Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 434. (Read 123271 times)

I totally agree with what you have said so far, and I do say that it is very difficult to find out the right time that Bitcoin will be at the bottom. Today I can say that Bitcoin was about $28,900k but within some little moments it started going down to $28,600 and lower, but didn't go below the range of $28k and, so far, the past few months, I can tell how bitcoin was in the range of $25k, and I do say that the $25k was the bottom for these months.
We can not tell the actual bottom unless Bitcoin has increased in a skyrocketing way and that is the reason why I have said that the $25k from the previous month we have experienced, and that is the bottom of it, and now, while looking at the price, it's $28k.
It's good to hear how you have applied the DCA strategy to your anthology, as this is the time to use the strategy to accumulate.

I can tell you for a fact that the DCA method is always a good strategy irrespective of the market condition. The advantages far outweighs any disadvantage you might envisage. Just know why you are buying Bitcoin and allow DCA help you achieve your target with less worries.
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With what you have said so far and with the little knowledge I have, I do say that the DCA method is one of the best that an investor should use to accumulate more Bitcoin, because it can still help them in one way to learn how to reduce their expenses so that they can accumulate more coin without any worries about how badly the investment is going.

Your statement is not correct.  Lump sum and buying on dip are two different concepts.  Sure, they can be combined, but it is not accurate to proclaim that either they have to be combined or that we should strive to combine them.. In other words, sometimes it might be better to just buy rather than waiting for a dip, and if someone has a lump sum of fiat that is available to be invested into bitcoin, then there there are options regarding how to divide such money into the three main categories, which is 1) DCA, 2) buying on dip and 3) buying right away.. and even within the three categories there are likely various options regarding how to structure. including amounts, spreads, increments.


I doubt it.  You can weigh for yourself the advantages and disadvantages of any of the buying methods, whether DCA, buying on dips or right away, and advantage/disadvantages might depend upon what you might be attempting to achieve.  Sure if you are wanting to attempt some kind of maximizing the potential for you to get as rich as possible and as fast as possible, that might not be a clear enough wish because we cannot know exactly how the BTC price is going to perform, so we cannot really set our strategy in a way that will assure to reach our goal, but instead we likely need to balance our strategy with various scenarios in order to prepare us financially and psychologically for a variety of possible scenarios, even if ONLY one scenario is going to end up playing out, but we don't know which of the scenarios it will be even if we likely attempt to structure our practice in terms of what is most likely to play out, but it would still result in poor risk management to completely structure our approach as if what we consider to be the most likely scenario as if it were 100% guaranteed to play out, even though we might have had assigned such scenario to have the highest probability of playing out.


I doubt it.

You first have to presume someone has the ability to do lump sum, and then you are looking at a smaller group of people as compared to just saying "most people"  Most people don't do lump sum is because they don't even have the possibility to do it.  So if we then presume that they have the option, we still might recognize a variety of reasons that absent some peculiar circumstances, many of them might not want to lump sum with everything that they have available, even though they might choose to lump sum with a portion of it.  Someone who has $10k that s/he is able to invest, might choose to lump sum with 1/3rd of it $3,333.33  .. or perhaps some other amount, and may well divide other parts into DCA and buying on dip reserves.. But sure some of them might choose a different percentage and might choose to not do DCA. and may choose to wait for dips, and sure they might end up screwing themselves if they wait for dips that do not end up happening, but yeah people do dumb things because sometimes they are either greedy or scared and don't know enough about their investment, but merely because people do dumb things, we shouldn't necessarily presume that everyone is doing it .. or most are doing it?


ok.. we are not really saying anything differently, here.


No problem.  When you have a lump sum amount, then you have discretion regarding how you want to structure your buys.


You are not exactly wrong, but I would suggest that one of the most crucial aspects is to attempt to tailor your plan to your own particular circumstances, and perhaps from time to time, you need to review the extent to which your personal circumstance might have changed enough to change what you are doing.  So it is good to have goals and targets and to tweak from time to time, but sometimes you could end up having long periods of time in which you are not really making any changes and just sticking with your same purchase amount.


I am not in the same phase of my investment journey as the overwhelming majority of the population, including members participating in this thread.  An overwhelming number of the world including members of this thread is either in accumulation phase or pre-accumulation phase.  Even though I accumulate from time to time, I mostly went through my BTC accumulation in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and sure sometimes it can be difficult for any of us to know where we are at in our bitcoin journey, but I doubt that it is going to be very helpful to attempt to do what I am doing when it does not really apply to what you likely should be doing. which is accumulating bitcoin and tailoring your bitcoin accumualtion to your own circmstances.


I personally believe it is best to get your shit in order in regards to bitcoin first.  Why fuck around with shitcoins, except maybe up to 10% of your bitcoin size, but even then if you invest in shitcoins, you are distracting yourself and you are diluting your bitcoin financials.

Yes, I know people are easily distracted into shitcoins and believe that there are ways to "get rich" quicker by fucking around with shitcoins, but the mere fact that a lot of folks are distracted into shitcoins does not mean that you should allow yourself to get lured into such overwhelming nonsense and gobble-dee-gook.. especially if you don't seem to know what bitcoin is, and you seem to have had not established a decent bitcoin position, yet..


Yeah, but the odds are not exactly equal that the price might go to $20k or not, so even if you consider that the BTC price might go to $20k, sure there is no problem in terms of preparing for such possibility with some amount of your available resources, but if you don't have any BTC or you have ONLY a little, you should probably be buying rather than fucking around with waiting for something that has decent odds of not happening..

So, how you prepare for up while simultaneously preparing for down partially will depend on how many BTC that you have but it depends on alot of your circumstances regarding your cashflow and your other assets and even your goals, so if you have $100k in your overall investment portfolio and you have $10k in bitcoin (that's 10%) and then you have some cash and some cashflow (maybe $100 per week extra for bitcoin and maybe $5k saved up for buying on dips), then you have to figure it out. How much of that saved up amount are you going to allocate to bitcoin buying as the money comes in, saving to buy on dips,  and how are you going to allocate to each of those categories... it is not obvious to not buy now or to wait or even to divide it 50/50, but some people are more inclined towards gambling than others.

Another thing is that BTC prices are not very much above the 200-week moving average (which is now about $28,200), so it is not exactly as if the BTC price is in a historically high price range.. and yeah the 200-week moving average does not exactly tell us that we are in a bottom, because further dips can end up happening, but still sounds like gambling to me when you are seeming to assign such high expectations as if $20k were equally as likely as $35k or whatever it is that you are wanting to proclaim.

Rightfully said, buying the DIP and holding is another effective strategy most persons apply to accumulate there Bitcoin. But no skills can be 100 percent accurate in predicting the price, so why not buy at specific intervals at that price instead of just hoping on the dip alone

This is the concern  , Stictions don't own reliability and DCA works with only potential/reliable assets here in the crypto market this supremacy is only dominated by Bitcoin. Here is a point to be considered these shitcoins are worth with hype only and they don't possess any long-term potential and narrative. Intentionally what I want to say is Yes! Fuck Shitcoins.


The accumulation journey in Bitcoin can face many ups and downs here, the efficiency depends on the accumulator and how he executes his strategy throughout the journey. DCA is a most recognized and effective accumulation strategy, moreover, you can say that this is one of the most discussed topics here in this thread and particularly all over the forum. Buying the Dips can be another effective strategy but it requires some analysis skills and proper risk management. At the same time with respect to market volatility strong holding power is required which is rare.


Navigating the unpredictable waters of the market, especially for newcomers, can feel like riding a rollercoaster. The ups and downs, the sudden shifts—it's enough to trigger fear, uncertainty, and even the notorious FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). These fluctuations, natural as they are, can sometimes make you question your decisions, sow seeds of doubt, and give birth to the infamous FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt).

Hmm, Yes buddy your consideration is more efficient, This is what aformentioned by me, with DCA you can integrate other strategies and keep enforcing your  DCA regularly. Timing the Dips is a significant concern but if you can identify the timeframe and zone you can really time the dips as beginner still its not recommended at all.

If you can save money and invest in some reliable sector (which you can handle yourself) then there are bright chances that you will get success over a period of time.
I know a person story who has just a small job in Bank and he is accumulating cement shares for last 20 years for 10% of his monthly savings. His net worth of cement shares is now quite high and he has now achieved his Fuck You status.
With time we learn new things and that gives us idea whether we are moving in right directions or not that's the main reason why people who invest for long term are more likely to achieve there fuck you status.


For accumulating Bitcoin, the best way is to do it in DCA manner or investing small amount as and when available. You were talking about 200$ per week, this is quite a money for many people like me. Whatever one can invest easily and for long term is best way to accumulate Bitcoin. The reward is high on high amount but for that don't push yourself to things like taking loans for investment. Just be consistent in buying and don't forget to cash out some portion when you are getting some good profit.    

you just talked about bottom line of the dip, how do you know when it gets to such point. Bitcoin price could be stable at 23k for months and there you think the bull has started unfortunately enough there will be another dip, so this is where DCA heads the system of accumulating Bitcoin

There is no time at which it is said to be unfavorable in buying Bitcoin, even buying bitcoin at 23k and it dips down to 19k, i should already know Bitcoin is volatile and that should have been on my A list, my 1 Bitcoin remains my 1 Bitcoin and its a must i see my profits as long it is for the long term

Your response seem more like buying the dips than applying DCA. Buying 1 BTC now and expecting or waiting for further dips to buy more is not actually DCA but buying the dips.

If you are following DCA strictly in that case you can just decide to use the three months remaining to exhaust that money. One-third of the fund per month is not a bad plan. If price dips further the following month that means more Bitcoin will be added to your portfolio and if price rises, that means less Bitcoin will be purchased for the funds set aside. Since the DCA method do not pay much attention to the price, you will be fulfilled you invested the $100k into Bitcoin.

The beauty of this method is that if price rises the following month, that means the lower amount of Bitcoin you will receive the following month due to the rise in price, would have already been compensated for by the first month purchase that would have entered heavy profits following the rise in price. If in the third month it rises further, the previous months will do likewise to the higher price purchase, meaning in dollar value, you are not loosing.

Lucky for you, you did not fall for the temptation that arises during that period. It was nice to know that you were fast enough to learn about DCA when you came across it, only a few would have adopted it. Your experience so far is exactly why advisors typically have people DCA. Statistically they would say you can't speculate the price of Bitcoin so put it all in. However, there is usually some uncertainty in the market that would make the investor to be concerned about this, so if you decide to DCA and you either buy into a decline market or an appreciating market you will kind of feel good either way. DCA aims to assist investors in overcoming the emotional hurdle of making a huge investment and then witnessing its decline.



What you just said would it still be considered as a form of DCA'ing if you invested a lump sum at consistent intervals over a longer period of about 10 weeks like you said? 
Does that still qualify it as DCA'ing?

The challenge with seeking the bottom is that there is no technique that is accurate in predicting what the bottom is. If you remember, just few months ago Bitcoin price was stuck around $29k qwhich made many people assumed that was the bottom. Many bottom seekers went long in line with what you have said. Little did they know that price will dip lower to even below $25k thereby proving once again how difficult it is to determine the bottom.
I was actually tempted to go all in that period before I learnt DCA and setting limit orders following conversation in this thread and WO. I have to spread my position to lower prices and when the dip finally happened, most of those positions triggered at lower prices thereby giving me more Bitcoin than I would have gotten.

Now I apply the DCA completely and I hardly pay attention to the price, the dips, news or whatever... I just buy the amount set aside for Bitcoin. This truly brought a whole different feeling and peace.


I can tell you for a fact that the DCA method is always a good strategy irrespective of the market condition. The advantages far outweighs any disadvantage you might envisage. Just know why you are buying Bitcoin and allow DCA help you achieve your target with less worries.

Lump sum buying is more of advantage when bitcoin price is at the bottom line of the dip, at this time, all you need to do is to buy once and just sit down and watch how the price starts going up again and your investment will also start increasing with the timeline. Apart from that time, the DCA method is still the most welcome strategy to use in buying bitcoin, this can also help you have plans on some other investment you want to diversify to.

The DCA method is not for only the low income earners, it is used by everyone, but the rich and the poor to accumulate bitcoin at regular interver to increase their bitcoin investment portfolio at ease, since they have the passion to keep on accumulating. Since it is very difficult to know when the dip will come, but if you buy at lump sum when the price of bitcoin is not at the dip, you will not be happy when the price begins to dip below the price that you bought, and that is where DCA come to play because you are buying regular irrespectively of the price of bitcoin at that moment.

Since you have enough money to invest, you can buy one BTC and hold it for a long time. Some of the new investors who are planning for long term investment may face some dilemma after reading this post of yours. New investors may think you are holding for a long time by buying one BTC and their investment is nothing compared to yours thus they may be reluctant to invest long term. If new investors read your post then they should definitely read my post I hope reading my post will clear all their dilemmas.

First you buy one btc amount of bitcoin with your deposited money and hold it for long time but new investors may plan to invest some amount regularly every month. If new investors think like this then welcome new investors for long term investment. Because with the investment of a certain amount of Bitcoin every month, it will be seen that the new investor's investment amount is much higher and the new investor may never have imagined that after a long time his total investment can be so high.
The difference between a person who invests one btc amount of money and a new investor is that the new investor will invest a part of his monthly income in bitcoins and a person who invests one btc amount of money together has invested money together every month. From this point of view, the person who invests every month is more likely to be successful in his investment because if he invests every month, if the value of Bitcoin increases, then that person will definitely profit.

Thanks for explaining this in detail. There are actually many ways to approach DCA, but the most crucial aspect is sticking to your plan with discipline. If you don't mind, could you share the method you're currently using in detail? And aside from Bitcoin, are there any Altcoins you're interested in for long-term investments?
Perhaps, as of January this year, $20,250 is already the year's low, according to your analysis. Currently, there are two conflicting predictions: one suggests that Bitcoin will rise from this point, while the other argues it will drop to test the $20,000 price and fill the CME gap. It's indeed challenging to predict which one will turn out to be accurate. However, I still intend to follow my plan and the analytics I've conducted.

Timing of the market is necessary but not everyone who wants to invest is ready to time the market, the thing is even though you time the market to invest if the market wants to go against your wish it will definitely go against your expectations,  but what are saying to have in mind that two things is involve for investment and they are profit and loss, when you cross the market and observe what the next move for the market can be you can either decide to invest or not.

Do you know that nobody who knows bitcoin too well neglected the disadvantages of bitcoin, so what I wanted us to do for investment bitcoin is that let us not hoping always for the profit because when focus on profit and the market goes against us we will not be delighted, let us understand that bitcoin investment is investment of opportunity and when you profit its  base on your luck and when you profit it's base on your luck it's not do and die affairs were you believe that you definitely make profit..that is what some people arr saying invest and remove mind don't think you make it all with your Timing in bitcoin investment some Timing can fail

I think you get it wrong concerning the point @Jay was trying to make, although I no that everything that has advantage may also have disadvantages but however Jay was given an instance that sometimes using lump sum is good because it gives you the advantage to buy everything at once with a favorable price, for example if the Bitcoin price is $27k or 25k you could buy with the lump sum because there is no much different but however waiting for the price to drop more before buying could sometimes happened that instead of dropping, it moves higher and affecting your lump sum.

Talking about disadvantage I don't think there is much disadvantage of what Jay was saying but however is not mandatory to buy everything at a time perhaps if the price was not suitable for you to buy at once and you are not sure of Bitcoin price movement, you can DCA to accumulate some certain amount while you wait for the right dip for you to lump sum, so I don't think there is any disadvantage on what he was saying.

I have checked and analyze what you said JJG. You have to consistently watch and time the market for the dip to come before you could lump sum. You speak only but a few advantages towards lump sum investing and neglect the disadvantages of it. While most people don't do lump sum is because of market timing. It's not certain to predict precisely when the price dip will occur at any given time, and you don't always have the fiat to hold and wait for the decline, as you're unaware of its timing.

Statistically speaking to avoid wrong timing of the market if I see a lump sum like that I wont buy immediately because of the dip, I will still do it the DCA way but this time huge amount because i see no harm in spreading it out over several weeks or month.

Yeah you have a point, for those who have enough funds that cannot be affected if using a bigger amount to buy Bitcoin can actually buy a higher amount of Bitcoin at a time and however DCA method may not be use for these kind of investment because the investor may already have more than enough money that could buy a whole lot of Bitcoin and still  have many reserve funds waiting.

So irrespective of how important DCA strategy is, perhaps there are some kind of investment or accumulating patterns that may not require the need to DCA because sometimes due to the kind of funds we may have, we can decide to invest at once instead of buying bit by bit, so I believe that DCA strategy is based more on the people that has a low capital and that's managing to accumulate Bitcoin.

I just outlined a way that you can DCA in a way that attempts to capture the dip for the week.  I don't see how that would be inferior in any way for someone who wants to attempt to do it. If you dont' have the time, then it is another story.. just set your DCA and forget it.

I personally am not much of a fan for automatic DCA because or the way that exchanges don't tend to allow specific customization of the times that you buy, but likely are batching the DCA buy times..... .. yet I can understand that people might not want to have to manually make their BTC buys, whether it is weekly or maybe on some other timeframe, and those are personal choices regarding how to spend time, which are going to likely vary quite a bit and may or may not end up resulting in better performance than some strict DCA approach that might end up getting gamed by exchanges if your buy time is being batched rather than being capable of individual tailoring regarding specifically when it takes place.


If you have a lump sum, you can still divide it into parts, and you could decide whether you are going to buy some of those on dips and/or to DCA and/or to just buy right away.

So the portion that you have set for DCA, then you might take 1/3 and just set it up over 6 months or a year or even over 1 or 2 months.

So if you have $33k, then maybe you set them up for $1k per week for 33 weeks or you could pick a different amount per time period .. you could do daily or you could do bi-weekly, monthly or quarterly... there are quite a few options that would just set up your buy amounts based on how quickly you want to inject your purchases whether you want your amount to get put in fairly rapidly or you want to spread it aout for a while.

Many times people are using DCA because either they do not have lump sums available or because maybe they want to pace their investment, such as a person might hold $40k in equities, $30k in property, $30k in bonds $10k in cash and cash equivalents and $30k in gold.  Maybe if the person wants to slim down his/her gold holdings, from $30k to $15k, s/he will decide to slim down by $1k per month over the next 15 months or surely some other time period and amount could be used, but it is a way to pick a timeline to ease out of an investment and also sometimes people might just decide to stop investing in one asset or another and just divert those funds to other assets, and that would be another way to accomplish similar kinds of reallocations, without using lump sums but instead DCAing... even though in that last example lump sums would optionally be available to the person but easing from one investment to another frequently feels better, and may well have fewer potentially negative tax ramifications, too.


Of course, you are correct Dr.Bitcoin_Strange that there can be quite a few advantages towards lump sum investing, especially when it seem that price might have either dipped or might not go down any further.

There are no guarantees that they will end up going up, but it does seem that you are a bit more prudent when you buy on dips and you also consider that sometimes there are advantages to frontloading your BTC investment, even if there might be further dips, especially if you have longer term plans.. which also gets us to one of the reasons that it might not really matter that much if you buy at $30k or $28k or if you were able to get some at $25k or $20k, but in the end, we may or may not get any more opportunities to even buy sub $30k.. so there could be advantages to putting it all, even though when I get lump sums like that, I prefer to consider all three of the buying categories that involve buying right away, DCA and buying on dips, so it is a matter of personal perspective (and discretion) to the extent that the weighings in any of the categories might deviate from a 1/3 default or if more or less might go in one or more of the categories.


Of course, you need to consider all of your personal circumstances in order to consider what you BTC accumulation targets might be... I have given several examples in the past, and so for example if your goal was to get to entry level fuck you status within 10 years, then you might need to get 5 bitcoin or more to start to feel that you are getting close to reaching your goal (as in my chart), but if you are at 8 bitcoin now, then you might feel that you have enough.. even though your timeline is 10 years.. and so you can project out what you believe to be your goals and how close you are to achieving them.. if you get to 8 BTC now, but you are still not sure whether your projection for 10 years is correct, you might still continue to accumulate BTC, but there still might be some point that you feel that you have enough or more than enough... but in order to feel more certain, you might need to see the price move enough to confirm your beliefs... or at least bring you to a point that you are convinced that you have enough.


People have differing goals, and some times they might not know what they want, or maybe they feel that they are a long way from their goal, so they just strive to reach it.. but sometimes people reach their earlier goals and they then end up setting higher goals.. Another thing is that sometimes people become uncertain or they set their goals based on bad evaluations and then if things end up not playing out how they expect because they valuated their value in wrong ways, then they might not have had reached their goal. 


People sometimes fail to account for the depreciation of the dollar and/or they fail account for the volatility of bitcoin.. so there are ways to make more accurate assessments, and I personally have been using the 200 week moving average, which I think is more helpful than spot price and/or trying to put your value into dollar based assets.  We do frequently need to be able to assess a variety of matters to make sure that we have adequately accounted for fluctuating values that might include changes in the cost of living or volatile assets such as bitcoin and some other factors (such as expenses) that should be somewhat knowable and even in need of some cushions so that we do not believe that we are at entry level fuck you status before we actually are or we have bad ways of managing our investments and/or wealth once we get to a status in which we might no longer be accumulation and we might move into either a maintenance stage or into some form of liquidation stage.


I prefer to talk about these kinds of topics in public threads rather than DM because it is just easier to share with many folks and then anyone can chime in on the topic if they disagree or if they have some of their own examples and/or ideas that they want to share.  Feel free to ask whatever you like or to bring some of your own examples, but several of the items that you mentioned can be seen in several of my already existing posts, so frequently it can be better to read through some of those posts and then maybe to attempt to direct your question more specifically or to bring some specific example that might relate to a dilemma that you might be having, which it seems that you already did that in your post..


Sure, if you keep buying BTC on a regular basis and then HODL if you run out of money, then the quantity of your BTC is going to continue to grow.  At the same, time you are not guaranteed that your BTC will go up in value, unless the BTC price goes up. .and that part is not guaranteed... but the part that your number of BTC will go up is guaranteed as long as you keep buying and holding. 

Accordingly, each of us does continue to have to make choices regarding how many BTC we want to holding and maybe how many we want to accumulate, whether it is actual amounts or we value in terms of dollars or we set aside a certain percentage of our monthly cashflow to buy BTC, 5%, 10% or some other amount.. maybe even up to 25%, and I don't necessarily recommend going above 25% for beginners unless you have thought through the matter and figured more than 25% to be acceptable for your own particulars.

This strategy is helpful when the price that you are buying at the dip, wouldn't go dipper, or you can continue buying even when it is dipper than expected and only use the $50 to DCA when the price pumps up again. I haven't thought of such moves and I don't think that I will love to practice is because most times, you will be vigilant with the market.

The steady DCA with a regular amount is what I am using to accumulate more bitcoin because I am a beginner and it has really been helpful especially when you have the passion to accumulate in a long term investment to increase your portfolio to a significant amount. Although JJG is talking from experience and the way he explained as long as your are hodli, your portfolio will definitely increase since it is a regular buying scheme.

Although this question is not directed at me, I am interested in answering this question, especially since I also do the DCA strategy that I do every week.
Before getting into the first question, I will say that in this strategy we need consistency and I think that also includes the amount of money we allocate each week, although I prefer to be more flexible, I mean when we have more money why don't we allocate the extra money? (provided that the money is really money that is not intended for other things.

If I have the money you mentioned, let's say $100k. That money is enough to buy approximately 3.5 bitcoins if converted at the current price. I have plans to buy at 3, 4 or 5 purchases, and it is situational. I will buy now with the amount of 1 bitcoin, I have a plan like this because I still see bitcoin still has the potential to go back down. And if the price goes back down I will buy another 1 or even more bitcoins.

This is what I do for dip buying, however i modified the timeframe to monthly. If at the end of the month none of the limit buys have filled I buy at market. I sometimes get lump sums during the year, so when market conditions hit certain situations I'm employ the dips buys. You could also call them dca buys since if they don't fill in the month they become DCA# at market buy. I used to use the number of posts in this thread as one market metric, but its turned into a dca debate so I don't any more.

Going into my data, I seem to accumulate more through DCA than I do in buying the dip though. I will continue with this strategy for another year, I'm interested in seeing some data for a halving year if this makes much difference or not. I'm still not 100% on whether BTFD & dca as hybrid is right way to accumulate or whether I should be more puritan and pick one over the other e.g DCA only  but increase dca amounts with lump.

Either way keep stacking :-)