Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 538. (Read 122897 times)

Anything that you post is fair game, whether you believe it to be trivial or not.


Fair enough.  I won't argue with that.   


Well, yeah.  It does seem that the proclamations about bitcoin going to zero are seen way less regularly, and perhaps it is becoming much more difficult to either believe those kinds of projections or to even figure out ways to say such a thing without looking like a total nutjob.

I do believe one of the better ways of denigrating bitcoin does end up being when bitcoin is not differentiated from the many retarded, scam, smoke & mirror, "crypto projects out there.. not sure if there is any need to name the so many variations of such deceptive projects and the ways that bitcoin is lumped in with that crap - while at the same time, there is some truth to the various claims that bitcoin had enabled (and maybe even continues to enable in some indirect ways) the abilities to carry out so many ways to lull people into not really necessarily knowing the differences, but then even perhaps getting invested in some kind of way.. mentally or financially into the so many ways that technology is adapting in the real world.

Regarding bitcoin, for sure in the past couple of years, if not longer, with the exception of March 2020, there have been quite a few struggles to even get the BTC price down to the 100-week moving average, and currently that 100-week moving average price is nearly up to $35k, and even in June/July 2021 when we got down to $28,600, the 100-week moving average was at about $20k, so surely the 100-week moving average has continued to hold up pretty well in the past couple of years, and perhaps it had not really been breached since March/April 2020 when it was at about $7,200 at that time.

You can see the historical 100-week moving average prices here.

I am not saying that the 100-week moving average might not end up breaking, and surely we seem to be getting quite close to it - because it continues to slowly move up to higher prices, yet I would not be putting any kind of meaningful value in terms of either believing that it has to be met - even though we surely do continue to have a lot of worrying macro-events ongoingly taking place as well as the seeming precariousness of the juggling of various fiat systems (possibly better known as bubbles?).

I continue to argue that the 100-week moving average tends to serve as a bottom price for corrections during a bull market, and perhaps the fact that the 100-week moving average has not really been preached for nearly 3 years (absent the short-lived March 2020 liquidity event) supports the theory that we have been in an ongoing bull market since 2019... while at the same time, the use of those kinds of longer term moving averages, such as the 100-WMA.. does end up serving as a lagging indicator to tell us where we have been rather than where we might be going, so in that regard, if the 100-week moving average ends up getting breached for a decent amount of time, then we might be able to proclaim that the bull market may well be over and we are in a bear market - for however long that new status of a bear market might end up lasting.

So, then the 200-week moving average becomes the likely extreme bottom for when we end up being in a bear market, and currently the 200-week moving average is just moving above $21,500. 

You can see the historical 200-week moving average prices here.

For sure since early 2021, there have been quite a few folks proclaiming that bitcoin has to get some kind of a correction back down to the 200-week moving average, and holy shit.. the 200-week moving average has more than doubled in the time that those proclamations have been being made..

Even though quite a few more finanancialization tools have been introduced into bitcoin (including but not limited to futures/options products) that have been allowing for the naked shorting of bitcoin, so there is likely some truth to the matter that some of those tools can be effective in keeping bitcoin prices down.

Historically, those same kinds of tools have been successful in keeping PM prices down ( such as gold), while at the same time, bitcoin is a different kind of asset than PMs such as gold in terms of the ability to easily claim possession and to verify it without expensive third-party processes.. so in that regard, some of the bitcoin shorters and those who do not have the bitcoin that they proclaim to have (or that they are using in their various bets) may well get caught with their pants down in terms of their inabilities to cover the value of the coins that they are betting as if they had them.. which are ultimately client coins.,. but if they do not have them to give to clients, then there could end up being some pretty BIG wreckenings that are not are not really resolvable.. and maybe even some of the institutions/governments might not be ready, willing or able to cover those kinds of games that rich folks believe that they can get away with largely based on the fact that they have been getting away with that kind of fuckery for a decently long time.. ... so surely who knows if such wreckening scenarios will end up playing out or not.. even though I personally believe that there continues to be greater dangers in bitcoin than in other asset classes for the rich and/or even governments to be fucking around with trying to hold bitcoin prices down through those kinds of financial instruments (or even new variations) that have worked for them historically.

I suppose that my punchline is merely just to watch one stage at a time and perhaps there continues to be some questions about whether the 100-week moving average is going to be breached.. and if it is breached, does that 100-week moving average start to serve as resistance (rather than support) which largely would just mean if the BTC price were to be able to stay below the 100-week moving average for any kind of meaningful length of time beyond a few weeks, that is if it even were to get there.  I have my doubts, but I don't want to be caught off guard in terms of presuming too much regarding where the BTC price might go and how long it might stay there.

It was merely a shower thought, don't take them seriously. Plus I'm the stupid one in the forum, you know that. Hahaha.

Back to our favorite sport, talking about/debating/guessing Bitcoin's price, I believe the next bear narrative might be guessing when and where the DIP might end to find a good price-point to start buying, instead of the old "Bitcoin is dead" narrative which was common during the last bear market.

It seems to me that merely investing in bitcoin, you could end up doing or motivated partially by all three simultaneously...

that is trading

investing

and

engaging in a revolution



Of course, there are many of us including but not limited to yours truly and likely you too Wind_FURY who tend to want to think about bitcoin as an investment and a long term investment.

Surely, you and I have some disagreements regarding how much emphasis to give to buying on the dips versus engaging in a kind of pure DCA - and I am not really opposed to attempting to do both, even though you Wind_FURY seem to believe that bitcoin investors should attempt to understand their investment sufficiently enough in order to be able to identify when dips are happening and to attempt to take advantage of such dips in order to be able to both acquire more BTC on the dip but not to spend as much of their fiat prior to when the dip occurs.

It seem to me that the engaging in a revolution part does not necessarily need to be present from the start or even a sole motivation, but it could be part of the motivation to be into bitcoin and maybe even part of the reason to hold a larger amount of investment into bitcoin because there is a belief that bitcoin is changing the world in meaningful ways.  When I talk to newbies about bitcoin, I don't necessarily start with talks regarding how bitcoin is a revolution, but sometimes the conversation will go in that direction. .and at the same time, I do believe that a lot of folks could establish quite strong investment theses into bitcoin without even necessarily believing that bitcoin is a revolution - even though it does kind of seem that the more deeply anyone attempts to understand and appreciate bitcoin's contribution to society, there is going to be some likely increased understanding regarding bitcoin's revolutionary angle.

Actually another thing about the revolutionary angle is that when you really start to understand the power of bitcoin and the fact that it was designed in such a way to be able to be somewhat resilient to attacks from state actors and even powerful private actors, there is a kind of "holy shit" appreciation in regards to the power of that kind of system and amazement in regards to the fact that anything like that could really be designed, and perhaps part of the lack of understanding that so many normies no coiners have in regards to bitcoin remains their skepticism in regards to believing that governments are more powerful than they are in terms of being able to control (or even stop) bitcoin if they were to not want bitcoin, so that angle that challenges so many perceptions (and conceptions) regarding how the world works remains something that is so hard to wrap our heads around.. even if we have been in bitcoin for a long time, many of us continue to have doubts in regards towards bitcoin's various resiliencies that are somewhat embedded into its already genius design... and also a lot of luck that so many of the basic design components have not been undermined in any kind of meaningful nor substantial way that would cause bitcoin to lose its resiliency angle within its design and how it operates every 10 minutes producing another block and no one can stop it.. hahahahaha  that's powerful.

Shower thought. Are we "just" trading or investing? The more understanding of the protocol you have, and the more and more insights you develop, it becomes something more than investing. I don't know what to call it, but it's a "Revolution". Because what we're HODLing, is a unit in a technology that changes the balance of power. Don't tell anyone that you're a Bitcoiner.

That's a sound strategy if you're an investor who's managing a very large portfolio. For plebs like us, and especially if you want a hedge against a non-elected cabal in control of monetary systems, the HODL is the best path in my opinion.

Bitcoin is slowly pricing in new information everytime/everywhere when it survives market crashes, and chugs along after other problems political, legal, or technical. BUT the true underlying nature of Bitcoin has not been priced in yet. Zoom out, and always HODL ser. Don't make it easy for the billionaires to take your Bitcoin away from you.

What do you mean, Epaper?   If there is a longer investment timeline instead of considering selling in the short term, then is it going to matter very much if BTC today might be purchased at $40k, $30k or $50k?  Sure, buying at lower prices gives more options, yet is there any kind of way to really know which way the BTC price might be going in the short-term? 

Maybe part of your concern about selling target is that you consider the premise of this thread to be incomplete since this thread is largely presuming longer term investing such as 4-10 years or longer, so is not really contemplating shorter term selling price targets - which you seem to be presuming is lacking in the way of considering investing into BTC.

So if we already are considering the longer term, how are we going to know which way the BTC price might be moving, except by looking after the fact?   And if we are considering our selling time frame to be 4-10 years or longer, we might just presume that the BTC price has good chances of being higher 4-10years or more from now as compared to its price today... of course, no guarantees, but something that many longer term investors will consider will be to consider possible selling parameters when approaching those dates further down the line and quite a few things (including BTC price) cannot clearly be framed at this time and may also be not very relevant at this time, except for a kind of presumption that BTC prices will be going up relatively speaking an in real terms rather than mere nominal terms.

We are not really going to be able to know with any level of confidence if the BTC might be going up or down inm the short term, will we?

And, do you believe that it makes a difference how we might think about the matter of accumulating BTC in the event that we have zero BTC currently versus if we were to have already bought some BTC earlier?  So the amount of BTC that we have accumulated could be a factor too, especially if considering what we might be doing in the short-term in order to consider accumulating BTC for the longer term, no?

Indeed, for people who are optimistic about bitcoin, choosing a buy the dip and HOLD strategy is a good strategy to add to their portfolio. However, as an investment strategy, of course, buying the dip must be accompanied by controlling risk. One of them is by determining the target selling price when we buy when the price drops.

Cz of binance said that if you cannot hold you cant earn big in crypto. I agree on his statement because i saw Bitcoin price rise drastically from the past untill present.buy the dip and hold is a very simple yet profitable strategy but still people is struggling in terms of holding only few persons has a strong hands to hold that is why only few earn.

Even though it may seem that I had been trying to beat you up about including more sophisticated and more complicated theories - including financial instruments, I have no objection towards the employment of those kinds of financial instruments and even more complicated strategies - especially once a person has established their base holdings...

Don't get me wrong also, I hardly give too many shits about whether newbie normies get into bitcoin or not, at least not on a marketing level, because newbie normies have to figure out some of these matters themselves; however, my posts and my commentaries are frequently directed towards providing information that attempts to help newbie normies to both get off of zero and to attempt to get to an accumulation place in bitcoin that is comfortable, which could take many years - likely 4-10 years just to establish base holdings, especially if they are starting from zero or close to zero...   

Of course, more well to do persons who have already established some kind of an investment portfolio can move more quickly at least in terms of already having some amount of value that they can reallocate into bitcoin, which these days I tend to recommend reallocations of 1% to 25% into bitcoin, and for sure there is some responsibility on the individual to figure out where they might feel comfortable in terms of their target reallocation, but even with reallocating, it could take 3-12 months to carry out the reallocating process (to get off of zero) which might employ a combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips... to get to a comfortable target level of BTC allocation.

By the way, I had heard some discussion on a podcast that asserted that anyone with an investment portfolio of $100k or more is kind of elite in the world in terms of being in the top 10% of the richest of the world, so for sure, I understand that sometimes we do need to be receptive to discussions for folks who might be coming to bitcoin with total investment portfolios that are quite a bit less than $100k, and if they can get above $100k they are already feeling quite elite. 

Since March 2020 and all of the money printing shenanigans around the world, I had also updated my consideration of default entry-level fuck you status up to $2 million dollars - though it is probably still quite doable that there are a lot of folks who would consider that they do not need to get anywhere near to $2 million in total value of their investment(s) in order to feel that they have reached entry-level fuck you status.. and maybe even some folks might feel that they are sufficiently there at $100k in portfolio value... so I am not necessarily going to want to disway anyone from coming to their own conclusion regarding what level of wealth accumulation constitutes reaching entry-level fuck you status for themselves.

Even though you, Wind_FURY, have been in bitcoin several years less than me, you are surely involved in bitcoin for long enough that you have been able to bat around a variety of more sophisticated approaches regarding how to plan your BTC accumulation and maybe even how to manage your BTC holdings as compared with the normie newbies to attempt to protect yourself, especially providing insurance for downside BTC price moves.. so surely I cannot disagree with figuring out how to use call options to your advantage - which again, seems to go way beyond the more basic principles of this thread and even my arguments that DCA is more basic than buying on dips and then you are wanting to go even more advanced in your own personal approach, which does seem to almost call for another thread, depending on how you might choose to frame the topic to get people interested in how you are advancing in terms of becoming more sophisticated in your ways of attempting to manage the downside risks of what BTC holdings you have already accumulated.

I'm starting to find it necessary for what I need, but I can always use Deribit although I don't find long term call options that expire for more than one year in their exchange. I'm merely trying to be ready for a March 2020-like crash situation. I believe if there was a long term call option available during that particular crash, with a strike price of $50,000, that would have been a very profitable "gamble".

I think that part of my ongoing point has been to attempt to talk about ways that normal people can get involved in bitcoin in ways that are tailored to their own personal situations, and one of the obstacles remains that a vast majority of folks fail/refuse to get involved in any kind of investment beyond investing in either some kind of personal residential property and/or a 401k - if they have that kind of an option through their work - and even many jobs do not even have such options - because getting into a stable job is also not really something that can be expected.

So in order to attempt to appeal to the "everyman,"  I am very much into figuring out ways that people can just get off of zero in terms of the amounts that they have invested into bitcoin, and surely just getting off of zero is a good start,, and thereafter to get some kind of an approach to bitcoin that allows them to get something like 1% to 25% of their investment portfolio into bitcoin.

Now, once they establish their bitcoin base, then they can maybe get more fancy... but I still think that getting their shit together with the base remains the first step.. and then can figure out some of the details of how they might want to be more fancy, later.  

The base case is dollar cost averaging (buying on dips is acceptable for sure), but in my thinking buying on dips goes beyond the base case and is more sophisticated and complicated.  Yeah, sure some people are ready, willing and able to employ a more sophisticated strategy, but I still think that it is way better to appeal to the base case and to make sure that people have their basics in a good place before expecting them to do something more complicated and requiring more study into the matter (ie having to attempt to figure out whether we are in a dip or not.. nearly impossible to do for any newbie, and not even easy for many of us who have been in the space for a long time).



Nothing wrong with getting even more sophisticated in your approach or even adding trading and various financial instruments - whether they involve shitcoins or not.  I have never taken the position that you cannot make money on shitcoins or getting involved in various shitcoin systems, but in my thinking you still need to make sure that you are not getting too distracted with how you spend your time and your money.... the younger you are or maybe the more that you are interested in dabbling into various kinds of smoke and mirror topics, the more that you might be able to risk some of your bitcoin investment into various shitcoin projects - but I would also be careful of trying to consider them as anything even close to bitcoin - even if there might be a variety of ways to potentially increase your value by gambling and putting money into those various products. Seems to also go beyond the topic of this thread, for sure.

As a financial hedge, I still believe it's better to wait for the DIP, but as a hedge against a non-elected cabal who might/are making mistakes concerning the monetary system, I agree, don't delay and HODL some now.

I'm currently taking a free course on basic options trading, and while researching about options exchanges, I discovered a decentralized options exchange built on Ethereum. I'm starting to believe that some altcoins might not be actual "shitcoins", and they might actually be useful specifically for wealth-building.

I will agree with you about the part that it is really NOT easy to attempt to show someone that bitcoin is likely one of the most asymmetrical bet to the UPside that anyone can make while at the same time asserting that the person (audience) has to take complete responsibility for their own investment decisions. 

Sometimes, I am not sure if I am the one who has been dissuading my acquaintances in real life to invest in bitcoin because so few actually choose to either invest into bitcoin or even to investigate afterwards.  Actually when years go by, I can tell that my message had sunk in because frequently I am credited with "I should have listened to you, and invested into bitcoin when you told me x years earlier." 

So, then the assumption in the then current conversation becomes that bitcoin has already pumped up so much that it no longer makes sense to invest into bitcoin, and almost always, I say get started right away.. don't delay.. if you do not have any bitcoin, then figure out your finances and start buying BTC regularly.. even if it is ONLY a small amount, and do not get distracted with shitcoins.  Almost no one listens.  And, what can I do?  in some sense the audience (no coiner) needs to be ready, and I am not going to pressure the audience or attempt to twist their arm.

Although deep inside of me doesn't believe, or doesn't want me to believe, that there are no guarantees, I believe saying that there actually are NO guarantees is the right thing to do. Especially the newbies. 2019 was a very different experience, I was very enthusiastic in telling everyone "BUY NOW", but I had much to learn, and still have much to learn.