Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 43. (Read 138764 times)

well, this might just be what works for an individual and not a general rule that should be followed by every bitcoin investor. it is a good example of looking at a scenario where you try to factor in some sort of possibility of taking out some profit along your investment journey. the Essense of the profit might not be because you actually need it but could just be a way of rewarding your consistency in maintaining a complete year of staying invested in bitcoin.

one thing about using a strategy like this is that if you have been able adapt to sorting out your needs without interfering in your investment, going on to touch 10% of your holding might look unnecessary since it can't really solve more of your needs but can still yield some additional profit if you left it untouched. deciding to take out either 10% or 5% is not an issue, what is the issue is when you just try to touch your holding just because you are in some profit. touching your holding has a tendency of giving you a thought of always coming back to lay your hands on it.
as an investor, greed is not even a variable that plays a role here. what happens more is the tendency of following the crowd to make popular decision of selling or taking profit even when you are early in your accumulation stage. at early stage, taking of profit should not be your primary concern and to an extent, expecting the price of bitcoin to suddenly get to $250k should not be your concern since you have not acquired a good chunk of bitcoin. when you are a bit balanced in the quantity of bitcoin you have acquired, you can then talk about doing some things like taking a certain percentage of your profit as a way of encouraging yourself to remain invested for the long run.

Instead of a 10% cash out an investor can bring down 5%, but this is a profit for them with the increase in holdings. Or if it is possible to meet the needs of the family/additional needs without cash out. This can be a patience for investors and there are many among bitcoiners.
I expect the price of Bitcoin to touch $ 250k by the end of 2025. The right strategy with probability and reality is to save regularly. If you focus yourself on the growth of wealth then you should continue to buy Bitcoin regardless of the price movement towards long-term Bitcoin savings. Short-term greed constantly exhausts traders which makes sense for investors to be more tempted to hold Bitcoin and apply other strategies that are more effective during periods of price fluctuations.

Simply put - there is never a wrong time to invest more in Bitcoin.
Dips will be there, corrections will be there, and cycles will change themselves, but the truth will remain certain - Bitcoin would still be on top and everybody else who hodls will be reaping the boons from it.
If a person understands BTC - he won't have shaky hands. Never.

Buddy first and foremost are we to keep identifying the dip to keep buying then, I think I need a clarity from you to that effect, no doubt we are in bull run but not fully in bullrun, I think my advice is lets not see the current price as a big deal to buy, though Bitcoin will continue experiencing correction and upsurge respctively as such in the future the $100k plus price we are into now will be a history and also a small price compared to the one we will see them, I think as a newbie you should be more focused on how to increase your Bitcoin holdings by keeping up with your acumulation slowly and steadily and hodl for a long-term instead of talking about the dip that you won't know how long it will last.
We have talk about constant check of the market price as a discouragement in building a bulky portfolio in Bitcoin investment, so why are we still seeing the price check as an option to achieving our long-term goal in the said investment.

Buddy you may have a knowledge in Bitcoin investment when looking at your writeups but I will encourage you to buy at all time if you've not started doing that already and if you aren't convinced much then you can ask our boss @JayJuanGee some questions for more clarity this is my friendly advise to you, I said this because as a newbie, you should be more concerned about learning before contributing though this my peronal opinion but don't get it twisted.

It's best to say that buy bitcoin every time you have the capital to invest not just the dips better still dollar cost average every week or month when you have the capital. it's best to invest now because definitely this price that seems so high today would be the dip of tomorrow so if you buy today you'll figure out in times to come that you bought the dips but buying at any giving price you see today.

Of course bitcoin will make some fall backs but they're not permanent so they will keep going back making new ATHs hence you will be in profit in a longer range of time which is why we consider bitcoin a long term investment as it's not a get rich quick scheme.

If one is waiting the right entry price which is the dips you might end up not buying at all as market will always make some fake out that will put you on the edge thinking it will fall more then you can buy successful whereas it's not so as you might wait forever in the process of chasing the dips.

I really appreciate the effort and time that you put in to break down the concept of managing a Bitcoin stash over time while gradually cashing out.  This is more of a logical approach. What caught my attention is that this method encourages discipline. It will prevent the emotional mistake of other people selling too much in a bull market or holding onto our investment indefinitely without taking any profits to improve financial security. It would be better if someone wanted to maximize the value of each 10% sale, they could aim to cash out during periods that tend to repeat itself or even times when the price increases majorly.

And another thing to consider is reinvestment. If someone doesn’t need all the cash they’ve cashed out, they could set aside a portion to reinvest during bear markets. Through that way they can effectively replenish their stash.

I so much like your second to last and the last line of this your post and that is the more reason one shouldn't loan money whether or installment or not to me it's not advisable even though you are working and your salary is okay because we can't actually tell what will happen in the next minute, you may be thinking that your job is so secured for you that no one can assume the position that is normal but you don't know what your boss or your madam is planning on doing whether to keep or change you. I want you to know that any job or work that is not a self employed is not certain because you can be replace anytime any day and what will it become of a person that is  been sacked from a place if work when they have loan money and invest, and if there's no reserve funds definitely you will be tempted to touch your investment which is not good and secondly it might be that your investment is in loss at that point it time. I see all these as unnecessary pressure.

Buying at the dip isn't anything difficult to identify,  if you have been following the market price of bitcoin you would have discovered different moments of dip from when price first got to $100k it retraced and made a dip before setting a new ATH at $104k and then pulled back again. These pull backs could be identified as a dip except that at every point when the price rises there's a price mark you have set for yourself for price to fall down to before you get to identify it as price dip. You have to be aware that we're in the bullish season and as such you shouldn't expect price to fall down down below to declare a clear dip, that can only happen when we are going bearish.

Sure, if we really wanted to go through the calculations, we can also see how much that BTC was worth each year and to see how his income was likely going up too.. even though there would have been some years that his income would have gone down from the previous year, yet his ongoing cashing out 10% per year also resulted in an increased income from the bitcoin each year while his BTC was going up in value faster than he would have had been able to spend it.. so long as he restricted his withdrawals to 10% per year..

Part of the reason that I frequently suggest that guys get to an overaccumulation status prior to starting to withdraw (sell) from their bitcoin stash is that once the more than enough status is reached then it is likely that we can come up with sustainable withdrawal formulas that are able to sustain us perpetually on the amount of BTC that we have accumulated.. we just have to figure out how to moderate it within reasonable parameters.

Of course, it is not guaranteed to pay off either, but we can still attempt to create reasonable parameters, too.


We cannot know the exact range of numbers, yet there should be inspiration for normal people to continue to try their best to continue to ongoingly, persistently, consistently and perhaps aggressively to accumulate bitcoin in order to potentially have more options down the road, and even though the results are not guaranteed, bitcoin's investment thesis still remains strong for the coming 10-20 years or whenever you might be starting to come close to reaching your accumulation (or maybe overaccumulation) goals (that you will likely need to reassess from time to time along the way too)... one of the less advantaged things for folks in their early accumulation is that the BTC's price rising might bring confirmations, but it also ends up costing more per BTC (sat), yet there is no way to really get overly preoccupied beyond just continuing to stack your sats as well you are able to do.


Sure, a person can set his cashout parameters, and it remains a good idea to spend from less valuable sources prior to spending bitcoin, so I was mostly trying to give a kind of flatline idea that was general and not individually particularized.  Another thing that I have found is that it may be better to withdraw the BTC based on a dollar value that is associated with the 200-WMA rather than drawing out a flat BTC amount, yet either system could still end up working for someone who might have had already assessed that he has reached a status of overaccumulation of BTC based on his own circumstances.


Personally, I believe that the BTC holders who have engaged in incremental practices of selling their BTC rather than selling large portions at once have tended to fair better.. especially if they tried to figure out systems in which they were selling small portions of their BTC rather than large portions, and sure even 10% seems a bit much (large), yet I have been tending to show that BTC has been outperforming traditional asset classes in order that larger percentage withdrawals have been sustainable in BTC as compared with traditional investments usually needing to restrict withdrawals to ONLY 4 % or less.. The idea is that the asset needs to outperform the withdrawal rate in order to justify the withdrawal rate that is chosen... otherwise the withdrawal rate is not sustainable.


Since we cannot turn back the clock, we just have to try to figure out our BTC accumulation plan from the present, and if we feel that we don't have enough BTC, we have to continue to accumulate it... and sure your calculations might start to change once you start to reaching a status of having enough BTC or you have the fortune of getting to a status of having more than enough BTC.

Good explanation sir.
But if they cash it out every year of course it is a bad choice if they don't really need the money urgently.
Maybe that's just an example but yes it can be understood if holding since 2011 of course he bought at a fairly cheap price. I did a Google search that the price of Bitcoin in December 2011 was only around $4.25.

Maybe what I can take from here is a theory of a true holder who has been able to survive long enough from all the negative news and he managed to do it by holding btc until the btc price exceeded $100k.

I remember, investors of that type are those who understand the progress of the era, meaning they know btc from the beginning and continue to buy it regularly, of course that is a guideline that we can follow to continue accumulating bitcoin.

Amazing making the folk to be $24,263,320 Richer now despite the 10% withdrawal yearly . Indeed bitcoin changed such fella lives for the better, bitcoin also shows that been patient do pays off , such amount will carry his generation in a long run .

This also shows how beautiful bitcoin investment is . I'm going to keep holding so one day I'm going to share my testimony, on how God use bitcoin to change my live for the better . That's why I need to keep working towards that goal , the way Bitcoin is moving now there's no doubt of bitcoin hitting $150k around 2025 .

Sure.  Figuring out some kind of a reasonable way to sell some BTC on the way up while still mostly HODLing would not be a bad idea if it could be put into practice, including that it is true that many folks end up selling too much of their BTC too soon, yet even a person with a thousand bitcoin in mid 2011, might still be able to shave off 10% of his stash per year and still be quite wealthy today, and still having 228.7679245 BTC after selling in 2025.

Year   BTC stash size          Yearly Cashout amount          Total Cashed out
2011   1000                            100                                           100
2012   900                                90                                         190
2013   810                                81                                         271
2014   729                                72.9                                      343.9
2015   656.1                           65.61                                       409.51
2016   590.49                           59.049                                     468.559
2017   531.441                           53.1441                                 521.7031
2018   478.2969                           47.82969                              569.53279
2019   430.46721                      43.046721                              612.579511
2020   387.420489                      38.7420489                        651.3215599
2021   348.6784401                     34.86784401                     686.1894039
2022   313.8105961                     31.38105961                     717.5704635
2023   282.4295365                     28.24295365                     745.8134172
2024   254.1865828                     25.41865828                     771.2320755
2025   228.7679245                   22.87679245                     794.1088679

It is possible to even get above 100bitcoin per hour during it's early days, depending on the amount equivalent of your pay per hour.  Because it was worthless. There where many people who got pretty amount of bitcoin during it's early stage.  Example, Hal finey was the first man to received his first 10 bitcoin as a reward for for downloading bitcoin software and also the first person to perform bitcoin transaction on the 12 January 2009 block 170. Many people bought bitcoin very cheap owning a whooping amount ranging  from  10k 20k 50k before it started gaining recognition example lazslo.  After the Genesis block  which was 50BTC rewoard for miners, The having was 25 bitcoin meaning that many minners got alot  of bitcoin from adding transaction to the block.  So there's where alot of bitcoin back then because it was less in value.  Now the value has risen above expectations people see it as they where lucky but the truth is that no one knew it was going to be like this. Because many even sold along the line when bitcoin was within $100 as a results of being skeptical.

I agree about this because in the end diversification will only make the situation less optimal if it is done especially for beginners who are still sometimes confused because they are still minimal with what is done in terms of experience and knowledge so that instead of fumbling with many branches it will be more worth it with just one branch, if the focus is bitcoin then obviously bitcoin first which is still possible to do while learning it. I also questioned that with this new feature and the answer was not too bad for me for an AI answer class.



For the advisory issue actually sometimes this is adjusting for me because even though all choices are back to each person but I think when we have found a forum that is really decent enough like this forum and this thread of course then we actually don't need to think about finding a mentor because we can finally discuss freely and sometimes there are people who can explain better than mentors in this forum.

Back to the original topic regardless, actually looking at some of my initial random questions to AI yesterday is actually quite similar to the discussion here because in the end DCA and the vulnerable time discussed are enough to make me satisfied with the answer.

Back then most of them believe bitcoin is going to surge to greater and it's literally doing so , and they are still space for more break through in bitcoin, going through the replies i saw someone that commented saying he is been paid 50 btc per hour , and now that's like 500k range per hour wow holding is  really beautiful, if such user endup holding till now , the folk will be in good profits, but holding in such range ain't easy but still worth it .

Here is a link to that above thread.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.169751

The old days was a really mucky layout for Bitcoin and the market, it was more difficult to believe in the market than that how it is as of now. 2011 ATH was raised at $31 comparing to a speculation of the price getting to $10,000, it would have taken the best of trust to casually accept such future expectation especially when there was absolute lack of trust  against the community.

Just at this level of crossing ATH, many investors are already getting tied to predictions on $1M, i believe it is easy because of more adoption alongside every significant price increase, from historical charts and evaluation the market has proven to keep getting the positive outline which also denotes surest possibility of hitting a nine digit valuation.

I just updated one of my post from Dec 26, 2023, where I did small analysis of Lump Sum vs DCA for four year (Dec 27, 2019 to Dec 27, 2023). Now I have extended that four years to five years (Dec 27, 2019 to Dec 18, 2025). ROI for Lump Sum is still way ahead of DCA and this gives us idea that Lump Sum for longer duration can give you good ROI.

ROI for investing 100 dollars per week starting from Dec 27, 2019 to Dec 18, 2024 is +336.

ROI for investing 26k Lump Sum on Dec 27, 2019 and HODL till date gives you ROI of +1287.

Don't be confused by the title of the thread, it can only be an inspiration and op has used it to motivate investors to be more motivated to use Bitcoin. You can't expect dips every time during continuous investment, you should keep the mindset of saving at different prices and try to HOLD. It is like a habit and saving Bitcoin with the daily needs of the family and your own financial satisfaction for the future. The need for a backup fund is certainly there, but the guys should be aware of the intentional need for your backup/floating fund right after starting Bitcoin and have an alternative funding arrangement for small emergencies to enrich their own enlighten future.

You should not see the need to be backup fund to start Bitcoin, you should only focus on the continuity of any amount of savings regularly. (Additional backup fund in the initial stage which is an obstacle to starting your investment.) The need for floating cash/backup fund must be there and you should be sure to ensure its supply from the disposable and periodically.

  👀



A person who would dare to say that he truly believes Bitcoin will surge to more than $10,000 per Bitcoin during 2011 is a VISIONARY.

It's easier to make a projection of Bitcoin going from $3,000 to a six digit valuation or more during 2019 than it is to imagine Bitcoin surging from $1.00 to $100 during 2011 in my opinion.