Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 404. (Read 108308 times)

That's quite a long initial journey with DCA that you are doing.... Maybe I will start like that at the start of this year until the next few years, I'm not sure how long it will last but my own target is 2032. Is that realistic? Of course I will try my best.

Yes, now I understand the DCA method and know the benefits myself. Expenditures will now be even tighter after the DCA planning has started. Before doing this I always shopped for non-essential items so for now, unnecessary expenses will no longer be used and it's more important to be strict on DCA than anything else.

In a normal year I always get a bonus from work several times but this time I haven't received it from the office. What is clear is that I already have this plan and will put it in BTC, but I also have a choice between buying it in a lump sum or in several part like you said, on the one hand I want to separate DCA and lump sum with different wallets and also with different records in the spreadsheet, it's clear in my opinion the results will be greater in DCA planning than lump sum because the bonus money cannot be determined how big it is but that in my mind is separate.

Even now I have to be a little more adaptable, the need is increasing day by day, I have to save a little more so I can do more DCA well and strictly.

Investment is not to trouble ourselves if indeed we are eventually affected by inflation and the worst possibility is that we cannot continue while the DCA is done then I think it will not be a problem because we invest not to trouble ourselves and remember this investment is only as a support for us to enjoy the old age that we hope to be beautiful.
Rather than in the end this will hamper our needs by forcing investment which of course will also not be able to be done properly then I think in this case fulfil the needs of life that we will do first.
If necessary, we can also sell some of the investments that we have built before (if they are profitable) to cover the needs we have so that we can be free from the inflation we receive.
Remember, this investment also aims to make changes to our lives so that when our lives are threatened, which can be said to be primary, it is not wrong to temporarily stop the investment we are doing because it is secondary rather than torturing ourselves with increasingly difficult conditions.
But in this case, hopefully we can avoid the worst possibility and still be able to support ourselves and our families properly and not leave our investments.

To me, it is a bit unclear what @snowpega is doing since he seems to be DCA'ing and also buying on dips, and there is nothing wrong with that so long as the person doing the BTC accumulating is still going to be sufficiently happy with what s/he had done if the BTC price ends up not dipping down to the expected prices whether that is going into the $23-$24k range or even dipping into some kind of an area that approaches $20k per BTC.

To me it continues to seem unrealistic to be putting too many hopes into buying on further dips when we are still more than $1k below the 200-week moving average.. yet at the same time, there is nothing wrong with having some lump sum amounts that might be on the sidelines and ready to buy at various price points if the BTC price does end up dipping.. It just seems to be a common mistake for newbies to end up holding too much in reserves in order to prepare for dips that might not end up happening.. so it seems that the main solution is to think through the scenarios ..and maybe even roughly plot them out, and get to some kind of position in which you are happy with either price direction while being prepared for either..

Of course, @snowpega has been registered on the forum for a year, but we cannot necessarily presume that s/he has been accumulating BTC for that long.. but sometimes it can be helpful to figure out some of the time lines in which people had been investing and what their strategies had been in order to attempt to figure out where they might be in their BTC accumulation journey... and even the other day, I was thinking about how long it can take to get up to 1 years worth of income saved up.. 5-10 years if we are lucky, and many people end up taking longer than 10 years to get to a point in which they have 1 years income (or at least 1 year of how much it costs them to live - so their expenses) saved up (or somehow invested in ways that could be considered as quasi-liquid - even if some of the sources of savings are time-locked, like retirement accounts).

So might we assume that most people who are less than 5 years investing have not even gotten to 1 years salary saved up?  and maybe I am setting the goals too high?  because even a person who has 20% to 50% of his/her annual salary/expenses saved up will start to have way more flexibility as compared to someone who is just starting out, and sure there tends to be a combination of cash and BTC that could be being built up, so even if the person is not DCA'ing most of it into bitcoin, there can quite a bit of value in regards to having the fiat savings available that can be injected into bitcoin because of another fact that most people do not have a sufficient amount of an emergency fund saved up, which is enough to support themselves for 3-6 months.. if their worse case scenario ends up playing out.

Just thinking about two friends, David and Alex, who heard about bitcoin in 2014, David invested small amounts of his savings into it. The price of bitcoin has increased significantly since that time, and David put in some risk management strategies and took profits a few times. On the other hand, Alex learned about his friend's enormous gains and hastily invested all of his savings in bitcoin before the major correction of the last bull run. Later, he sold his bitcoin at a loss. They both invested in the same market, but their risk management strategies differed.

Aggressive investors in bitcoin know about the market. They must consider some factors like historical repercussions, decentralization, finite supply, diversification, adoption, and utility. All these show a very bullish sign that bitcoin is going to be the next financial savior when the petrodollar is collapsing very fast. There wasn't any better alternative than gold before, but bitcoin's scarcity makes it more valuable than gold, and there is no reason to believe it will stop its growth in the future.

Good Day,
Thank you for your submission and also congratulations for choosing to invest in Bitcoin. It might just be one of your best decision you have taken.

Any approach you adopt to accumulate Bitcoin is not bad as long as it is increasing your portfolio. A lot of people are using your option of waiting for the dips to buy and since we are still in a relatively undecided market condition, they have been right buying at every dip. This will continue until we have a bull market where market might not give them the chance to buy again because dips might be rare to see.

The DCA method does not really look at price... so the option of waiting to buy at the dip does not really agree with DCA. If you are employing DCA, then waiting for the dips will not be necessary... so I guess you have some modifications to make regarding your approach so you don't miss our on major move that can start any moment.

In other words, we should not only have a strategy when our finances are stable to do this DCA, but we must also have a scenario when the worst situation comes to us. I am someone who believes that bad things can come at any time, and in this conversation we are focusing more on our financial situation.

Don't get too comfortable with the situation, because that's actually something that will make it harder for us in the future. For example, we are doing well right now, and we forget what the future will be like. Because no one knows what will happen one week, one month or one year ahead, so we must be able to prepare for it as well as possible.
And if we are in a situation like that, maybe we should reduce or even stop the DCA that we have been doing, I agree with that.

Hi there

hope y'll doing very well today i was just going through here and i read these discussion you guys having with each other i found it interesting so i thought i must share my experience as well. A couple of months ago i was just waiting for the BTC dip like well as i expected BTC will go for 20,000 it wouldn't reach there. we all know the aspect that we can't time the market anytime we can just make some prediction according to the previous history analysis so that's what i do....well when BTC price came to 25700 i bought some amount of BTC according to the savings i had but i didn't invest my all amount at once  then i still expected btc go more down and literally it happened after that very next week BTC price came more down i was about i guess 24800 and i did more investment and seriously i found DCA as very good technique it make my whole portfolio in profite and i still waiting btc to go more down like i think it can still go to the around 23 to half of 24 thousand what you guys say about that must share you opinion with me it will add up to my knowledge and information as well Many Thanks.

Kind regards

snowpega

I think it's great to buy some to hold and some to play a trader.

A student or a businessman or a job holder can collect bitcoins by following DCA if he wants. DCA can be more effective for students if they have the opportunity to earn some money on a regular basis as they have the potential to become a major asset before they start their career. Those students will definitely be able to become financially independent within a certain period of time than others because a student will have more time than others to grow his bitcoin portfolio which can be difficult for an employed person at times. So for those students who are aware and plan about Bitcoin accumulation through DCA and if they apply correctly that can help them get established in the student life.

It is better to invest in Bitcoin DCA method but since you are currently a student then Bitcoin is the best support for you to accumulate money. I think you should learn this method a bit because it will help you a lot in future. If you invest in bitcoins as a student, your portfolio will surely grow in your old age for long girls. And from here you can get help.

Learn and work

Source link: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more-liquid-and-part-of-m1-money/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

Even though you are moving around the facts a bit @Agbamoni, you are not really changing them significantly enough in  order to be saying anything different from what @Odohu or I was trying to say.

If you have an income that comes in for a semester or twice a year for school, then you can surely divide that up for however, many weeks are within each semester.. .. and then even choose NOT to actually use any of the weekly allowance to buy bitcoin until after you know for sure what your weeks expenses are going to be, whether they are basic expenses or the more extravagant hookers, lambos and blow (or alcohol) type of expenses.

To me, it seems that @Odohu was suggesting that the income or the expenses were not as steady as what you are describing having a set amount for each semester... but then if there might be some side incomes or even side expenses, that could cause the weekly budget to vary, then there can be some flexibility in terms of whether $10 per week would be available for the purchase of bitcoin on the worst of the weeks or whether $50 might be available on the weeks in which there was more surplus cash available.


This point has already been addressed several times including that if the inflation comes, then maybe a person has to make his/her emergency fund greater in order to account for the inflation, and maybe at some point s/he might have to lessen or discontinue DCA'ing into bitcoin.. but hopefully none of the inflation becomes so bad that the BTC accumulator has to sell BTC at a time that is other than any time of his/her own choosing... which also just signifies that there are needs to be careful in terms of not over investing and trying to anticipate expenses, including inflation. and sure sometimes inflation is truly beyond expectations, but it probably is not as much beyond expecation than most of us already know that it happens and it happens in some places more than in other places and sometimes we have to attempt to prepare for those kinds of things (which is another reason to be investing into bitocin for the long term.. maybe even 20-30 years and in that regard, even though the inflation is hurting in the short term, hopefully investing into bitcoin will give more options in the long run, but bitcoin is not going to give any options if you end up having to sell them early because you failed/refused to get your financial and psychological shit together enough in order to make sure that you don't get yourself reckt. and ONLY invest with your extra money, not the money that you need to live on.

You're hitting on a point that I found very interesting, investing as a student can be very difficult because there are other factors that could come up impromptu to spend money on in the school. Am not talking about student who spend so much on alcohol, hookers 😂😂 or whatever. I meant sometimes you might be asked to get a handout, textbook or to print some document so urgently and that alone can spoil the plan of investing the $10 every week. Don't you think it is best to set a monthly target or per semester so that withing that period you can invest huge whenever there is more money left in the week and invest less when the money let for a week is little but at the end you meet your target.

This should be brought into a stated fact that inflation can harm one's level of DCAing.
If there should be an inflation in a country economy and the salary of that person remains the same there must be an effect on the person's method of accumulating Bitcoin. Not minding the emergency and most people get into debt as a result of there salary not meeting up to there basic need

Exactly.  It is good if you put some kind of a number on it, so yes, in a case like that, the hypothetical person (student) may well end up creating his DCA at $10 per week, and maybe s/he would have certain time frames in which s/he would increase the DCA for those particular weeks in which the income that ended up coming in was greater than $10.. and maybe s/he would wait for the whole month to go by in order to make sure that all of the expenses are in and that the emergency fund is sufficiently filled prior to adding the surplus income to the DCA.. and sometimes in those kinds of cases, it might be good to add the earlier months surplus to the next month, unless you end up being happy just making a lump sum investment (which would be the same as DCA, just on a monthly rather than weekly basis) with the surplus that is determined at the end of each month.

Sometimes when regular habits are made to trajectory out the expenses and the income, you will be able to determine right away if you are receiving income that would be considered surplus because if your emergency fund is already full and you have already accounted for the worse case scenario in your monthly (or even 6 month projection of income and expenses), then whenever any extra money comes in that is beyond the worse case scenario, you would be able to spend all of that extra money on bitcoin DCA or whatever else you end up choosing to use it for.. and surely in this case we are trying to focus on when you are going to know that extra income is available for bitcoin DCA and there are always going to be some other competing interests, but if you are early in your bitcoin accumulation journey then surely you may end up putting most of your extra income into your bitcoin accumulation budget and then allocating that extra income to whatever category of accumulation that you deem most fitting (lump sum, DCA and/or buying on dips).

I already told the story of my tight cashflow in 2015 and 2016 in which I had already figured out my budget with enough of an exactness that I would automatically buy BTC right away with half of any extra income that would come in during that time (still pretty early in my BTC accumulation even though I had done most of it in 2014), and the other half of that extra income would just go into my reserves.. and in order to account for whatever other expenses that I had and sometimes income coming i would have some of its own costs that might need to get plugged into my expenses.. and so for example even something as simple as selling piece of furniture or selling a car, a bicycle or a some kind of service, there might be some potential hidden cost that the half set aside would potentially cover (not an exact science, but still worked pretty well for me during that time of my bitcoin accumulation journey).

IMO when you say the actual salary factor it doesn't change any views on the DCA issue.
Indeed, now we are in a really difficult condition and sometimes the income we have is very sufficient with expenses that are getting more and more expensive, but when we understand and can manage those needs well, investing and doing DCA will not be hampered by that because we can adjust the budget we have from the income in a month for daily needs including unexpected needs and to be in investment.
I think we already understand and can be flexible with something like this because of course the initial concept should start when thinking that this investment is only a portion or a few per cent of what we collect from the monthly salary.

Good for you ser. You're still a student, single, AND YOUNG. I'm confident that the start of your Bitcoin journey EARLY in your life will give you a better probability of building a good portfolio by the time of your retirement. You are currently front-running BlackRock, and the other asset managers, if they haven't bought any Bitcoin yet.

Keep working, keep learning.

 

Furthermore, percentage change of the money supply in the United States from one year ago. It's down by -3.7%. That's another deflationary month since December, 2022. This might cause an economic crash in that region that could be a contagion for other regions.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=248494#0

Perhaps it's good to use half of what you're regularly using for DCA, and save it for a DIP?

Thank you for adding further clarification to this; I consider this information very helpful and I know other people do too. A lot of people in this forum might actually fall into this category of unsteady cashflow and this information will be very helpful for those who will be able to digest and implement it.

From your explanation, it is obvious that a simple averaging of upper and lower limits might not be  as efficient as keeping in mind the worst-case situation. As student, it is easy getting $10 per week for low income country oike mine  but sometimes it gets as high as $50. For a student in this situation that want to start investing in Bitcoin, a DCA of $10 per week will be more feasible

You don't "have to" be aggressive at any time that is other than what you want, and the level of your aggressiveness is like a sliding scale in which if you are choosing to be more aggressive than your usual level, you don't have to go all the way.. and frequently when you feel that you are able to be aggressive, that is because you have already measured your situation sufficiently enough to know how aggressive you feel comfortable being.

If you are brand new to bitcoin and you have not even really figure out your own financial situation, then your attempts to be aggressive would likely end up crossing over into gambling because you have not spent enough time studying the specifics of your finance and/or psychology in order to figure out how aggressive that you can be, and likely in the very beginning you might choose to error on the side of being a bit whimpy and maybe you would end up ONLY investing $10 per week when you are pretty sure that you could afford $60 to $100 per week, but you error on the side of being whimpy because you are still sorting through figuring out your budget both in terms of your finances and also in terms of your psychology.


Well sometimes you can do both, and you could be new to investing in bitcoin or into anything, and you realize that you ONLY have about 2-3 weeks worth of savings.. and so you want to get to 6 months ideally, but you might be willing to live with 3 months as a kind of less preferred scenario.. and so your realizing that you don't even have the basics in place may still not end up precluding you from putting some of your money in bitcoin while you are working from getting your emergency fund up from 2-3 weeks and then up to 3 months and then up to 6 months, so there could be ways that you continue to build both rather than completely staying out of investing.. because part of your power would be that you have identified where you are wanting to get to and that you are working on getting there rather than someone who is investing without actually identifying to where you are wanting to get.


You are very much on the right track.  The person who spent more time getting his/her shit together and has a strong emergency fund is going to be very much in a better position to deploy some of those extra reserves, and it takes time to get yourself into those kinds of strong positions, especially if you had not previously really identified with specifics where you want to be. (or need to be).  Even sometimes when you are in a position of strength, you sometimes might make some mistakes that will weaken your strength for several months until you build back up to where you should be but sometimes mistakes do happen... but if you had been in a position of strength, you are in a much better position to make mistakes than you are if you are already starting out from a position of weakness... so yeah, if you had been in a position of weakness and you make the same mistakes as the person who is in a position of strength, you might end up taking yourself out of the game, and the person in the position of strength has lived to fight another day, even if that person had gotten weakened from his/her mistakes.


Yeah, but what does that tell you?  Probably it tells you where you want to get to being rather than being resentful or jealous about people who happen to be in a better position than you.  There are always going to be people who are in better positions than you, but the more and more and more that you work on your own situation (and to improve it) then the more you are going to see that there are people in situations that are much worse than your own situation, and especially when it comes to bitcoin, we might look back in 2033 and see that there are people who are just getting into bitcoin who are way better off than you had been in 2023, however, you end up being way better off than them because you spent the last 10 years investing into bitcoin and they are just getting started, 10 years later than you... even if they are starting with more capital than what you had when you started, they are never going to be able to catch up to you.

Just imagine the person who spent $3k in 2015 to buy right around 10 bitcoin, and any person now is going to have to spend $265k in or to even attempt to get close to accumulating 10 bitcoin, so sometimes the underdog who is persistent and knows that bitcoin is a good place to put value is going to pass up some of his/her peers who are more wealthy than him because of their failure/refusal to try to find out about bitcoin and/or their failure/refusal to take any kinds of actions (even de minimus actions) to build up any kind of a bitcoin holdings, and so if you are building and accumulating bitcoin for 10 years, then you are quite likely going to pass them up in a lot of measures.. .. and of course, your passing them up is not guaranteed, but it is a kind of an asymmetric bet in which you can figure out how aggressive that you want to be and to potentially end up profiting from the upside if the upside ends up playing out.

Why most people aggressively invest in Bitcoin others still sees it as a ton of luck or risk. Bitcoin has so many factors compiled together so as to successfully achieve enough profits at its bull run, factors like risk management and market analysis are all to be put together.

That's what hinders my investment rate if I have to act aggressively in a bear market situation. Yes, to cover emergency fund reserves will take time and that could hinder one of the DCA options that I have done so far. So at this point the cushion we have is not too strong to move aggressively in accumulating BTC so I have to adjust this step well so as not to disturb me at the DCA level at each stage. However, for those who have large emergency fund reserves, they can certainly move more aggressively in the last few days to accumulate BTC below $26k. In this case, every decision is certainly supported by their financial aspects and will not interfere with their DCA strategy.

I see the points you are making, also same reason why most people sells of there investment because they have no left over money to carry out some expenses or emergencies . The best way they think of is to sell out there investment which is not helping due to wrong decision at the very beginning