Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 402. (Read 123365 times)

I am new to bitcoin but I was just saying that I will not take a whole ten years from this year that I started to have a significant amount of bitcoin, only to sell to buy a car, that buying a car shouldn't be why I got into bitcoin investment.

For you to be able to have a better knowledge on bitcoin investment, you must have the experience, and how do you have the experience by investing now, because you can simply invest and learn along the line, it is better to get started than to think that you need a major knowledge of bitcoin investment before you can invest. To invest in bitcoin it doesn't need much just only the basics of bitcoin which is how to buy and send to your noncustodial wallet. If it is someone that is use to save some little part of his income  always, the better for him. Bitcoin investment should be for a long term and this is why you should only use a percentage from your income that will not affect your other necessary expenses, you should also have  emergency funds that will be a back up for you when an emergency arise, so that you will be comfortable with your regular DCA to achieve your bitcoin goal. Success can be achieved, when you are discipline and patient in your accumulation period to make sure you don't get distracted along the line. Some people have been holding some good significant of bitcoin that they accumulated bit by bit for like 10yrs now.

DCA approach is very reliable for you to use as a newbie in your bitcoin goal. But if my any means, you can have extra funds from you place of work or your business, you can save it for the dip so that when the dip comes your are ready to take advantage of it. People that have good financial management with maybe a good source of income can easily use these methods with time. JJG has already stated this above because he is well experience on this field, since he started his bitcoin investment long ago and now he is on his maintenance level.

Likely the very beginners into bitcoin would be better off ONLY using DCA to accumulate bitcoin and while they are figuring out bitcoin and their own finances and/or psychology in regards to bitcoin, yet as they study bitcoin more and more, and maybe as they stack more and more sats, they can start to add the other two methods of lump summing and buying on the dip into the mix of the ways that they accumulate BTC, and it will take different people differing amounts of times to figure out his/her own finances and/or psychology as I had referred to my earlier linked post. (outline in this post) )

Someone who has enough money to invest in Bitcoin can adopt these three methods you mentioned to accumulate the quantity of Bitcoin he wants because he will have nothing to worry about, even though Bitcoin price is on the rise the money to use and buy Bitcoin with a lump sum is there, if Bitcoin dip the money to use and buy the Bitcoin dip is there, and if Bitcoin price is just being stable for some week the money to use and buy Bitcoin with the DCA strategy is also there, I think using these three methods at a time to accumulate Bitcoin is also safe if there is enough money. Thanks for sharing this idea.

Everyone has responsibility for themselves for what they will do, if they choose to invest in Bitcoin of course they must first study it well, don't just look at those who have been able to benefit from investing in Bitcoin, they immediately decide to follow them. without a good understanding of what they are doing, of course if they force themselves to invest then this will be a bad thing for them because those who have been successful with their investments certainly have a lot of knowledge and experience that they have gained from the investments they have made.

It seems that even if someone is fortunate in a variety of ways, it seems better to be focusing on what kinds of things that they are doing to learn and/or or to be able to be productive and helpful to others rather than just telling us how they are already getting free money and therefore they are  putting it into bitcoin... Sure if any of us were in such a situation, then we do have some luxuries of building a bitcoin stash for free. 

Some folks in bitcoin did get rich from bitcoin, so it likely is the case that some folks in bitcoin never did have to work for any of their wealth if they actually came from well-to-do families, but it seems doubtful that any of those kinds of stories are helpful unless they might be talking about various kinds of ways that a person might deal with cashflows.  Even well-to-do people do have to either engage in their organizing of their finances unless they have accountants that do those things for them, and then maybe the main kinds of learnings would be how to manage other people, which does not really seem to be a very relatable topic for many of us who have engaged in various kinds of work for our value and maybe even quite a bit of back and forth learning how to manage and balance our BTC holdings.


Even if the BTC price dips, many of us are not going to have enough money to be ready, willing and able to invest all of our life time investment into bitcoin at one time.  Therefore, frequently the investing into bitcoin remains an ongoing process rather than a one time lump sum investment, even if we might try to invest lump sum, there might be several entry points along the way of building a stash.

Surely, there are some folks who might either be experienced investors and/or that they have already built up a large investment portfolio and they may well be ready, willing and able to move their whole allocation into bitcoin in a lump sum, but those are likely the exceptions rather than the rule, and I doubt that we are wanting to appeal to have discussions with and/or about experienced and rich investors rather than discussing the various ways that normies get into bitcoin.. which is overwhelmingly going to be through relatively small injections of value periodically, whether that is weekly, monthly, quarterly or some other time increments that also depend on cashflow and expense situations of the BTC accumulators.


There is nothing wrong with considering making various adjustments to your BTC accumulation strategies, even though surely many of us have acknowledged that it is quite difficult to know which way the BTC price is going to go, so that is part of the justification for ongoingly buying BTC on a regular basis rather than letting too much fiat build up.  But if your fiat is building up, then you have to decide if you are going to hold some of that for buying on dips or if you are just going to buy right away with it or add it to your DCA amount and spread such purchases over some given period of time.

Personally, I do prefer to consider all three categories of accumulating if I either receive some additional cashflow or if I realize that I have more cash onhand than I thought that I had needed.  For example, if I am going through my monthly expenses, I might have a certain quantity of money in various accounts that are used to pay various expenses, but then after calculating the various expenses for that month or even trajectoring out for further months,  I might come to realize that there may end up being some extra money in the account, so then having that extra money would justify considering: 1) lump sum right away (or various lump sums), 2) allocate for buying on dips that can be set at various intervals depending on buy orders that might already exist (money that is already allocated for buying on dips) and/or 3) DCA over a certain period of time with various amounts.  For example, if I were to find that I have $1,200 extra then I could allocate $400 to each of the three categories or I could allocate $600 to buying on dips,  $200 to buying right away and $600 to DCA.  There are a lot of variations and discretion based on what has already been allocated to the categories and a variety of other considerations (including the ones I outline in this post) that might not ONLY be about BTC price expectations even though price expectations is one of the considerations.

Usually with the DCA strategy there is no need to look at the price is up or down you need to consistently do every week/month then that is the DCA strategy, while for the lumpsum method then you need to wait for the price to drop because this is DIP and have to provide more money to buy at once, sometimes this way is a little more complicated even though it is not the case but the DCA method is more appropriate but you need to remember not to look at any price.

Of course you still have a lot of time from now on to start DCA, sometimes with the halving happening in April for example it will not directly become ATH there must be another moment with a certain time will reach it, if you want to skip the cycle now it is much better because your investment will be longer with a range of 4 years more, but determine with the plan you make.

As much as possible now you should be able to implement strategies with DCA consistently to continue to grow your portfolio.

Yes, that's right, we just have to buy and hold, although some people prefer to make short-term trades, but that will be different from holding and not doing anything. The risk is more minimal, we know the coin we are buying is the best, namely Bitcoin, so no You need to worry because in the long term the price will continue to rise.

Even though the price of Bitcoin is on the rise now, I will still stick with my DCA strategy to accumulate the quantity of Bitcoin I planned to accumulate and hodl for a long term. I will not rush with a lump sum buy in Bitcoin just because I'm afraid Bitcoin price will not dump for me to buy at a lower price through the DCA strategy. There is still enough time for me to achieve the quantity of Bitcoin I want to accumulate through DCA even though the price of Bitcoin is at $36k because Bitcoin can only set a new ATH when Bitcoin halving has taken place and Bitcoin halving is estimated to happen in April 2024.

On the contrary, Bitcoin can actually pay quickly depending on when you join the market and what will be the prevailing market condition after you join. There are people that bought Bitcoin when it dip below $18k. They were I profits within a short time because Bitcoin did not stay long there. Same thing for those that bought below $30k before the surge that took the price above $30k where it has remained till date.

You might be lucky to buy Bitcoin today and the next day, it gain over $5k. This is a confirmation that Bitcoin can pay quickly.

However, our target is not the quick profits but how to buy and hold for long to make bigger gains.

Everything has risks, but any success requires trade-offs. So I think we should not focus too much on the risk but instead we should be ready to face it if it really happens. Once we decide to invest, we should be optimistic about our choice because thinking too much about risks will make us afraid and miss opportunities. Just like every time the price of bitcoin drops, many people fear it will drop even further and do not dare to buy when the price drops. And finally, they miss the opportunity to buy because the price does not continue to fall but increases again.

Think carefully and make a decision before investing. Once you have decided to invest, you should believe in your choice and stick to the plan you have set, don't think too much about risks.

He was fortunate to be born into a wealthy family, but relying on his parents is not something to brag about here. I like people who make their own money and are responsible for their lives rather than relying on their parents. Let's make our parents proud of us, don't let them worry more when we grow up.

It is true that Bitcoin never pays a person quickly and does not provide financial solvency. Rather, if you want to get financial freedom, you have to invest in Bitcoin and keep it for a long time, but you will get profit. I think it is foolish to invest as you wish, if you understand the position of the market during it is definitely possible to accumulate a good wealth for the future. Also, I think it's better if you hold BTC for future and long term investment. That said, we exactly invest with the amount of money we can afford to lose, but basically we invest because we can hope for Bitcoin. And currently we are so confident in bitcoin that we will never lose money by keeping it here, but it will be our main purpose to make profit by holding only BTC.

Sometimes, we might agree with a lot of the same points, but we express ourselves differently, and other times there are actual material differences in what we are saying.  I don't claim to know all of the answers, and sometimes I might even get confused and/or contradict myself in terms of what I thought that I wanted to say or how I am saying it... and some members (to the extent that any of them are reading our posts) might be able to relate more to the ways that you are saying things, and others might be able to relate more to the ways that I am saying things.   

I do believe that it can become confusing to get into describing (or predicting) probabilities for future performance as compared with what might actually end up happening.

For example, if I say that I believe that there is a greater than 75% chance that BTC prices will break the current ATH before the end of 2025, then if I am trying to account for all of the possible outcomes, then I have to try figure out how to frame the remaining less than 25%.  Since we are talking in terms of breaking the high, then we can maybe figure out how we might want to figure some of the current ranges. 

So maybe I could say that I believe that there is a 10% chance that BTC will not break $40k before the end of 2025, and then I believe that there is a less than 15% chance that BTC will top out somewhere between $40k and $69k before the end of 2025. 

That kind of framing would cover all of the possibilities, but it still does not mean that I am right in my numbers since I am kind of guessing a bit, too... so if some of the facts change or maybe some of my ideas change, then I might have to adjust my predictive numbers, but since there surely is quite a bit of time between now and the end of 2025, I could likely stick with my predictive numbers and framework for quite a long time (maybe 6 months or longer) before I might feel any need to adjust the numbers that I have just given..

Now if we get to the middle of 2025 and the price had not yet gone above $50k, I might start to get worried, especially if BTC prices were then around current prices, so it seems that other parts of my whole view of bitcoin is playing out differently than I had expected... but I still might feel that I need to stick to my guns with my earlier prediction, even though the price had already gone past $40k, so that 10% would need to be removed from any revised prediction since at some point between now and mid 2025, the BTC price had ended up going above $40k.

Another thing is that once the whole of 2025 passes, and if the BTC price did not end up going any higher than $50k, then my 15% scenario would have had ended up playing out, and so then that 15% scenario ended up becoming 100% since that is what ended up playing out.  So if I were to try to make another prediction regarding what BTC might do in 2026 and 2027, then I would have to take into account what actually ended up happening, rather than what had been my earlier greater than 75% scenario did not end up playing out but ended up being 0% in terms of what had actually ended up happening.

Maybe it is not a great example, yet it does end up being a bit gloomy and doomy if facts were to end up playing out in the minority case of my current prediction, but it still should be something that I am prepared for both financially and psychologically, even if I consider both the combination of no higher than $40k and topping in the $40k to $69k to be less than 25%.

We can do this for down scenarios too., but I don't really like to talk about the minority cases, but instead focus on the current more likely direction, even though the down scenarios should be contained within how much value that we place into BTC and also the various ways that we are psychologically and financially prepared for those down scenarios, even though they are part of our view of events that is less likely to play out.  We could really get reckt financially and psychologically if we did not account for the negative scenarios... but even though we are prepared for them, we might not need to put very much of our finances into such negative scenarios.

Have "we" beaten this to death enough, yet?  I understand that guys are likely going to get overly enthusiastic, and surely I hate to be the one who is saying to be careful if you are putting 100% into up.. or even using language that seems to describe that you are overly prepared for UP without being prepared for both, whether we are talking short, medium or long term.. even going out 20-30 years... if BTC were to perform badly for the next 10 years, for example, it may not mean that it has to fix itself so that in the long term it performs positively.  We have to assess what is going on at various times along the way to attempt to figure out if there might be parts of our investment thesis that are not playing out as we had expected and if we might need to change our investments based on such or if we stick with the same original plan that we had.

When I read your comment, first thing that came to my mind was to assume someone came to tell me about Bitcoin when I don't know anything about it yet. I am just imagining being told that Bitcoin is a good but I should invest only what I can afford to lose. That alone would have discouraged me and I will never give it a second thought to invest in it. Sincerely you are right that the way we present Bitcoin matters a lot.

I have learnt many things joining the discussion in this thread. My understanding and ideology about Bitcoin have also improved drastically. Basically, I now have a new approach I can use while talking to those who are not much experienced on Bitcoin.

At this point, you can wait for a very long time before you can see an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a low, just what is happening to Bitcoin price lately, the price has been around $36k - $37k. If you find yourself in this situation don't wait for the Bitcoin price to drop because you might miss the opportunity of holding a Bitcoin because the price might just be pumping until you lose interest in buying Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin is a long-term hodl you can use the DCA strategy to accumulate your Bitcoin until you can buy the quantity of Bitcoin that you want to hodl. The DCA strategy will help control the volatile part of Bitcoin, even though Bitcoin price declines after you have bought you will not be at much loss because you accumulated your Bitcoin at different prices.

No JJG I am not opposing what you said but maybe I conveyed it too concisely with the way I delivered it. Apart from that I support everything you have described and it allows many users to learn the best way to invest in the right way. Indeed, sometimes there is a need for a discussion that might be more interesting and that will give rise to a very good point to take and apply in the investment journey.

Apart from that I also learned all about what you said and I applied it in my long term investments. I want to improve the performance of the investments I have made in Bitcoin and want to correct the mistakes of the past that sold Bitcoin just to gamble. Yes, maybe I will change that as best as possible because I am determined to invest for a long period of time.

Every investor needs to be aware of it, particularly if they are investing in bitcoin. Bitcoin didn't guarantee anyone quick wealth or financial independence, even if they decided to invest in it. Each of us is investing in bitcoin at our own free will. Therefore, we alone are responsible for whatever ultimately happens to our investment. Because of this uncertainty surrounding our future investment in Bitcoin, it is advised that we only invest with money that we can afford to lose.

Thank you @JJG for your observation and suggestions, I acknowledge your efforts on guiding us here and other investment ideas you have been sharing, actually I never realized I was sounding a bit contradicting on my Statment above, however the point I was trying to make was that, as someone who is poor it will be very difficult acquiring 1 Bitcoin at a time because the amount could be too high for the person to afford at once but however it could be achieve able if the person set a target of accumulating a bit by bit and within a period of years the possibility of achieving it will be higher.

Often time i tell investors to invest an amout that they can be able to endure if the market doesn't work out the way they expected, due to the fluctuations in the price of stocks in the market it is advisable to buy and Hodl as that's the only way to overcome this market fluctuations.


I these point applying the DCA strategy is the only way forward because from how the market is now buying and hodling is the best option for every investor as no one know if the price of bitcoin will keep increasing or it will eventually dip before the end of the year.

Apart from the fact that this thread serves as a form of enlightenment as JayJuanGee as well as other forum members have taken their time to give Thier different views on investment in Bitcoin,This thread also serves as a form of modification of wrong ideas of people in investing in the wrong assets.
One is advised to invest in assets that would appreciate over time rather than dip therefore Bitcoin is the easiest choice.one only has to be cautious of his wallet security and private keys and hodl as much as possible to be successful in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

We can agree to disagree.  I stand by the points that I made in my earlier post.


If any of us might have started buying in the $50ks and then stopped buying when the BTC price went down, then we retain our average cost per BTC in the $50ks.  Sure if we keep buying then we lower our cost per BTC, but we do not reduce the cost of the earlier BTC that we bought.

Don't get me wrong, I advocate the continued and ongoing purchasing of BTC, and maybe we are explaining the dynamics of how risk might be reduced differently... But still continuing to buy does not necessarily reduce risk, even though it may well cause the need for the BTC price to go up to be less than it would be if sticking with ONLY the purchases above $50k.


I am a bit unclear of your point here.  You are suggesting that since you have not seen shitcoins go to zero, then bitcoin's chances of going to zero are even less than the odds of shitcoins going to zero.  Your logic seems to be quite a bit less clear than the points that I was making in regards to accounting for negative scenarios in bitcoin and who gives any shits about shitcoins in order to make the points that bitcoin could have negative price scenarios that are outside of your expectations, but you should attempt to account for them, even if they might be lower level scenarios.


The upside versus downside scenarios seem to be more nuanced than how you seem to be describing them, but I would be willing to concede that we are arguing over semantics rather than substance, and I see no reason to modify anything that I had already stated on the topic.


The fact that someone does not consider profits to be guaranteed does not necessarily mean that s/he has NOT invested enough into bitcoin.  On a personal level, by the time, late 2014 came and I kind of figured out my BTC accumulation targets, I was ONLY targeting investing 10% of my investment portfolio into BTC, but by the time we got to the end of 2015, I had gotten to around 13.5% invested, which was higher than my target, but still was not the limit of my capabilities, and surely my BTC profits went up stupendously between 2015 and currently, and surely there was no need to aim for BIGGER profits, even though they would have had been possible, and personally I consider that the balance had worked out pretty well, even though the 86.5% of my investment portfolio from 2015 had ONLY less than doubled in value until now, but my BTC went up more than 37x (accounting for some mistakes that were made along the way too).. but still, part of the point that I am making is that you can invest for various UPside scenarios without even considering upside to be even close to guaranteed, but at the same time to be prepared for various downside scenarios too.

Surely you have been registered on the forum for nearly as long as me, but I hardly can know if you are managing your psychology and your finances in a way that accounts for a variety of scenarios.  Surely we are posting in a public forum, so whatever my comments responding to your points are not personal, and you can do whatever you like in terms of managing your expectations.. and how you prepare for various short, medium and/or longer term scenarios

I get some senses that we are not just arguing about semantics, but I also get a sense that you have differing ideas from me (more than just how we are expressing ourselves) about how to think about probabilities of some things happening in comparison to what ultimately ends up happening.

I am not necessarily going to stop responding when I differ in opinion from another member, and I believe that a point needs to be clarified, but sometimes I am not going to feel any need to repeat  points that I already made, even though sometimes if I am being directly confronted, I might choose to attempt to clarify, to the extent that I might feel that it is possible to clarify without too much just attempting to repeat points that I feel that I had already made more clearly at an earlier time.