Of course, any of us can feel some stress both when the BTC price goes up a lot and also when it crashes back down. I attempted to put a system in place in order that I would sell small amounts on the way up and then buy back in increments as the BTC prices falls back down, yet I did not start that plan until I felt that I had reached a state of overaccumulation.
The amounts that are sold on the way up are relatively small... tending to get smaller and smaller with the passage of time, yet back in 2017, I was selling a bit less than 10% every time the BTC price doubled (yet in smaller increments on the way up), and so the value of the BTC holdings become much higher when the BTC price is going up rather than going down, but the sold amounts on the way up provide some comfort when the BTC price goes down, and in 2018 that was about 85% at the maximum down point. So there can be some stress and regrets, yet we still have to figure out what is a good system overall.. and there were a lot of guys who were stressing in 2018, yet still some of them still were not at a point that they had accumulated enough BTC so they needed to keep accumulating.... even if they had gotten in around the same time as me or maybe some of them were newer than me into bitcoin, so it can be stressful to go through those kinds of periods.
We had a similar period in 2022, even though the amount of UP was not the same as 2017, the amount of down got to very similar levels of despair, especially since the 2022 correction ended up going way below the 200-WMA, which had not happened in prior correction cycles. Really 2022 we had nearly 16 months of the BTC spot price being around or below the 200-WMA, with the max low point of the BTC spot price getting to right around 36% below the 200-WMA.
I think that for me personally, I have gotten better at dealing with the volatility, but it still is not easy, but it helps to mostly be in profits by many multiples, so even if we might consider that I had times in which my average cost per BTC was around $500 (and perhaps even below) $500 per BTC, I would like to error correct that my cost per BTC may well be between $750 and $1k per BTC, and so I frequently like to round to $1k per BTC in order to help to consider the level of profits within easier to calculate boundaries... so maybe we say that my profits in 2017 and afterwards went from being in the negative to being 20x in profits, yet the correction back down put me in the 3.5x to 10x territory for many parts of 2017 and all the way until 2020...
So then the 2021 run brought my holdings up to 69x profits, but then dropped back down to 16x profits at the lowest point, and so even though there can be stress in either direction, the cushion between cost per BTC and abilities to cash out get greater, so if a person is managing their BTC holdings well, even if BTC continues to be volatile, there might not be big differences in terms of cashing out at 50x-ish or even cashing out at 108x, especially since the cash out amounts might ONLY be a fraction over the overall holdings.
So a guy could decide to cash out a certain quantity of BTC that might have cost him $100 worth of BTC, and if he cashes out at 55x, then he will get $5,550 for that $100 investment, or maybe if he were cashing out today he would get $9,700 for that same $100 cost. Sure it makes a difference, but it might not be a great difference in terms of the Bitcoin continuing to give value and options, and no real compelling need to cash out large portions, just cash out amounts that are reasonably needed and when there might not be other sources of cash to spend first.
There can be questions about "I need to spend more," and some of that problem comes from having gone through a lot of the periods of just letting bitcoin's compounding value play out and not cashing out too much too soon, so that later down the road more options might end up coming available. Such options are not guaranteed, but they seem to be worth taking chances to put value into bitcoin since bitcoin's investment thesis does not seem to be getting any weaker, even if its upside potential might not be as great as it was 10 years ago.
Yes, I understand of course there is a basis for thinking that continues to be thought of when the market situation changes suddenly. But is there anything else that should be done at a time like that, for example like you where your accumulation has reached a point of satisfaction and is there a stronger thought that supports the idea of continuing to buy when dips come.
With your long experience and good management, of course you have succeeded in reaping quite a large profit in the bitcoin investment that you have made.
However, I am not very good at calculating percentages but with your initial accumulation in 2013 of course you have achieved a lot of percentages if calculated at the current price.
How is your mindset where you can manage as well as possible when you decide to sell when you need it.
To be honest, we are still in a fairly early accumulation because we have not reached 5 years of routine investment, I plan to follow your steps in the future, when satisfaction is achieved we will do the calculation to achieve the percentage of profit in the time we spend investing in bitcoin. For example, in the 6th year we will calculate the amount of profit, but in such conditions, hopefully our steps will continue to accumulate until reaching the 10-year mark.
