

I couldn't believe what I typed after reading   I really  need to remove autocompletion and auto correct